Skip to comments.(SOCCER) How can the U.S. advance? We walk through the scenarios...all of them
Posted on 06/22/2014 7:51:33 PM PDT by doug from upland
How can the U.S. advance? We walk through the scenarios All of them
The United States was seconds away from reaching the six-point plateau for the first time in the teams group stage history, but thanks to Silvestre Valeras 95th minute equalizer, a place in the knockout round is still slightly out of reach. Though the 2-2 draw leaves them tied atop Group G with Germany at the 2014 World Cup, the team may still need a result on Thursday to the second round.
Then again, they may not. If things break in the U.S.s favor in the groups finales, the team may already have enough points to make the final 16. Ahead of Thursdays match against the Germans in Recife, here are the scenarios that will lead the U.S. out of Group G:
(Group standings, in points and goal difference: Germany, 4 pts., +4; United States, 4 pts. +1; Ghana, 1 pt., -1; Portugal, 1 pt., -4.)
If the United States beats Germany
they win Group G and face the second place team from Group H (currently Algeria).
If the United States draws with Germany
they finish second in Group G, behind the Germans. Theyll then face the winner of Group H (currently Belgium).
[ MORE: Valera equalizer stuns U.S. | Man of the Match rankings | Talking points ] [ MORE: Soccerly covers the World Cup ]
If the United States loses to Germany, the team still advance in second place if
Warning: This is where it gets confusing.
1. Ghana and Portugal draw; or 2. Ghana beats Portugal (a) by only one goal, and (b) the U.S. loses by only one goal, and (c) Ghana doesnt outscore the U.S. by two or more goals on the day; or 3. Portugal beats Ghana and fails to make up the five-goal gap in difference (see more, below).
Thanks to Portugals lopsided loss to Germany, the U.S. has a huge edge in that first, goal difference tiebreaker. Portugal would either have to blow out Ghana or benefit from the Germans routing the U.S.
Here are the scenarios all of them some of which involve the word lots:
If Germany beats the U.S. by five or more, Portugal only needs to beat Ghana to advance. If Germany wins by four, Portugal advances if they beat Ghana at least two. If they win by one, Portugal can still advance if they end up with more total goals than the U.S. The Americans currently have four. Portugal has two. If the teams end up with the same number of goals, theyll draw lots, leaving Group Gs second knockout round spot up to chance. If Germany wins by three, Portugal advances if they win by three or more. Win by two: Total goals, then lots. Win by only one? Theyre out. If Germany wins by two, Portugal advanced if they win by four of more. Win by three: Goals and lots. Two or less: Theyre done. If Germany wins by one, Portugal advances with a five-goal win. Four? Goals, lots. Three of fewer? Adeus. Confused yet? This might make it easier. Here are the FIFA tiebreakers:
1. Goal difference in all group stage matches 2. Goals scored in all group stage matches 3. Points in matches between the tied teams 4. Goal difference in matches between the tied teams 5. Goals scored in matches between the tied teams 6. Draw lots
I gotta tell ya. That was a GREAT game. My entire neighborhood here in Pasadena was crazy. People on decks watching and screaming. It was a blast.
The thing i like about soccer is that it’s not played on camels......YET!
We are in big trouble.
Both Ghana and Germany are playing with an extra day’s rest.
We saw what playing in Manaus took out of Italy and England.
Assuming Ghana and Germany win, the only way we make it out is if both teams win by 1 goal. If either wins by more than that, we’re out.
And even then it comes down to goals scored.
One thing for sure is that games such as this one build a lot of tension if you have a rooting interest. The US go-ahead goal brought a YESSS!!! out of me as I leaped from my chair.
But they are all jet-lagged. And that always makes a difference.
The bar I was in exploded.
That may help.
I think it is more complicated than that.
There was a substitution right as stoppage time began and the referee added time for it onto the original four minutes.
As for advancing, not allowing a free header when you're playing with THREE center backs in the last half minute of added time is a great way to start. Don't really care if they drew the fourth-ranked team in the world. This one feels like a loss.
They also had the ball in the corner, and cheaply gave it back. You should ALWAYS get a corner kick out of that, and had they gotten it, most likely they run out the clock.
1. Get some real soccer players, instead of the current weekend warriors. :)
Besides often not having enough points scored, the really screwed up thing about soccer is the timekeeping. In this age of technology, why can’t they have the official time for all to see? When there is delayed action on the field, the ref stops his watch and it is there up on the board for all to see. Then they actually play 90 minutes and everyone is going to know exactly when it ends.
Agreed. Between that and Bradley giving away possession against Ghana late, it’s ridiculous. Chances to advance in a World Cup don’t grow on trees but certain players on this team sure seem to think they do.
We are in big trouble.
Both Ghana and Germany are playing with an extra days rest.
No kidding! Ghana will beat Portugal. That’s a given. We will be lucky if it is only one goal difference. Then, if Germany beats us by only a goal we will be OK, most likely.
But Bradley’s idiotic lackadaisical lapse at the end of the match means we have to play to win. There’s no guarantees! Had he played hard and kept game awareness 15 more seconds and simply booted the ball into row 23-F he could have rested completely this Thursday, not even mentioning that Jones and Beckerman and Dempsey could all have done with some rest,too. Now they all have to climb back out there and play a game that matters with Germany!
Bradley is the worst thing to happen to the Men’s National Team since Claudio Reyna.
Ever since Ghana got that tie with Germany, I’ve had a bad feeling.
My best case scenario did have the US going 1-1-1, but that assumed that Germany won out. Ghana getting a tie against them threw a monkey wrench into the whole thing.
Even in rural Oklahoma, we have enough soccer knowledge to know that the German-Ghana tie was a bad thing. Ghana is a good side and they are tough and motivated. They might kill Portugal by more than two or three goals if they score early. Portugal has nothing to play for at that point. Despite Portugal's late heroics tonight, I don't think they are all that mentally tough. There has been team dissension all along.
Just my opinion.
I am still trying to figure it out. LOL
This will certainly replace the NFL.
yes...they originally said 4 minutes then 5 but it was after 5 minutes when the other team scored.....what a system...
I’d rather be US than Ghana right now.
but, forever hopeful.....
With respect, I didn’t see that. When you go ahead in the game five minutes from time, you’re playing to win. The problem they have is that their back four just isn’t up to elite standard. Portugal’s goals were comical, even if the second was set up by a great pass. Neither one should ever have happened. Unfortunately, it may well cost them qualification.
Soccer is the greatest cure for insomnia the world has ever known.
One thing I envy the Muslim world for:
Goat Head Polo.
Horseback teams, drag, or throw or punt the goat head to the other teams goal.
Hell, If you’re going to sacrifice the goat to the moon god, you might as well make a mockery of a traditional Biblical sacrifice.
If you saw the movie ‘Gladiator’ (starring that fine ham actor Russell Crowe) you may recall the two tigers raised up during his climactic fight with that German in the scary mask.
If they put tigers on the soccer field every now and then, I think that might add some excitement.
And give the defenders little stun guns.
But that's why Howard is there. He should of had that cross and when you see the expression on his face you can tell he was thinking: "why didn't I come out and punch that?" He can't play like he has a team supporting him. In most of the last 2 games he's played like he has no help. He just has to keep reminding himself this isn't a premier league team more like a US teenage club team.
Not that the goal was his fault, it squarely lies on Bradley! Let's face it Bradley's there because his Dad has been high up in US soccer and was the former coach of the US MNT.
One thing I love about soccer is play is not stopped every 5 minutes for a DANG commercial. Just halftime.
See post 31 re: no commercials. I hated the dives and falls a lot more, but have eased up a bit once my son pointed out that they do it sometimes to get a quick rest in (no timeouts, no subs, etc.). I imagine it may also be used as a ploy to slow down the game too. (Aka the “Canadian time-out” when the goalie has to adjust his pads in Lacrosse). I still don’t like it - but makes some sense.
I didn’t see it, but in today’s game they allowed a water break due to the heat and humidity. First time in World Cup history.
Sorry Doug, I am very confused, you lost me at the word Soccer. You could have said Hockey and it is the same thing.
It’s simple: we need a win or a tie against Germany.
I enjoy the eleven minutes of action scattered throughout every three hour NFL game (I'm not kidding, those are the numbers), but the league will continue to restrict play. Eliminating kickoff returns, concussion reduction mania, etc. will continue to make it less enjoyable.
Fewer and fewer grammar and high schools will be able to afford the insurance to cover liability, and more mothers will object to participation.
Celebrations of Michael Sam's sex life, disputes over naming teams, etc. and other distractions will continue.
Meanwhile, the white Americans who most love the sport care more about it than they do about having enough children to replicate their fandom, apparently.
The fanbase is aging, but soccer's isn't.
A shame for advertisers - the NFL gives them 75 minutes of prime time at every game.
Who cares? Maybe we will lose and then these vanities will cease!!!
Any system that allows team A to advance over Team B, when both have the same record yet Team B beat team A, is screwed up. Then again, it’s soccer.
It does Germany no extra good to win. A tie and they are in the exact same spot. Expect both teams to pack in the defense and be conservative.
Yep, for all intents and purposes, if we lose we’re out.
I think Ghana crushes Portugal.
The rationale for that is, they want to encourage as much goal scoring as possible, which is why they relegate head-to-head to the third tiebreaker.
Interesting that the Premier League has Goal Differential as their first tiebreaker, but the Spanish La Liga does use Head-to-Head as their first tiebreaker.
People can rationalize anything. Take Democrats, for example. And apparently Word Cup soccer organizers.
Besides, I thought soccer was “The Beautiful Game,” where the intricate placement of players and deft ball handling to slowly gain sufficient advantage to score a goal wove a rich tapestry of athletic purity. Unlike the crass American sports like “Gridiron,” where the garishly ostentatious and unsustainable demonstrations of point scoring inequality rendered us “Ugly Americans.” What’s the big deal about goal scoring all of a sudden?
The initial extra time or injury time is for example the 4m, but the referee can add time if in that injury time, as happens, the wining team starts deliberately timewasting or fakes injury to slow the losing team’s attempts to score. Its quite simple.
No, that’s baseball you’re thinking of.
I’m sure it was originally 4 minutes and they added a 5th.
Socialism is whimsical.
Looking forward to a soccer game filling up a 75,000 seat stadium on a weekly basis!
You’re right, it’s just PR to call it the beautiful game. Yes, there are probably beautiful moments but that is well counterbalanced with poor officiating or what have you. Overall, this has been a very good World Cup.
It’s something how many Brits like American Football. It’s interesting too to hear someone use the phrase “Gridiron”, I am familiar with the term.
I’ve just explained the very simple reason a soccer referee can add extra minutes in injury time. BTW, as I have also pointed out and explained why, soccer is in fact the most capitalist of sports.
Its far from socialist. And irony of ironies, its YOUR sports that are set up in a socialist fashion.