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Shale Boom Will Spread Beyond North America Before 2020: IEA
ibtimes.com ^ | June 17 2014 8:45 AM | By Justin Scheck and Benoît Faucon

Posted on 06/22/2014 7:19:56 PM PDT by ckilmer

Shale Boom Will Spread Beyond North America Before 2020: IEA

 
on June 17 2014 8:45 AM
Map of Shale Oil And Gas Deposits
Here's the EIA's latest assessment of where the world's known technically recoverable shale oil and gas deposits are located. The number of countries on the list has nearly doubled since 2011. U.S. Energy Information Administration
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The North American shale boom that has transformed the oil industry here will spread beyond the continent before the end of the decade, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Tuesday in its annual five-year oil market report.

That’s sooner than IEA previously expected. Techniques like hydraulically fracturing or “fracking” in the U.S. have allowed drillers to extract previously inaccessible oil reserves, which has fueled a surge in production and put the country on track to become the world’s largest oil producer by 2020, according to IEA. Shale production has been slow to spread to other countries though, due to legal, political and investment hurdles.

IEA believes these hurdles are melting faster than expected. Russia and Latin America, for example, are set to encourage fracking technologies on a large scale, and last week, IEA said the Golden Age for natural gas would reach China in the next five years. 

Still, IEA forecasts shale coil production from outside the U.S. at about 650,000 barrels a day by 2019, a small amount compared to the forecasted 5 million barrels a day from the U.S. in 2019. Though IEA expects North America to produce about 20 percent of the world’s oil supply by the end of the decade, it also expects U.S. oil production growth to plateau.

IEA forecasts a slowdown in global oil demand growth, challenges to OPEC oil production capacity growth, and regional imbalances in gasoline and diesel markets.

“We are continuing to see unprecedented production growth from North America, and the United States in particular,” IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said as she released the report in Paris. “At the same time, while OPEC remains a vital supplier to the market, it faces significant headwinds in expanding capacity.”

Ageing fields are plaguing almost every OPEC producer, while security concerns have deterred some investment and international oil companies. As much as three-fifths of OPEC’s expected growth in capacity by 2019 is set to come from Iraq, but the forecast was drafted last week before ISIS seized several key cities in northern and central Iraq.


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: energy; fracking; gas; hydrofrac; naturalgas; oil

1 posted on 06/22/2014 7:19:56 PM PDT by ckilmer
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To: Kennard; thackney; bestintxas; nuke rocketeer; crusty old prospector; Smokin' Joe

mostly what’s fracked overseas before 2020 will be natural gas


2 posted on 06/22/2014 7:25:41 PM PDT by ckilmer (q)
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To: ckilmer
Just think of all the CO2! Oh, the humanity!
3 posted on 06/22/2014 7:29:26 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum ("The more numerous the laws, the more corrupt the government." --Tacitus)
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To: ckilmer

I’d understood natural gas to be more of a byproduct of the process rather than an objective. Frack for oil, get natural gas as well. Is this incorrect?


4 posted on 06/22/2014 7:30:24 PM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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BFL


5 posted on 06/22/2014 7:32:53 PM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin
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To: ckilmer

I read an interesting article on Estonia’s oil shale. It’s shallow and loaded so it’s being mined and either burned directly or being processed. This began well before WWII and both the German and Red Armies ran on the product. Of course at different times during the war. These deposits explain a lot about Putin’s obsession with Estonia.


6 posted on 06/22/2014 7:33:59 PM PDT by JimSEA
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To: ckilmer

That map shows the assessed basins. I bet there are a lot more un-assessed basins that aren’t shown on that map.


7 posted on 06/22/2014 7:52:11 PM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin
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To: JimSEA

Yes Estonia has has been mining their oil shale for decades. They have the process pretty well worked out—but it won’t fly in the USA because the EPA won’t allow open pit mining and the prices are too high relative to shale oil. There have been a number of projects ongoing for decades to do the job byo insitu heating the oil shale and melting it underground. But the biggest player in that —shell oil —pulled out last year.

I don’t know what’s going to happen now. I’ve read that the plucky estonian company has made some efforts to use their methods in the green river basin but so far their efforts have not yielded much progress. As well, the estonian company is helping the Jordanians who also have pretty big oil shale formation on their lands.

The israelis have the same oil shale formation under their lands. One of the big geologists for shell oil has come out of retirement in texas to help them in that effort. However, the Israeli environmentalists so far have kept that program from getting very far.

There is so much bad luck involved with oil shale over the decades that I’m thinking these days that by the time the world exhausts other hydrocarbon resources—the world will have moved on. Something like nuclear will make energy too cheap for oil shale.

That’s just my WAG. (wild ass guess)


8 posted on 06/22/2014 7:58:40 PM PDT by ckilmer (q)
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To: RegulatorCountry

I’d understood natural gas to be more of a byproduct of the process rather than an objective. Frack for oil, get natural gas as well. Is this incorrect?
...............
Not always there are some huge dry gas fields in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

That said, dry gas rigs have been declining while dry gas production has been rising. The reason for this is that the number of oil rigs has been rising—but drillers pretty constantly find natural gas among their natural gas liquids and oil. If they can, they’ll hold onto the natural gas and pump it somewhere productive for profit. If not, then the natural gas is flared off.


9 posted on 06/22/2014 8:01:37 PM PDT by ckilmer (q)
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To: Lurkina.n.Learnin

That map shows the assessed basins. I bet there are a lot more un-assessed basins that aren’t shown on that map.
..................
Hard to say.

Drillers have been punching holes in the ground all around the world for a century.

All the fields you see have always been known—they just have not been commercial until modern technology made them commercial.


10 posted on 06/22/2014 8:03:32 PM PDT by ckilmer (q)
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To: ckilmer

For 80 Euros, you can purchase Maria van der Hoeven’s, Antoine Halff’s and the OECD’s opinions on horizontal drilling and fracturing technology.


11 posted on 06/22/2014 8:05:52 PM PDT by Kennard
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To: ckilmer

Anywhere that oil,gas or coal is found in *civilized* countries...US,Canada,Australia,certain Western and Central European countries...and others...is good.Their discovery anywhere else is potentially bad.I give you the USSR as an example of that (yes,I said USSR).


12 posted on 06/22/2014 8:11:53 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Rat Party Policy:Lie,Deny,Refuse To Comply)
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To: ckilmer

I find it hard to believe that the only potential out west is that tiny sliver on the southern California coast. The first well drilled in California was way up north in Humboldt County at Petrolia.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrolia,_California#History
“The white settlers originally called the place New Jerusalem; when the first oil was pumped in 1865, it was renamed Petrolia.[3] It was the site of the first oil well drilled in California.[2] The oil was very fine and ultimately dried up; the site is now registered as California Historical Landmark #543.[2]”

I have heard from oldtimers stories of oil in the Eel River Valley and apparently others have heard also.

Is Humboldt County Being Fracked?
http://lostcoastoutpost.com/2014/mar/16/fracking-humboldt-county/
The first known instance of an energy company “fracking” near the Eel River’s estuary was in 2008, when Houston, Texas-based Foothills California, Inc. carried out the controversial extraction technique in two of its wells on Grizzly Bluff, located in the mountains south and west of Rohnerville and Alton. Foothills is a private firm incorporated in Houston, with a subsidiary in the epicenter of California’s oil industry, Bakersfield. Three long-time Texas and California oilmen founded the company in 2006.

Foothills has received a sizable share of its financial backing from notorious global investment firm Goldman Sachs, the world’s largest. The notorious merchant bank owned eight million shares in the company as of March 31, 2009, according to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Because Foothills, Inc. went private four years ago, right as fracking was becoming a swear word to environmentalists and people who oppose the poisoning and despoliation of water supplies in general. Thus, it is difficult to know exactly what sorts of drilling activities the company has undertaken since then, or what its current ownership structure is. Under California and federal law, they have not been required to disclose whether they are fracking, or where.

“In the past decade, we believe the industry has overlooked the hydrocarbon potential and production within the Eel River Basin due to its relatively isolated position in California,” the sole 2009 Foothills, Inc. report to its shareholders reads.

It continues, “We performed a CO2 foam fracture simulation program on the Vicenus 1-3 and GB 5 wells in June 2008. As of June 3, 2008, the wells were continuing to unload the fracture fluid, and the results of the fracture simulations had not been determined. Further drilling in the Eel River Basin will be planned after the cumulative results of these activities have been evaluated.”

All told, Foothills Inc. now has drilling rights on roughly 12,000 acres in the Eel River delta region in general, and on Grizzly Bluff in particular.

Another oil and gas company with holdings on Grizzly Bluff is Forexco, which reportedly works nine wells with another 13 on tap to be drilled in the near future. The company is registered in North Carolina, and its main backing comes from CitiGroup. The company also has proposed to construct a natural gas collection and transportation system that would cross the Eel River and interconnect with the existing gas sales delivery point at the Pacific Gas and Electric Company’s (PG&E) natural gas meter station in Alton.”


13 posted on 06/22/2014 8:22:59 PM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin
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To: Kennard

For 80 Euros, you can purchase Maria van der Hoeven’s, Antoine Halff’s and the OECD’s opinions on horizontal drilling and fracturing technology.
..............
Ok you got me. Why would I want to do this? Rather than say read stuff by Harold Hamm. The folk you mention sound like they’re rather far from the action.


14 posted on 06/22/2014 9:02:07 PM PDT by ckilmer (q)
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To: Lurkina.n.Learnin
I find it hard to believe that the only potential out west is that tiny sliver on the southern California coast.

...............

This is an example of what the ground looks like in california. It is very faulted so you can't really do any horizontal drilling.


15 posted on 06/22/2014 9:07:05 PM PDT by ckilmer (q)
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To: ckilmer

For 80 Euros, you can purchase Maria van der Hoeven’s, Antoine Halff’s and the OECD’s opinions on horizontal drilling and fracturing technology.
............
Ok now I see you’re point. These two give the international implications of fracking. But 80 Euros is more than I want to pay. Read enough articles & data and you’ll get the same picture that these two present. Why? Because they’re looking at the same info & data. I’ll bet you could give some pretty good answers to the questions posed below.

A webinar featuring IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven and Director of Oil Industry and Markets Division Antoine Halff introduced the 2014 edition of Medium-Term Oil Market Report on 17 June. The new edition addresses in particular the non-conventional supply revolution that is transforming the North American oil patch. Widely recognised as a game changer for the oil markets and industry, Medium-Term Oil Market Report examines how this transformation is playing out against the backdrop of other relevant market developments, analysing such questions as:

How long can the US oil boom be expected to last, and what will it take for other countries to replicate this success story?
What is holding up OPEC supply growth, and what will OPEC production capacity look like by the end of the decade?
How will the market absorb growing condensate and natural gas liquids supplies in the United States and elsewhere?
Will the recovery in global oil demand gain momentum, or is “peak demand” around the corner?
Is oil losing its grip on transport fuels?
Is US progress towards oil independence a step forward or a step back for crude markets? What about Middle East downstream forays?
Who will be the winners and losers of global refining capacity growth, and how will it affect the way refined products are delivered to consumers?

As the supply revolution enters a new phase, oil’s role in the global energy mix is being redefined. More than ever, getting a handle on these developments is key to ensuring that energy security is maintained or enhanced, investment is appropriately targeted and resources are optimally leveraged. That makes the MTOMR’s insights into the oil market for the next five years essential reading for energy industry and market stakeholders, policy makers and all those interested in energy and the broader economy.

http://www.iea.org/publications/medium-termreports/


16 posted on 06/22/2014 9:20:45 PM PDT by ckilmer (q)
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To: Gay State Conservative

Anywhere that oil,gas or coal is found in *civilized* countries...US,Canada,Australia,certain Western and Central European countries...and others...is good.Their discovery anywhere else is potentially bad.I give you the USSR as an example of that (yes,I said USSR).
................
There’s a lot of truth in that. imho we’ve been in gas station wars for the last half century.


17 posted on 06/22/2014 9:22:24 PM PDT by ckilmer (q)
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To: Lurkina.n.Learnin
That map shows the assessed basins. I bet there are a lot more un-assessed basins that aren’t shown on that map

Yeah...the Green River Formation weighs in at around 3 TRILLION barrels of oil......with about 1 Trillion recoverable with today's technology.

18 posted on 06/22/2014 9:42:36 PM PDT by spokeshave (OMG.......Schadenfreude overload is not covered under Obamacare :-()
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To: Kennard

For 80 Euros, you can purchase Maria van der Hoeven’s, Antoine Halff’s and the OECD’s opinions on horizontal drilling and fracturing technology.
............
Ok now I see you’re point. These two give the international implications of fracking. But 80 Euros is more than I want to pay. Read enough articles & data and you’ll get the same picture that these two present. Why? Because they’re looking at the same info & data. I’ll bet you could give some pretty good answers to the questions posed below.

A webinar featuring IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven and Director of Oil Industry and Markets Division Antoine Halff introduced the 2014 edition of Medium-Term Oil Market Report on 17 June. The new edition addresses in particular the non-conventional supply revolution that is transforming the North American oil patch. Widely recognised as a game changer for the oil markets and industry, Medium-Term Oil Market Report examines how this transformation is playing out against the backdrop of other relevant market developments, analysing such questions as:

How long can the US oil boom be expected to last, and what will it take for other countries to replicate this success story?
What is holding up OPEC supply growth, and what will OPEC production capacity look like by the end of the decade?
How will the market absorb growing condensate and natural gas liquids supplies in the United States and elsewhere?
Will the recovery in global oil demand gain momentum, or is “peak demand” around the corner?
Is oil losing its grip on transport fuels?
Is US progress towards oil independence a step forward or a step back for crude markets? What about Middle East downstream forays?
Who will be the winners and losers of global refining capacity growth, and how will it affect the way refined products are delivered to consumers?

As the supply revolution enters a new phase, oil’s role in the global energy mix is being redefined. More than ever, getting a handle on these developments is key to ensuring that energy security is maintained or enhanced, investment is appropriately targeted and resources are optimally leveraged. That makes the MTOMR’s insights into the oil market for the next five years essential reading for energy industry and market stakeholders, policy makers and all those interested in energy and the broader economy.

http://www.iea.org/publications/medium-termreports/


19 posted on 06/22/2014 9:46:07 PM PDT by ckilmer (q)
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To: Kennard

“We are continuing to see unprecedented production growth from North America, and the United States in particular,” IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said as she released the report in Paris. “At the same time, while OPEC remains a vital supplier to the market, it faces significant headwinds in expanding capacity.”

Ageing fields are plaguing almost every OPEC producer, while security concerns have deterred some investment and international oil companies. As much as three-fifths of OPEC’s expected growth in capacity by 2019 is set to come from Iraq, but the forecast was drafted last week before ISIS seized several key cities in northern and central Iraq.


20 posted on 06/22/2014 9:48:07 PM PDT by ckilmer (q)
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To: ckilmer

Quite a tortured set of folds. Classic. Trying to backtrack the various stress that caused that gives me a headache.


21 posted on 06/22/2014 9:54:03 PM PDT by JimSEA
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To: RegulatorCountry
Frack for oil, get natural gas as well. Is this incorrect?

Incorrect. Hydraulic Fracturing does nothing to change the product in the ground. It only makes cracks in the reservoir so whatever is already there can flow more easily to the well.

22 posted on 06/23/2014 3:56:06 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: RegulatorCountry

“I’d understood natural gas to be more of a byproduct of the process rather than an objective. Frack for oil, get natural gas as well. Is this incorrect?”

Depends where you are. There are two sets of reservoirs here:

1. Oil (which always has some natural gas produced along with it)
2. Natural Gas - which may be dry or have some liquids associated with it. Sometimes like the Eagleford’s most prolific area, these liquids are great in amount.


23 posted on 06/23/2014 6:03:59 AM PDT by bestintxas (Every time a RINO bites the dust a founding father gets his wings)
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