Skip to comments.Why Polling Fails - Republicans Couldnít Predict Eric Cantorís Loss
Posted on 06/12/2014 8:44:16 AM PDT by Kenny
ERIC CANTOR wasnt the only person at a loss for words on Tuesday night.
His pollster, McLaughlin & Associates, found itself trying to explain the impossible how a projected 34 percent lead for the House majority leader 12 days before the election could end up an 11-point loss on Election Day to David Brat of the Tea Party in the Virginia Republican primary.
Weve all been there. There isnt a pollster alive me included who hasnt had to take the walk of shame, hat in hand, to explain to an angry client why a predicted outcome simply didnt happen.
Make no mistake: This was a whopper for the ages. McLaughlin didnt merely get it wrong; this was quantitative malpractice a mind-blowing modern-day Dewey Beats Truman moment.
That said, polls cant predict elections. They are essential tools, windows into the minds of a particular audience but they cannot and should not be used as infallible crystal balls.
Trouble is, pollsters are under ever increasing pressure to feed a voracious media beast and provide the answer to that perennial question, Whos gonna win? And therein lies the problem with polls, pollsters and consumers of both.
What is worse, if its true, is the suggestion that the Cantor poll was leaked in order to sabotage the other side by suggesting that the majority leaders lead was insurmountable. In this case, not only was the poll inaccurate, the tactic was inept. It may have created momentum for the other side rather than crushing it, and lends legitimacy to the public skepticism aimed at our craft of late.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
This is the money quote, what polls now do in elections.
you know, if everyone just lied to pollsters, the whole sham industry would collapse
Couldn’t the poll data also be explained by the fact that Democrats could also vote in this primary and did so to oust Cantor?
The coming war is between free men and the indentured sycophants
It was the bad weather. (Eyes rolling)
You don't want EVERYONE to lie to the pollsters.
Just half the folks should lie.
Many of the late 2012 polls were also massively inaccurate.
Repubs were supposed to take the Senate. Instead, they actually lost seats.
Romney was supposed to trounce Obama. Instead, Michelle still gets to eat Kobe beef steaks and take expensive vacations to luxurious locations on the taxpayers’ tab.
it is not likely that there were enough Dem votes to turn the election... Brat did exceedingly well in all the staunchly conservative precincts... Eric Cantor received 8,000 fewer votes this election than his last election... those voters either stayed home or voted for Brat...
i think this polling firm, along with Cantor and his campaign staff, simply phoned it in... i think he/they knew he was not going to win by a large a margin as in the past, but i think he/they thought they could squeak this one out, and deal with growing their support later—once he was Speaker of the House... they were all on autopilot... cruise control...
“No one seems to understand America is becoming American rather than Republican or Democrat.”
I sure hope you’re right, knarf. It’s high time too.
I wonder if the best tactic is to sneak up on these statist so they don’t have time to organize their election machine.
It was the bad weather. (Eyes rolling)
Yes, to quote the quite befuddled, discombobulated Brit Hume as he spoke the night of the election while a member of Megyn Kelly’s panel of experts -— “...well, it rained yesterday”. So the obviously stunned and disappointed Hume tried to blame some rain on Monday for Cantor’s landslide loss on Tuesday.
Some of these folks just don’t have a clue. Despite Kelly’s attempts to guide some of them to the realities on the ground, they simply couldn’t shake their misconceptions that stem from their time, in the New York bubble, being isolated from the “country class”.
I feel like most of the polls are biased and won’t respond to them. How many others won’t either and what is the impact on these polls?
Why I was wondering was due to a map of the districts Brad won I saw on FOX indicating that Brad won the majority of urban precincts. The rural ones voted for Cantor. Obviously, the urban areas have the most population; but they are also the place where there would be a concentration of Democratic voters, too. If there is a true conservative backlash against the Republican establishment, why wouldn’t it show in the rural areas, too?
Just guessing about knarf, but if he is a libertarian, what he means is America is becoming libertarian (he hopes) instead of CONSERVATIVE Repub or Dem. libertarians are the hippies of the right, they are not conservatives.
“Now, as Republicans recover from the shock of his defeat and set about moving forward on a positive path,”
Interesting view. How did Republicans lose? A Republican won a primary against another Republican. (Of course, the Establishment Republicans may have lost.)
Wasn’t overall participation up, by around 20%, from the 2012 primary?
Kinda hard to blame rain when there’s increased turnout.
Cantor was polling the country clubs. This district is not NVA.
The polls failed because they failed to poll the RAT crossover voters!
Brat did really well across the board...
20,000 more voted this time than last. If 12,000 were RATS, who do you think they voted for?
“...Obviously, the urban areas have the most population; but they are also the place where there would be a concentration of Democratic voters, too. If there is a true conservative backlash against the Republican establishment, why wouldnt it show in the rural areas, too?”
Your memory must be faulty. Richmond CITY was one of the few jurisdictions that Cantor won (54.5% to Brat’s 45.5%). The proposition that it was Democrat voters that gave Brat the victory is NOT supported by the facts. The career-ending thumping that the base handed Cantor did, in fact, represent a “backlash” against the Republican establishment.
Because those of us who support the Tea Party began routinely telling pollsters to go f%&# themselves a long time ago.
the number of votes received by each candidate shows that 12,000 could not be RATS...
Why not? There were 20,000 extra voters this time.
turnout was significantly higher in heavily-Republican precincts this time, and this is where Brat did very well... while he did well across the board, he did not do as well in urban, moderate, democrat-leaning areas... all in all, he did not need votes from Democrats to win this election...
sorry—i sent without finishing my thought...
I’ve done some thinking about just exactly WHAT I am and I’ve concluded I’m more conservative than libertarian, but I wouldn’t go so far as to say libertarians are not conservative
He printed no literature, signs, or bumper stickers. His oppostion thought it was a vanity run. What he did was ask everybody he knew to vote for him. He handed out business cards that said "Do me a favor" Vote for NAME on date at address. He asked everyone and anyone if they could pass some along to their friends.
He got 1800 votes; the incumbent 325. It can be done for smaller local and state races, and I guess with some organization and planning for a congressional seat.
I find the influence of polls astonishing...especially these days with cell phones, caller I. D., call blocking, etc.
And yet, they say fund raising is based on polling, money investment by big donors is based on polling, media exposure based on polling and lots of money is spent on polling.
Reminds me of the tale “The Emperor’s Clothes”...nothing there but everybody says there is.
Brit Hume lives in Hume, VA...yes, named after his family.
Definitely a “castle in the clouds” kind of place...as well as DC.
No one seems to understand America is becoming American rather than Republican or Democrat.
Perhaps among those of us who are actually Americans.
But Obama’s latest project of sending in this tsunami of illegals, these supposedly unaccompanied children who just happened to be capable of making their way northward on foot and who showed up looking pretty darned healthy and clean, will dilute our politics and our culture such that the United States as we know it will completely disappear.
We will soon all bid farewell to the the rule of law, civil society, and American cultural institutions.
I guess we should not be surprised at the response of Hume or the rest of the GOPe cheerleaders at Faux News.
It is considered impolite on FR to refer to another poster without pinging him to the comment.
Trust me, I know this from having made that mistake myself and getting called out for it.
“...Obamas latest project of sending in this tsunami of illegals, these supposedly unaccompanied children who just happened to be capable of making their way northward on foot and who showed up looking pretty darned healthy and clean,...”
You noticed how clean, healthy and well-fed these “unaccompanied” children looked also. I also notice a considerable sprinkling of well-fed looking adults sprinkled amongst the children. This whole thing is a LIE by America’s political ruling class and is simply the latest tactic in their campaign to overwhelm America by REFUSING to simply return these illegal invaders to their country of origin.
It’s a very interesting view. We’ve all been told that now that the primaries are over, the republicans need to vote for the candidate, no matter who it is< and go for the win. Don’t be a sourpuss if ‘your’ candidate didn’t win the primary. Right!? It will be interesting to watch the establishment GOP on this one in the coming months.
It's not perfect, but it's not a sham either. When done right, polling does a lot of good. I'm recently retired, but I took a great deal of pride in delivering honest answers that kept candidates informed. And, yes, a lot of people (especially conservatives) lie to pollsters or just hang up on us.
You are right, thanks.
This is the money quote, what polls now do in elections.
It was always the function of polls, to influence elections, even worse they can be a propaganda tool to prepare us for what they have planned.
But he did educate us yokels of the meaning of amnesty.
It is really hard to figure what your point is. Are you upset or pleased?
I’m glad Cantor lost, I just hope Brat can win in Nov.
If disgruntled Cantor supporters stay home in protest, and RATS turn out in force...
It is still a win, in fact I would suggest that patriots vote for the Democrat if that is the only way to remove the current GOPe leadership.
“It is still a win, in fact I would suggest that patriots vote for the Democrat if that is the only way to remove the current GOPe leadership.”
It’s not a win if a moonbat takes the seat, and McCarthy takes Majority leader.
Both would be worse than what they replaced.
Nope, not really.
Yes, or they just lie to pollsters, because they are afraid to tell the truth on the phone, knowing the NSA is listening and recording what they say...
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! “At least Herr Lindsey is safe!”, “eat it with some ice cream”! LOL