Posted on 06/09/2014 8:51:57 AM PDT by Kenny
Democratic Party officials increasingly say they are convinced that their candidates will beat this year’s tough election cycle, retain the party’s majority in the U.S. Senate and maybe even flip some GOP strongholds from red to blue.
It’s a tall order that would require Democrats to overcome a lopsided 2014 electoral map, the drag of their party’s unpopular president and an almost daily uproar over White House blunders.
But the party’s strategists said they’ve devised a winning formula of keeping Democratic campaigns focused on local issues and not President Obama while demonizing Republican challengers as right-wing extremists or puppets of billionaire activists David and Charles Koch.
That’s why House Democrats are expanding their map of targeted GOP districts and Senate Democrats are eyeing pickups in deep red Kentucky, Georgia and possibly Mississippi.
“In each competitive Senate race right now there is a clear contrast between a Democratic candidate who is focused on creating opportunities for the middle class and is willing to disagree with their own party leadership and a Republican candidate that is beholden to the tea party and Koch brothers,” said Justin Barasky, national press secretary for Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
“That’s what Republican Senate candidates embody up and down the map,” he said.
Democrats dismiss the notion that they are tainted by Mr. Obama’s low approval ratings or the steady stream of bad news and controversies flowing out of the White House. In just the last week, Democrats had to contend with the administration announcing unpopular new environmental rules for power plants, more horror stories from dysfunctional Veterans Affairs hospitals and blowback from Mr. Obama’s prisoner swap of five top Taliban terrorists for U.S. Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...
The people I talk to aren’t ‘clueless’... maybe you need to hang with a better group.
reef,
I agree that voter fraud is a very serious problem for Conservatives.
However, nationally, Democrats actually have a 5% advantage with all eligible voters.
They may cheat, but in most states, they don’t need to cheat.
If they can get their base voters to the polls, they can win elections fair and square against most Conservatives.
The only advantage Conservatives still have is that we have the highest voter turn out in America.
Which is why I'm praying Cochran, Graham, and Cantor lose the primary's. It would be a very strong message.
bump
Speaking of predictions...isn’t it about time for Nancy Pelosi to declare that the Dems will retake the House, and once again make her Speaker..IIRC, she promised it in 2010 and again 2012..
Given the GOP “leadership” has already broadcast their intent to hand back the fillibuster to the Dems, they are correct.
We have a bunch of wimps and idiots, pretending they’d rather pander to the street fighting libs, than do battle on their own terms.
>”The people I talk to aren’t ‘clueless’... maybe you need to hang with a better group”<
I don’t live in a bubble. I wasn’t referring to People I hang around, just people I run into doing my normal daily activities. Only talking to people who agree with you does nothing to educate those that don’t.
Remember, THEY LIVE, and we’re the only ones wearing the Sunglasses.
I think I can, I think I can....NOPE, you need to actually get the votes.
They’re sort of right. If McConnell and Cochran and Graham are all re-elected then if the GOP took control of the Senate how would we know?
I see Iowa as a sure R pickup.
vote democrat, vote islamist.
That’s not why the Democrats lost in 2010 - and they are focused on 2014 turn out because they have NO issues.
It will not work, unless there is a black swan event twixt now and election day.
You are probably correct. If things get tough the Rats will call on their principal advisors Mitch McConnell and John Boehner. They will move right out to piss off their Republican base, pass amnesty, war on the Tea Party and make sure that the country is flooded with Rat dependents and angry conservatives who are demotivated to vote for Quisling leadership.
I think the Republican candidate is quite engaging, so it's possible.
However, 18 months ago, Barack Obama won the state 52%-46%.
5% of his voters were non-white.
If those voters turn out in 2014, the Republican Senate candidate must get 55% of the white vote just to tie.
That will be very hard to do.
So, it all comes down to voter turn out.
You think non-whites and single white women will stay at home in 2014.
I think the Democrats will get those core groups to the polls, and the Republican will lose a close election.
Sorry, that's not correct.
The vote total in 2010 went down 50 million votes from the total in 2008.
NBC used to have all the 2010 exit polls posted, but that link has gone dead, so I can't get the exact ethnic data for you.
However, one thing was perfectly clear in 2010:
In terms of relative percentage, white voters went up, and all other voters went down, compared to 2008.
Since white voters go about 60% Republican, and non-white voters go 80% Democrat, that made a decisive difference.
Nationally, Democrats have a 5% advantage with all ELIGIBLE voters.
If the Democrats turn out at close to the same rate as Republicans in 2010, there is no way we can win the Senate.
Re: “Democrats are focused on 2014 turn out because they have NO issues.”
In case you haven't noticed, Republicans have NO issues, either.
you can’t compare a prez election year turn out to an off year turn out, and yet you did. You need to learn a little more about how these things work.
However, I don't think we have any Republican Favorite Sons running in the so called “competitive” Senate races.
And I don't know about any unique state issues that will swing the needle one way or the other.
Gender and ethnic background are the best predictors of how people will vote.
And, except for the outlier elections in 1994 and 2010, non-whites and single white women have slowly, but steadily, increased their voter participation for the last 20 years.
The rest of the demographic news from 2012-2014 is also very discouraging for Conservatives.
1.5 million new USA citizens.
Most of them won't vote, but those who do will vote 80% for Democrats.
The Death-Birth rate is against us.
Almost 90% of the voters who died were white.
Almost 45% of the new 18-19 year old voters are non-white.
Finally, the voter eligibility rate increased for Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians by 1%-2%.
A year ago I predicted we would win 4 Senate seats in 2014.
I'll stand by that.
No matter what Obama does, the MSM and the Democrat Party have his back.
Ted Cruz is the only Senator who has called for the repeal of ObamaCare.
And, while thousands of Hispanic children run wild at the border, Cantor, Ryan, and Boehner are still quietly negotiating for Amnesty.
Republicans stand for nothing.
Next to nothing is what we will gain in 2014.
You are right about a lot of the demographics, but still not a peep in your posts about the differences between Prez elex and mid term elex.
Ideally, I would compare ethnic and gender distribution between 2006 and 2010.
Since I no longer have that data for either year, I chose to use 2008.
I used 2008 because of the glaring disparity in ethnic and gender distribution between 2008 and 2010.
I claimed that Republicans did very well in 2010 because many non-whites and single white women stayed home.
You said, “No.”
Since my 2010 data source disappeared, from memory:
Relative Percentage, from 2008 to 2010:
White voters - Up 4%
Non-white voters - Down 4%
Female voters - Down 1%
I think that ethnic distribution dovetails nicely with the Democrat share of the popular vote in those two elections:
2008 - 52.9%
2010 - 44.9%
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