Putin is banking on Obama, Cameron in Britain, and Merkel in Germany, doing a whole lot of postering and lecturing, but taking few actual measures that will directly effect Russia or their oil sales. Of all three ‘leaders’, Angela Merkel is the most likely to come down hard on Putin, at least rhetorically. Obama will continue to obfuscate, dither, and distract the public as much as possible.
I agree. The weakness of the West’s leaders does encourage Putin to get away with mass murder. He’s used plausible denial and ambiguity to hide his role in these crimes in Ukraine. This crime is a lot harder to deny. His apologists will have to work very hard to get him some cover.
He did promise KGB Putin prior to the last election that he would be more "flexible" in his next term.
President Obama: On all these issues, but particularly missile defense, this, this can be solved but it’s important for him [Putin] to give me space.
President Medvedev: Yeah, I understand. I understand your message about space. Space for you…
Obama: This is my last election. After my election I [will] have more flexibility.
Medvedev: I understand. I will transmit this information to Vladimir.
“but taking few actual measures that will directly effect Russia or their oil sales.”
In economics there are elastic demands and inelastic demands. Elastic demands are for luxuries like gum or a faster car. You can defer those or even chose not to purchase. But oil is like a broken leg. A broken leg creates an inelastic demand for medical service. The doctor, if he’s the only one, can charge whatever he feels like and you will pay it. This is why Putin has funded the anti-fracking nuts. We would be the competition for the European oil market. As long as there is little or no competition he can do anything he wants and Europe will turn a blind eye.