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Could Iraq's Prime Minister Nouri Maliki Be Forced Out?
BBC ^ | 23 June 2014 | Michael Knight

Posted on 06/23/2014 9:13:04 PM PDT by nickcarraway

Overshadowed by Iraq's intensified security crisis, the country certified the results of the 30 April parliamentary elections on 1 June - triggering the start of efforts to ratify the next prime minister and his cabinet with at least 163 seats in the 325-member parliament.

Two-term Prime Minister Nouri Maliki and his State of Law alliance performed well, winning 92 seats directly and being able to count on at least a further 10 to 20 seats held by close allies.

Mr Maliki's Shia opponents could muster about 60 seats, the Kurds a further 53, the numerous Sunni Arab or nationalist lists a total of 60, and independents carrying the balance.

Competing as an MP in Baghdad, Mr Maliki won 721,000 votes - by far the highest personal vote of any Iraqi politician and even more votes than the 622,000 he gathered in 2010.

This performance put Mr Maliki in a commanding position to overcome opposition to a third term in office.

Indeed, when I met him and members of his inner circle in March they were confidently predicting their victory and making detailed plans for the third term.

The loss of government control across northern Iraq has arguably changed the picture.

(Excerpt) Read more at bbc.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: iraq; maliki; shia

1 posted on 06/23/2014 9:13:04 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway

Might as well, because they’ve tried everything else. ISIS advances unhindered


2 posted on 06/23/2014 9:14:32 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Viennacon

Didn’t the Peshmerga hinder them?


3 posted on 06/23/2014 9:17:57 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway

A couple of skirmishes, but ISIS have not really advanced against the Kurds in their controlled region. Not much reason to either. Malaki is the target.


4 posted on 06/23/2014 9:20:46 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: nickcarraway

Yes, but the territory the Pesh are fighting over doesn’t do much to cut the Mosul-Baghdad route. The Peshmerga are holding in Kirkuk, and from what I read recently, mounted an offensive on Jalula. Kirkuk is southeast of Mosul and Northeast of Tikrit, and can be avoided if your goal is to link Baghdad and Mosul.


5 posted on 06/23/2014 9:24:52 PM PDT by PVT4evr ((Operation Iraqi Freedom 2007-2008, 2009-2010 3rd Infantry, 2010 2nd Infantry))
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To: nickcarraway

Why should Maliki trust Obama?


6 posted on 06/23/2014 9:27:25 PM PDT by Graewoulf (Democrats' Obamacare Socialist Health Insur. Tax violates U.S. Constitution AND Anti-Trust Law.)
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To: nickcarraway

I worked on a PSD team for the State Dept in Iraq from ‘07-’12. Protected State Dept election monitors in ‘09. Maliki lost to Alawi, who everybody could get along with. Alawi is kind of secular, doesn’t play the radical islam thing, ain’t no fan of the Iranians and just wants to get his country back to some level of normalcy.

Maliki refused to vacate the office and vowed a fight if they tried to force him out. They settled on giving Alawi some type of position, but he no one could touch Maliki. When he was in exile, from Sadam, he lived in Iran. He is their bitch. They’ve been propping him up since day one and they aren’t going to let him go anywhere.


7 posted on 06/23/2014 9:34:33 PM PDT by qaz123
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To: Viennacon

Pity the new Iraqi military so far just can’t & not willing to fight ISIS (minus ‘skirmishes’ with the Kurds), even to save Malaki. Perhaps one should take recent events as real vote against Maliki.


8 posted on 06/23/2014 9:35:40 PM PDT by odds
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To: nickcarraway

This part of the world cannot be democratized. The people are tribal and that’s how they have always run things. We’re foolish to believe otherwise. And the parts of Iraq lost to ISIS are gone forever. No Iraqi army will ever take them back. This civil war is almost over. Can ISIS take Baghdad? Probably not right now. But in time, as America withdraws, they can. And this part of the world has nothing but time on their hands. We want things wrapped up right now. They will wait for as long as it takes.


9 posted on 06/23/2014 9:37:11 PM PDT by Cry if I Wanna
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To: Cry if I Wanna

I do think they can and will take Baghdad.


10 posted on 06/23/2014 9:38:09 PM PDT by MarMema (Run Ted Run)
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To: nickcarraway

Maybe manipulating the formation of the next government, now that the election results are in, was the driver to set some of these big pieces in motion.

Before Maliki gets selected as Prime Minister for another term and drives the country even further the way he has been going, other players may have decided to make a big push to change direction. One possibility.

I would suggest that any attempted putsch to get rid of Maliki include enticing golden parachutes for him, like a palace in Dubai and a bank vaults in Switzerland and Tehran.


11 posted on 06/23/2014 9:46:40 PM PDT by BeauBo
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To: nickcarraway

A question we should perhaps have asked before now, no?


12 posted on 06/23/2014 9:55:36 PM PDT by RichInOC ("In the name of Allah, The Inexorable, The Irresistible...")
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To: nickcarraway

Is Maliki Arabic for Diem?


13 posted on 06/23/2014 10:00:39 PM PDT by Argus
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To: qaz123

When the US (i.e. Obama Admin) did not back Allawi after his election victory, is when we (i.e. the Obama Admin) handed Iraq to Iran.

Maliki is the moderate face of Iranian influence/control. They could go with with Mookie Sadr, if they really want to let their freak flag fly, and abandon all semblance of anything but Iranian-style Shi’ite religious dictatorship, or another “moderate” front man. The Iranians always play that game of posing one of the team as “moderate” against another playing the “hardliner” to fool the West into supporting their agenda anyway.

Or maybe they will be squeezed hard enough to concede to something more inclusive (but likley still less than inclusive than Iyad Allawi would have been). It would be a lot more likely that their nuts could be squeezed hard enough, if we had a different administration in the US.

I’ve got my popcorn ready to watch the show.


14 posted on 06/23/2014 10:03:00 PM PDT by BeauBo
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To: nickcarraway
Who believes that ousting Maliki will halt the march of ISIL on Bagdad? Go ahead. Raise your hands.

CC

15 posted on 06/23/2014 10:14:15 PM PDT by Captain Compassion
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To: Captain Compassion; MarMema

I have my doubts that ISIS can take Baghdad. They have 5000 fighters tops. It was one thing to beat the Iraqi Army, but it seems like they barely have enough to hold their territory. When they get to Iraq they will be city fighting. The Army may not put up a fight, but the locals probably will. That city fighting takes a lot of lives.


16 posted on 06/23/2014 10:17:46 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway

“I have my doubts that ISIS can take Baghdad...That city fighting takes a lot of lives.”

I agree that Baghdad should be a lot harder. It has been purged of a lot of Sunnis, and De-Ba’athification has left fewer potential turncoats there to turn things over to the attackers. The Iranians and the Maliki Government have had some time to muster for a defense or counter-attack. Whoever controls Baghdad has a claim on the whole country, so the stakes are higher.

If the rebels are going to take Baghdad, they better do it quick, because it will probably get harder with time. ISIS alone has no chance, only a large mobilization of Ba’athists and Sunni tribes could pull it off, but even that would be likely to degenerate into a Stalingrad-like bloodbath.

The Sunnis would probably be wiser to consolidate all the easy pickings and prepare to defend them.

If they are Bat-Shit crazy enough to go for it - stock up on popcorn, because we will probably be able to see the smoke from outer space.


17 posted on 06/23/2014 10:39:53 PM PDT by BeauBo
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To: nickcarraway

If one changes the name to Obama then he should be asked to resign by foreign leaders as he rejects working with Republicans and uses his pen and phone to legislate


18 posted on 06/23/2014 11:16:25 PM PDT by RginTN
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To: BeauBo

The lesson in Iraq is, it’s a lot easier to conquer an area than it is to keep it.


19 posted on 06/23/2014 11:23:19 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway

“The lesson in Iraq is, it’s a lot easier to conquer an area than it is to keep it.”

Amen to that.

Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown.

In Iraq more than in most other places, loyalties shift quickly and frequently - just add money.


20 posted on 06/23/2014 11:43:12 PM PDT by BeauBo
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To: qaz123

I was in southern Iraq doing contract work when Maliki “won” reelection. What you said is spot on. Everyone who worked for me said they voted for Alawi.


21 posted on 06/24/2014 12:44:14 AM PDT by mikefive (RLTW)
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To: nickcarraway

I check the chechen sites now and then they are promoting ISIS. Betcha there are a lot of chechens heading that way.
Perhaps other recruits too.


22 posted on 06/24/2014 1:40:24 PM PDT by MarMema (Run Ted Run)
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To: nickcarraway
Could Iraq's Prime Minister Nouri Maliki Be Forced Out?

Anything is possible.
But my ignorant opinion is that his leaving the scene will be the result of bullets fired by one sect or the other.

That's pretty much the extent of the savage muslim animal nature.

23 posted on 06/24/2014 7:46:58 PM PDT by publius911 ( Politicians come and go... but the (union) bureaucracy lives and grows forever.)
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To: BeauBo
I would suggest that any attempted putsch to get rid of Maliki include enticing golden parachutes for him, like a palace in Dubai and a bank vaults in Switzerland and Tehran.

My choice is to let nature and history run out its course. Cleaner, cheaper and instantly permanent...

24 posted on 06/24/2014 7:52:40 PM PDT by publius911 ( Politicians come and go... but the (union) bureaucracy lives and grows forever.)
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To: MarMema
I check the chechen sites now and then they are promoting ISIS. Betcha there are a lot of chechens heading that way.
Perhaps other recruits too.

You must have read this book, and a few others like it.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Unholy Terror, Bosnia, Al Qaeda and the Rise of Global Jihad, John R. Schindler, Zenith press, 2007.

That's seven years ago. What are the odds Baraq Hussein has read it?

25 posted on 06/24/2014 8:57:58 PM PDT by publius911 ( Politicians come and go... but the (union) bureaucracy lives and grows forever.)
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To: publius911
I have The Wolves of Islam, a gift from a fellow freeper after I did some thread contributions here.

Some travel time to the border in the late 90's and lots of lots of time on their websites...

I was curious to see if the Wahabi sect would support or deny the Sunni version of Islam and surprised to see they gave it wholehearted support.

The books you posted look great. Betcha Amazon has them...thanks for the suggestions.

26 posted on 06/24/2014 9:28:13 PM PDT by MarMema (Run Ted Run)
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To: publius911
Chechen-led group swears allegiance to head of Islamic State of Iraq and Sham

From last November, so they are in. And if the chechens are in, things are ramped up significantly.

Isis will take Baghdad by hook or by crook. Remember Beslan and Budyonnovsk. Even with Shamil gone, they have learned a lot along the way.

27 posted on 06/24/2014 9:33:48 PM PDT by MarMema (Run Ted Run)
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