Skip to comments.Did the Winter of 2014 Cause the GDP Slowdown? That's a Snow Job
Posted on 06/07/2014 11:00:06 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Economists, investment analysts, and politicians have spent much of 2014 bemoaning the terrible economic effects of the winter of 2014. The cold and snow have been continuously blamed for the lackluster job market, disappointing retail sales, tepid business investment and, most notably, much slower than expected GDP growth. Given how optimistic many of these forecasters had been in the waning months of 2013, when the stock market was surging into record territory and the Fed had finally declared that the economy had outgrown the need for continued Quantitative Easing, the weather was an absolutely vital alibi. If not for the excuse of the bad weather, the entire narrative of a sustainable recovery would have been proven false.
Remarkably, this optimism was largely undiminished when the preliminary estimate for first quarter GDP came in at a shocking minus one percent annualized. This number, almost four percentage points lower than the forecasts from the end of 2013, hinted at an economy on a path toward recession. Still, the experts brushed off the report as a weather-related anomaly.
In contrast, I spent the better part of the last five months arguing that the weather was a straw man. I saw a fundamentally weak and contracting economy being artificially propped up by Fed stimulus, illusory accounting, and massive federal deficit spending. However, while it is difficult to precisely measure the effects of bad weather on the economy, a fresh look at the historical data does tell me that a bad winter usually has an economic effect, but not nearly enough to support the oversize excuses being made by our leading pundits.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearmarkets.com ...
In the Era of Obama, nothing bad that happens can be blamed on the policies of this administration.
Anything bad that happens must be blamed on some outside force, or some events that were unpredictable and unexpected.
We are NOT to blame economic problems on the economic policies of this administration.
Karl Roves weather machine and the Bush winter?
If you’re going a to blame ATMs for unemployment, you might as well blame the weather for a recession.
Mr. Schiff is the MAN.
It’s Bush’s fault or the Tea Party’s fault, unless it’s Israel’s fault. For all “it”
I had no idea Bush could control the weather too.
So long as we live in a world with weather, Republicans, Christians, white males, Rush Limbaugh, the Bush family or any Republican that has ever held office, Fox News, talk radio, free speech, the American flag or anyone who feels patriotic, corporations, small businessmen, or entrepreneurs, the left will have someone or something else to blame for its epic failures. Like Stalin, Mao, Castro, Ho and Kim Jong Il, they consider themselves and their belief system to be infallible.
Scouts Out! Cavalry Ho!