Skip to comments.Investment & Finance Thread (June 8 edition)
Posted on 06/08/2014 11:38:26 AM PDT by expat_panama
Winding down the end of the first half of 2014 (dang, --already??) we can say we're looking (from here) at six months of getting no where, or we can also say we've built a solid base for long term growth.
In terms of sectors (from here) this year's been generally showing these same slow but steady gains throughout:
Funny how we were just talking the other day about how nice a bit more boredom would be, although with negative interest rates, negative gdp, and mid-term elections five months ahead that may not be on...
This is the thread where folks swap ideas on savings and investment --here's a list of popular investing links that freepers have posted here and tomorrow morning we'll go on with our--
Open invitation continues always for idea-input for the thread, this being a joint effort works well. Keywords: financial, WallStreet, stockmarket.
Keep an eye on this speculative stock. MNKD Mankind. They are close to bringing a new inhale-able insulin to market. Do your own due diligence on it but it might be a long term winner. The Founder of Mannkind is Alfred Mann. He was the creator of the Insulin pump. He later sold that company to Medtronic. This could be a life changing drug for the Diabetic community.
Last week very high volume avg over 25,000,000 shares very active short action.
Anybody else rolling this stock.
I’m picking up some BDC’s, with some dry powder to add more if there is another leg down into the June 27 removal from the Russell indices.
87% BullishBased on 2.6K Tweets.
FDA said the review could finish in July; wondering if congressional Dems are still at war with drug profits...
Belden as in St. Louis based BLD. tell me more and why.
Expat. Looks almost too good to be true. But Alfred Mann is a proven winner.
No, no a thousand times no. You can't make me. I only asked a question about which stock.
I did not write this but agree with it.
Some interesting numbers from the Wall Street Journal (Dec. 2013):
“...the number of diabetic patients has continued growing from 246 million in 2007 to 382 million in 2013 at a compound annual growth rate of 7.6%. And insulin as the important diabetes medication has also seen increasing market size.
In 2012 the global insulin market size reached US $20.8 billion, a year-on-year rise of 12.9%, basically monopolized by Novo Nordisk, Sanofi and Eli Lilly, which altogether accounted for 88.7% of market share.
Being the biggest diabetes power in the world, China currently has 98.4 million patients, accounting for about 25.8% of the world’s total. With the maturing of national health insurance system and improvement of economic level, the Chinese insulin drug market size has been on the rise, with the CAGR in 2007-2012 up to 25.4%, well above that of the global insulin market size, and it is expected to maintain a CAGR of at least 15% in the next few years.”
The size of this market is staggering, almost too large to fathom and if inhaled Afreza is approved why would any diabetic want to use the old needle based insulin?
Mannkind is really onto something here, a 25 billion dollar market growing in double digits every year. This will be a game changer, a new paradigm in diabetic control.
Right now, without approval and obviously nothing in sales, investors have made Mannkind almost a 4 billion dollar company with a price per share around $9, that’s bigger than U.S Steel!
A year from now, Mannkind can easily be the next Tesla type breakout stock of the year. It could be trading at $65 per share. And by the end of 2016, we can be looking at $250 per share.
1. FDA decision comes by July 15th or sooner.
2. Partnership announcement with a major pharmaceutical company shortly thereafter (by August 15th).
3. First sales reports in Q2 or Q3 in 2015.
4. First year of sales reports by Q2 or Q3 in 2016.
Another writer thinks the following:
MNKD is a short killer. There are much better stocks out there to short. This one is just too dangerous. There are numerous catalysts:
1. FDA approval
2. Partnership announcement
3. Overseas approval (huge!)
4. Massive revenue growth due the size of the diabetes market.
The other stocks you compare MNKD to don’t operate in the diabetes space and aren’t fundamental game changers like going from a needle to a inhalable device which is the only inhalable insulin on this planet. MNKD has the market for inhalable insulin all to itself. The revenue growth that could come, and quickly, is staggering.
So do your due diligence but MNKD might be a winner.
Alfred Mann foundation
It's a beautiful Monday morning with nice flat futures trading --well, indexes off a bit but metals are up a bit. Remember last Friday's low volume uptick for stocks is a traditional sign of profit taking today. The Yahoo econ report calendar has today empty; morning stack'o'stuff:
Email from NYSE president this morning to all companies listed on NYSE. (I’d like to get Brad Katsuyama and Michael Lewis’s take on some of this language)
My name is Tom Farley and I recently began my new role as the President of the New York Stock Exchange after spending the past six months as Chief Operating Officer of the NYSE. Prior to these roles, I spent many years at Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the NYSE. ICE is known for innovation and leadership in technology but most of all for our focus on the customer. I am honored to lead the NYSE and want to express our entire teams commitment to delivering on your needs and continuing to earn your trust. Because Im not new to the NYSE or to the exchange business, Ive established an ambitious set of objectives and Id like to preview a few areas of focus in the months ahead.
As you may be aware, there is a robust dialogue taking place about the opportunity to improve the US stock market structure. As the leading venue in the world for capital raising, we believe these changes are vitally important for maintaining a vibrant capital market that maintains investor confidence. The New York Stock Exchange is offering solutions to lead this evolution. Our goal is simple: reduce the level of complexity of the US stock market. Reduced complexity will support increased confidence and participation in the stock market and ensure that you, our issuers, have the most robust price discovery for your companys stock as possible. We will continue to advocate for change with your interests in mind and look forward to working with you and other market participants to seize the opportunity that this debate has provided.
Simultaneously, we are taking unilateral actions to reduce complexity on our markets by streamlining our trading technology, reducing the number of order types and opposing any new efforts to further fragment liquidity. We are also investing in the trading floor to ensure the best-in-class technology is available to Designated Market Makers who maintain consistent two-sided quotes and dampen intraday volatility to the benefit of our issuers.
Our goal of reducing complexity extends beyond our market structure-related efforts. We are also your advocate in Washington, DC and elsewhere to encourage sensible policies for public companies that will allow you to focus on your core mission of running your businesses. Our advocacy efforts have been productive over the past several years. For example, the JOBS Act has benefited thousands of companies since it was passed into law in April 2012, resulting in significant opportunities to increase capital raising and reduce regulatory complexity for new issuers. We are also focused on governance and compliance, because weve heard from you that these evolving areas are increasingly key topics in the boardroom. There is much more work to do and I look forward to meeting you and learning where we can lend our voice and leadership to support prudent, pro-business policy objectives.
We are also excited to introduce new NYSE branding today. Based around our important trading floor, the New York Stock Exchange combines the best of human intelligence and technological sophistication to provide the best market quality available today for equity securities. The new brand design was inspired by our customers preference for our unique market model and represents the pillars on the facade of our iconic building, which houses the trading floor. The brand is as reflective of our future as it is of our heritage and represents that we are always looking ahead to whats next for our customers.
On a personal note, Id like to thank the former head of the NYSE, Duncan Niederauer, both for his service at the NYSE as well as for his leadership and counsel over the past six months as Ive transitioned into my new role.
Together with Scott Cutler and the Client Service team, I am dedicated to serving you. We value your business and appreciate your trust, and look forward to strengthening our partnership in the years to come. Please dont hesitate to let me know if you have any feedback. You can either respond to this email or give me a call at 212-748-4208.
I’ve coined a new term for our era now.....”stagvestment”
If we're seriously talking federal executive policy, then here're the OPM numbers:
What I'm seeing is that first Obama's no help at all w/ federal employment and second that federal employment's not the problem anyway.
hmmm. In this new techno age it's difficult to see how anyone can stop others from making the kinds of trade contracts they want. Maybe he's talking redundancy.
The public sector grew during Mr. Carter's term (up 1,304,000), during Mr. Reagan's terms (up 1,414,000), during Mr. G.H.W. Bush's term (up 1,127,000), during Mr. Clinton's terms (up 1,934,000), and during Mr. G.W. Bush's terms (up 1,744,000 jobs).
However the public sector has declined significantly since Mr. Obama took office (down 710,000 jobs). These job losses have mostly been at the state and local level, but more recently at the Federal level. This has been a significant drag on overall employment.
Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/06/public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs.html#TKuI0glbyjxfma2b.99
Here's Federal by itself:
“providing liquidity” is the phrase HFT’s use to justify their place in the market.
Ah, thanks --so McBrides's association of Presidents w/ public sector jobs is misleading and bogus because we can't say GHW Bush increased hiring by Yolo County California. Let's compare the quoted McBride numbers with the Fed's BLS numbers in your post and the OPM numbers in my post:
My thinking is that the BLS numbers are only civilian payroll --that would explain why they differ from OPM numbers..
lol! While that is technically true, it's a bit like saying "staying alive" is the phrase people use to justify breathing.
Given that all the major exchanges sell access to their matching engine to HFT firms for huge sums of money it’s a bit of a co-dependent breathing relationship :-)
DJIA & S&P staking out new highs 8D
There’s a thread about the price of awl being too high.
A radio report just said oil is surging, up today more than $1, above $104/bbl. That looks like WTI price/bbl.
Maybe later today we'll have a thread about water being too wet. It's true that priced in 2014$ we had oil at $40/barrel for decades and then from '04 to '07 it renotched @ $100/barrell, but that's not news.
Weird. The title of the thread is “There’s No Justification for Crude Oil Prices in the Stratosphere”.
Bob Brinker keeps recommending the DJIA total stock index. I think it's from Vanguard which Scottrade last I looked said not available. It's costs $3,000 min (he told a lady last night) to get in. I heard Vanguard commissions aren't too bad.
Still rather stick with Scottrade but have gotten cold feet and no time to do the home work, been doing other things.
That's not a problem, with Scottrade you can own shares in Vanguard (and other) funds. There's some kind of nominal fee but like I own my VFINX in my Scottrade IRA account. Call them up and they'll 'splain which keys to mash.
There's another thought though, it's that instead of buying shares in a DJIA fund w/ a $3k min, you can also just buy shares in an exchange traded fund. I got wise to that idea when I was helping my daughter set up her IRA so she saved some money by paying just the ETF commission and no fund fees. At their website they got an ETF screener that should be able to pop up some ETF that emulates the Dow. Something else is that the min. balance becomes just the cost of a share.
Ah, missed that part. Never mind then...
I couldn’t figure out why XBI jumped so much this morning but I guess IDIX was the reason
Like That Idenix Deal ? Owners of These ETFs Do
If you want to invest in the Dow w/ scottrade just buy shares in DIA —it’s an etf that goes for about $170/share and it tracks the Dow exactly (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DIA&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=^DJI)
Fidelity has some great ETF funds that mirror the biggies with lower entry princess.
For many years I had an account w/ Fidelity and was quite satisfied; then about ten years ago I got mad at them and moved. Can’t remember just what it was that ticked me off but there are so many other great brokerages that it doesn’t matter much.
Seems yesterday's mild gains in mixed volume have led us to morning futures traders moving from stock indexes to metals. Reports this week begin with Wholesale Inventories and Job Openings; some headlines:
No way around it, there really are a lot of positive signs.
Amazing, yesterday's stock indexes ended flat --same prices same volume as before. This mornings futures are working on profit taking and that whatever day the official 'uptrend' continues, it's not looking like today. Then again, today we got Crude Inventories, Treasury Budg, and the Mortgage Index ahead of eight reports tomorrow, so hang on...
Reuters Global stocks slip from peaks, euro dips
Is Gold Ready to Bounce? June 10, 2014 Chad Karnes. Gold and silver have been all over the map in 2014. Through February, they were both up over 10% and outperforming stocks. Since then, they have... Read More
U.K. Unemployment Falls; Payrolls Surge to Record High
Money managers are unhappy because 70% of them are lagging the S&P 500 and see the end of another quarter approaching. Economists are unhappy because they do not know what to believe: this months forecast of a strong economy or last months forecast of a weak economy. Technicians are unhappy because the market refuses to correct and gets more and more extended. Foreigners are unhappy because due to their underinvested status in the U.S., they have missed the biggest double-play (a big currency move plus a big stock market move) in decades. The public is unhappy because they just plain missed out on the party after being scared into cash after the crash. It almost seems ungrateful for so many to be unhappy about a market that has done so well ... Unhappy people would prefer the market to correct to allow them to buy and feel happy, which is just the reason for a further rise. Frustrating the majority is the markets primary goal.
Also, UK unemployment dropped to a 5 year low. Damn Obama is cooking the book everywhere!
-——Frustrating the majority is the markets primary goal.——
Which is why being a contrarian is the way to go
This quote is from 1989... Being contrarian at that point would have cost you a 350% return over the next ten years :-)
Frustrating the majority is the markets primary goal.
If the majority is frustrated then it's because the majority wants to be frustrated. Sure, sometimes it seems like there's some kind of evil "they" that are out to get us, but in the adult world "the market" is us, and each and everyone of us who buys or sells things is setting market prices.
What still remains is the fact that we're acting as a group in a way that we're individually not understanding --hence the frustration and the disappointment. My take is maybe it's time we admit what we 'know' may not be true and a bit of learning is in order. That, and we can also have fun enjoying the circus...
Whoa, I'm having another deja vu attack again!!!
Futures are really heading south —crash time anyone?
The world bank lowered their estimates.