Skip to comments.Goodbye to the Republican Wave? [Promised Republican momentum has yet to materialize]
Posted on 07/21/2014 9:45:30 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Republicans entered this election cycle with high hopes. President Obamas approval ratings had sunk into the low 40s, and the rollout of the Affordable Care Act had been an unmitigated disaster. In an off-year election, Democrats werent expected to fully mobilize the young and diverse coalition that has given them an advantage in presidential elections. Off-years are also when a presidents party typically suffers significant losses.
This year seemed poised to turn into another so-called wave election, like in 2006 or 2010, when a rising tide of dissatisfaction with the incumbent party swept the opposition into power. Given a favorable midterm map, with so many Democratic Senate seats in play, some analysts suggested that Republicans could win a dozen of them, perhaps even picking up seats in states like Virginia, New Hampshire and Oregon.
The anti-Democratic wave might still arrive. But with three and a half months to go until Novembers elections, the promised Republican momentum has yet to materialize.
The race for the Senate, at least right now, is stable. There arent many polls asking whether voters would prefer Democrats or Republicans to control Congress, but the Democrats appear to maintain a slight edge among registered voters. Democratic incumbents in red Republican states, who would be all but doomed in a Republican wave, appear doggedly competitive in places where Mitt Romney won by as much as 24 points in 2012.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Republicans always snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
The NY Times’ wishful thinking?
Uh, the party establishment hasn’t exactly enthused their base.
Of course, Obama hasn’t enthused HIS base either.
The Republican Party is doing their best to squash any wave.
Yeah...consider the source....
We are still broiling over Missouri...
With their disgusting tactics in Mississippi, I’m not surprised. Who in their right mind would be saying, “I’m so excited to vote republican!”
So....if you were a young under employed person in Mississippi, would you be excited about the aging fossil Thad Cochran, or the energetic and young Chris McDaniel?
Not surprising that the stupid party might snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
But then again, this is after all the Slimes reporting it...
No matter what, the closet totalitarians among us will always pull the lever for a fellow totalitarian.
Maybe because the GOPE is doing its best to piss off the conservative base??
Attacking the TEA party and conservatives isn’t such a good campaign strategy after all??
We’ll see. My guess is that even low info voters have had it with this crappy economy. Forget everything else, it’s the economy stupid.
I think that this year it's driven by fed-up conservatives (such as myself) who are refusing to vote for RINO/GOP-e candidates under any circumstances, and who are willing to see the collapse of the Republican party because we don't see it as a credible alternative to the extreme Democrat leftist agenda.
Hey Nate bend over Obama has something for you.
National polls for local elections don’t matter, who they want to run things nationally doesn’t really change who they’ll vote for as their congressman or senator. It’s second midterm, GOP should make gains, unless they seriously misplay the hand like in 98.
I detect ZERO enthusiasm for the Republicans out there. Zero. Absolutely none.
That being said, the wave may still turn out with the sole purpose of punishing the Democrats.
Lol. Good wordplay there...: )
I’ve said for a while that the intentional purging of the Republican base by the Establishment will lead to a sweep by the Rats in November. It’s possible that the huge defeat is intentional, or at least as welcome by the party bosses. I’m guessing they want a thorough re-branding of the GOP. They’re embarrassed by the old ladies in wheelchairs holding American flags and young bearded men in cammo holding Gadsden Flags. They want a party the LIVs are comfortable with. You know, the people who don’t know our history, are drugged up with Aspartame and “Where’s My Pants”, and have been brainwashed by the Public Schools and MSM?
Anyway, the GOP will be big losers in November and they, and people on FR, will blame us.
The race for the Senate, at least right now, is stable. There arent many polls asking whether voters would prefer Democrats or Republicans to control Congress, but the Democrats appear to maintain a slight edge among registered voters.
Partnering with SocialSphere, Inc., of Cambridge, Massachusetts which designed and directed the survey POLITICO surveyed 834 likely voters in the states and districts with the most competitive Senate and House races, as ranked by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Conducted from July 3-13.
If the election for the [U.S. House of Representatives/U.S. Senate] were held today, would you vote for the [Democratic candidate] or the [Republican candidate] in [your district/your state]?
Republican candidate 39% Democratic candidate 37% Don't know 23%
Real Clear Politics shows, currently, GOP pickup of 6 senate seats. Election tomorrow: GOP controls Senate 51-49. Make what you want of that.
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
Their hatred for us, and the SEIU will bring them to the polls.
>> Republicans always snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
The GOP establishment to be precise.
Wishful thinking on the part of NYT.
Generally speaking the Party out of power makes significant gains in midterm elections. This is even more pronounced in the 6th year of an incumbent administration.
Moreover, the electorate in midterm elections is much different than is the case in presidential elections. The voters in midterm election tend to be older, whiter, and more dedicated, therefore more Republican, than is the case in presidential elections.
Furthermore, the illegal immigration issue is shaping up to be the number one issue this Fall, another factor which will drive up conservative and GOP numbers to the polls.
The GOP’s top down war against the republican base is demoralizing it, and helping to invigorate the democrats, and feeding talking points and image reinforcement into the media’s national narrative against the republicans.
“According to today’s Politico.com poll, you are on to something...”
Can we rely on what Politico says? I am under the impression that they are approaching the propaganda level of the NY Times.
Not in this case. I hate to agree with anything that is in the NY Times, other than the date, but I fail to see a groundswell of Republican support.
NYT reporter just whistling past the graveyard. Trouble is his whistling he might just wake up a lot Dem voters who reside there, yet still show up at the polls every year.
What? A party that stomps its own base into the dirt, even to the point of slandering them as KKK racists, quashes all debate, and betrays its own supposed platform every single day, is failing to build enthusiasm for electing its candidates?
Who’d a thunk it...
” I fail to see a groundswell of Republican support.”
I don’t detect a groundswell of Democrat support, either. As another poster pointed out, it may boil down not to which party the voters like the most, but which party the voters despise the most.
Conservatives are going to sit home in Mississippi. And I don’t blame them one damned bit. Mitch McConnell will lose to Grimes in Kentucky, and Pryor will hold on in Arkansas. Meanwhile, the Republicans are having their convention in Cleveland. The GOP has to die before anything changes.
“Nate Cohen?””” a Nate Silver wannabe..???
Which is why if there has ever been a time for a new political movement to emerge, the time is now....There has never been so much dissatisfaction with both parties.
Who is worth backing?
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How could republican and conservative voters NOT be inspired by the likes of John “no I won’t impeach Obama or defund Obama’s unconstitutional law breaking or punish him in any way” Boehner???
Or Juan McCain? Or Eric Cantor?
Aside from a few good attack dogs the Republicans are not much more than liberal-lite.
Did I miss something, or is there a total lack of evidence or cited polls backing anything this author is writing? For heavens sakes, he is citing the Mark Foley Scandal of 8 years ago.
I remember well how shocked and dismayed the national press was on election nights in 1994 and 2010 when they couldn’t believe the whipping the democrats were taking.
It’s the middle of summer. Nobody is paying attention right now.
The NYT is just about the last place on earth you would find independent analysis.
It is about as nonpartisan and nonideaological as Pravda.
The only way for 2014 to be another so-called wave election would have been for the establishment Republicans to remain sitting in their corners sucking their thumbs, and retiring with their last shred of dignity whenever and wherever they were being opposed by a more conservative, younger candidate in the primaries.
Nope. Can't have that. These compromised, corrupted, communist GOP-establishment pukes have to wage war against conservatives, just as their communist Democrat overlords commanded. These creatures are not Republicans. They do not adhere to the Republican Party platform. They do not represent Republican voters. If they did, there would be no calls for Democrats to cross the lines using their fraud machines, to support the more liberal Republican in the primaries. And there would be no "close" races in then general election in most states and congressional districts.
Communist propaganda from the filthy degenerates at the NYT.
The Right needs to find a way to make them cease to exist
Thanks. That's not much of a sample.
You actually might get better independent analysis from Pravda (or Al Jazeera America) than from the NY Slimes, for that matter.
The “momentum” is underground now, where it has been shoved.
Talk about a “silent majority”, well, we’re it.
For the time being. :)