Skip to comments.FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: Toss-Up or Tilt GOP?
Posted on 06/09/2014 6:34:57 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2
The new forecast is for a Republican gain of 5.7 seats. So its shifted ever so slightly by one-tenth of a seat toward being a toss-up. Still, if asked to place a bet at even odds, wed take a Republican Senate.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Isn’t it too close to overcome the Demonrat fraud drive?
I want 88 conservative senators, 3 RINOs, 9 Demon Rats....just to remind people what they think.
The lesson for the GOPe for this election is to run against Obama and win. But don’t count on the GoPe doing it as they are terrified of being called racists.
Given the geometric progression of Obama F***ups that’s a safe bet.
I think Terri Land is going to beat the democrat in Michigan this time. She’s a well known pro and former MI secretary of state and Peters is an unknown congressman who is being hammered with great ads.
I would agree with most of the above analysis.
The GOP without trouble should be able to take away the following seats from the Dems:
They have a reasonable shot in the following states:
They have an outside shot in the following states:
KY and GA should not even be in play IMHO and whoever wins the MS runoff wins the election IMHO.
While it is all a little meaningless as in 2016 the Dems are where the GOP is now ... defending a TON of seats in Red States (Blue obviously in Red States) I stick by my prediction from months ago it’s 60-40 the GOP is one seat up after November. Not that it really matters as the GOP doesn’t have the WH.
No shot in MN.
Cotton is a question mark for the Senate.
Caligula appointed his horse to the Roman Senate.
MN upped the ante by “electing” (actually stealing) Al Franken-—a horse’s ass to the US Senate.
Hopefully, with a reasonably competent candidate, MN could correct this terrible mistake.
In presidential elections, MN is the bluest of blue states. However, it does periodically elect GOP US Senators, especially in midterm elections when conditions are more favorable to GOP candidates in that state.
If the GOP could take out Lincoln in the increasingly GOP leaning AR, it should be able to take out Pryor with a solid candidate. And Cotton is very solid!!!!!
I want 88 conservative senators, 3 RINOs, 9 Demon Rats....just to remind people what they think.
55,56, maybe even 58 Republican Senators is still a Democrat Senate with all the reach across the aisle and share control nonsense.
You don't think Franken can be beaten?
He only won because of the wave for Obama (and against Bush), and counting the votes until they could "find" enough additional votes for him. Or is his challenger not up to it? I would think it would only take a single debate to show Al is clueless.
As I remember, Al continued his sophomoric antics after election: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGXYHJVQUOY. Unfortunately, it wasn't caught on video, but he did acknowledge it and apologized to McConnell.
Maybe a wave of disgust against Obama will help his opponent. Back in the 70's, a similar reaction elected TWO Republican Senators and Governor: "Minnesota Massacre".
Take it to the bank, the pubbies will not take the senate.
Well if it’s that close we better get ready to lose.
With all the fraud and IRS targeting we don’t stand a chance.
Yes, I am that pessimistic.
If the GOP takes control of the Senate by a slim margin someone will make an “historic” party change and caucus with the Dems. In this cycle the likely traitors are Collins, Murkowski, Heller, Kirk, Graham, and/or McCain.
I could care less what Nate Silver thinks. He was in on the Democrats fraud in 2012 - he was only “right” because he knew each and every state they would steal!
I’m utterly convinced the Senate would be under GOP control already were it not for the fraud. Remember we only needed to win a few states last time and somehow lost 2 despite the disastrous president.
Doesn’t matter. Nothing will get done the next two years anyway.
Naaaah.... This country suffered a mortal head-shot when it allowed the antichrist to occupy the White House. Now we are simply watching prophecy being fulfilled at an unbelievably, uncanny rate. Scripture is now more of a news source than any media outlet on the planet.
Look up people for your redemption draweth nigh.
I agree completely.
GOP-E is using the Romney strategy: coast.
It’s June. They should be firing up the base.
Instead, they’re busy attacking conservatives....also the Romney strategy.
Conclusion: the GOP-E does NOT want to win.
Exactly. Nothing can get done. That’s the point. BHO will still be in there for another two years and still has his veto pen handy.
Obamacare can ONLY be repealed by electing a GOP president, House and Senate dedicated to repealing it. Period.
But you lay the ground for taking back the Senate this year when you have most of the opportunities with so many vulnerable Dems occupying US Senate seats in red states.
“He was in on the Democrats fraud in 2012 - he was only right because he knew each and every state they would steal.”
He knows which ones they will steal this time too.
Folks with all the scandals,the IRS especially,targeting Americans because the President did not like the citizen united decision.
Plus all the others and you tell me its a toss up?
Folks forget about it,this should be be an absolute slaughter,the country is finished
That's an important point.
In 2016, I believe the Republicans will be defending more Senate seats, compared to Democrats. I don't know how many of them are vulnerable. More Democrats vote in Presidential elections, skipping the off-year elections. So, the Republicans have to take advantage of this off-year election to win as many seats as possible in both the House and the Senate, so that any losses in 2016 don't undo it all.
This is a historic opportunity, comparable to the 1994 elections. The Republicans have a huge opportunity, and they are blowing it. They should have a unified message, and promoting it, non-stop. I'm not a big fan of Gingrich, but the Contract for America was an inspiration. We need something like that, again.
Maybe they will get their act together after the primary season. But, instead we hear rumblings that the GOPe will be actively marginalizing the conservative Tea Party wing. If that happens, you might as well "Get Ready for Hillary", because the outcome of 2016 election will be inevitable -- for the same reason McCain and Romney lost.
>Still, if asked to place a bet at even odds, wed take a Republican Senate.<
Now we have to keep our fingers crossed and hope that the Stupid Party knows what to do with a Senate majority.
Both are solid blue, I agree.
But both have a history of electing GOP US Senators in the not too distant past.
Also midterm elections are different than presidential elections. In midterm elections, the electorate tends to be significantly smaller, therefore whiter, older, and more conservative than is usually the case in presidential elections.
Further Obamacare is very unpopular in MN and especially in OR where the rollout was an unmitigated disaster.
Just as red states can turn blue, blue states can sometimes turn red.
Arkansas, Kentucky, and West Virginia were staunchly Democrat in the not too distant past.
Oregon, Vermont, and New Hampshire used to be reliably GOP in the not too distant past.
From what I’ve seen Pryor is up and pounding Cotton hard with negative ads.
The National GOP is lining up to slam McDaniel before the runoff, forget about the damage this will do to him in the fall.
And Joni Ernst is, what, a point or two ahead of that sleezeball loudmouth Braley in the latest polls?
Have to hope for the best but at times it seems the Fifty-Two Percenters who look to the gubmint to survive are in the wheelhouse now.
Although Congress as a whole may only have an eight percent approval rating, most voters look more favorably on their personal Congress critter. At the moment the only GOPe pickup I see is in WV, with that gain being offset by a loss in Georgia.
We have the two most corrupt and hated men in the senate, running the senate.
Not much has changed, since January...will it after November, is the question:
Weekly Update: DCs Most Corrupt
“No shot in MN.
Sadly, I think you are correct. Too many koolaid drinkers here.
The GOP will EASILY pick up the Dem held seat in SD.
If he can steal the election from a popular republican, just think how easy it’s going to be against someone that nobody has heard of.
May not care how Nate Silver thinks, but it’s worthwhile to look at how he behaves.
About a month ago he came out with a prediction that the GOP would take control of the Senate. He was roundly pilloried (beaten and abused, actually) by Democrats; treated like the typical slave who’d managed to step foot off the plantation.
Now suddenly he’s back showing a slight lean to the Dems retaining. That’s no coincidence: he’s back on the plantation, but still giving himself just enough wiggle room to hedge. I’d read this as things being worse for Dems than he’s willing to admit given the likelihood of suffering another beating.
Generally speaking, if history is in guide, the party in power tends to lose a number of seats in midterm elections, this is even more pronounced in the sixth year of a presidency, especially when the POTUS’s favorable ratings are below 50%.
Also keep in mind that the electorate in midterm elections generally speaking is more Republican than is the case in presidential elections.
Don’t count on unseating Begitch (D-AK). He is a bona fide Alaskan and knows which buttons to push to get Alaskans on board.
The presumptive R challenger, Sullivan, is widely viewed as a carpetbagger.
Begich got in basically on fluke, as the late Sen. Ted Stevens was convicted on charges which were proved to be false.
Not an expert on Alaska politics but I do know that is usually sends Republicans to Congress, has not voted for a Dem presidential candidate since 1964, is very pro drill-baby-drill and is also the home of Sarah Palin.
Given that the party in power tends to lose seats in a midterm election, especially in a state where BHO’s policies and poll ratings are not and have never been favorable, you would think this particular US Senate would be ripe to fall into GOP hands this year.
Cotton hasn’t done himself any favors running for the Senate after just one term in the House.