Tom Cotton slightly ahead of Mark Pryor in Arkansas (poll)

Impact Management ^ | June 29, 2014

[Clintonfatigued]

Now, thinking about the U. S. Senate race in 2014… if the candidates are Senator Mark Pryor, the Democrat, and Congressman Tom Cotton, the Republican… For whom would you vote?

Press 1. Senator Mark Pryor 43%

Press 2. Congressman Tom Cotton 47%

Press 3. Undecided 10%

[SeekAndFind]

OK, what is the accuracy record of this Impact Management Poll?

[Clintonfatigued]

This is a Republican pollster with some leading questions before the poll results, but it’s still around even between the two and Pryor getting less than 50%. In spite of Cotton’s imperfections as a candidate, I expect a pickup here, albeit by a close margin.

[Clintonfatigued]

I don’t know the answer to that, I only know that it’s a Little Rock based polling firm with Republican clients.

[Will88]

Arkansas sent Blanche Lincoln packing by a decent margin, so maybe in Novemeber they will look past the famous political name and do the same with Pryor. That state needs to wean themselves entirely from Democrats in statewide elections.

[RIghtwardHo]

Terrible.

Need a real poll. Saw one the other day that had Pryor up by 1. Wish I could remember who. Had a decent track record. Still . . . WAY early to put much stock in any poll.

[Linda Frances]

Real clear politics

Arkansas Senate - Cotton vs. Pryor
Candidates

Tom Cotton (R)
Bio | Campaign Site

Mark Pryor (D)*
Bio | Campaign Site
Arkansas Snapshot
RCP Average: Cotton +2.8
RCP Ranking: Toss Up
2014 Key Races: Governor | AR-2 | AR-4
—————PAST KEY RACES—————
2012: President
2010: Governor | Senate | AR-1 | AR-2 | AR-4
2008: President
2006: Governor | AR-1 | AR-2 | AR-3 | AR-4
2004: President | Senate | AR-2
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE Cotton (R) Pryor (D) Spread
RCP Average 4/25 - 6/29 — — 46.3 43.5 Cotton +2.8
Impact Management Group (R) 6/29 - 6/29 1290 RV 2.7 47 43 Cotton +4
Magellan Strategies (R) 6/4 - 6/5 755 LV 3.6 49 45 Cotton +4
Rasmussen Reports 5/27 - 5/28 750 LV 4.0 47 43 Cotton +4
PPP (D) 4/25 - 4/27 840 RV 3.4 42 43 Pryor +1
All Arkansas Senate - Cotton vs. Pryor Polling Data

[KC Burke]

thanks Linda

[Impy]

What are Cotton’s imperfections?

[Clintonfatigued]

He’s very uptight on the campaign trail and he recently ran a bad ad. I don’t believe either of these to be fatal. In fact, I still rate Cotton a marginal favorite, though Pryor is not the pushover I hoped he would be.