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Why Polling Fails - Republicans Couldnít Predict Eric Cantorís Loss
The New York Times ^ | JUNE 11, 2014 | FRANK LUNTZ

Posted on 06/12/2014 8:44:16 AM PDT by Kenny

ERIC CANTOR wasn’t the only person at a loss for words on Tuesday night.

His pollster, McLaughlin & Associates, found itself trying to explain the impossible — how a projected 34 percent lead for the House majority leader 12 days before the election could end up an 11-point loss on Election Day to David Brat of the Tea Party in the Virginia Republican primary.

We’ve all been there. There isn’t a pollster alive — me included — who hasn’t had to take the walk of shame, hat in hand, to explain to an angry client why a predicted outcome simply didn’t happen.

Make no mistake: This was a whopper for the ages. McLaughlin didn’t merely get it wrong; this was quantitative malpractice — a mind-blowing modern-day “Dewey Beats Truman” moment.

That said, polls can’t predict elections. They are essential tools, windows into the minds of a particular audience — but they cannot and should not be used as infallible crystal balls.

Trouble is, pollsters are under ever increasing pressure to feed a voracious media beast and provide the answer to that perennial question, “Who’s gonna win?” And therein lies the problem with polls, pollsters and consumers of both.

<snip>

What is worse, if it’s true, is the suggestion that the Cantor poll was leaked in order to sabotage the other side by suggesting that the majority leader’s lead was insurmountable. In this case, not only was the poll inaccurate, the tactic was inept. It may have created momentum for the other side rather than crushing it, and lends legitimacy to the public skepticism aimed at our craft of late.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: brat; cantor; polling
the Cantor poll was leaked in order to sabotage the other side by suggesting that the majority leader’s lead was insurmountable.

This is the money quote, what polls now do in elections.

1 posted on 06/12/2014 8:44:16 AM PDT by Kenny
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To: Kenny

you know, if everyone just lied to pollsters, the whole sham industry would collapse


2 posted on 06/12/2014 8:45:36 AM PDT by bigbob (The best way to get a bad law repealed is to enforce it strictly. Abraham Lincoln)
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To: Kenny

Couldn’t the poll data also be explained by the fact that Democrats could also vote in this primary and did so to oust Cantor?


3 posted on 06/12/2014 8:46:08 AM PDT by Madam Theophilus (iI)
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To: Kenny
No one seems to understand America is becoming American rather than Republican or Democrat.

The coming war is between free men and the indentured sycophants

4 posted on 06/12/2014 8:46:40 AM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true .. I have no proof .. but they're true.)
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To: Kenny

It was the bad weather. (Eyes rolling)


5 posted on 06/12/2014 8:47:21 AM PDT by subterfuge (Hey NSA snoop, get a real job you idiot!)
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To: bigbob
you know, if everyone just lied to pollsters, the whole sham industry would collapse

You don't want EVERYONE to lie to the pollsters.

Just half the folks should lie.

6 posted on 06/12/2014 8:52:10 AM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: Kenny

Many of the late 2012 polls were also massively inaccurate.

Repubs were supposed to take the Senate. Instead, they actually lost seats.

Romney was supposed to trounce Obama. Instead, Michelle still gets to eat Kobe beef steaks and take expensive vacations to luxurious locations on the taxpayers’ tab.


7 posted on 06/12/2014 8:57:42 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: Madam Theophilus
Couldn’t the poll data also be explained by the fact that Democrats could also vote in this primary and did so to oust Cantor?

it is not likely that there were enough Dem votes to turn the election... Brat did exceedingly well in all the staunchly conservative precincts... Eric Cantor received 8,000 fewer votes this election than his last election... those voters either stayed home or voted for Brat...

8 posted on 06/12/2014 9:01:07 AM PDT by latina4dubya (when i have money i buy books... if i have anything left, i buy 6-inch heels and a bottle of wine...)
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To: Kenny

i think this polling firm, along with Cantor and his campaign staff, simply phoned it in... i think he/they knew he was not going to win by a large a margin as in the past, but i think he/they thought they could squeak this one out, and deal with growing their support later—once he was Speaker of the House... they were all on autopilot... cruise control...


9 posted on 06/12/2014 9:03:56 AM PDT by latina4dubya (when i have money i buy books... if i have anything left, i buy 6-inch heels and a bottle of wine...)
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To: knarf

“No one seems to understand America is becoming American rather than Republican or Democrat.”

I sure hope you’re right, knarf. It’s high time too.


10 posted on 06/12/2014 9:05:54 AM PDT by Paulie (Buy local, bank local, exert your influence locally; the left will fold like a cheap suit.)
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To: Kenny

I wonder if the best tactic is to sneak up on these statist so they don’t have time to organize their election machine.


11 posted on 06/12/2014 9:09:53 AM PDT by FreeAtlanta (Liberty or Big Government - you can't have both.)
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To: subterfuge

It was the bad weather. (Eyes rolling)
*****************************************************************
Yes, to quote the quite befuddled, discombobulated Brit Hume as he spoke the night of the election while a member of Megyn Kelly’s panel of experts -— “...well, it rained yesterday”. So the obviously stunned and disappointed Hume tried to blame some rain on Monday for Cantor’s landslide loss on Tuesday.

Some of these folks just don’t have a clue. Despite Kelly’s attempts to guide some of them to the realities on the ground, they simply couldn’t shake their misconceptions that stem from their time, in the New York bubble, being isolated from the “country class”.


12 posted on 06/12/2014 9:12:10 AM PDT by House Atreides
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To: Kenny

I feel like most of the polls are biased and won’t respond to them. How many others won’t either and what is the impact on these polls?


13 posted on 06/12/2014 9:12:12 AM PDT by MulberryDraw (Repeal it.)
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To: latina4dubya

Why I was wondering was due to a map of the districts Brad won I saw on FOX indicating that Brad won the majority of urban precincts. The rural ones voted for Cantor. Obviously, the urban areas have the most population; but they are also the place where there would be a concentration of Democratic voters, too. If there is a true conservative backlash against the Republican establishment, why wouldn’t it show in the rural areas, too?


14 posted on 06/12/2014 9:12:56 AM PDT by Madam Theophilus (iI)
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To: Paulie

Just guessing about knarf, but if he is a libertarian, what he means is America is becoming libertarian (he hopes) instead of CONSERVATIVE Repub or Dem. libertarians are the hippies of the right, they are not conservatives.


15 posted on 06/12/2014 9:14:47 AM PDT by sasportas
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To: Kenny

“Now, as Republicans recover from the shock of his defeat and set about moving forward on a positive path,”

Interesting view. How did Republicans lose? A Republican won a primary against another Republican. (Of course, the Establishment Republicans may have lost.)


16 posted on 06/12/2014 9:16:39 AM PDT by Gen.Blather
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To: House Atreides

Wasn’t overall participation up, by around 20%, from the 2012 primary?

Kinda hard to blame rain when there’s increased turnout.


17 posted on 06/12/2014 9:18:05 AM PDT by tanknetter
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To: Kenny

Cantor was polling the country clubs. This district is not NVA.


18 posted on 06/12/2014 9:18:41 AM PDT by Phosgood (Send in the Clowns...but Wait, they're here!! >..<)
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To: Kenny

The polls failed because they failed to poll the RAT crossover voters!


19 posted on 06/12/2014 9:25:50 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Unions are an Affirmative Action program for Slackers! .)
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To: Madam Theophilus
Early in the evening as counts started coming in, Brat took the lead, but it appeared the reporting was from more deeply conservative parts of this wide district, many of them north of Richmond and more rural and suburban. Then Brat was up in Chesterfield county, in and around Richmond, and ended up winning it 56-44. Cantor's best bet might have been in the suburbs of Richmond, Henrico County, both vote-rich and potentially more moderate. It was not to be. He lost Henrico county as well by 54-46 percent, which signaled the end of his night.

Brat did really well across the board...

20 posted on 06/12/2014 9:26:18 AM PDT by latina4dubya (when i have money i buy books... if i have anything left, i buy 6-inch heels and a bottle of wine...)
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To: latina4dubya

20,000 more voted this time than last. If 12,000 were RATS, who do you think they voted for?


21 posted on 06/12/2014 9:31:35 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Unions are an Affirmative Action program for Slackers! .)
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To: Madam Theophilus

“...Obviously, the urban areas have the most population; but they are also the place where there would be a concentration of Democratic voters, too. If there is a true conservative backlash against the Republican establishment, why wouldn’t it show in the rural areas, too?”
*********************************************************************

Your memory must be faulty. Richmond CITY was one of the few jurisdictions that Cantor won (54.5% to Brat’s 45.5%). The proposition that it was Democrat voters that gave Brat the victory is NOT supported by the facts. The career-ending thumping that the base handed Cantor did, in fact, represent a “backlash” against the Republican establishment.


22 posted on 06/12/2014 9:35:04 AM PDT by House Atreides
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To: Kenny

Because those of us who support the Tea Party began routinely telling pollsters to go f%&# themselves a long time ago.


23 posted on 06/12/2014 9:48:39 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Beagle8U
If 12,000 were RATS,

the number of votes received by each candidate shows that 12,000 could not be RATS...

24 posted on 06/12/2014 9:56:33 AM PDT by latina4dubya (when i have money i buy books... if i have anything left, i buy 6-inch heels and a bottle of wine...)
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To: latina4dubya

Why not? There were 20,000 extra voters this time.


25 posted on 06/12/2014 10:06:31 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Unions are an Affirmative Action program for Slackers! .)
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To: Beagle8U
20,000 more voted this time than last. If 12,000 were RATS, who do you think they voted for?

turnout was significantly higher in heavily-Republican precincts this time, and this is where Brat did very well... while he did well across the board, he did not do as well in urban, moderate, democrat-leaning areas... all in all, he did not need votes from Democrats to win this election...

26 posted on 06/12/2014 10:06:38 AM PDT by latina4dubya (when i have money i buy books... if i have anything left, i buy 6-inch heels and a bottle of wine...)
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To: Beagle8U

sorry—i sent without finishing my thought...


27 posted on 06/12/2014 10:07:21 AM PDT by latina4dubya (when i have money i buy books... if i have anything left, i buy 6-inch heels and a bottle of wine...)
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To: sasportas; Paulie

I’ve done some thinking about just exactly WHAT I am and I’ve concluded I’m more conservative than libertarian, but I wouldn’t go so far as to say libertarians are not conservative


28 posted on 06/12/2014 10:12:58 AM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true .. I have no proof .. but they're true.)
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To: FreeAtlanta
I have a friend who won a local commission seat by running a stealth campaign. He registered to run, then looked as if he wasn't doing anything. The usual turnout for this odd-day election was between 500 and 700 votes out of a community of 40,000.

He printed no literature, signs, or bumper stickers. His oppostion thought it was a vanity run. What he did was ask everybody he knew to vote for him. He handed out business cards that said "Do me a favor" Vote for NAME on date at address. He asked everyone and anyone if they could pass some along to their friends.

He got 1800 votes; the incumbent 325. It can be done for smaller local and state races, and I guess with some organization and planning for a congressional seat.

29 posted on 06/12/2014 10:14:33 AM PDT by Betty Jane
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To: Kenny

I find the influence of polls astonishing...especially these days with cell phones, caller I. D., call blocking, etc.
And yet, they say fund raising is based on polling, money investment by big donors is based on polling, media exposure based on polling and lots of money is spent on polling.
Reminds me of the tale “The Emperor’s Clothes”...nothing there but everybody says there is.


30 posted on 06/12/2014 10:30:36 AM PDT by matginzac
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To: House Atreides

Brit Hume lives in Hume, VA...yes, named after his family.
Definitely a “castle in the clouds” kind of place...as well as DC.


31 posted on 06/12/2014 10:32:56 AM PDT by matginzac
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To: knarf

No one seems to understand America is becoming American rather than Republican or Democrat.

(((
Perhaps among those of us who are actually Americans.

But Obama’s latest project of sending in this tsunami of illegals, these supposedly unaccompanied children who just happened to be capable of making their way northward on foot and who showed up looking pretty darned healthy and clean, will dilute our politics and our culture such that the United States as we know it will completely disappear.

We will soon all bid farewell to the the rule of law, civil society, and American cultural institutions.


32 posted on 06/12/2014 10:40:03 AM PDT by Bigg Red (31 May 2014: Obamugabe officially declares the USA a vanquished subject of the Global Caliphate.)
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To: House Atreides

I guess we should not be surprised at the response of Hume or the rest of the GOPe cheerleaders at Faux News.


33 posted on 06/12/2014 10:41:55 AM PDT by Bigg Red (31 May 2014: Obamugabe officially declares the USA a vanquished subject of the Global Caliphate.)
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To: sasportas

It is considered impolite on FR to refer to another poster without pinging him to the comment.

Trust me, I know this from having made that mistake myself and getting called out for it.


34 posted on 06/12/2014 10:44:15 AM PDT by Bigg Red (31 May 2014: Obamugabe officially declares the USA a vanquished subject of the Global Caliphate.)
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To: Bigg Red

“...Obama’s latest project of sending in this tsunami of illegals, these supposedly unaccompanied children who just happened to be capable of making their way northward on foot and who showed up looking pretty darned healthy and clean,...”
**********************************************************************

You noticed how clean, healthy and well-fed these “unaccompanied” children looked also. I also notice a considerable sprinkling of well-fed looking adults sprinkled amongst the children. This whole thing is a LIE by America’s political ruling class and is simply the latest tactic in their campaign to overwhelm America by REFUSING to simply return these illegal invaders to their country of origin.


35 posted on 06/12/2014 10:49:09 AM PDT by House Atreides
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To: Gen.Blather

It’s a very interesting view. We’ve all been told that now that the primaries are over, the republicans need to vote for the candidate, no matter who it is< and go for the win. Don’t be a sourpuss if ‘your’ candidate didn’t win the primary. Right!? It will be interesting to watch the establishment GOP on this one in the coming months.


36 posted on 06/12/2014 10:52:14 AM PDT by AD from SpringBay (http://jonah2eight.blogspot.com/)
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To: bigbob
you know, if everyone just lied to pollsters, the whole sham industry would collapse

It's not perfect, but it's not a sham either. When done right, polling does a lot of good. I'm recently retired, but I took a great deal of pride in delivering honest answers that kept candidates informed. And, yes, a lot of people (especially conservatives) lie to pollsters or just hang up on us.

37 posted on 06/12/2014 11:12:54 AM PDT by Pollster1 ("Shall not be infringed" is unambiguous.)
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To: Bigg Red

You are right, thanks.


38 posted on 06/12/2014 11:24:20 AM PDT by sasportas
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To: Kenny
---by suggesting that the majority leader’s lead was insurmountable.

This is the money quote, what polls now do in elections.

It was always the function of polls, to influence elections, even worse they can be a propaganda tool to prepare us for what they have planned.

39 posted on 06/12/2014 11:39:08 AM PDT by itsahoot (Voting for a Progressive RINO is the same as voting for any other Tyrant.)
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To: House Atreides
Hume tried to blame some rain on Monday for Cantor’s landslide loss on Tuesday.

But he did educate us yokels of the meaning of amnesty.

40 posted on 06/12/2014 11:44:05 AM PDT by itsahoot (Voting for a Progressive RINO is the same as voting for any other Tyrant.)
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To: Beagle8U
20,000 more voted this time than last. If 12,000 were RATS, who do you think they voted for?

It is really hard to figure what your point is. Are you upset or pleased?

41 posted on 06/12/2014 11:47:10 AM PDT by itsahoot (Voting for a Progressive RINO is the same as voting for any other Tyrant.)
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To: itsahoot

I’m glad Cantor lost, I just hope Brat can win in Nov.

If disgruntled Cantor supporters stay home in protest, and RATS turn out in force...


42 posted on 06/12/2014 11:52:42 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Unions are an Affirmative Action program for Slackers! .)
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To: Beagle8U
If disgruntled Cantor supporters stay home in protest, and RATS turn out in force...

It is still a win, in fact I would suggest that patriots vote for the Democrat if that is the only way to remove the current GOPe leadership.

43 posted on 06/12/2014 11:59:23 AM PDT by itsahoot (Voting for a Progressive RINO is the same as voting for any other Tyrant.)
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To: itsahoot

“It is still a win, in fact I would suggest that patriots vote for the Democrat if that is the only way to remove the current GOPe leadership.”

It’s not a win if a moonbat takes the seat, and McCarthy takes Majority leader.

Both would be worse than what they replaced.


44 posted on 06/12/2014 12:03:44 PM PDT by Beagle8U (Unions are an Affirmative Action program for Slackers! .)
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To: Beagle8U
Both would be worse than what they replaced.


Nope, not really.

45 posted on 06/13/2014 8:21:46 AM PDT by itsahoot (Voting for a Progressive RINO is the same as voting for any other Tyrant.)
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To: Buckeye McFrog
Because those of us who support the Tea Party began routinely telling pollsters to go f%&# themselves a long time ago.

Yes, or they just lie to pollsters, because they are afraid to tell the truth on the phone, knowing the NSA is listening and recording what they say...

46 posted on 06/13/2014 8:28:01 AM PDT by uncitizen
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To: uncitizen
Hitler's reaction to Cantor's loss
47 posted on 06/13/2014 1:55:52 PM PDT by C210N (When people fear government there is tyranny; when government fears people there is liberty)
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To: C210N

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! “At least Herr Lindsey is safe!”, “eat it with some ice cream”! LOL


48 posted on 06/13/2014 2:30:54 PM PDT by uncitizen
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