Posted on 06/15/2014 8:35:25 AM PDT by UMCRevMom@aol.com
The third gas war. Prologue
June 13, Prime Minister A.Yatsenyuk instructed Naftogaz Ukraine, relevant ministries and the regional state administration to prepare for a full cessation of gas supplies from Russia, Monday June 16. In addition, the Prime Minister instructed NERC establish economically justified tariffs for transportation of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory.
In turn, the leadership of Gazprom Alexei Miller said in the face of that between 10:00 am on June 16, Ukraine translated into full prepayment gas - "no payment, no deliveries. '" In addition, Miller said that the postponement - the last, and it is made only at the request of the European Commission, while Kiev moved on to "open blackmail."
Such subtotal held last week in Kiev next round of trilateral gas talks between Ukraine, Russia and the EU. In fact, the talks ended inconclusively.
Recall that Russia has twice established a "final" time of the transfer of Ukraine to prepay. It was the date - June 2, then - 9th, now - 16th.
Toughening of Moscow's position on the gas front and possible escalation with "overlapping crane" is largely due to the increasing complexity for Russian international conjuncture.
This week, the situation has deteriorated dramatically with the construction of a bypass pipeline "South Stream". Key countries - Bulgaria (entry point to the continent) and Serbia officially announced that they suspend their participation in the project. The final decision on the participation of these countries in the construction of the pipeline will be accepted after the conclusions of the European Commission on the compliance of EU antitrust legislation UP.
In addition, the annexation of the Crimea violated complex gas balance between Ukraine and Russia, Kharkiv agreement inapplicable and led to the need for political and legal clarification contractual framework between the two countries.
Related to this is an obvious chance of Ukraine to improve the conditions of purchase of gas from Russia. Side recorded their vision a fair price for gas. In Kiev, insist that they are willing to pay $ 268 per 1 thousand m3, Moscow offers a discount of up to $ 385.
Despite the fact that the price of gas is an extremely important indicator for the economy, pricing principles in this case is more important for Ukraine. Russia is trying to implement another scheme of "discounts" for gas, which would establish the decision of the government of the Russian Federation through the abolition or reduction of customs duties. Ukraine insists on changes directly in the contract for the supply of gas from 19 January 2009.
In case of failure of negotiations Ukraine intends to sue Russia in the Stockholm arbitration. Counterclaim prepares and Russia - Ukraine completely unselected for the formula "take or pay" in 2012-13. natural gas.
Getting Rid of Stockholm Syndrome Stockholm arbitration through
Stockholm Syndrome - sympathy arising between the victim and the aggressor in the application of violence or threat thereof. In a sense, this concept describes well what happened in relations between Ukraine and Russia over the past 20 years in the field of gas.
Virtually every revision of the agreements was an act of political and economic violence against Ukraine, because every time gas relations between the two countries became increasingly discriminatory and demeaning to Kiev.
Anyone who has at least once read the agreement dated January 19, 2009, will be shocked inequality parties have concluded this agreement.
The fact that every time Ukraine entered into negotiations with the less favorable positions, each time the talks were different policies with different interests, not always coincide with the interests of national. While Russia conducted its gas policy rigidly and consistently, and led her almost the same people.
Since 2009, Ukraine has been much talk about the fact that the correct contract in our favor only in the Stockholm arbitration. Over time, this thesis is fully confirmed. Several years of Ukrainian-Russian gas dialogue nor to no avail.
During the same period more than a dozen European energy companies have sued (or publicly announced its intention to sue) to Gazprom, and in most cases to achieve the desired results. Or in court, or else that happened more often, resulting in a pre-trial agreement with Gazprom. This German, Baltic, Eastern European company.
Therefore, treatment of Ukraine in the Stockholm arbitration may contribute to not only establish the market price for gas, but also to rid Ukraine of political elites are deeply entrenched in their minds Stockholm syndrome.
Wall Kolomoyskogo
Project week was the proposal of the Head of Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration I.Kolomoyskogo newly elected president of Ukraine Poroshenko on building walls of nearly 2,000 kilometers along the Ukrainian-Russian border. According to the project wall should separate the Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions of the Russian Federation and to prevent penetration of Ukrainian territory militants weapons and military equipment.
Note that such a radical solution to the problem as a whole proved itself in Israel, which was fenced off from the wall of Palestine, but there is quite different scale - small states than in Ukraine and Russia.
Chip walls that in world history such engineering structures were erected to protect the "civilized oecumene" barbarians, their raids and invasions. So, more than 2000 years ago Median empire began to build the Great Wall of China on its northern borders defensively from nomadic Turkic tribes.
In fact, the same motif moved the U.S. authorities, who recently built a solid wall on the US-Mexican border length of about 3 thousand kilometers in order to prevent mass illegal migration.
Possible exception may be called the Berlin Wall, which was not "kontrvarvarskoy" and ideological.
Returning to Ukraine, we note that the state border with Russia since independence was clear and there was more on the map than on the ground.
Moreover, the idea of real cordon was psychologically unacceptable to the mass of Ukrainians and Russians. No coincidence that the process of delimitation and demarcation of the border between Ukraine and Russia took a couple of decades, and the Sea of Azov is not shared until now.
In this sense, one can argue whether the wall is an effective technical solution and whether it will actually blocking the penetration into the territory of Ukraine of all unwanted items.
But there is no doubt that the construction of the wall Kolomoyskogo if it is built, take on a momentum crushing psychological effect.
Wall - is not just a physical object, not just materialized dividing line. Wall - a symbol of Ukrainian and Russian differences on different historical roads. Wall - is the collapse of the great myth of fraternal Slavic peoples.
well... they have ~four months till it gets cold again, better figure out a Plan-B by then
P.S. Bring us more money, too.
~In turn, the leadership of Gazprom Alexei Miller said in the face of that between 10:00 am on June 16, Ukraine translated into full prepayment gas - “no payment, no deliveries. ‘” In addition, Miller said that the postponement - the last, and it is made only at the request of the European Commission, while Kiev moved on to “open blackmail.”~
What a greedy capitalist pigs they are! /s
Gazprom would do well to remember that that pipeline can always be cut too...
Gazprom’s CEOblames Yatsenyuk for the gas talks disruption.
According to him, Ukraine doesn’t want to pay any more than the price the deposed Prez negotiated in return for NOT signing on with the EU. (Around $270)
Russia is saying no, that deal ended with the coup.
“Gazprom would do well to remember that that pipeline can always be cut too...”
Which is EXACTLY why the South Stream Project is such a political football. It bypasses the Ukraine bottleneck, and Ukraine/Obama’s ability to put pressure on Russia.
100%
even if they get all the treaties signed(that could take years), that will prolly take a decade or to to build
I think it would be best if gas never again flowed through the pipelines transiting Ukraine...write them off as a total loss.
Just a thought, looking at that map. Turkey has to be concerned about the Iraq mess spilling over to their Kurdish lands. At this point, do they really trust NATO to defend them there? Could Turkey seek a better relationship with Russia?
This youtube video gives helpful info:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t26Ekz1DHz0
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