Skip to comments.Investment & Finance Thread (week July 13 - July 19 edition)
Posted on 07/13/2014 4:06:02 PM PDT by expat_panama
Condensed version: this past week's metals 'n stock indexes saw a (imho) a flat decision making base --not sure how metals volume went but stocks had high volume for the dips & low for the rebounds --bearish, a situation IBD calls 'uptrend under pressure'. fwiw, their distribution day count is running at 6 for the S&P and 4 for the NASDAQ.
Fortunately I can now say what the upcoming week's going to be; it'll be "interesting".
This is the thread where folks swap ideas on savings and investment --here's a list of popular investing links that freepers have posted here and tomorrow morning we'll go on with our--
Open invitation continues always for idea-input for the thread, this being a joint effort works well. Keywords: financial, WallStreet, stockmarket, economy.
Sunday nite ping.
Sold all non gold and silver related stuff one week ago. It is 2007 again but worse.
If i were to cash out some inherited iras what kind of pemalty would i have to pay?
I would think that info would be on your IRA account website. There are Roth IRAs and standard. I think age may play a factor as well. If you have a CPA do your taxes they may be able to help you as well.
What’s your opinion on OUNZ? I am holding (until death I suppose) SLW and SVBL.
I’m throwing this tech spec stock out here for criticism/review - MOBL. I am waiting for it to stop dropping before getting my feet wet on this one unless somebody talks me out of it (hint hint).
You’ll have to ask someone who knows for sure but I believe there is no penalties but it would be taxed as ordinary income.
From Portugal to Puerto Rico Disrupt Complacency
Not too late to buy Mannkind. MNKD. GOOD NEWS ahead the next week on buyout or partnership.
--and a beautiful day to all! At four hours before the bell futures marts have stocks up & metals down;
MANNKIND CORP RANK WITHIN THE MEDICAL-BIOMED/BIOTECH GROUP (324 STOCKS)
- Composite Rating 57 Rank within Group: 39th
- EPS Rating 33 Rank within Group: 102nd
- Relative Strength Rating 98 Rank within Group: 16th
- SMR Rating(N/A) Rank within Group: N/A
- Acc/Dist. Rating B- Rank within Group: 103rd
Let's see what happens, be a good test of IBD...
Johnathan Clements has rejoined the WSJ, writing a Sunday column. Used to read him all the time, as IMO, he is one of the best personal finance writers ever.
He blends the time-tested methods of wealth-building with the everyday task of living.
tx! Finding a lot in the link WSJ ARTICLES
I was lucky, I learned what he said at a young age.
Seems as if we're moving from yesterday's rebound in both metals and stocks into today's expectations of more metals gains with falling stocks. Cincy opined to Chgogal out stocks sure look like they're setting up a "sucker's rally" and while IBD shows Stocks Extend Their Recovery Effort the "higher"volume is still below average. The question seems to be in the buzz:
Are Correction Conditions Rising, Fading? - Michael Gayed, MarketWatch
Don't Be Surprised If Stock Market Reverses Itself - Vitaliy Katsenelson, II
Divining Direction of Markets Is a Loser's Game - John Kimelman, Barron's
Why Investors Shouldn't Listen To Economists - Mohamed El-Erian
Valuations: Is the Stock Market Overpriced? - Chris Ciovacco, Ciovacco Cap
looks like it so far, tho there are a lot of rebounds that look like this too...
Janet Yellen don’t like small caps, biotech or social media.
That’s an eye opener. iPhone and iTunes are all that’s growing.
Lends a lot of credence to Jobs’s “post PC world” statement he was ridiculed for. The iPhone 6 is going to be a monster with all the 4 and 4S upgrades.
Alan Mulally going to Google.
On Google’s board.
an eye opener
Whoa... Things just aren't the way they used to be, but I 'spose they really never were anyway...
The massive stock split was also a dead giveaway that this company is positioning itself as a divvy play rather than a growth stock. Good company, but those who think their recent history and growth will continue do this at their own peril.
Make that 4 out of 6, with one with phenomenal growth, and one with growth beating expectations.
It's not revenue or sales that mean a sector's clicking, it's profit and that's where AAPL shines--
True, their stock price sagged in '13 but since it's soared by 50% and the IBD check up is stellar:
APPLE INC RANK WITHIN THE COMPUTER-HARDWARE/PERIP GROUP (17 STOCKS)
- Composite Rating 98 Rank within Group: 2nd
- EPS Rating 89 Rank within Group: 4th
- Relative Strength Rating 93 Rank within Group: 5th
- SMR Rating A Rank within Group: 1st
Best in Group
- Acc/Dist. Rating B Rank within Group: 5th
Good morning and a happy midweek/midmonth to all! Talk about indecision, after yesterday's metals jump & stock hit the future's guys have now reversed that. Again. Lots of reports today:
MBA Mortgage Index
Net Long-Term TIC Flows
NAHB Housing Market Index
Fed's Beige Book
Good morning! Here’s what you need to know:
IBM And Apple?! “Apple announced Tuesday a partnership with IBM that will help the company greatly increase the presence of its mobile devices in the enterprise,” reported BI’s Sam Colt. “IBM will use its sales force to sell iPhones and iPads to its network of business customers. IBM will also develop cloud services optimized for iOS, the operating system for iPhones and iPads.”
China’s Answers The Growth Question. China’s GDP grew at a 7.5% rate in Q2, up from 7.4% in Q1. This was stronger than economists’ expectations for a 7.4% rate. “The major driver is Beijings stimulus measures focusing on increasing spending on railway and social housing with its own money,” said Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Ting Lu. “The negative impact of the stimulus on the financial system is thus relatively small. We believe Beijing is quite serious about its 7.5% growth target as it needs a stable economic and financial backdrop as it steps up its anti-corruption campaign, so the new government will most likely continue its mini-stimulus in the face of higher base effect and some strong headwinds in 2H.”
Yahoo! Whiffs. “Our top priority is revenue growth and by that measure, we are not satisfied with our Q2 results,” said Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer. Revenue ex-traffic acquisition costs fell 3% to $1.04 billion, missing expectations for $1.09 billion.
Intel Beats. “The second quarter came in above the expectations we provided in the April Earnings call, and consistent with the revised outlook we released on June 12,” said Intel CFO Stacy Smith. “It was a good quarter representing financial growth and solid momentum as we approach the second half of the year.” Intel reported Q2 EPS of $0.55 on revenue of $13.8 billion. Analysts were expecting earnings per share of $0.52 on revenue of $13.71 billion.
The Inflation Story Just Got Serious. The Hershey Company announced that it would be raising prices in response to rising costs. “A weighted average price increase of approximately 8 percent across the company’s instant consumable, multi-pack, packaged candy and grocery lines is effective today,” said the company in a Tuesday afternoon press release.
Markets Are Up. Dow futures are up 52 points and S&P futures are up 5.8 points. In Europe, Britain’s FTSE is up 0.93%, France’s CAC 40 is up 1.4%, and Germany’s DAX is up 1.2%. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed down 0.1% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 0.2%. CNBC and Institutional Investor will host their annual Delivering Alpha conference today in New York City, and these events always have the potential to move markets. Attendees will include hedge fund giants John Paulson and Leon Cooperman. We’ll have live coverage of the event at BusinessInsider.com/Finance.
An Inflation Update. The June producer price report will be published at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists estimate PPI climbed by 0.2%. Year-over-year, they estimate prices climbed by 1.9%, with core PPI climbing 1.7%. “Farm prices declined again in June and should put downward pressure on producer prices,” said Nomura economists. “However, the jump in energy prices should put upward pressure on headline PPI.”
An Industrial Production Update. The June Industrial Production report will be published at 9:15 a.m. ET. Economists estimate industrial production increased 0.3% in June as capacity utilization climbed to 79.3% from 79.1%. “A small gain in factory hours worked in the employment report and industry figures pointing to a modest drop in motor vehicle assemblies ahead of a scheduled rise to an eleven-year high in July point to a 0.2% gain in manufacturing output after a 2.8% surge over the prior four months,” said Morgan Stanley’s Ted Wieseman. “Some upside in utility production after a sharp spring pullback following a surge in the winter and a continued strong trend in oil and gas drilling should provide additional boosts to overall IP.”
A Housing Market Update. The July NAHB Housing Market Index will be updated at 10:00 a.m. ET. Economists estimate this homebuilder confidence index ticked up to 50 in July. “Sentiment had been above 50 until February when presumably the harsh weather weighed on builder expectations,” noted BofA Merrill Lynch economists. “New home sales have improved, and it seems that the late start to the spring season will support the homebuilding industry.”
Fed And More Fed. Fed Chair Janet Yellen presents her Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the House Committee on Financial Services at 10:00 a.m. ET. She’ll be repeating what she said before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. Fed watchers are likely to pay closer attention to the Fed’s Beige Book, which gets released at 2:00 p.m. ET. Here’s Credit Suisse: “The pictures painted by recent Beige Books may not illustrate robust growth, but they suggest the economy is at least moving in the right direction (with that -2.9% Q1 GDP print looking like a significant aberration). The July 16 Beige Book may provide real-world anecdotes to supplement the better labor market data reported recently. Any observations from business contacts related to wage growth or pricing power also would be of particular market interest at this juncture.”
So inflation’s higher than expected and production’s less...
Homebuilder sentiment way up though :-)
Stone-McCarthy Analysis of PPI:
June PPI Analysis-Gasoline Prices Provided a Lift
Key “Take Aways”
(1) PPI Final Demand -+0.4%, Core +0.2%
(2) PPI up 1.9% yoy, Core +1.8%
(3) PPI Goods +0.5%, PPI Services +0.3%
(4) PPI Personal Consumption +0.5%, yoy +2.2%
(5) PPI Finished Goods +0.7%, yoy +2.7% (Old PPI)
—Stone & McCarthy (Princeton)— The June PPI rose 0.4% after declining 0.2% in May and rising 0.6% in April. The June increase was a little stronger than expected owing largely to the goods sector, especially energy.
The PPI has become more difficult to project, as the coverage of the PPI in its new form has basically tripled. Compared to a year earlier the new headline PPI increased by 1.9%, a downtick from 2.0% in May, but still elevated in comparison to the past 2 years.
The PPI for Personal Consumption Goods & Services rose a sharp 0.5% in June following a decline of 0.2% in May. This accounts for about 2/3rds of the overall PPI Final Demand.
The old version of the PPI, that is the PPI for Finished Goods rose a sharp 0.7% in June following a 0.1% dip in May for a 12-month increase of 2.7%.
Of course, the big difference between the New and the Old versions of the PPI is that the new version is mostly Services, whereas the old version was only Finished Goods.
The New Core PPI rose 0.2% after inching down 0.1% in rising 0.5% in April. Compared to June 2013 this series was up 1.8%, a deceleration from 2.0% in the 12-months ending May.
The PPI for Goods surged 0.5% after inching down 0.2% in May, and rising 0.6% in April. Food Prices declined 0.2% same as in May, after spurting 2.7% in April. Energy prices rose 2.1% in June after inching down 0.2% in May. The rise in energy prices was an artifact of a 6.4% gain in gasoline prices.
The Core Price measure for Goods was up only 0.1% in June after being flat in May. This series was up 1.5% in comparison to June 2013, similar to recent months, but stronger than in 2013.
The PPI for Services rose 0.3% in June following a 0.2% dip in April and a 0.6% gain in March.
The PPI for Personal Consumption rose a robust 0.5% in June following a 0.2% dip in May and a 076% gain in April. The big swing factor herein was a 0.9% increase in the PPI for the PCE for Goods, led by energy goods. The PPI for the PCE for Services rose 0.3% in June following a 0.2% decline in May, and a 0.7% gain in April.
The PPI for Personal Consumption tends to exhibit a pattern similar to the overall PCE deflator, although the 2 series are not identically aligned.
In the 12-months ending June the PPI for Personal Consumption was up 2.2%, down a hair from a 2.3% gain in the 12-months ending May.
Wells Fargo analysis:
June Understates Solid Trend in Industrial Production
Industrial production ticked up 0.2 percent in June. While a slightly softer-than-expected print, production rose at a 5.5 percent annualized rate over the second quarter, indicating the overall trend remains solid.
Softer Growth in the Industrial Sector in June, but Trend Strong Industrial production came in a tick softer than expected for June, increasing only 0.2 percent. May data was also revised 0.1 percentage point lower, but was more than offset by a 0.3 percentage point upward revision for April. Including the revisions and looking at growth across the three major industry groups, the trend in the industrial sector remains strong.
First, relatively temperate summer weather led to a 0.3 percent decline in utilities output over the month. June marks the fifth-straight month that utilities, which are hardly a bellwether of the underlying trend in the economy, have been a drag on industrial production.
Second, activity in the mining sector, which accounts for about 16 percent of the industrial sector, remains gangbusters. After registering another solid gain in June, production rose at a striking 18.8 percent annualized rate in the second quarter.
Third, although production in the manufacturing industry ticked up only 0.1 percent in June, the rise comes on the heels of four months of solid gains. For the second quarter, production increased at an annualized rate of 7.0 percent, the fastest clip since the start of 2012. Durable goods production was up 0.4 percent over the month, with the only areas of softness stemming from machinery and motor vehicles productiontwo industries which have remained above-average performers over the past year. Moreover, the decline in autos production comes after a month of strong sales to dealers and slow sales to consumers, so some reining in of production may have been needed to keep inventories in check.
Pricing Pressures to Come?
Capacity utilization held steady in June as a rise in mining utilization offset a slight decline in utilities and manufacturing utilization. In todays report, the Federal Reserve lowered estimates for capacity growth in the manufacturing sector, expecting an increase of only 2.2 percent in 2014. With the trend in manufacturing production running comfortably above 3 percent, price pressures in the manufacturing sector may be building more quickly than expected.
Near-Term Outlook for Manufacturing Remains Bright
Yesterdays Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the New York Fed offers some encouragement for the near-term path of manufacturing. The index rose to more than a four-year high with solid readings on shipments, new orders and employment. The survey is the first of the July purchasing
managers indices to be released, although most of the June regional PMIs and national ISM manufacturing index remain firmly in positive territory. We look for industrial production to continue to advance at over a 4 percent annualized rate in the second half of the year.
That’s an important trend; I’ll see if I can update that to 2014...
Been looking for a similar chart for Russel 2000. No luck so far.
(Talking to my broker this afternoon.)
So metals continuing gains yesterday are leading into more w/ today's futures traders, and what's interesting this time w/ stock indexes is yesterday's gains were in higher volume --but just the same we still got stock futures fairly negative anyway this morning. Maybe it's all the reports coming out today--
Natural Gas Inventories
--or the news:
Microsoft may announce its biggest layoffs ever on Thursday
They’re a market leader, the layoffs may be part of the skittishness...
Housing starts plunge...
893K vs 1020K consensus est
Prior two months revised down as well.
Single family permits up.
I usually try to be aware of big changes like that but some how that on snuck under the radar...
Ukraine is back.