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Democrats Face Unfair Fight in Midterms (all together now: AWWWWWWWWWWWW)
nationaljournal.com ^ | 6/23/14 | Charlie Cook

Posted on 06/24/2014 1:20:23 PM PDT by cotton1706

Generally speaking, the further into a U.S. president’s tenure in office one gets, the less volatility there is in that president’s job-approval rating.

It’s pretty logical that 1,979 days into Barack Obama’s presidency, the number of people most inclined to approve of his performance has stabilized, as has the number of those disposed to disapprove of him. Given that Obama tends to evoke particularly strong emotions with bedrock supporters and equally adamant opponents, arguably more people than usual have locked in their opinions. And those who are undecided by this point are the folks who have pretty much checked out of politics and are unlikely to come down on one side or the other. Simply put, there are few people left who are ambivalent about Obama’s performance. We see large variances at this point only when we compare the results of one pollster to another. These variances are likely the result of individual firms’ unique methodologies and sampling idiosyncrasies; they do not represent the genuine changing of minds.

With the Gallup Organization sampling a little more than 500 adults per night, around 7,500 in a week (with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.13 with a 95 percent confidence level) and 15,000 in a month (margin of error +/-.8), the larger samples are more accurate. Each weekly poll consists of at least three times more interviews than the typical national poll of between 800 and 1,000 respondents; thus with Gallup using uniform methodology, it is the most useful poll to track the subtle shifts that do actually occur.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationaljournal.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections

1 posted on 06/24/2014 1:20:23 PM PDT by cotton1706
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To: cotton1706

Give them a very loud Bronx Cheer!


2 posted on 06/24/2014 1:21:38 PM PDT by SandRat (Duty - Honor - Country! What else needs said?)
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To: cotton1706

I have a feeling that this rule of thumb is gonna go out the window before this administration is finished..................


3 posted on 06/24/2014 1:21:52 PM PDT by Red Badger (I've posted a total of 2,735 threads and 84,728 replies, as of 06-20-2014)
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To: cotton1706

No worries the IRS will fix it for the Democrats


4 posted on 06/24/2014 1:22:37 PM PDT by molson209 (Blank)
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To: cotton1706

Even the low information voters are waking up to the fact tht Obama is helping to make their lives miserable.

The midterms should be a major wake-up call for Dems who have supported Obama’s failed policies.


5 posted on 06/24/2014 1:23:58 PM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: cotton1706
This midterm-voting group is older, whiter, more conservative, and more Republican

The voters are unfair.

6 posted on 06/24/2014 1:24:05 PM PDT by ConservingFreedom (A goverrnment strong enough to impose your standards is strong enough to ban them.)
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To: cotton1706

I’m still nervous about the Senate.
Since there are only a dozen or so senate seats that are really contested, the full force of the MSM concentrated there can be pretty effective.


7 posted on 06/24/2014 1:40:40 PM PDT by nascarnation (Toxic Baraq Syndrome: hopefully infecting a Dem candidate near you)
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To: nascarnation

“Since there are only a dozen or so senate seats that are really contested, the full force of the MSM concentrated there can be pretty effective.”

They are desperate to protect their precious US Senate!


8 posted on 06/24/2014 1:41:57 PM PDT by cotton1706 (ThisRepublic.net)
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To: cotton1706

I wonder if the Black Panthers will be out in force ‘monitoring’ the elections?


9 posted on 06/24/2014 2:13:07 PM PDT by ExCTCitizen (I'm ExCTCitizen and I approve this reply. If it does offend Libs, I'm NOT sorry...)
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