Skip to comments.The Real Trends in Full-Time Employment
Posted on 07/04/2014 10:11:38 AM PDT by Kaslin
This month's job report showed a seasonally-adjusted decline in full-time employment of 523,000.
Let's dive a little deeper and look at full-time employment vs. the civilian non-institutional population. The latter is non-seasonally adjusted, yet shows no seasonal variations, so we can compare to seasonally-adjusted employment numbers.
First, let's start with a look at widely-touted gains in employment that show jobs are at an all-time high.
Total NonFarm Employment 2003-2014
Full-Time Employment 2003-2014
Full-time employment was 121,875,000 right at the onset of the recession in November 2007. Today full-time employment is 118,204,000. The difference is 3,671,000.
In the last month, full-time employment declined by 523,000 while voluntary part-time employment rose by a whopping 840,000. Meanwhile, those wanting full-time employment (but only finding part-time employment) rose by 250,000.
Full-Time Employment 1970-2014
Never before has it taken so long to recover employment back to pre-recession peaks.
Let's look at this another way: How fast is employment growing vs. the rise in population?
Full-Time Employment vs. Civilian Non-Institutional Population
The green line (population minus full-time employment) shows that from the mid-1980s through the start of the recession, full-time employment outpaced population growth. Since then full-time employment has lagged.
Such details shows seemingly good job numbers are nowhere near as good as widely touted.
Every year there is the Spring hiring cycle and then the layoffs come September in tourist areas. And other places have their seasons too.