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Investment & Finance Thread (week July 6 - July 12 edition) [my title: The Economy Looks Great!]
Weekly investment & finance thread ^ | July 6, 2014 | Freeper Investors

Posted on 07/06/2014 10:24:34 AM PDT by expat_panama

 

Huh. 

While coming into the second half of 2014 we just had the GDP and employment rpts, and what happened is we got what seemed to be contradictory -2.7% and +6.3 bombshells.    On the other hand (Truman hated economists saying that) a look at the year over year GDP return along with the employment/population ratio puts the two together.

[click to enlarge]

The reason GDP growth looks solid is because that -2.7% was just one Qtr to the next, so last week's rpt tells us more about how good Q4 was than it does about how bad Q1 turned out.  Something else is the fact that over this past 1/2 year employment/population is finally making a move --a move we've not seen since the "recovery" began in '09.

 

 

 

OK, so last week I said "IMHO we're in an economy where we can still make money but it's just going to take more effort", but judging how stocks'n'metals are now rising up from this year's base there's reason to think that it may not take as much effort after all...

 

This is the thread where folks swap ideas on savings and investment --here's a list of popular investing links that freepers have posted here and tomorrow morning we'll go on with our--

Open invitation continues always for idea-input for the thread, this being a joint effort works well.   Keywords: financial, WallStreet, stockmarket, economy.



TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: economy; financial; stockmarket; wallstreet
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1 posted on 07/06/2014 10:24:34 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; AK_47_7.62x39; Aliska; Aquamarine; Archie Bunker on steroids; ...

—so there’s nothing to have worried about after all ping.


2 posted on 07/06/2014 10:26:13 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

Thanks for the ping


3 posted on 07/06/2014 10:30:34 AM PDT by GOPJ (Why no outrage over IRS targeting? Same reason Pravda didn't make a stink about gulags.FREnterprise)
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To: Wyatt's Torch; Chgogal
So this means I take back what I said in last week's post #88 here, and I'm glad I'm just trying to take back last week's words and not last week's trades...
4 posted on 07/06/2014 10:32:20 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: GOPJ

truly my pleasure


5 posted on 07/06/2014 10:50:18 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

Business events scheduled for the coming week
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/business-events-scheduled-coming-week-185317628.html

e
Personal Finance
CNBC

Compare Brokers
Business events scheduled for the coming week
Business events and economic reports scheduled for the coming week
By The Associated Press
July 3, 2014 1:58 PM

All times are Eastern.

MONDAY, July 7

BERLIN — Germany’s Economy Ministry releases May industrial production figures for Europe’s biggest economy.

TUESDAY, July 8

WASHINGTON — Labor Department releases job openings and labor turnover survey for May, 10 a.m.; Federal Reserve releases consumer credit data for May, 3 p.m.

BERLIN — Germany’s Federal Statistical Office releases export and import data for May.

Alcoa Inc. reports quarterly financial results after the market closes.

WEDNESDAY, July 9

WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve releases minutes from its June interest-rate meeting.

THURSDAY, July 10

WASHINGTON —Labor Department releases weekly jobless claims, 8:30 a.m.; Freddie Mac, the mortgage company, releases weekly mortgage rates, 10 a.m.; Commerce Department releases wholesale trade inventories for May, 10 a.m.

NEW YORK — Selected chain retailers release June sales comparisons.

FRIDAY, July 11

WASHINGTON — Treasury releases federal budget for June, 2 p.m.

Wells Fargo & Co. reports quarterly financial results before the market opens.


6 posted on 07/06/2014 11:20:16 AM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin
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To: expat_panama

What? Great? Then why is gas higher? And what about groceries higher too?

The economy is not great.


7 posted on 07/06/2014 11:54:32 AM PDT by Salvation ("With God all things are possible." Matthew 19:26)
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To: expat_panama

So I don’t have to look this up myself, has the macro econ metric MV, ever went negative in the last 70 years?

5.56mm


8 posted on 07/06/2014 12:09:01 PM PDT by M Kehoe
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To: Salvation
The economy is not great.

Wall Street may not accurately reflect discretionary income. But the sound you hear is the sound of the middle class being squeezed. Take a deep breath. Say to yourself in meditation "One world government. One world standard of living. One world religion". Then everything will seem all right.

9 posted on 07/06/2014 12:40:35 PM PDT by BipolarBob (Obama - The Scandal a Week President.)
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To: BipolarBob; Salvation
The economy is not great.

Wall Street may not accurately reflect discretionary income

lol!!  --this reminds me of back when I was a civil engineer I'd get rich every time there was some big natural disaster for me to build new dams and roads.  Now I'm working in the capital markets and I get rich when things in the labor markets have been horrible but are finally beginning to turn up. 

Let's get together on what the facts are; five years ago ten million people lost their jobs and are still jobless.  That's bad.  What we got now is that the American people seem to have finally gotten the situation under control and it really does look like we're making it right.  That's good.

10 posted on 07/06/2014 1:21:34 PM PDT by expat_panama
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To: M Kehoe
has the macro econ metric MV, ever went negative in the last 70 years?

Please help me out here, I'm not following how the money supply or velocity could be less than zero.

11 posted on 07/06/2014 1:33:01 PM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

I’m sorry, it was a rhetorical question.

5.56mm


12 posted on 07/06/2014 1:40:42 PM PDT by M Kehoe
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To: M Kehoe
a rhetorical question.

Ah, that explains it; I never get those right.  I'm good at T/F or multiple choice but I always screw up on the essays and rhetoricals.

13 posted on 07/06/2014 3:24:45 PM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

And there’s about $12 TRILLION in money sitting on the sidelines, waiting to come in with the right policies. A conservative (not Republican) Congress could unleash that capital flow as occurred in the 1990s under Schlickmeister.


14 posted on 07/06/2014 4:39:34 PM PDT by LS ('Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually.' Hendrix)
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Comment #15 Removed by Moderator

To: expat_panama
Last night I saw on Bloomberg TV Steve Forbes taking questions regarding money in general (he apparently just published a new book).

He mentioned that after the Nov elections in ‘14 the Feds are going to be ‘sticking their claws’ into mutual funds, money funds, etc., and ‘anything that moves’. But that was it - no follow-up, no outrage, no suggestions on what to do about it - he just seemed resigned to the fact that it's going to happen.

Assuming this comes to pass, what will it mean for the markets, the fund management business, and the average Joe's retirement money, in your estimation?

16 posted on 07/06/2014 7:52:00 PM PDT by MichaelCorleone (Jesus Christ is not a religion. He's the Truth.)
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Comment #17 Removed by Moderator

To: MichaelCorleone; Wyatt's Torch
What say you about the Feds ability to stick “their claws’ into mutual funds, money funds, etc., and anything that moves”?
18 posted on 07/06/2014 10:13:11 PM PDT by Chgogal (Obama "hung the SEALs out to dry, basically exposed them like a set of dog balls..." CMH)
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Comment #19 Removed by Moderator

To: Chgogal

What say you about the Feds ability to stick “their claws’ into mutual funds, money funds, etc., and anything that moves”?

I would give my thoughts but my comment would probably be removed also.


20 posted on 07/07/2014 4:33:53 AM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin
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To: Chgogal

When you say “Feds” do you mean “Federal reserve” or “Federal Government” because my answer would be very different.


21 posted on 07/07/2014 5:17:27 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: M Kehoe
Not yet...


22 posted on 07/07/2014 5:54:29 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: All

I hope this doesn’t spread

Truckers strike at Los Angeles, Long Beach ports
http://www.ktbs.com/story/25957772/truckers-strike-at-los-angeles-long-beach-ports


23 posted on 07/07/2014 2:04:37 PM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin
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To: Chgogal; Wyatt's Torch
It wasn't me that was saying that, but Steve Forbes on a question and answer session with a small group of people. I believe he had just written a book.

In answering a question, Mr. Forbes said that after the election the Feds are going to, quote, stick their claws into mutual funds, etc. He didn't elaborate. Nor did he show any approval or disapproval that I could tell. My impression (right or wrong) is that the gov’t meddling is a done deal. I don't know if it's called for by Dodd-Frank or not.

I came in very late to the session (Bloomberg TV) and only saw the last five minutes or so. But I thought what little I did hear was troubling, to say the least.

24 posted on 07/07/2014 8:02:58 PM PDT by MichaelCorleone (Jesus Christ is not a religion. He's the Truth.)
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To: Wyatt's Torch; Chgogal

I can answer that; I was quoting Steve Forbes. I’m reasonably sure he was referring to the Federal Government.


25 posted on 07/07/2014 8:06:46 PM PDT by MichaelCorleone (Jesus Christ is not a religion. He's the Truth.)
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To: abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; AK_47_7.62x39; Aliska; Aquamarine; Archie Bunker on steroids; ...

So yesterday we had metals flat and stocks falling and today we're seeing metals solidly up with stocks continuing to fall.  Reports today -JOLTS - Job Openings and Consumer Credit.  Headlines direct from  the Confirmation Bias Newsdesk:


26 posted on 07/08/2014 4:22:09 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: MichaelCorleone; Wyatt's Torch; Chgogal; Lurkina.n.Learnin
These are from The 40-Year Evolution of the US Stock Market in One Single GIF - Quartz: (click on 'em to make 'em big):

Someone please help me think on this...

27 posted on 07/08/2014 4:49:21 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

I tried. Now my head hurts.


28 posted on 07/08/2014 5:35:29 AM PDT by BipolarBob (Obama - The Scandal a Week President.)
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To: expat_panama

Great?! Not hardly. When I get the 1st Qtr 401k statement in a few days, I’ll be greatly paring my future stock allocations as well as moving a good portion of the accumulated stock money into bonds/cash/safer funds, etc.

The market won’t levitate on printed Fed money forever. And I don’t consider the June performance of losing 500K full-time jobs while gaining 1M part-time jobs anything but flat to bad.

Prices going up as wages and hours worked go down and the subsistence rolls swell is not a recipe for prosperity.


29 posted on 07/08/2014 6:29:42 AM PDT by citizen (There is always free government cheese in the mouse trap.....https://twitter.com/kracker0)
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To: citizen

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCmkZFMSuFQ


30 posted on 07/08/2014 7:59:37 AM PDT by BipolarBob (Obama - The Scandal a Week President.)
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To: BipolarBob

hey that was neat!


31 posted on 07/08/2014 9:04:26 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama; citizen
"Let them lead you
up in the air"

Just trying to cheer up citizen.

32 posted on 07/08/2014 9:32:35 AM PDT by BipolarBob (Obama - The Scandal a Week President.)
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To: BipolarBob

Let the good times roll!


33 posted on 07/08/2014 9:50:14 AM PDT by citizen (There is always free government cheese in the mouse trap.....https://twitter.com/kracker0)
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To: Lurkina.n.Learnin

“Truckers strike at Los Angeles, Long Beach ports”

Two jurisdictions, side by side, make up the biggest shipping port in the United States.


34 posted on 07/08/2014 10:06:02 AM PDT by truth_seeker
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To: expat_panama; Wyatt's Torch
Can either of you confirm or refute the claim that our government plans on meddling in the investment fund business? Do you have an opinion on what the fallout might be if true?

Since the banking and investment industry is already heavily regulated, it's hard to see how more is better. If you would share your thoughts on this we would all benefit and appreciate it.

35 posted on 07/08/2014 8:28:23 PM PDT by MichaelCorleone (Jesus Christ is not a religion. He's the Truth.)
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To: abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; AK_47_7.62x39; Aliska; Aquamarine; Archie Bunker on steroids; ...

--and a good morning to all!  Futures are seeing a continuing climb in metals after yesterday's gain while stocks are seen flat after yesterday's drop (bargain hunting after profit taking?); IBD's headline said it all: Stocks Keep Sliding; Market Under Pressure.  Reports today include MBA Mortgage Index, Crude Inventories, and FOMC Minutes.   Some news feeds:


36 posted on 07/09/2014 4:08:44 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

Good link >> • The Fed Increasingly Resembles Mexico’s Bank - Desmond Lachman, RCM << All should read.

Seems to me that the FED has become or, I guess, always was, an entity serving first it’s political and Wall Street masters and secondly following sound financial policy.

By inflating up one bubble or another the FED pleases the current political administration while assuring that the rich get richer via easy money and inflated asset value.

The rest of us suffer greatly while paying for it all as the bubble inflates and certainly when it bursts.

I’ll be largely abandoning stocks for safer havens soon.


37 posted on 07/09/2014 5:09:55 AM PDT by citizen (There is always free government cheese in the mouse trap.....https://twitter.com/kracker0)
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To: MichaelCorleone

When they propose confiscating wealth from 401k’s is when the shooting starts...


38 posted on 07/09/2014 5:45:55 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: MichaelCorleone; Wyatt's Torch
...confirm or refute the claim that our government plans on meddling in the investment fund business? ...   ...the banking and investment industry is already heavily regulated...

The facts I'm working with are that the left struggles to plunder as much of the nation's wealth as possible, and that incomes and corp profits are already maxed out on the right side of the Laffer curve, so that leaves seizing private wealth.  Other observable realities that we've seen already in Europe range from Cypress' 10% bite to Gorbachev's flat out confiscation of all private savings.  In the U.S. we saw the Executive Branch rob GM stockholders outright while expanding restrictions on capital flight of private savings (Banks, Fidelity Start Saying Sayonara To U.S. Expatriates ... news.investors.com).

So.  Other than that....

39 posted on 07/09/2014 5:48:21 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: MichaelCorleone

I have heard for years that the Dems want to target 401k’s and potentially impose a 10-20% “one time tax” where they just take the money. Been hearing that since the mid-90’s. The natural course of government is to regulate more. I have no doubt that the Dems think they can sell confiscation to voters by demagoguing those with 401k’s as “rich” and “greedy”. And given the makeup of the electorate it’s an easy sell. And you will have rich Dems being okay with it because most of their wealth will be protected. The ones who will get killed are the middle class. As always.


40 posted on 07/09/2014 5:51:11 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch; MichaelCorleone
When they propose confiscating wealth from 401k’s is when the shooting starts...

--which is why it will most likely be simply put into affect without any overtly announced proposal before hand.  Another bet is that it'll happen in stages beginning with raising the existing taxes (aka SEC fees) on stock trades--(Democrats revive financial transaction tax idea | Reuters) and then stepping up the war on the wealthy with say, a national property tax.

41 posted on 07/09/2014 6:05:39 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: citizen
abandoning stocks for safer havens

fwiw, yesterday I closed all my individual stock positions and am now down to ETF's and mutual funds.  This is part for market timing but mostly just going with what's been working best.

42 posted on 07/09/2014 6:15:31 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama
On a separate note...
43 posted on 07/09/2014 6:23:01 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch

tx!

There are a lot of sides to the current econ climate, and it takes a bit of effort to hold back the negativism. Was thinking of how often on these threads that more bank loans is a good things, but more people going into debt is a bad thing.

Go figure.


44 posted on 07/09/2014 6:53:16 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

Like it or not credit is the lifeblood of economic activity. This is a very positive sign for economic activity and for monetary policy.


45 posted on 07/09/2014 7:01:08 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch
...credit is the lifeblood of economic activity...

True, and that means over the past few years the private sector has been anemic while the federal governments shows signs of hemorrhaging.  All things considered though my personal view is of a guarded recovery in both areas.

46 posted on 07/09/2014 7:26:16 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama
Well, well! Lookie here.

Fed, Confident in Economy, Details End of Bond-Buying Program
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-confident-economy-details-end-180158795.html

47 posted on 07/09/2014 11:41:42 AM PDT by Chgogal (Obama "hung the SEALs out to dry, basically exposed them like a set of dog balls..." CMH)
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To: All
Stock tip of the day - sell Costco.
48 posted on 07/09/2014 12:28:51 PM PDT by Aquamarine
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To: expat_panama; Wyatt's Torch

Thanks for your input. I’ve come to lean on your insights on the weekly thread to check on what I’m doing and/or thinking. And I’ll bet I’m not the only one either.

It’s scary to think of the possibility that some or all of the money you’ve worked and sacrificed for can so easily be taken away from you for no other reason than they ‘just need it’.

Thanks again.


49 posted on 07/09/2014 7:53:12 PM PDT by MichaelCorleone (Jesus Christ is not a religion. He's the Truth.)
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To: abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; AK_47_7.62x39; Aliska; Aquamarine; Archie Bunker on steroids; ...

Whoa, we're really looking at a fight from stocks to metals now!  Yesterday's metals gains now have futures traders charging in while yesterday's modest stock come back in light volume (AKA "dead cat bounce") now sees futures traders fleeing.   Also for today's festivities are scheduled Initial + Continuing Claims along with Wholesale + Gas Inventories.

China says it's up to US to drive global economy BEIJING (AP) — China's finance minister said Wednesday that the country is not planning any new stimulus measures and it is up to the United States to drive the global economy. Associated Press

'Gridlock' Is What's Reviving the U.S. Economy - Merrill Matthews, Forbes


50 posted on 07/10/2014 3:34:07 AM PDT by expat_panama
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