Skip to comments.CBO: In 25 Years, Federal Debt Held by the Public Will Exceed 100% of GDP
Posted on 07/17/2014 3:36:05 AM PDT by markomalley
Despite a sharp projected rise in personal income taxes over the next 25 years, federal debt held by the public will exceed 100 percent of the nations Gross Domestic Product (GDP), reaching 106 percent of GDP by 2039 if current laws remain unchanged, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported July 15.
In addition, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow faster than the economy starting a few years from now, and because debt is already unusually high relative to GDP, further increases could be especially harmful, the CBO warned.
Between 2009 and 2012, the federal government recorded the largest budget deficits relative to the size of the economy since 1946, causing its debt to soar, the CBOs 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook noted.
The total amount of federal debt held by the public is now equivalent to about 74 percent of the economys annual output, which is a higher percentage than at any point in U.S. history, except a brief period around World War II, the study said.
In contrast, the national debt stood at 39 percent of GDP at the end of 2008, the CBO noted.
This massive debt will continue to increase over the next two decades due to an aging population, rising healthcare costs and an expansion of federal subsidies for health insurance, the CBO stated.
The cost of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and subsidies through the Affordable Care Act will rise to 14 percent of GDP, or double what its been in the past, the non-partisan government agency reported, adding that this is a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.
Though federal debt held by the public is slated to remain around the current 74 percent of GDP between 2015 and 2020, it will reach 78 percent by 2024 and total around $7.6 trillion. Government revenues will also increase relative to GDP, but spending will greatly outpace it., the CBO warned.
During that same time period, individual income taxes are projected to increase from 8 percent to 10.5 percent of GDP while interest rates rise from their currently low levels, putting more stress on Americans struggling to make ends meet.
The report lists some of the negative consequences of carrying such a large debt, which it says will impede the ability of the federal government to respond to a future economic crisis. High debt could also hurt the U.S. credibility with investors who may doubt the countrys ability to pay it off, leading to even higher interest rates if the government needs to take out new loans.
The CBO warns that there are no quick fixes, and that immediate spending cuts or tax increases will weaken economic expansion in the coming years. But in order to put the federal budget on a sustainable course, the CBO recommends "reducing spending for large benefit programs below the projected levels, letting revenues rise more than they would under the current law, or adopting some combination of those approaches."
Fixing the problem years from now would represent a greater drag on output and income in the long term and would increase the size of the policy changes needed to reach any chosen target for debt, the report noted.
Yes it is. And we’re living it.
I’ll wager that if they stopped cookin the books, we’ve already exceeded the 100% threshold. I really like the part about “projected” tax increases, like they’re just being kicked around with heavy hand wringing.
“will exceed 100 percent of the nations Gross Domestic Product (GDP),”
Will exceed??? Horse hockey. Another cooked book number by an administration that makes it’s living lieing to the American Citizen.
Take in all the unfunded liabilities we are not far behind Greece in this welfare state of ours.
Now figure in the millions of illegal brats that we will be paying for that Obama is recruiting for the Democratic party, sheeeeet we are there my FRiends.
As if this country will be around that long.
Over the past few decades there has been a fundamental shift from a nation that focused on and honored wealth and wealth creators to a nation that focused on and honored poverty. Most of what the government does now is about poverty and lack. Did not used to be that way. We are a people obsessed with poverty, lack, inability and hardship. And we will get more of that.
If you look our national debt plus unfunded liabilities it $200 trillion.
“Over the past few decades there has been a fundamental shift from a nation that focused on and honored wealth and wealth creators to a nation that focused on and honored poverty.”
If you go back to ancient Greece you’ll find that they considered poverty a virtue.
What is this horse pucky. Propaganda?
Is it word games on the part held by the public? Everyone acts like it is real. Where is the illusion.
Total public debt outstanding(National Debt) is 17.6 trillion.
GDP is less than 17 Trillion. That means that The national debt already exceeds GDP. In fact there was a big deal made about it already. In fact CNS themselves has it here:
So where is the trick in the words that I am missing. I feel like I am in the twilight zone.
Notice they do not say debt held by the public:
“In contrast, the national debt stood at 39 percent of GDP at the end of 2008, the CBO noted.”
The statement should read more like “The national debt already exceeds 105% of GDP in 2014.
“Though federal debt held by the public is slated to remain around the current 74 percent of GDP between 2015 and 2020, it will reach 78 percent by 2024 and total around $7.6 trillion.”
Already over 12 trillion(Debt held by the public) So how does this make sense.
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