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How Thad Cochran Is Trying to Avoid Eric Cantorís Fate (Needs Seldom Voting Democrats)
New York Times ^ | JUNE 12, 2014 | John Harwood

Posted on 06/14/2014 12:41:13 AM PDT by nickcarraway

SNIP

Odds are that number will drop on June 24. In 168 such cases between 1994 and 2012, a recent study by Fairvote.org found, turnout declined from the primary to the runoff all but six times.

An equation devised by the economist Anthony Downs helps explain why: R = P x B – C. The rationality of voting (R) equals the probability of the voters’ ballots making a difference (P), multiplied by the benefit of victory by their preferred candidates (B), minus the costs of voting (C).

For ordinary voters, primary runoffs represent the ultimate low-benefit, high-cost election: a low benefit because intraparty rivals tend to hold similar views, and a high cost because only voters paying an above-average amount of attention know when and where to vote.

SNIP

To inspire them, Mr. Cochran must rely on a sophisticated argument: that Democrats should consider him friendlier to their interests than his Tea Party rival, who if nominated would defeat the Democratic candidate Travis Childers anyway.

“What he has to do is find inert Democrats, who are not habitual voters, and get them to vote in a Republican primary,” said Daron Shaw, a University of Texas political scientist who helped target voters for both of George W. Bush’s presidential campaigns.

From the point of view of those voters, Mr. Shaw added, the question is “Why? To produce a better Republican candidate?”

SNIP

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections; US: District of Columbia; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: cochran; mississippi; obama

1 posted on 06/14/2014 12:41:14 AM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway

Does he think that getting the bestiality vote will make the difference?


2 posted on 06/14/2014 12:45:30 AM PDT by who_would_fardels_bear
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To: nickcarraway

Having failed to put together a winning ground game for the first primary, team Cochran won’t likely manage to now, but corraling Democrat votes in a Republican primary can work for a wily RINO. It did for Lindsey Graham. His team showed considerable caginess in leafleting heavily black neighborhoods, for example, touting warm words from black preachers.


3 posted on 06/14/2014 12:53:14 AM PDT by eater-of-toast ("It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones." --Calvin Coolidge)
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To: nickcarraway
The scandal, Haley Barbour said, had obscured a “transformative” McDaniel vulnerability: An April speech in which he called the federal Department of Education unconstitutional. Eliminating federal school spending would cut 15 percent of Mississippi’s elementary and secondary education budget — a fact Cochran allies are spreading among parents, teachers and principals to heighten their sense of urgency.

The last 50 years is becoming so clear.

4 posted on 06/14/2014 1:00:07 AM PDT by ansel12 ((Ted Cruz and Mike Lee-both of whom sit on the Senate Judiciary Comm as Ginsberg's importance fades)
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To: nickcarraway

“What he has to do is find inert Democrats...”

“Inert Democrats”? Is that a euphemism for dead voters?


5 posted on 06/14/2014 1:09:31 AM PDT by DemforBush (A repo man is always intense.)
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To: nickcarraway
A senator needs to be all there.

Thad isn't.

6 posted on 06/14/2014 1:09:34 AM PDT by cynwoody
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To: nickcarraway

The scandal, Haley Barbour said


LOL, the man who pardoned wife murderers speaks as though he’s never caused a scandal.


7 posted on 06/14/2014 1:22:04 AM PDT by RginTN
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To: RginTN

And there is no scandal at all in Cochran admitting to boinking farm animals?


8 posted on 06/14/2014 3:37:39 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Unions are an Affirmative Action program for Slackers! .)
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To: who_would_fardels_bear

That was a ploy to get Democrat votes.


9 posted on 06/14/2014 4:24:20 AM PDT by all the best (sat`~!)
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To: All
Thad needs Democrat votes? Now might be a good time to spread the word that Obama is coming down to campaign for Cochran (cackle).

Obama must be pleased as punch that Republican Cochran recently endorsed Obamacare....since lock-stepping Democrats who voted for it en masse, are running way from the debacle as fast as their Dummy legs can carry them.

In an interview at a campaign stop, over-the-hill befuddled Cochran called the Obamacare debacle “an example of an important effort by the federal government to help make health care available, accessible and affordable.” “I’m glad to be involved in that effort,” Cochran added enthusiastically.

10 posted on 06/14/2014 4:25:55 AM PDT by Liz
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To: ansel12

My wife is a school teacher in Mississippi and receives Facebook postings from “friends” in the school system saying how much better Cochran will be. She visited her classroom last week and her principal just had to tell her how worried she was about McDaniel. She is voting Chris anyway


11 posted on 06/14/2014 5:19:21 AM PDT by Sybeck1 (Vote McDaniel June 24th Mississippi!)
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To: Sybeck1

So the teacher establishment is behind Cochran. That means that this is the General Election and that Cochran is the Democrat candidate. Except that most Democrats, especially the union types can’t vote this time because they voted in the Democrat primary. Sweet.


12 posted on 06/14/2014 5:51:01 AM PDT by centurion316
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To: who_would_fardels_bear
Does he think that getting the bestiality vote will make the difference?

Probably not. He's running in Mississippi, not San Francisco.

13 posted on 06/14/2014 5:51:05 AM PDT by Fiji Hill
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To: nickcarraway

Just see my tag line...


14 posted on 06/14/2014 5:53:50 AM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (Pubbies = national collectivists; Dems = international collectivists; We need a second party!)
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To: nickcarraway

Is there any more proof required to demonstrate the fact that there is not a dime’s worth of difference between the Democrats and the GOP Establishment? That they are, in fact, one party united against conservatives, constitutionalists, libertarians, or any one else opposed the status quo monolithic political power that emanates from Washington D.C., the District of Criminals, a.k.a. Mordor on the Potomac.


15 posted on 06/14/2014 7:16:37 AM PDT by Count of Monte Fisto (The foundation of modern society is the denial of reality.)
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To: nickcarraway

“To produce a better Republican candidate?”

Yeah, that’s the ticket, why didn’t I think of that? certainly more democrats voting in the Republican primary will produce a better Republican.


16 posted on 06/14/2014 8:13:25 AM PDT by duffee (NO poll tax, NO tax on firearms, ammunition or gun safes. NO gun free zones.)
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To: Beagle8U

“And there is no scandal at all in Cochran admitting to boinking farm animals?”

He appears to be getting the democrat pass on media coverage of a scandal. If he were to win the primary, which he won’t, I’m sure the press will give it the full coverage it deserves this fall.


17 posted on 06/14/2014 8:19:21 AM PDT by duffee (NO poll tax, NO tax on firearms, ammunition or gun safes. NO gun free zones.)
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To: nickcarraway

Senators generally have urban and rural voters who rely on government projects and constituent services and they tend to be more loyal to incumbents than voters in suburban congressional districts, so it’s harder to dislodge senators than representatives.


18 posted on 06/14/2014 1:32:50 PM PDT by x
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To: nickcarraway; All

I gotta tell ya, that Article scared me some. Haley “Boss Hog” Barbour and Associates might get enough Black Democrats to vote for Thad, because of past favors he’s done for them, to make this a real nail-biter. I won’t breathe easily until this contest is over and McDaniel is declared the winner.

I hope Chris McDaniel and his supporters don’t relax, thinking this thing is over.


19 posted on 06/14/2014 8:59:39 PM PDT by Din Maker (Susana Martinez in 2016! Governor, Conservative, Female and Hispanic.)
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