Skip to comments.Analyst: Fall Of Baghdad Would Make Current Gas Prices ‘Look Like A Bargain’
Posted on 06/13/2014 2:05:42 PM PDT by BenLurkin
LOS ANGELES (CBSLA.com) Oil industry analysts are warning a brewing civil war between Islamic militants in Iraq could potentially send gas prices soaring here in the Southland.
KNX 1070′s Pete Demetriou reports the price of crude oil has shot up to $107 per barrel the highest in 10 months on reports that soldiers with the al-Qaeda-inspired Islamic State of Iraq and Syria captured two towns in an ethnically mixed province northeast of Baghdad. The average price of a gallon of self-serve regular gasoline in Los Angeles County dropped three-tenths of a cent Friday to $4.129, its lowest since April 7, according to figures from the AAA and Oil Price Information Service. While that price is nearly 13 cents more than one year ago, most experts are predicting a relatively tame 7 to 10 cents a gallon increase in the next two weeks as the summer season kicks off.
But any reduction in the flow of Iraqi crude due to the ongoing Islamic insurgency in the northern Iraq cities of Mosul and Tikrit could have worldwide economic consequences, according to oil industry analyst Phill Flynn, who said speculators are watching for the worst-case scenario.
They think that Baghdad will not fall and that will be a more spirited defense of that city, Flynn said. But if it does fall and if the terrorists move further south, the price youre paying at the pump today is gonna look like a bargain in a couple weeks.
CBS News reports that a cellphone video from the Kurdish-controlled city of Irbil in northern Iraq showed the Islamic militants putting on a show of force in Mosul, parading vehicles captured from Iraqs military through the countrys second biggest city.
A fighter using a loudspeaker urged the people to join the militant group to liberate Baghdad and Jerusalem, according to CBS News.
President Barack Obama said Friday he is weighing a range of options for countering the violent Islamic insurgency in Iraq, but he warned government leaders in Baghdad the U.S. will not take military action unless they move to address deep-seated political troubles.
Were not going to allow ourselves to be dragged back into a situation in which, while were there were keeping a lid on things, and after enormous sacrifices by us, after were not there, people start acting in ways that are not conducive to the long-term stability and prosperity of the country, Obama said from the South Lawn of the White House.
The president did not specify what options he was considering, but he ruled out sending American troops back into combat in Iraq. The last U.S. troops withdrew in 2011 after more than eight years of war.
Flynn said crude analysts will closely watch the developments in the region over the next few days.
Were gonna see some type of uptick; how dramatic it will be will probably be dependent on the events over the next 24 to 48 hours, Flynn said.
Hope ‘n Change.
King Obama is smiling
Then Obama will say the Oil companies are making a killing and wants to tax the money away from them which will cause gas price to go even higher ,it all helps stop Global warming don’t you know ,D’oh
That’s just an added bonus to Obama.
Glad I walk.
Finish the Keystone Pipeline. What are you guys doing on capitol hill? Move!
Obama is thinking — never let a crisis go to waste. Higher oil prices will make solar, wind, and alternative fields look better in comparison. It also reduces economic growth. People are more scared and many unfortunately turn to government. hese are things the Left likes
No War for Oil!
*war to try and save the electoral prospects of the Democrat Party in November, now that’s another matter
Good thing golf cart are electric!
And Russia has set MONDAY as the final deadline for a gas agreement with Ukraine, warning that they will cut them off.
Perfect storm coming, and it is all in Obama’s lap. In fact, he and his minions worked to make it this way.
Oil is going to sky-rocket and in turn the stock market may show a big backlash also. The implications with Iraq are huge and are bound to have a big economic impact. I wonder if Obama has a problem with a bad stock market or economy? He could ride in with the gov and rescue us all.
I don’t understand why that would affect prices here. We have so much of our own drilling going on that surely we aren’t still importing tons of oil, are we? Maybe I’m just not up on this subject....
Watching TV analysts yesterday - predictions(before taxes) ran from $4.50 to $6.50.
Apparently the Oil internationals would raise prices everywhere to reflect global market rates.
I figure that is one of the key reasons why he won’t intervene. It is one more step taken on his part to impoverish the middle class.
America, Barack Obama is taking every chance he gets to reach in your pocket and steal your hard-earned money. My disdain for him is immense and it grows by the second. . . .
With all due respect to the experts quoted in this article, according to most all of the analysts I follow predict no such debacle, in one case some are predicting more oil may flow as a result of this, not less.
A second assumption made looks erroneous or dated as well, i.e. that Baghdad won’t fall. According to recent stories, that city is already under siege; the water supply has been severed and refugees are fleeing the city in near panic. Baghdad may well fall within the next 24 hours. The critical “Balad” air base north of Baghdad is being evacuated of its US contractors without the aid of the US airforce which hasn’t been activated to help. They are being flown out by the Iraqi Airforce to Baghdad and from there to Abu Dhabi.
The fact of the matter is that Isis or Isil, depending upon the source is moving at lightning speed and they’ve caught everyone flat footed. I just hope and pray the crap bird US gov’t can wake up soon enough to evacuate the US embassy in time to save the personnel.
Few will accept the fractional value of alternative energy sources. If anything, this crisis will give fracking greater interest.
“I dont understand why that would affect prices here. We have so much of our own drilling going on that surely we arent still importing tons of oil, are we? Maybe Im just not up on this subject....”
Probably because of the mess world markets have made. In good stable times, it keeps prices low, but in times like these when a nation should be able to keep its resources local, the oil will just flow to the highest bidder, thus prices will jump. Obama is right about one thing, oil is a shackle but nobody has developed a good alternative, unless we want to walk and live in the dark.
They are not doing that that is for sure.
Oil is fungible. What is drilled here doesn’t necessarily stay here. If the world wide price of oil goes up then we can’t keep it lower here because it will be purchased by someone else and the price goes up to meet that export demand.
Here in California there is an 8% sales tax on gasoline on top of the other gasoline taxes. Jerry Brown and the Democrats get an extra bonus too, they get 8% of the gasoline price increase.
The folks Obama backed in Syria are winning, with the help of the puppet masters who control the Bush family. The response isn’t unexpected.
Doesn’t anyone see that this guy is a Muslim and he’s giving our country away? I am so frustrated, that Congress doesn’t even have the presence of mind to step in and defend our interests.
That would conflict with defending their interests.
Fattening their wallets and getting drunk.
Glad I bought a bike over the winter.
A real old-timer; built in the late 1920s in Austria. Got a good deal on it (equivalent of $20), though I had to fix it up a bit. Not bad for a museum piece. :D
What are you guys doing on capitol hill?
Fattening their wallets and getting drunk.
Biding their time so that they get their lifetime pensions. Bunch of freeloaders.
They're just trying to make Obama look bad with that inflammatory claim. (Getting in ahead of the WH press office)
Thanks for the information. It helped.
I thought only electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket.
Well... that's how the ruling elite make a killing in the stock market.
While the US imports of crude oil have been falling, we still import over 7 million barrel a day.
While we only get 0.3 million a day from Iraq, all the other folks that normally get oil from Iraq will be buyiing on the same world market, trying to get more and the global price will rise.
Remember “No War for Oil”? Well, the lefties got their wish. Not only will we not have the oil, but the most vicious barbarians will have it instead with which to finance more terror against us.
Well, I was always in favor of taking the oil if we could get it. 1, to pay for the cost of liberating the country and 2, as an offset against OPEC monopoly practices. I didn’t advocate stealing the oil, just using it to pay us back and then paying a fair market price on our terms. Its win-win-win. The American taxpayer is reimbursed, the American economy is boosted by lower energy prices and we keep a lot of cash out of the hands of the bastards who are trying to kill us.
Thanks. The explanation helped.
Yes, people will tolerate the idiocy of the greenies until it begins to affect them financially. Personal economics trumps everything.
We went out and filled up both vehicles this morning. Just in case.
How much oil do we get from Iraq? Anyone know?
Re the photo of Obama,
Caption it: “All Praise to Allah”.
Were not going to allow ourselves to be dragged back into a situation in which, while were there were keeping a lid on things, and after enormous sacrifices by us, after were not there, people start acting in ways that are not conducive to the long-term stability and prosperity of the country,
Uhhhh...ain’t that EXACTLY what the clown president has accomplished?
No War for Oil!
*war to try and save the electoral prospects of the Democrat Party in November, now thats another matter
I’d say that this last week was the nail in the coffin for the Dems. I’m guessing $4.40/unleaded here in by the end of the month. The good news is, that hopefully Dems will crawl back into their holes for at least the next 30 years.
And, there is so much BAD crap going on that some of it is drowning out the the other bad stuff, like the IRS “whoops, we lost two years of emails” issue.
You realize that if a private company did this, they would be toast, right? And people would be canned, immediately?
I’ll do the same thing in the morning.
In the meantime... what if Baghdad simply rolls over? No fight? No fight = no oil jump.
You make excellent points, but I also said no POTUS could secure re-election with 8% unemployment, $4 gas, surging food prices, and trillion dollar annual deficits to the horizon.
And apparently he could, or at least get close enough to cheat.
I’ve read that Saudi Arabia has enough spare capacity to easily make up for Iraq. Not sure what their interests are in this mess...I’m sure somebody will let us know.
Verified even by the liberals at CR: