(SOCCER) How can the U.S. advance? We walk through the scenarios...all of them

http://prosoccertalk.nbcsports.com/2014/06/22/2014-world-cup-united-states-fifa-usa-group-g-tiebreaker-scenarios-advance/ ^ | 6-22-14

[doug from upland]

How can the U.S. advance? We walk through the scenarios … All of them

The United States was seconds away from reaching the six-point plateau for the first time in the team’s group stage history, but thanks to Silvestre Valera’s 95th minute equalizer, a place in the knockout round is still slightly out of reach. Though the 2-2 draw leaves them tied atop Group G with Germany at the 2014 World Cup, the team may still need a result on Thursday to the second round.

Then again, they may not. If things break in the U.S.’s favor in the group’s finales, the team may already have enough points to make the final 16. Ahead of Thursday’s match against the Germans in Recife, here are the scenarios that will lead the U.S. out of Group G:

(Group standings, in points and goal difference: Germany, 4 pts., +4; United States, 4 pts. +1; Ghana, 1 pt., -1; Portugal, 1 pt., -4.)

If the United States beats Germany …

… they win Group G and face the second place team from Group H (currently Algeria).

If the United States draws with Germany …

… they finish second in Group G, behind the Germans. They’ll then face the winner of Group H (currently Belgium).

[ MORE: Valera equalizer stuns U.S. | Man of the Match rankings | Talking points ] [ MORE: Soccerly covers the World Cup ]

If the United States loses to Germany, the team still advance in second place if …

Warning: This is where it gets confusing.

1. Ghana and Portugal draw; or 2. Ghana beats Portugal (a) by only one goal, and (b) the U.S. loses by only one goal, and (c) Ghana doesn’t outscore the U.S. by two or more goals on the day; or 3. Portugal beats Ghana and fails to make up the five-goal gap in difference (see more, below).

Thanks to Portugal’s lopsided loss to Germany, the U.S. has a huge edge in that first, goal difference tiebreaker. Portugal would either have to blow out Ghana or benefit from the Germans routing the U.S.

Here are the scenarios — all of them — some of which involve the word “lots”:

If Germany beats the U.S. by five or more, Portugal only needs to beat Ghana to advance. If Germany wins by four, Portugal advances if they beat Ghana at least two. If they win by one, Portugal can still advance if they end up with more total goals than the U.S. The Americans currently have four. Portugal has two. If the teams end up with the same number of goals, they’ll draw lots, leaving Group G’s second knockout round spot up to chance. If Germany wins by three, Portugal advances if they win by three or more. Win by two: Total goals, then lots. Win by only one? They’re out. If Germany wins by two, Portugal advanced if they win by four of more. Win by three: Goals and lots. Two or less: They’re done. If Germany wins by one, Portugal advances with a five-goal win. Four? Goals, lots. Three of fewer? Adeus. Confused yet? This might make it easier. Here are the FIFA tiebreakers:

1. Goal difference in all group stage matches 2. Goals scored in all group stage matches 3. Points in matches between the tied teams 4. Goal difference in matches between the tied teams 5. Goals scored in matches between the tied teams 6. Draw lots

[doug from upland]

I am still trying to figure it out. LOL

[Vermont Lt]

This will certainly replace the NFL.

[cherry]

yes...they originally said 4 minutes then 5 but it was after 5 minutes when the other team scored.....what a system...

[bramps]

I’d rather be US than Ghana right now.

[cherry]

they played not to loose and didn't concentrate on maintaining position....it does feel like a loss...

but, forever hopeful.....

[Colonel_Flagg]

With respect, I didn’t see that. When you go ahead in the game five minutes from time, you’re playing to win. The problem they have is that their back four just isn’t up to elite standard. Portugal’s goals were comical, even if the second was set up by a great pass. Neither one should ever have happened. Unfortunately, it may well cost them qualification.

[SVTCobra03]

Soccer is the greatest cure for insomnia the world has ever known.

[bakeneko]

One thing I envy the Muslim world for:

Goat Head Polo.

Horseback teams, drag, or throw or punt the goat head to the other teams goal.

Hell, If you’re going to sacrifice the goat to the moon god, you might as well make a mockery of a traditional Biblical sacrifice.

[tumblindice]

If you saw the movie ‘Gladiator’ (starring that fine ham actor Russell Crowe) you may recall the two tigers raised up during his climactic fight with that German in the scary mask.
If they put tigers on the soccer field every now and then, I think that might add some excitement.
And give the defenders little stun guns.

[stig]

With respect, I didn’t see that. When you go ahead in the game five minutes from time, you’re playing to win. The problem they have is that their back four just isn’t up to elite standard. Portugal’s goals were comical, even if the second was set up by a great pass. Neither one should ever have happened. Unfortunately, it may well cost them qualification.

But that's why Howard is there. He should of had that cross and when you see the expression on his face you can tell he was thinking: "why didn't I come out and punch that?" He can't play like he has a team supporting him. In most of the last 2 games he's played like he has no help. He just has to keep reminding himself this isn't a premier league team more like a US teenage club team.

Not that the goal was his fault, it squarely lies on Bradley! Let's face it Bradley's there because his Dad has been high up in US soccer and was the former coach of the US MNT.

[Huskrrrr]

One thing I love about soccer is play is not stopped every 5 minutes for a DANG commercial. Just halftime.

[canuck_conservative]

In this age of technology, why can’t they have the official time for all to see?

Excellent point, there's no excuse for everyone not knowing how much time is left.

And soccer has got to do something about deliberate diving and acting. Some guy goes down like he's just been shot, is writhing on the ground in "pain" until he sees no one is paying attention, then suddenly he springs back to his feet in perfect health. Disgusting.

No other major sport tolerates that childishness - you try that crap in football or hockey, you'll get crushed on the next play; you try it in baseball and you'll get drilled your next at-bat. But in soccer it's everywhere, and not called a lot of the time, so it continues.

[21twelve]

See post 31 re: no commercials. I hated the dives and falls a lot more, but have eased up a bit once my son pointed out that they do it sometimes to get a quick rest in (no timeouts, no subs, etc.). I imagine it may also be used as a ploy to slow down the game too. (Aka the “Canadian time-out” when the goalie has to adjust his pads in Lacrosse). I still don’t like it - but makes some sense.

I didn’t see it, but in today’s game they allowed a water break due to the heat and humidity. First time in World Cup history.

[higgmeister]

Sorry Doug, I am very confused, you lost me at the word Soccer. You could have said Hockey and it is the same thing.

[Rummyfan]

It’s simple: we need a win or a tie against Germany.

[wideawake]

The NFL will not be "replaced" by any sport, obviously, but it will erode.

I enjoy the eleven minutes of action scattered throughout every three hour NFL game (I'm not kidding, those are the numbers), but the league will continue to restrict play. Eliminating kickoff returns, concussion reduction mania, etc. will continue to make it less enjoyable.

Fewer and fewer grammar and high schools will be able to afford the insurance to cover liability, and more mothers will object to participation.

Celebrations of Michael Sam's sex life, disputes over naming teams, etc. and other distractions will continue.

Meanwhile, the white Americans who most love the sport care more about it than they do about having enough children to replicate their fandom, apparently.

The fanbase is aging, but soccer's isn't.

A shame for advertisers - the NFL gives them 75 minutes of prime time at every game.

[biff]

Who cares? Maybe we will lose and then these vanities will cease!!!

[SoCal Pubbie]

Any system that allows team A to advance over Team B, when both have the same record yet Team B beat team A, is screwed up. Then again, it’s soccer.

[Wyatt's Torch]

It does Germany no extra good to win. A tie and they are in the exact same spot. Expect both teams to pack in the defense and be conservative.

[dfwgator]

Yep, for all intents and purposes, if we lose we’re out.

I think Ghana crushes Portugal.