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LocalAnalyst: Fall Of Baghdad Would Make Current Gas Prices ‘Look Like A Bargain’
CBS Los Angeles ^ | June 13, 2014

Posted on 06/14/2014 3:46:19 PM PDT by TigerClaws

LOS ANGELES (CBSLA.com) — Oil industry analysts are warning a brewing civil war between Islamic militants in Iraq could potentially send gas prices soaring here in the Southland.

KNX 1070′s Pete Demetriou reports the price of crude oil has shot up to $107 per barrel – the highest in 10 months – on reports that soldiers with the al-Qaeda-inspired Islamic State of Iraq and Syria captured two towns in an ethnically mixed province northeast of Baghdad.

(Excerpt) Read more at losangeles.cbslocal.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs; Government; Israel; News/Current Events; Russia; Syria; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: europeanunion; iran; iraq; israel; jordan; kurdistan; lebanon; nato; opec; russia; syria; turkey; waronterror

1 posted on 06/14/2014 3:46:19 PM PDT by TigerClaws
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To: TigerClaws

Maybe the EU can run to Iraq and get the Nero dude with their squirt guns.


2 posted on 06/14/2014 3:50:20 PM PDT by Sacajaweau
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To: TigerClaws

The price of gasoline will “necessarily skyrocket”


3 posted on 06/14/2014 3:51:31 PM PDT by Plane_Guy
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To: TigerClaws

All part of Traitorobama’s “Destroy America” campaign, endorsed by the DemonicRats.


4 posted on 06/14/2014 3:54:30 PM PDT by Carl Vehse
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To: TigerClaws

The US has been exporting gasoline so the effect should be less than expected.


5 posted on 06/14/2014 3:55:06 PM PDT by mountainlion (Live well for those that did not make it back.)
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To: mountainlion

Does not matter, the current price of oil is a world wide price.. any drop in supply anywhere will cause a drop in supply.

Obama is a-ok with this as he wants higher EU type prices.


6 posted on 06/14/2014 3:57:44 PM PDT by cableguymn (It's time for a second political party.)
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To: cableguymn

Disregard higher prices impact his voter base the most.

Remember when George W. was in office and there was a story every night on the news about the high gas prices? Never hear it mentioned on the news now and it’s certainly not Obama’s fault.


7 posted on 06/14/2014 3:59:17 PM PDT by TigerClaws
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To: TigerClaws

Huh? I thought the USA was now #2 in oil and gas and quickly catching up to Saudi Arabia in the passing lane. If so, why should Iraq, whose spigots were turned off for years, IIRC, matter?


8 posted on 06/14/2014 4:02:31 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2Million USD for Cruz and/or Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: Sacajaweau

“Maybe the EU can run to Iraq and get the Nero dude with their squirt guns”.

What what I can gather from the news this ISIS bunch is hauling @$$ for Baghdad as fast as they can. If they can get into the city of Baghdad and among the locals then they will have mitigated U.S. ability to use air power. Thus, advantage ISIS and the inevitable fall of the city. Once Baghdad falls then the Iraqi power structure will be crushed and done. Game over, ISIS wins....


9 posted on 06/14/2014 4:04:44 PM PDT by snoringbear (E.oGovernment is the Pimp,)
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To: TigerClaws

Billions of barrels of oil here...just too bad we don’t have refineries to handle it.


10 posted on 06/14/2014 4:06:26 PM PDT by Dallas59 ("Remember me as you pass by, As you are now, so once was I, As I am now, so you will be")
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To: TigerClaws

I made the comment that a topple of the Iraq government will cause gas prices to skyrocket. The idiot I told that to said, what happens to Iraq should not matter because we don’t buy oil from them. Market reality was not his thing, as with most American, who have their heads in the sand.


11 posted on 06/14/2014 4:06:31 PM PDT by jonrick46 (The opium of Communists: other people's money.)
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To: Dallas59
Where does America get it's oil?


12 posted on 06/14/2014 4:10:10 PM PDT by Dallas59 ("Remember me as you pass by, As you are now, so once was I, As I am now, so you will be")
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To: TigerClaws

Yeah, it would be pretty rough to get far from home and see fuel prices suddenly skyrocket. A panic would be possible.


13 posted on 06/14/2014 4:14:23 PM PDT by familyop (We Baby Boomers are croaking in an avalanche of corruption smelled around the planet.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
From the U.S. Energy Information Administration:
"The U.S. imported approximately 10.6 million barrels per day of petroleum in 2012 from about 80 countries. We exported 3.2 MMbd of crude oil and petroleum products, resulting in net imports (imports minus exports) equaling 7.4 MMbd. Net imports accounted for 40% of the petroleum consumed in the United States, the lowest annual average since 1991. "Petroleum" includes crude oil and refined petroleum products like gasoline, and biofuels like ethanol and biodiesel. In 2012, about 80% of gross petroleum imports were crude oil, and about 57% of all crude oil that was processed in U.S. refineries was imported. The top five source countries of U.S. petroleum imports in 2012 were Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Russia."


14 posted on 06/14/2014 4:18:29 PM PDT by familyop (We Baby Boomers are croaking in an avalanche of corruption smelled around the planet.)
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To: familyop

This is 2014.


15 posted on 06/14/2014 4:19:10 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2Million USD for Cruz and/or Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: TigerClaws

Barry is doing a sleepover this weekend with a couple of California pixies. We’ll have to get back to him later on this.


16 posted on 06/14/2014 4:19:12 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Obama's smidgens are coming home to roost.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

There are no numbers for 2014, yet, except for the funny numbers that we’ve seen in propaganda. The truth of the matter is that the U.S.A. is still a net oil importer.


17 posted on 06/14/2014 4:21:11 PM PDT by familyop (We Baby Boomers are croaking in an avalanche of corruption smelled around the planet.)
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To: TigerClaws
Remember when George W. was in office and there was a story every night on the news about the high gas prices?

Remember gas being $1.49 on Ø's Innauguration Day 2009?

18 posted on 06/14/2014 4:23:01 PM PDT by lightman (O Lord, save Thy people and bless Thine inheritance, giving to Thy Church vict'ry o'er Her enemies.)
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To: cableguymn
Does not matter, the current price of oil is a world wide price.. any drop in supply anywhere will cause a drop in supply.

Even if Iraq's entire production is shut off immediately, and not sold by the profiteering terrorists, the world supply falls by less than 4%... and only temporarily at that.

19 posted on 06/14/2014 4:23:21 PM PDT by Teacher317 (We have now sunk to a depth at which restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
There are some numbers for this year after all.

Net imports: 5.382 million barrels of oil per day in March, 2014.

U.S. Energy Information Administration


20 posted on 06/14/2014 4:27:51 PM PDT by familyop (We Baby Boomers are croaking in an avalanche of corruption smelled around the planet.)
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To: TigerClaws

Sounds like a lot of fatcats hold gas futures and want to cash in big on this hypted up news. Wha a bunch of bull!


21 posted on 06/14/2014 4:29:38 PM PDT by CapnJack
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To: familyop

WTF? Where is all that shale and fracked oil and gas going? Into storage tanks?


22 posted on 06/14/2014 4:29:44 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2Million USD for Cruz and/or Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: TigerClaws
This posted by another FReeper..

article from 6/5/14:

http://gcaptain.com/kurdish-tanker-hauling-disputed-crude-leaves-moroccan-port-without-unloading/

The Kurds are trying to sell their own oil on the open market.
Baghdad has been trying to hamper those efforts

Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) pipeline goes through Turkey. Baghdad has long been irritated by KRG - Ankara commerce. KRG like will likely remain sovereign also likely with Turkey's help.

It has been well known that..

". . . Ankara has entered into energy deals with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), something which has infuriated the central Iraqi government in Baghdad but which has helped the Kurds further build a foundation for their independence [yes true that] Ankara has been so alarmed by the growing Kurdish autonomy [in Syria and tolerated by Syria, I believe] that it reportedly has provided support for [ISIS] in their fight against the Kurdish militia that controls the region [of Syria],which is affiliated with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)." [my emphasis]

more..

". . . the takeover by ISIS in recent days of Mosul and other cities . . . Ankara will likely not only have to deepen its relationship with the KRG . . . but also alter its approach to the Kurds in Syria [I ask: but demand that the Kurds in Syria reject the PKK?]"

more..

"Explains Lehigh University professor and Turkey expert Henri Barkey in an analysis piece on Al-Monitor website: The crisis may force the Turks to rethink some of their policies in Syria. To date, Ankara’s friendship with the Kurds stopped in Iraq; Erdogan and his government have taken an uncompromising position against Syrian Kurds led by the Democratic Union Party of Kurdistan (PYD), an offshoot of the Turkish Kurdish insurgent group the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The PYD has emerged as the strongest Kurdish group in Syria and has put together an impressive fighting force to defend its territory from both ISIS and the regime. The idea of another autonomous Kurdish region on its borders after the KRG has been anathema to Ankara. Paradoxically, the PYD’s armed elements are some of the only ones that have scored blows against the jihadists. In the face of the ISIS sweep, the PYD and the KRG, which have also had antagonistic relations, appear to be cooperating on defensive measures against ISIS. Turkey may have to reconsider its boycott of the Syrian Kurds to enlarge the anti-ISIS coalition." [my emphasis]

I don't think that the KRG wants anything to do with Turkey's enemy the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) terrorists -- our State Dept calls the PKK a terrorist group.

23 posted on 06/14/2014 4:31:12 PM PDT by WilliamofCarmichael (If modern America's Man on Horseback is out there, Get on the damn horse already!)
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To: TigerClaws
It's a good thing we have the Keystone Pipeline on stream pumping all that oil down to those new refineries in the Gulf!

Oh, wait...

24 posted on 06/14/2014 4:31:36 PM PDT by Gritty (The war is over. We won. - Michael Yon, Top Iraq War Correspondent, 07/21/2008)
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To: TigerClaws

It would be another win win for Obama.


25 posted on 06/14/2014 4:38:49 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The bad news:

Shale oil plays are rather short in duration due to costs, and we’re still importing natural gas (liquified for shipping, shipped, then deliquified for use).

U.S. Natural Gas Imports by Country
(Volumes in Million Cubic Feet, Prices in Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet)
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_move_impc_s1_a.htm

Much LNG and LPG are also being exported to other countries at times for profits.

The good news:

Sorry I didn’t keep some links, but the information on shale gas (not oil) is easy to find with a search. Domestic shale gas production is increasing and will increase for the foreseeable future. Shale gas plays will last longer and be a little more durable against fluctuating oil prices. The Chinese are building natural gas stations here and there in our country for dispensing vehicle fuel, and much of our trucking will probably be running on natural gas before long.

More good news:

If Iraq really lights up, the skyrocketing fuel prices shouldn’t go on for long, because shale oil production will then be much more profitable.


26 posted on 06/14/2014 4:53:02 PM PDT by familyop (We Baby Boomers are croaking in an avalanche of corruption smelled around the planet.)
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To: familyop

Yes, that is a factor. Many now unprofitable plays will become doable.


27 posted on 06/14/2014 4:54:39 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2Million USD for Cruz and/or Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Doesn’t all of this concern presume all Iraqi oil will be taken out of the world market?


28 posted on 06/14/2014 5:11:05 PM PDT by umgud
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To: TigerClaws
"LocalAnalyst: Fall Of Baghdad Would Make Current Gas Prices ‘Look Like A Bargain’"

Here's the reason for that. Imagine the effect of an oil shortage of only 1% with respect to demand. From the buyers' perspective, they need the oil, and they need to have it shipped now (or for many, next month, bought in advance). One percent would be enough of a shortage to cause some intense purchasing competition between buyers.

Given the real international market concerns lurking behind the sponsored opinion articles on oil markets, a very small shortage could easily spark World War III.

"Dry land is not just our destination, it is our destiny!" --"Deacon" character finishing his speech to his people in the movie, "Waterworld"


29 posted on 06/14/2014 5:11:45 PM PDT by familyop (We Baby Boomers are croaking in an avalanche of corruption smelled around the planet.)
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To: TigerClaws

and obama is praying to allah it happens.


30 posted on 06/14/2014 5:12:02 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man (Gone Galt; Not averse to Going Bronson.)
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To: TigerClaws

I forgot to add some information to that last comment. Envision a nation’s military force involved in a pursuit (as in moving many aircraft and mechanized vehicles from one point to another). Such pursuits use extreme amounts of fuel.

Put yourself in the shoes of politicians and commanders in that nation. The concern is the possibility of being in that 1% who didn’t get the oil shipped, or maybe even only getting a portion of the oil needed to win battles.

Or imagine 1% of the traffic stopping in a country. That’s 1% of economic activity not happening with business deals called off for some companies afterwards.

That’s why so much competition between purchasers and oil consuming nations with only a small chance of a small shortage. Surplus supplies are necessary for preventing much higher prices (no chance of shortages).


31 posted on 06/14/2014 5:21:24 PM PDT by familyop (We Baby Boomers are croaking in an avalanche of corruption smelled around the planet.)
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To: TigerClaws

Oh, so that’s why Obama isn’t interested in Iraq. He WANTS gas prices to skyrocket! All the better for his electric car manufacturer buds.


32 posted on 06/14/2014 6:26:28 PM PDT by SuziQ
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To: TigerClaws

I understand the “concept” of the world price of oil....what I don’t understand is if we produce more oil than we consume....and we are certainly capable of doing that, what the hell do we care what happens in the middle east>??????????


33 posted on 06/14/2014 8:58:57 PM PDT by terycarl
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To: TigerClaws

why........ iraq only produces for EU not USSA
plus we are fracking and exporting oil....
splain me pleze


34 posted on 06/14/2014 9:10:31 PM PDT by zzwhale
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