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FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: Toss-Up or Tilt GOP?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast-toss-up-or-tilt-gop/ ^ | June 8, 2014 | Nate Silver

Posted on 06/09/2014 6:34:57 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2

The new forecast is for a Republican gain of 5.7 seats. So it’s shifted ever so slightly — by one-tenth of a seat — toward being a toss-up. Still, if asked to place a bet at even odds, we’d take a Republican Senate.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: blogpimp; elections; senate
This is going to be close, and will require getting everything right. Help GOTV!
1 posted on 06/09/2014 6:34:57 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2
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Comment #2 Removed by Moderator

To: Eccl 10:2

Isn’t it too close to overcome the Demonrat fraud drive?


3 posted on 06/09/2014 6:39:28 AM PDT by luvbach1 (We are finished. It will just take a while before everyone realizes it.)
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To: Eccl 10:2

I want 88 conservative senators, 3 RINOs, 9 Demon Rats....just to remind people what they think.


4 posted on 06/09/2014 6:41:14 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper
I want 88 conservative senators, 3 RINOs, 9 Demon Rats....just to remind people what they think.

Lol.

5 posted on 06/09/2014 6:43:55 AM PDT by cloudmountain
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To: Eccl 10:2

The lesson for the GOPe for this election is to run against Obama and win. But don’t count on the GoPe doing it as they are terrified of being called racists.


6 posted on 06/09/2014 6:45:49 AM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (Haven't you lost enough freedoms? Support an end to the WOD now.)
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To: Eccl 10:2

Given the geometric progression of Obama F***ups that’s a safe bet.


7 posted on 06/09/2014 6:46:29 AM PDT by AU72
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To: Eccl 10:2

I think Terri Land is going to beat the democrat in Michigan this time. She’s a well known pro and former MI secretary of state and Peters is an unknown congressman who is being hammered with great ads.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgmOOimCym4&list=UUCSw2tl4H1eO1R—aXF-MYg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgREGcJ-OTc&list=UUCSw2tl4H1eO1R—aXF-MYg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dc_AAje-4l0&list=UUCSw2tl4H1eO1R—aXF-MYg&index=7


8 posted on 06/09/2014 6:47:32 AM PDT by cripplecreek (Remember the River Raisin.)
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I would agree with most of the above analysis.

The GOP without trouble should be able to take away the following seats from the Dems:

1) SD
2) AK
3) AR
4) LA
5) MT
6) WV
7) NC

They have a reasonable shot in the following states:

1) IA
2) CO
3) MI
4) VA
5) NH

They have an outside shot in the following states:

1) OR
2) MN

KY and GA should not even be in play IMHO and whoever wins the MS runoff wins the election IMHO.


9 posted on 06/09/2014 6:56:27 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: Eccl 10:2

While it is all a little meaningless as in 2016 the Dems are where the GOP is now ... defending a TON of seats in Red States (Blue obviously in Red States) I stick by my prediction from months ago it’s 60-40 the GOP is one seat up after November. Not that it really matters as the GOP doesn’t have the WH.


10 posted on 06/09/2014 6:57:15 AM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

No shot in MN.


11 posted on 06/09/2014 7:00:53 AM PDT by ButThreeLeftsDo (Learn To Search. Ask Me How.)
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

Cotton is a question mark for the Senate.


12 posted on 06/09/2014 7:10:24 AM PDT by AceMineral (Some people are slaves of their own stupidity.)
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To: ButThreeLeftsDo

Caligula appointed his horse to the Roman Senate.

MN upped the ante by “electing” (actually stealing) Al Franken-—a horse’s ass to the US Senate.

Hopefully, with a reasonably competent candidate, MN could correct this terrible mistake.

In presidential elections, MN is the bluest of blue states. However, it does periodically elect GOP US Senators, especially in midterm elections when conditions are more favorable to GOP candidates in that state.


13 posted on 06/09/2014 7:11:54 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: AceMineral

If the GOP could take out Lincoln in the increasingly GOP leaning AR, it should be able to take out Pryor with a solid candidate. And Cotton is very solid!!!!!


14 posted on 06/09/2014 7:13:29 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: SoFloFreeper

I want 88 conservative senators, 3 RINOs, 9 Demon Rats....just to remind people what they think.

55,56, maybe even 58 Republican Senators is still a Democrat Senate with all the reach across the aisle and share control nonsense.


15 posted on 06/09/2014 7:28:22 AM PDT by taterjay
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To: ButThreeLeftsDo
No shot in MN.

You don't think Franken can be beaten?

He only won because of the wave for Obama (and against Bush), and counting the votes until they could "find" enough additional votes for him. Or is his challenger not up to it? I would think it would only take a single debate to show Al is clueless.

As I remember, Al continued his sophomoric antics after election: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGXYHJVQUOY. Unfortunately, it wasn't caught on video, but he did acknowledge it and apologized to McConnell.

Maybe a wave of disgust against Obama will help his opponent. Back in the 70's, a similar reaction elected TWO Republican Senators and Governor: "Minnesota Massacre".

16 posted on 06/09/2014 7:32:28 AM PDT by justlurking (tagline removed, as demanded by Admin Moderator)
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To: Eccl 10:2

Take it to the bank, the pubbies will not take the senate.


17 posted on 06/09/2014 7:52:33 AM PDT by kenmcg (b)
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To: Eccl 10:2

Well if it’s that close we better get ready to lose.

With all the fraud and IRS targeting we don’t stand a chance.

Yes, I am that pessimistic.


18 posted on 06/09/2014 7:55:11 AM PDT by unixfox (Abolish Slavery, Repeal the 16th Amendment)
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To: Eccl 10:2

If the GOP takes control of the Senate by a slim margin someone will make an “historic” party change and caucus with the Dems. In this cycle the likely traitors are Collins, Murkowski, Heller, Kirk, Graham, and/or McCain.


19 posted on 06/09/2014 7:57:21 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.)
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To: Eccl 10:2

I could care less what Nate Silver thinks. He was in on the Democrats fraud in 2012 - he was only “right” because he knew each and every state they would steal!

I’m utterly convinced the Senate would be under GOP control already were it not for the fraud. Remember we only needed to win a few states last time and somehow lost 2 despite the disastrous president.


20 posted on 06/09/2014 8:01:26 AM PDT by Dave346
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To: Eccl 10:2

Doesn’t matter. Nothing will get done the next two years anyway.


21 posted on 06/09/2014 8:02:38 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Eccl 10:2
Seriously???... It won't matter so long as most GOP candidates are really demoncraps in poorly crafted conservative clothing labeling themselves "republicans." A fallen angel is still the spawn of his/her father the devil (the father of lies) regardless what he/she would call him/herself.

Naaaah.... This country suffered a mortal head-shot when it allowed the antichrist to occupy the White House. Now we are simply watching prophecy being fulfilled at an unbelievably, uncanny rate. Scripture is now more of a news source than any media outlet on the planet.

Look up people for your redemption draweth nigh.

22 posted on 06/09/2014 8:09:36 AM PDT by Whats-wrong-with-the-truth
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To: taterjay
"55,56, maybe even 58 Republican Senators is still a Democrat Senate with all the reach across the aisle and share control nonsense."

I agree completely.

23 posted on 06/09/2014 8:11:28 AM PDT by Whats-wrong-with-the-truth
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To: Eccl 10:2

GOP-E is using the Romney strategy: coast.

It’s June. They should be firing up the base.

Instead, they’re busy attacking conservatives....also the Romney strategy.

Conclusion: the GOP-E does NOT want to win.


24 posted on 06/09/2014 8:13:48 AM PDT by xzins ( Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for victory!)
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To: Wyatt's Torch

Exactly. Nothing can get done. That’s the point. BHO will still be in there for another two years and still has his veto pen handy.

Obamacare can ONLY be repealed by electing a GOP president, House and Senate dedicated to repealing it. Period.

But you lay the ground for taking back the Senate this year when you have most of the opportunities with so many vulnerable Dems occupying US Senate seats in red states.


25 posted on 06/09/2014 8:17:58 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: Dave346

“He was in on the Democrats fraud in 2012 - he was only “right” because he knew each and every state they would steal.”

He knows which ones they will steal this time too.


26 posted on 06/09/2014 8:36:35 AM PDT by Luke21
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To: Eccl 10:2

Folks with all the scandals,the IRS especially,targeting Americans because the President did not like the citizen united decision.
Plus all the others and you tell me its a toss up?
Folks forget about it,this should be be an absolute slaughter,the country is finished


27 posted on 06/09/2014 8:47:52 AM PDT by ballplayer
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
But you lay the ground for taking back the Senate this year when you have most of the opportunities with so many vulnerable Dems occupying US Senate seats in red states.

That's an important point.

In 2016, I believe the Republicans will be defending more Senate seats, compared to Democrats. I don't know how many of them are vulnerable. More Democrats vote in Presidential elections, skipping the off-year elections. So, the Republicans have to take advantage of this off-year election to win as many seats as possible in both the House and the Senate, so that any losses in 2016 don't undo it all.

This is a historic opportunity, comparable to the 1994 elections. The Republicans have a huge opportunity, and they are blowing it. They should have a unified message, and promoting it, non-stop. I'm not a big fan of Gingrich, but the Contract for America was an inspiration. We need something like that, again.

Maybe they will get their act together after the primary season. But, instead we hear rumblings that the GOPe will be actively marginalizing the conservative Tea Party wing. If that happens, you might as well "Get Ready for Hillary", because the outcome of 2016 election will be inevitable -- for the same reason McCain and Romney lost.

28 posted on 06/09/2014 8:50:59 AM PDT by justlurking (tagline removed, as demanded by Admin Moderator)
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
They have an outside shot in the following states:
1) OR
2) MN


NEVER HAPPEN - have you ever lived in either of these states? MN is bluest of the blue right up there with CA and NY. OR full of enviros - will never elect a Repub.
29 posted on 06/09/2014 8:53:13 AM PDT by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: Eccl 10:2

>Still, if asked to place a bet at even odds, we’d take a Republican Senate.<

.
Now we have to keep our fingers crossed and hope that the Stupid Party knows what to do with a Senate majority.


30 posted on 06/09/2014 8:53:41 AM PDT by 353FMG
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To: Cheerio

Both are solid blue, I agree.

But both have a history of electing GOP US Senators in the not too distant past.

Also midterm elections are different than presidential elections. In midterm elections, the electorate tends to be significantly smaller, therefore whiter, older, and more conservative than is usually the case in presidential elections.

Further Obamacare is very unpopular in MN and especially in OR where the rollout was an unmitigated disaster.

Just as red states can turn blue, blue states can sometimes turn red.

Arkansas, Kentucky, and West Virginia were staunchly Democrat in the not too distant past.

Oregon, Vermont, and New Hampshire used to be reliably GOP in the not too distant past.


31 posted on 06/09/2014 9:04:22 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines; ButThreeLeftsDo; AceMineral

From what I’ve seen Pryor is up and pounding Cotton hard with negative ads.

The National GOP is lining up to slam McDaniel before the runoff, forget about the damage this will do to him in the fall.

And Joni Ernst is, what, a point or two ahead of that sleezeball loudmouth Braley in the latest polls?

Have to hope for the best but at times it seems the Fifty-Two Percenters who look to the gubmint to survive are in the wheelhouse now.


32 posted on 06/09/2014 9:06:55 AM PDT by Fightin Whitey
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
The election is still five months out and only God knows what events may transpire that will shape voter opinions between now and early November. Obamacare, IRS, and Benghazi stories have pretty much faded from the news cycles in favor of the latest crisis de jour, the Gitmo 5.

Although Congress as a whole may only have an eight percent approval rating, most voters look more favorably on their personal Congress critter. At the moment the only GOPe pickup I see is in WV, with that gain being offset by a loss in Georgia.

33 posted on 06/09/2014 9:19:54 AM PDT by buckalfa (Tilting at Windmills)
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To: Eccl 10:2

We have the two most corrupt and hated men in the senate, running the senate.

Not much has changed, since January...will it after November, is the question:

Weekly Update: DC’s Most Corrupt
http://www.judicialwatch.org/press-room/weekly-updates/weekly-update-dcs-most-corrupt/


34 posted on 06/09/2014 9:23:36 AM PDT by jacknhoo (Luke 12:51. Think ye, that I am come to give peace on earth? I tell you, no; but separation.)
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To: ButThreeLeftsDo

“No shot in MN.

Sadly, I think you are correct. Too many koolaid drinkers here.


35 posted on 06/09/2014 9:32:06 AM PDT by READINABLUESTATE ("If guns cause crime, there must be something wrong with mine." -Ted Nugent)
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To: buckalfa

The GOP will EASILY pick up the Dem held seat in SD.


36 posted on 06/09/2014 9:35:03 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: READINABLUESTATE

If he can steal the election from a popular republican, just think how easy it’s going to be against someone that nobody has heard of.


37 posted on 06/09/2014 9:41:31 AM PDT by ButThreeLeftsDo (Learn To Search. Ask Me How.)
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To: Dave346

May not care how Nate Silver thinks, but it’s worthwhile to look at how he behaves.

About a month ago he came out with a prediction that the GOP would take control of the Senate. He was roundly pilloried (beaten and abused, actually) by Democrats; treated like the typical slave who’d managed to step foot off the plantation.

Now suddenly he’s back showing a slight lean to the Dems retaining. That’s no coincidence: he’s back on the plantation, but still giving himself just enough wiggle room to hedge. I’d read this as things being worse for Dems than he’s willing to admit given the likelihood of suffering another beating.


38 posted on 06/09/2014 9:49:11 AM PDT by tanknetter
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To: buckalfa

Generally speaking, if history is in guide, the party in power tends to lose a number of seats in midterm elections, this is even more pronounced in the sixth year of a presidency, especially when the POTUS’s favorable ratings are below 50%.

Also keep in mind that the electorate in midterm elections generally speaking is more Republican than is the case in presidential elections.


39 posted on 06/09/2014 9:53:17 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

Don’t count on unseating Begitch (D-AK). He is a bona fide Alaskan and knows which buttons to push to get Alaskans on board.

The presumptive R challenger, Sullivan, is widely viewed as a carpetbagger.


40 posted on 06/09/2014 10:17:31 AM PDT by Chuckster (The longer I live the less I care about what you think.)
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To: Chuckster

Begich got in basically on fluke, as the late Sen. Ted Stevens was convicted on charges which were proved to be false.

Not an expert on Alaska politics but I do know that is usually sends Republicans to Congress, has not voted for a Dem presidential candidate since 1964, is very pro drill-baby-drill and is also the home of Sarah Palin.

Given that the party in power tends to lose seats in a midterm election, especially in a state where BHO’s policies and poll ratings are not and have never been favorable, you would think this particular US Senate would be ripe to fall into GOP hands this year.


41 posted on 06/09/2014 10:24:46 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

Cotton hasn’t done himself any favors running for the Senate after just one term in the House.


42 posted on 06/09/2014 1:44:41 PM PDT by AceMineral (Some people are slaves of their own stupidity.)
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