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FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: Toss-Up or Tilt GOP?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast-toss-up-or-tilt-gop/ ^ | June 8, 2014 | Nate Silver

Posted on 06/09/2014 6:34:57 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2

The new forecast is for a Republican gain of 5.7 seats. So it’s shifted ever so slightly — by one-tenth of a seat — toward being a toss-up. Still, if asked to place a bet at even odds, we’d take a Republican Senate.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


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KEYWORDS: blogpimp; elections; senate
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This is going to be close, and will require getting everything right. Help GOTV!
1 posted on 06/09/2014 6:34:57 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2
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Comment #2 Removed by Moderator

To: Eccl 10:2

Isn’t it too close to overcome the Demonrat fraud drive?


3 posted on 06/09/2014 6:39:28 AM PDT by luvbach1 (We are finished. It will just take a while before everyone realizes it.)
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To: Eccl 10:2

I want 88 conservative senators, 3 RINOs, 9 Demon Rats....just to remind people what they think.


4 posted on 06/09/2014 6:41:14 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper
I want 88 conservative senators, 3 RINOs, 9 Demon Rats....just to remind people what they think.

Lol.

5 posted on 06/09/2014 6:43:55 AM PDT by cloudmountain
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To: Eccl 10:2

The lesson for the GOPe for this election is to run against Obama and win. But don’t count on the GoPe doing it as they are terrified of being called racists.


6 posted on 06/09/2014 6:45:49 AM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (Haven't you lost enough freedoms? Support an end to the WOD now.)
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To: Eccl 10:2

Given the geometric progression of Obama F***ups that’s a safe bet.


7 posted on 06/09/2014 6:46:29 AM PDT by AU72
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To: Eccl 10:2

I think Terri Land is going to beat the democrat in Michigan this time. She’s a well known pro and former MI secretary of state and Peters is an unknown congressman who is being hammered with great ads.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgmOOimCym4&list=UUCSw2tl4H1eO1R—aXF-MYg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgREGcJ-OTc&list=UUCSw2tl4H1eO1R—aXF-MYg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dc_AAje-4l0&list=UUCSw2tl4H1eO1R—aXF-MYg&index=7


8 posted on 06/09/2014 6:47:32 AM PDT by cripplecreek (Remember the River Raisin.)
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I would agree with most of the above analysis.

The GOP without trouble should be able to take away the following seats from the Dems:

1) SD
2) AK
3) AR
4) LA
5) MT
6) WV
7) NC

They have a reasonable shot in the following states:

1) IA
2) CO
3) MI
4) VA
5) NH

They have an outside shot in the following states:

1) OR
2) MN

KY and GA should not even be in play IMHO and whoever wins the MS runoff wins the election IMHO.


9 posted on 06/09/2014 6:56:27 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: Eccl 10:2

While it is all a little meaningless as in 2016 the Dems are where the GOP is now ... defending a TON of seats in Red States (Blue obviously in Red States) I stick by my prediction from months ago it’s 60-40 the GOP is one seat up after November. Not that it really matters as the GOP doesn’t have the WH.


10 posted on 06/09/2014 6:57:15 AM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

No shot in MN.


11 posted on 06/09/2014 7:00:53 AM PDT by ButThreeLeftsDo (Learn To Search. Ask Me How.)
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

Cotton is a question mark for the Senate.


12 posted on 06/09/2014 7:10:24 AM PDT by AceMineral (Some people are slaves of their own stupidity.)
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To: ButThreeLeftsDo

Caligula appointed his horse to the Roman Senate.

MN upped the ante by “electing” (actually stealing) Al Franken-—a horse’s ass to the US Senate.

Hopefully, with a reasonably competent candidate, MN could correct this terrible mistake.

In presidential elections, MN is the bluest of blue states. However, it does periodically elect GOP US Senators, especially in midterm elections when conditions are more favorable to GOP candidates in that state.


13 posted on 06/09/2014 7:11:54 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: AceMineral

If the GOP could take out Lincoln in the increasingly GOP leaning AR, it should be able to take out Pryor with a solid candidate. And Cotton is very solid!!!!!


14 posted on 06/09/2014 7:13:29 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: SoFloFreeper

I want 88 conservative senators, 3 RINOs, 9 Demon Rats....just to remind people what they think.

55,56, maybe even 58 Republican Senators is still a Democrat Senate with all the reach across the aisle and share control nonsense.


15 posted on 06/09/2014 7:28:22 AM PDT by taterjay
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To: ButThreeLeftsDo
No shot in MN.

You don't think Franken can be beaten?

He only won because of the wave for Obama (and against Bush), and counting the votes until they could "find" enough additional votes for him. Or is his challenger not up to it? I would think it would only take a single debate to show Al is clueless.

As I remember, Al continued his sophomoric antics after election: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGXYHJVQUOY. Unfortunately, it wasn't caught on video, but he did acknowledge it and apologized to McConnell.

Maybe a wave of disgust against Obama will help his opponent. Back in the 70's, a similar reaction elected TWO Republican Senators and Governor: "Minnesota Massacre".

16 posted on 06/09/2014 7:32:28 AM PDT by justlurking (tagline removed, as demanded by Admin Moderator)
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To: Eccl 10:2

Take it to the bank, the pubbies will not take the senate.


17 posted on 06/09/2014 7:52:33 AM PDT by kenmcg (b)
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To: Eccl 10:2

Well if it’s that close we better get ready to lose.

With all the fraud and IRS targeting we don’t stand a chance.

Yes, I am that pessimistic.


18 posted on 06/09/2014 7:55:11 AM PDT by unixfox (Abolish Slavery, Repeal the 16th Amendment)
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To: Eccl 10:2

If the GOP takes control of the Senate by a slim margin someone will make an “historic” party change and caucus with the Dems. In this cycle the likely traitors are Collins, Murkowski, Heller, Kirk, Graham, and/or McCain.


19 posted on 06/09/2014 7:57:21 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.)
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To: Eccl 10:2

I could care less what Nate Silver thinks. He was in on the Democrats fraud in 2012 - he was only “right” because he knew each and every state they would steal!

I’m utterly convinced the Senate would be under GOP control already were it not for the fraud. Remember we only needed to win a few states last time and somehow lost 2 despite the disastrous president.


20 posted on 06/09/2014 8:01:26 AM PDT by Dave346
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