Posted on 06/20/2014 10:21:58 AM PDT by cuban leaf
May you live in interesting times – Chinese curse
As a student of WWII, I was always amazed at how people could watch what happened to Poland (and to a lesser degree, Austria) and allow Germany to become a serious threat to the world. I now understand, because the same scenario is unfolding today as I pen these words, and little is being done about it, nor will it be until world powers reach a “now or never” point regarding their perception of the risk as they did, eventually, after the fall of Poland. But it takes a leader, conspicuously missing when we need one the most.
After the 9/11 attack and my subsequent reading of the Quran, my tag line on an internet site became “Islam is as great a threat to the world today as Nazism was in the early 30’s.” I saw it as dangerous, but not yet overtly so. Wherever Muslims were in the majority, for the most part they treated non-Muslims similar to how the Nazis treated the Jews, Gypsies, etc. in their early rise to power. But even this had been a bit of a background issue for me.
The real issue was what had been happening to the economy the last ten years or so. I see it as the culmination of a 100 year economic storm. This period of the rise of fiat money and overly easy credit has allowed the world’s economy to wildly explode in this last century, but the money was borrowed from a future that would have to eventually pay the cost.
And that future has arrived.
And in the case of the United States, we arrived being “led” by who is arguably the most incompetent president in US history and, of equal importance, a strong case can be made by simply reading and analyzing his own words, that he is a Muslim. But I digress. This is not really about Obama.
After Obama was elected and I watched the world’s economy continue to crash farther and farther – and then watched world leaders “kick the can” farther and farther down the road, I realized that we were a bit like a man dangling from the rope of an ever rising helium balloon – and the longer it took us to let go of that rope, the worse it would affect us when we did. But nobody had the political power to let go of the rope and risk only a broken leg (except Iceland).
And here we are, with “relatively good” economic news being shouted from the rooftops and markets swinging wildly ever upward (thanks to burning up the money printing presses at full warp speed). Meanwhile, as the lives of people all over the world become more and more difficult and their perceived future becomes increasingly bleak, I realized that in a very real way we are in Great Depression II
And the first one was ended by World War, which is where I think this will end.
As I contemplated this scenario, I did two things. First, I changed my tag line to “The world Today: August of 1939. And September is a comin’.” Second, I started studying and meditating on who would be the “Nazis” this time.
I examined the current world stage and began an exercise of identifying who may be the “bad guys” this time. The bad guys would, of course, possess three strong attributes. First, they would rise from an economically depressed country/culture. Second, they would acquire a significant increase in military might and, third, from their ranks would rise an iron fisted leader. In other words, they would be economically impoverished but militarily strong – stronger than their neighbors – and through a powerful, charismatic leader, possess the will to use it.
I wondered about Putin. Russia was (and is) an excellent candidate for this. They were decimated by the fall of the USSR and have not fully recovered. There is even a movement to return to the old regime, most overtly reported in the opinion pieces about what has been happening in the Ukraine and east. They are led by a both charismatic and politically strong leader that has already exhibited the will to use his country’s military might both as a threat of action and real military action. He is even becoming a bit of a cult hero in the western world (including the US) as a man who will stand up to nonsense – something otherwise sorely lacking in western civilization right now.
And then there is the rise of Islam. First, Islam comes from poverty. It gets its strength from it. If you follow Islam’s rules, your troubles are “someone else’s fault”, be it Israel (a popular scapegoat of Muslims), the “great Satan - the US”, or some other non-Muslim neighbor. This is one reason Islam is so incredibly popular in the prison population in the US. Islam is the perfect religion of “the irresponsible”.
As stories come out regarding the antics of Muslims in the UK, France, the Netherlands, et-al, it is clear that there is political movement afoot. The world has treated it as a minor issue that is mostly ignored as “a religious freedom issue”, though Islam is, in reality, a political system shrouded in a thin covering of “religion”. So it continues to rise, apparently ignored by the leaders who have been charged with protecting us from just such activity because it is a “religion”.
But what of the second: Military power? The most Muslim government in the world, Saudi Arabia, has it, but they know which side of their bread gets the butter - or oil dollars. They are not about to kill the golden goose (or my mixed metaphors) in the name of Islam. The family is far too pragmatic. Then again, maybe they are “saving up” for the day they can go “all in” with their new ally against the great Satan. This is definitely worth investigating.
All that is left is for the rise of a ruthless Islamic leader willing to take responsibility for the unthinkable brutality already being reported. And now, in only the last couple of weeks, enter ISIS – and the motivation for this piece. Watch for a name to percolate to the surface of news repots, and for the concrete to set on that name as ISIS’ official puller of all strings military. Once this happens – and I believe it is when, not if – the three pieces are in place.
And don’t think Putin’s Russia is still not in the running – or that it could not be both of them at the same time. Any student of Biblical prophesy will understand where I am going, intellectually, with this statement.
The world, undoubtedly, is at a precipice. We are facing the biggest economic collapse in the history of the world. As the world’s “police force” is now led by an empty suit leaving a trail of political failures, despots worldwide are limited only by their ability to overpower the defenses of the villages, towns and cities before them. And they are getting stronger and ever more aggressive, only to see our leaders attack with ever vanishing red lines and hashtags. And the once leader of the free world will be replaced in January of 2017, so they know their time is short.
Oh. And then there is China. We do, indeed, live in interesting times.
Cuban Leaf (AKA Robroy) 6/20/2014
There are many more related facets to our current times that makes them so "interesting", but you can't cover it all at once. One bite at a time.
Oh, and second, gave me the courage to end the charade. And may the chips fall where they may...
Good analysis.
It’s certainly interesting that ISIS is so public.
And look at who’s in charge of the CIA. A muslim who answers to a muslim.
Isis? Putin? China? Islam?
Not really sure which will be around to feast over the bones. I don’t know how much of a direct threat I now consider any of them, at this point. It looks more likely America will be dying by its own hand. From its own moral, economic, and cultural bankrupcy.
I’m not being USA centric at all in this analysis. I see Obama as just one of many players on the world stage. They all bring their own abilities, demons and motivators to the table.
Yeah, this will be bad for the US, but I think it will be bad for a lot of people. WWII was bad for the US, but there was still france, belgium, china, etc., if you get my drift.
Ditto that.
All the big economies of the world are a house of cards. A world wide crash is inevitable. With such a crash are the inevitable power vacuums that will be filled by strongman despots. Good analysis.
From a military point of view the invasion of Iraq was a viable strategy. By displacing the largest Army in the region we were well positioned to allow real democratic reform to occur in the region at a minimal cost. Not only could we have suppressed the rise of ISIS but we could have acted in Syria and Libya.
Much in the same way we nurtured democratic reforms in Germany and Japan the same could have occurred in Iraq and by consequence in other countries in the Middle-East.
Some may argue that doing nothing would have been better however doing nothing and allowing the rise of Islamic militants in the 90’s resulted in 9/11...
Very good. The strong man (or woman.) is out there. We will probably be surprised.
Much in the same way we nurtured democratic reforms in Germany and Japan the same could have occurred in Iraq and by consequence in other countries in the Middle-East.
The Anti-Christ is alive.
Germany and Japan were both cohesive societies Iran Irac Syria are not They are artificial constructs of the Sykes-Picot agreement of WWI
What is happening is the reversion of these states to their religious and tribal origins which we should encourage. There will never a “Caliphate” as the different factions will never agree
bookmarking to read later
bflr
The Anti-Christ is alive.
Germany and Japan were both cohesive societies Iran Irac Syria are not They are artificial constructs of the Sykes-Picot agreement of WWI
What is happening is the reversion of these states to their religious and tribal origins which we should encourage. There will never a “Caliphate” as the different factions will never agree
My position would be to keep Sunni and Shia odds and encourage Kurds to continue building their society and influence
Sounds logical.
But Iraq is really only the small piece of the picture.
I once had a Chrysler Lebaron that I really liked (for what it was, anyway). But at around 140,000 miles it needed a new top, new CV joints, new front suspension and the tranny was getting a bit, well, old.
I traded it in.
Replacing the $800 top was just a piece of the total story that totalled a lot more than the car was worth. Iraq is the “convertible top” in our current crisis because, truth be told, it is a perfect storm of crises.
On a side note, I just got back from watching Fox News in the cafeteria here. The unlimited - and serious - scandals taht are all getting legs at about the same time reminded me of NPR’s lament in early January about 2013: “2013 has been Obama’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Year”. And I remember thinking at the time, “You think that was bad? Wait’ll next year!”
I honestly do not think we will survive the Obama presidency. It is prudent to prepare for that future.
So, I was watching Fox news in the cafeteria today and they were talking about Iraq, and the news bimbo called the ISIS action a Blitzkrieg...
I can certainly share your dismay. However, I think we as a nation can survive a knave and poltroon like our current esteemed President. Jefferson’s adage about watering the tree of liberty may, however be part of all that.
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