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Childers, Cochran in Dead Heat Among GOP Voters in Chism Poll
Sun Herald ^ | July 1, 2014

Posted on 07/01/2014 11:45:21 AM PDT by nickcarraway

Amid all the post-Senate election hubub over the weekend, Chism Strategies released a poll that shows Democrat Travis Childers and Republican Thad Cochran in a dead heat for a Senate seat that before the primary was considered a lock for the GOP.

The best news for Cochran is 42 percent of those polled are undecided. Childers is at 22 percent and Cochran at 21 in the poll of 832 Cochran and McDaniel supporters with landline phones on June 27. Only 2 percent of those polled were black. And the only Democrats polled apparently were crossover votes.\ Chism is the pollster who said McDaniel was up by 8 percent June 21 but the firm added this caveat: “How We See It Unless Cochran expands the electorate with general election Republicans and crossover Democrats, McDaniel wins.” Another troubling finding for Cochran in the latest poll: “When we asked McDaniel supporters which candidate they would support in the general election, 21% said they would vote for Democrat Travis Childers and another 16% said they would probably not vote at all. Only 22% of McDaniel’s supporters were committed to vote for Cochran in November.”

Chism, according to Y'all Politics, is hosting a fundraiser for Childers tonight in Jackson

A Rassmussen poll released Friday has Cochran up by 12 points, 42-34, a five-point dip from its March poll. Read the rest of the poll summary here.


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: cochran; mississippi

1 posted on 07/01/2014 11:45:21 AM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway
Not in MS, but I sure would be tempted to cross over in November and vote for Childers as an anti-GOP-e protest vote. Or, if I were feeling charitable I might just sit out that race.

Good luck Haley and Karl.

2 posted on 07/01/2014 11:47:34 AM PDT by Obadiah (None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free.)
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To: nickcarraway

The establishment has brought DISASTER upon our chances for 2014. If they want ANY hope of winning, Reince Pukus better call for Cochran to step down now


3 posted on 07/01/2014 11:48:29 AM PDT by Viennacon (Rebuke the Repuke!)
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To: nickcarraway

Remember we must NEVER AGAIN reward the type of misbehavior and corruption the RINO GOPe showed in Mississippi. Support and/or vote for Childers in the general election in November. Send the GOPe a message they’ll understand and not forget anytime soon.

Awaiting the imminent arrival of the RINO GOPe defenders.

REMEMBER MISSISSIPPI!!


4 posted on 07/01/2014 11:49:30 AM PDT by House Atreides (ANOTHER CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN FOR CHILDERS 2014 .... Don't reward bad GOPe behavior.)
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To: nickcarraway

ELECTION RULE OF THUMB:

Candidates don’t move on to the General Election until after the Primary has been finalized.


5 posted on 07/01/2014 11:53:08 AM PDT by stars & stripes forever (Blessed is the nation whose God is the Lord.)
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To: House Atreides

Replace rinos with democrats. Then replace democrats with conservatives. That’s the only way it will happen.


6 posted on 07/01/2014 11:53:41 AM PDT by VerySadAmerican (Liberals were raised by women or wimps.)
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To: Viennacon
The establishment has brought DISASTER upon our chances for 2014.

I have been thinking the same thing this week.

2014 should be slam dunk for the GOP, but their incessant and self destructive war on the Tea Party, refudsing to stand up to Obama and Harry Reid, the potential loss in KY and now MS of Senate seats. signals to me that the GOP will at best be fighting a holding action when the dust clears on Election Day.

We should be mopping up the Dems right and left, but leave to the GOP-e to screw up a sure thing.Like they did in 2012.

We saved their rear ends in 2010, but now, WE'RE the problem.

Does anyone anywhere have any hope the GOP will field a candidate who will win against Cankles or Fauxahontas in 2016? After the smoke clears on Election day, whatever the results, it is time to tell the GOP-e to go to hell and start o new political party.

We'll have nothing to lose at that point.

7 posted on 07/01/2014 11:56:44 AM PDT by exit82 ("The Taliban is on the inside of the building" E. Nordstrom 10-10-12)
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To: Viennacon

There are about 33 Senate races this fall where one can vote against the GOPe.


8 posted on 07/01/2014 12:01:08 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: nickcarraway

Childers is running on a personal record of receiving an A+ rating from the NRA, awards from pro-life organization and for voting against Obamacare.

Cochran is running on a personal record of voting fraud and accusations that the tea party is a bunch of backwoods racists.


9 posted on 07/01/2014 12:01:47 PM PDT by P-Marlowe (There can be no Victory without a fight and no battle without wounds)
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To: Viennacon

That is not the way they will spin.

They will say the seat was lost because of the Tea party, and double down on attacks.


10 posted on 07/01/2014 12:01:53 PM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: redgolum
That is not the way they will spin. They will say the seat was lost because of the Tea party, and double down on attacks.

They will be correct. They will lose because the Tea Party will not be voting for RINOs anymore, and the Republican Party can't win without the conservative base.

So it will be the Tea Party's "fault." So be it. Whatever. No more RINOs in office, period.

11 posted on 07/01/2014 12:10:47 PM PDT by Maceman
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To: nickcarraway

“The best news for Cochran is 42 percent of those polled are undecided.”

No, this is not good news for Cochran.


12 posted on 07/01/2014 12:10:47 PM PDT by demshateGod (The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God.)
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To: Obadiah

Just skip that line or vote third party. There other folks down ticket that might need your support.


13 posted on 07/01/2014 12:11:14 PM PDT by Little Ray (How did I end up in this hand-basket, and why is it getting so hot?)
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To: Obadiah

I have never voted Democrat but Childers would get my vote.

Unless there are consequences for bad behavior RINOs will keep doing this.


14 posted on 07/01/2014 12:16:26 PM PDT by ZULU (Impeach Obama NOW.)
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Last two Senate general election results:
Around 200,000 votes separating the winner/loser


2012
Gore        Democrat        503,467 40.55%
Wicker      Republican      709,626 57.16%
Cramer      Constitution     15,281  1.23%
O'Hara      Reform           13,194  1.06%
            State Totals  1,241,568

2008
Cochran     Republican      766,111 61.44%
Fleming     Democrat        480,915 38.56%
            State Total   1,247,026


15 posted on 07/01/2014 12:23:07 PM PDT by deport
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To: Viennacon

I’m lodging protest votes in Kansas. I was thinking of not voting for Roberts and Lynn Jenkins because of debt ceiling, continuing resolution, and Ryan Budget votes, and for doing nothing at all to stop 0. Now I definitely will not vote for them. Ever since they failed to defund 0care, or even try, I’ve known they won’t win in November. People are only looking at how damaged the Rats are, but Rat voters are too stupid to know how damaged the Rats are. The GOP base is highly motivated to NOT vote for the Ol Boy Network.


16 posted on 07/01/2014 12:23:53 PM PDT by demshateGod (The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God.)
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To: VerySadAmerican

That would be ideal, but I think it’ll be: replace RINOs with democrats then the civil war will start.


17 posted on 07/01/2014 12:24:59 PM PDT by demshateGod (The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God.)
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To: deport

Total coincidence that the D vote pretty much synchs up with the black population percentage?


18 posted on 07/01/2014 12:25:41 PM PDT by nascarnation (Toxic Baraq Syndrome: hopefully infecting a Dem candidate near you)
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To: nickcarraway

Bogus poll, There is no way 42% of the voters were undecided. That never happens in a poll. Also polling is biased as the population of Mississippi is 37% black. Claiming only 2% of the results show a flawed total.


19 posted on 07/01/2014 12:31:14 PM PDT by Steven Scharf
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To: nascarnation
Yep about 37% in some demographic info I was looking at.

One thing people are discounting is the number of voters increases substantially
from the primary to the general. About 370,000 in the runoff however, both the past
generals had over 700,000 GOP voters and over 1.2 million total voters. I don't
know where those other voters come from or what sways how they'll vote but they
don't vote in the primary. Those voters will determine the outcome, imo.

20 posted on 07/01/2014 12:35:05 PM PDT by deport
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To: Steven Scharf

If they under-counted the black vote that much, it’s much worse for Cochran.


21 posted on 07/01/2014 12:39:15 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway

If I didn’t imagine that the republicans actually don’t want to be in the majority, but to continue wimping around blaming others and collecting c of c and lobby $millions or mor, I’d be impressed

But this story shows a win win for them

If conservatives want the senate they’ll need to accept that the GOP wants to remain minority. If it’s not true it won’t hurt to just make the assumption

But this ms thing is just a win win for them

Show Cochran moving way ahead and then watch the GOP go after some other schlubby race that tgey can use to pull loss from victory


22 posted on 07/01/2014 12:40:24 PM PDT by stanne
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To: Steven Scharf
That poll was supposedly of the following:

The best news for Cochran is 42 percent of those polled are undecided. Childers is
at 22 percent and Cochran at 21 in the poll of 832 Cochran and McDaniel supporters
with landline phones on June 27.

What I read into is the Cochran/McDaniel primary voters aren't jumping on the
Cochran general bandwagon. Who knows at this point as there is a lot to be unveiled
before Nov.

23 posted on 07/01/2014 12:42:24 PM PDT by deport
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To: Steven Scharf

I should have done some research before my last post.

“Chism Strategies released a poll that shows Democrat Travis Childers and Republican Thad Cochran in a dead heat for a Senate seat that before the primary was considered a lock for the GOP.”

That is not what the poll shows. They are only reporting results of people who actually voted on June 24th when there was on race on the ballot. This is not a poll of the entire elctorate of Mississippi.

From hisim’s own website: “We recently conducted a follow up survey of MS GOP runoff voters to get their reactions to the election results and the controversy surrounding the crossover Democratic votes. We completed a total of 832 interviews on June 27th. The MOE was +/- 3.4 %.”

They also only went after landlines and guess who ansered the phone, old white woman who have nothing else to do. 59% 65+, 61% woman, 96% white. This explains why only 2% black.


24 posted on 07/01/2014 12:47:31 PM PDT by Steven Scharf
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To: nickcarraway

Chism Poll, data, cross tabs, etc.

Survey on Mississippi GOP Voter Mood Post US Senate Primary Runoff
Tables: Survey Responses - Toplines
Cochran's Tactics, Electoral Investigation, Barbour's Involvement, Third Party Ticket, Write In Support
Ages
Gender

25 posted on 07/01/2014 12:51:00 PM PDT by deport
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To: nickcarraway

I have this mental image of someone in Cochran’s camp saying, “How can they be voting for the Democrat?”


26 posted on 07/01/2014 12:57:54 PM PDT by DoodleDawg
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To: nickcarraway

A suggestion for MS conservatives who voted for McDaniel.

Regardless of your actual intent in November, if a pollster calls you, identify yourself as a conservative and tell them you’re voting for Childers.

If most of you take this simple action when called, Childers will move well ahead in the polls. That will scare the bejeezus out of the powers that be in the GOP and maybe they’ll come to their senses and get Cochran to withdraw from the race. And if he does, McDaniel becomes the candidate on the ballot in November, as I understand it.

Do this even if your actual intention is to sit home in November, or to hold your nose and vote for Cochran. It can’t hurt, and might make a difference in the near term. Besides, misleading a pollster can be fun.


27 posted on 07/01/2014 1:00:17 PM PDT by Norseman (Defund the Left-Completely!)
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To: demshateGod

When that pollster calls, tell him you’re a conservative and voting for Childers, regardless what you actually intend to do come November.

If all McDaniel voters do that, Childers will take a convincing lead in the polls, and the GOPe might decide to dump Cochran. At the very least it would scare the hell out of them.


28 posted on 07/01/2014 1:05:06 PM PDT by Norseman (Defund the Left-Completely!)
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To: demshateGod

Sorry, I thought I was posting that to a different thread. I see I’ve repeated myself...


29 posted on 07/01/2014 1:06:12 PM PDT by Norseman (Defund the Left-Completely!)
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To: Norseman
And if he does, McDaniel becomes the candidate on the
ballot in November, as I understand it.

************

Where are you getting your info to come to your understanding? I believe
in some cases if a candidate is removed the Party Apparatus makes the call. If after
the ballots are printed then I believe a write-in is permissible.

Maybe someone with MS info could enlighten us.

30 posted on 07/01/2014 1:11:56 PM PDT by deport
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To: deport

That’s why I added the qualifying remark. Someone else stated that would be the case if Cochran was removed. McDaniel would automatically take his spot.

Whether it’s true or not, I’m not sure. As you said, perhaps someone in MS familiar with their laws can clear it up?


31 posted on 07/01/2014 1:20:11 PM PDT by Norseman (Defund the Left-Completely!)
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To: nickcarraway

Trent Lott should be ashamed of himself. That vile, reprehensible conduct he engaged in renders him unfit for any office. His “advisors”, too. Utterly shameful!


32 posted on 07/01/2014 1:36:41 PM PDT by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: House Atreides

Write in McDaniel.


33 posted on 07/01/2014 1:38:16 PM PDT by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: Viennacon

We do not need Cochran to step down.
The RINO will appoint anyone but McDaniel.
A fair election must be held.


34 posted on 07/01/2014 1:38:35 PM PDT by tennmountainman (True conservatives don't like being pissed on by their own party!)
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To: nickcarraway

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/07/01/pastor-claims-republican-senator-was-buying-black-votes-to-beat-back-tea-party-challenge/


35 posted on 07/01/2014 1:39:30 PM PDT by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: Steven Scharf

If Cochran finds it difficult to prevail against Travis Childers in a survey of folks who voted in the June 24th REPUBLICAN runoff, he might as well bend over and kiss his butt and his Senate seat goodbye.

And it couldn’t happen to a more “deserving” person.


36 posted on 07/01/2014 2:36:26 PM PDT by House Atreides (ANOTHER CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN FOR CHILDERS 2014 .... Don't reward bad GOPe behavior.)
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To: TBP

“Write in McDaniel.”
*********************************************************************

NEGATIVE — A write-in vote for McDaniel in November would be a wasted vote. Such a write-in vote would be equivalent with hitting Cochran and the GOPe in the shin with a pea-shooter—it would simply tickle them. On the other hand, a vote for Childers would draw GOPe blood and would be equivalent to a gun shot to the chest.

Make the GOPe pay. Send them a message they can’t ignore and WILL REMEMBER. Let’s not reward their bad behavior or throw away our votes which can hurt THEM.


37 posted on 07/01/2014 2:42:51 PM PDT by House Atreides (ANOTHER CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN FOR CHILDERS 2014 .... Don't reward bad GOPe behavior.)
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To: House Atreides

Lisa Murkowski won on write-ins, and McDaniel’s name is easier to spell. Besides, he’s the one we really want in there.


38 posted on 07/01/2014 2:59:58 PM PDT by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: TBP

Write-ins aren’t counted in MS except in very unique circumstances. Like if the primary winner dies after the ballots are printed but before the general election.

Otherwise they’re not counted and just thrown out.


39 posted on 07/01/2014 3:02:31 PM PDT by Black Agnes
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To: TBP

You need to check on MISSISSIPPI election law (not Alaskan election law) and you’ll find that write in votes for McDaniel in this situation DO NOT COUNT (even if his write-in votes would be 51% of all votes cast for the office). Write-in votes for McDaniel would not hurt Cochran much.

I’ll say again, if Cochran becomes the Republican nominee, then all true conservatives in Mississippi NEED TO VOTE FOR TRAVIS CHILDERS. That would be the ONLY way we could send a message to the GOPe that they’ll understand and punish them for their corrupt, dishonest behavior.


40 posted on 07/01/2014 3:05:59 PM PDT by House Atreides (ANOTHER CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN FOR CHILDERS 2014 .... Don't reward bad GOPe behavior.)
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To: VerySadAmerican

Yep, hopefully McDaniel runs and wins. If not don’t let Thud win.


41 posted on 07/01/2014 5:05:33 PM PDT by Carry me back
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To: TBP

Put McDaniel in ,the traitor, Thud and his traitor handlers must not prevail.


42 posted on 07/01/2014 5:08:56 PM PDT by Carry me back
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MS GOP Executive Committee meets with heightened security

JACKSON, MS (Mississippi News Now) -
The Mississippi Republican Party Executive Committee just wrapped up a meeting
discussing the 2014 senator runoff results

snip

"Irregularities in every county, so we've covered 38 counties now, said
State Senator Michael Watson. "We have what we think is evidence of roughly
3300 plus or minus a few more irregularities in those counties. We've not
yet touched the Delta, we've not yet touched the absentee ballots."
end snip


43 posted on 07/01/2014 6:32:24 PM PDT by deport
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To: deport
All numbers should be at the Sec. of State's Office by Monday the 7th.
They will publish the results and then anyone contesting the election can file a
complaint, but that has to be in a court of law.

And so they say.............

44 posted on 07/01/2014 6:35:40 PM PDT by deport
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To: exit82
We'll have nothing to lose at that point.

I agree. Childers is the best protest vote against the Cochran treachery. Staying at home is a decent protest vote, too.

45 posted on 07/02/2014 12:39:23 AM PDT by xzins ( Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for victory!)
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To: deport; P-Marlowe

So, by recent numbers, if 20% of their base votes against Cochran for Childers, then Cochran loses 150,000 votes from his 2008 run and ends up with 610,000 votes. Adding that 150 to the Democrat’s 480 = 630,000 for a Democrat victory.

The GOP must make peace with that 20% or lose. If they don’t try at all to make peace, what does that say?


46 posted on 07/02/2014 12:47:43 AM PDT by xzins ( Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for victory!)
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