Skip to comments.Investment & Finance Thread (week July 6 - July 12 edition) [my title: The Economy Looks Great!]
Posted on 07/06/2014 10:24:34 AM PDT by expat_panama
While coming into the second half of 2014 we just had the GDP and employment rpts, and what happened is we got what seemed to be contradictory -2.7% and +6.3 bombshells. On the other hand (Truman hated economists saying that) a look at the year over year GDP return along with the employment/population ratio puts the two together.
[click to enlarge]
The reason GDP growth looks solid is because that -2.7% was just one Qtr to the next, so last week's rpt tells us more about how good Q4 was than it does about how bad Q1 turned out. Something else is the fact that over this past 1/2 year employment/population is finally making a move --a move we've not seen since the "recovery" began in '09.
OK, so last week I said "IMHO we're in an economy where we can still make money but it's just going to take more effort", but judging how stocks'n'metals are now rising up from this year's base there's reason to think that it may not take as much effort after all...
This is the thread where folks swap ideas on savings and investment --here's a list of popular investing links that freepers have posted here and tomorrow morning we'll go on with our--
Open invitation continues always for idea-input for the thread, this being a joint effort works well. Keywords: financial, WallStreet, stockmarket, economy.
—so there’s nothing to have worried about after all ping.
Thanks for the ping
truly my pleasure
Business events scheduled for the coming week
Business events scheduled for the coming week
Business events and economic reports scheduled for the coming week
By The Associated Press
July 3, 2014 1:58 PM
All times are Eastern.
MONDAY, July 7
BERLIN Germany’s Economy Ministry releases May industrial production figures for Europe’s biggest economy.
TUESDAY, July 8
WASHINGTON Labor Department releases job openings and labor turnover survey for May, 10 a.m.; Federal Reserve releases consumer credit data for May, 3 p.m.
BERLIN Germany’s Federal Statistical Office releases export and import data for May.
Alcoa Inc. reports quarterly financial results after the market closes.
WEDNESDAY, July 9
WASHINGTON Federal Reserve releases minutes from its June interest-rate meeting.
THURSDAY, July 10
WASHINGTON Labor Department releases weekly jobless claims, 8:30 a.m.; Freddie Mac, the mortgage company, releases weekly mortgage rates, 10 a.m.; Commerce Department releases wholesale trade inventories for May, 10 a.m.
NEW YORK Selected chain retailers release June sales comparisons.
FRIDAY, July 11
WASHINGTON Treasury releases federal budget for June, 2 p.m.
Wells Fargo & Co. reports quarterly financial results before the market opens.
What? Great? Then why is gas higher? And what about groceries higher too?
The economy is not great.
So I don’t have to look this up myself, has the macro econ metric MV, ever went negative in the last 70 years?
Wall Street may not accurately reflect discretionary income. But the sound you hear is the sound of the middle class being squeezed. Take a deep breath. Say to yourself in meditation "One world government. One world standard of living. One world religion". Then everything will seem all right.
Wall Street may not accurately reflect discretionary income
lol!! --this reminds me of back when I was a civil engineer I'd get rich every time there was some big natural disaster for me to build new dams and roads. Now I'm working in the capital markets and I get rich when things in the labor markets have been horrible but are finally beginning to turn up.
Let's get together on what the facts are; five years ago ten million people lost their jobs and are still jobless. That's bad. What we got now is that the American people seem to have finally gotten the situation under control and it really does look like we're making it right. That's good.
Please help me out here, I'm not following how the money supply or velocity could be less than zero.
I’m sorry, it was a rhetorical question.
Ah, that explains it; I never get those right. I'm good at T/F or multiple choice but I always screw up on the essays and rhetoricals.
And there’s about $12 TRILLION in money sitting on the sidelines, waiting to come in with the right policies. A conservative (not Republican) Congress could unleash that capital flow as occurred in the 1990s under Schlickmeister.
He mentioned that after the Nov elections in ‘14 the Feds are going to be ‘sticking their claws’ into mutual funds, money funds, etc., and ‘anything that moves’. But that was it - no follow-up, no outrage, no suggestions on what to do about it - he just seemed resigned to the fact that it's going to happen.
Assuming this comes to pass, what will it mean for the markets, the fund management business, and the average Joe's retirement money, in your estimation?
What say you about the Feds ability to stick their claws into mutual funds, money funds, etc., and anything that moves?
I would give my thoughts but my comment would probably be removed also.
When you say “Feds” do you mean “Federal reserve” or “Federal Government” because my answer would be very different.
I hope this doesn’t spread
Truckers strike at Los Angeles, Long Beach ports
In answering a question, Mr. Forbes said that after the election the Feds are going to, quote, stick their claws into mutual funds, etc. He didn't elaborate. Nor did he show any approval or disapproval that I could tell. My impression (right or wrong) is that the gov’t meddling is a done deal. I don't know if it's called for by Dodd-Frank or not.
I came in very late to the session (Bloomberg TV) and only saw the last five minutes or so. But I thought what little I did hear was troubling, to say the least.
I can answer that; I was quoting Steve Forbes. I’m reasonably sure he was referring to the Federal Government.
So yesterday we had metals flat and stocks falling and today we're seeing metals solidly up with stocks continuing to fall. Reports today -JOLTS - Job Openings and Consumer Credit. Headlines direct from the Confirmation Bias Newsdesk:
Someone please help me think on this...
I tried. Now my head hurts.
Great?! Not hardly. When I get the 1st Qtr 401k statement in a few days, I’ll be greatly paring my future stock allocations as well as moving a good portion of the accumulated stock money into bonds/cash/safer funds, etc.
The market won’t levitate on printed Fed money forever. And I don’t consider the June performance of losing 500K full-time jobs while gaining 1M part-time jobs anything but flat to bad.
Prices going up as wages and hours worked go down and the subsistence rolls swell is not a recipe for prosperity.
hey that was neat!
Just trying to cheer up citizen.
Let the good times roll!
“Truckers strike at Los Angeles, Long Beach ports”
Two jurisdictions, side by side, make up the biggest shipping port in the United States.
Since the banking and investment industry is already heavily regulated, it's hard to see how more is better. If you would share your thoughts on this we would all benefit and appreciate it.
--and a good morning to all! Futures are seeing a continuing climb in metals after yesterday's gain while stocks are seen flat after yesterday's drop (bargain hunting after profit taking?); IBD's headline said it all: Stocks Keep Sliding; Market Under Pressure. Reports today include MBA Mortgage Index, Crude Inventories, and FOMC Minutes. Some news feeds:
- Wall Street retreats Business Recorder - 6 hours ago US stocks dipped on Monday, retreating from last week's record levels as investors hesitated to make big bets before the start of earnings season.
- World stocks stumble as gains reassessed Boston Herald - 2 hours ago TOKYO - Asian stocks fell for a third day Wednesday and European markets traded tepidly as caution spread ahead of corporate earnings and after record highs on Wall Street.
- Shale boom confounds forecasts as U.S. set to pass Russia, Saudi Arabia Four years into the shale revolution, the U.S. is on track to pass Russia and Saudi Arabia as the world's largest producer of crude oil, most analysts agree.
- Government made $100B in improper payments
- 7 market myths that make investors poorer By better understanding the financial markets and our behavioral flaws, we can increase the odds of achieving our financial goals, writes Cullen Roche. MarketWatch
- Looking For Inflation In All The Wrong Places - Sigmund, Sigmund Holmes
- The Fed Increasingly Resembles Mexico's Bank - Desmond Lachman, RCM
- Yellen Winning Debate For More Regs - Darrell Delamaide, MarketWatch
- The Fed's 'Blunt Instrument' Engineers Instability - Caroline Baum, RCM
- U.S., Why Not Beat Up On Your Own Banks? - Leonid Bershidsky, Bloomberg
Good link >> The Fed Increasingly Resembles Mexico’s Bank - Desmond Lachman, RCM << All should read.
Seems to me that the FED has become or, I guess, always was, an entity serving first it’s political and Wall Street masters and secondly following sound financial policy.
By inflating up one bubble or another the FED pleases the current political administration while assuring that the rich get richer via easy money and inflated asset value.
The rest of us suffer greatly while paying for it all as the bubble inflates and certainly when it bursts.
I’ll be largely abandoning stocks for safer havens soon.
When they propose confiscating wealth from 401k’s is when the shooting starts...
The facts I'm working with are that the left struggles to plunder as much of the nation's wealth as possible, and that incomes and corp profits are already maxed out on the right side of the Laffer curve, so that leaves seizing private wealth. Other observable realities that we've seen already in Europe range from Cypress' 10% bite to Gorbachev's flat out confiscation of all private savings. In the U.S. we saw the Executive Branch rob GM stockholders outright while expanding restrictions on capital flight of private savings (Banks, Fidelity Start Saying Sayonara To U.S. Expatriates ... news.investors.com).
So. Other than that....
I have heard for years that the Dems want to target 401k’s and potentially impose a 10-20% “one time tax” where they just take the money. Been hearing that since the mid-90’s. The natural course of government is to regulate more. I have no doubt that the Dems think they can sell confiscation to voters by demagoguing those with 401k’s as “rich” and “greedy”. And given the makeup of the electorate it’s an easy sell. And you will have rich Dems being okay with it because most of their wealth will be protected. The ones who will get killed are the middle class. As always.
--which is why it will most likely be simply put into affect without any overtly announced proposal before hand. Another bet is that it'll happen in stages beginning with raising the existing taxes (aka SEC fees) on stock trades--(Democrats revive financial transaction tax idea | Reuters) and then stepping up the war on the wealthy with say, a national property tax.
fwiw, yesterday I closed all my individual stock positions and am now down to ETF's and mutual funds. This is part for market timing but mostly just going with what's been working best.
There are a lot of sides to the current econ climate, and it takes a bit of effort to hold back the negativism. Was thinking of how often on these threads that more bank loans is a good things, but more people going into debt is a bad thing.
Like it or not credit is the lifeblood of economic activity. This is a very positive sign for economic activity and for monetary policy.
True, and that means over the past few years the private sector has been anemic while the federal governments shows signs of hemorrhaging. All things considered though my personal view is of a guarded recovery in both areas.
Fed, Confident in Economy, Details End of Bond-Buying Program
Thanks for your input. I’ve come to lean on your insights on the weekly thread to check on what I’m doing and/or thinking. And I’ll bet I’m not the only one either.
It’s scary to think of the possibility that some or all of the money you’ve worked and sacrificed for can so easily be taken away from you for no other reason than they ‘just need it’.
Whoa, we're really looking at a fight from stocks to metals now! Yesterday's metals gains now have futures traders charging in while yesterday's modest stock come back in light volume (AKA "dead cat bounce") now sees futures traders fleeing. Also for today's festivities are scheduled Initial + Continuing Claims along with Wholesale + Gas Inventories.
China says it's up to US to drive global economy BEIJING (AP) China's finance minister said Wednesday that the country is not planning any new stimulus measures and it is up to the United States to drive the global economy. Associated Press
'Gridlock' Is What's Reviving the U.S. Economy - Merrill Matthews, Forbes