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Goodbye to the Republican Wave? [Promised Republican momentum has yet to materialize]
New York Times ^ | 07/21/2014 | Nate Cohn

Posted on 07/21/2014 9:45:30 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Republicans entered this election cycle with high hopes. President Obama’s approval ratings had sunk into the low 40s, and the rollout of the Affordable Care Act had been an unmitigated disaster. In an off-year election, Democrats weren’t expected to fully mobilize the young and diverse coalition that has given them an advantage in presidential elections. Off-years are also when a president’s party typically suffers significant losses.

This year seemed poised to turn into another so-called wave election, like in 2006 or 2010, when a rising tide of dissatisfaction with the incumbent party swept the opposition into power. Given a favorable midterm map, with so many Democratic Senate seats in play, some analysts suggested that Republicans could win a dozen of them, perhaps even picking up seats in states like Virginia, New Hampshire and Oregon.

The anti-Democratic wave might still arrive. But with three and a half months to go until November’s elections, the promised Republican momentum has yet to materialize.

The race for the Senate, at least right now, is stable. There aren’t many polls asking whether voters would prefer Democrats or Republicans to control Congress, but the Democrats appear to maintain a slight edge among registered voters. Democratic incumbents in red Republican states, who would be all but doomed in a Republican wave, appear doggedly competitive in places where Mitt Romney won by as much as 24 points in 2012.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2014; elections; gop; republicans
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1 posted on 07/21/2014 9:45:30 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Republicans always snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.


2 posted on 07/21/2014 9:46:14 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: SeekAndFind

The NY Times’ wishful thinking?


3 posted on 07/21/2014 9:46:17 AM PDT by MNGal
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To: SeekAndFind

Uh, the party establishment hasn’t exactly enthused their base.

Of course, Obama hasn’t enthused HIS base either.


4 posted on 07/21/2014 9:47:11 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SeekAndFind

The Republican Party is doing their best to squash any wave.


5 posted on 07/21/2014 9:47:15 AM PDT by Ingtar (The NSA - "We're the only part of government who actually listens to the people.")
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To: MNGal

Yeah...consider the source....


6 posted on 07/21/2014 9:47:19 AM PDT by Boonie
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To: SeekAndFind

We are still broiling over Missouri...


7 posted on 07/21/2014 9:47:20 AM PDT by Mr. K (Palin/Cruz 2016)
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To: SeekAndFind

With their disgusting tactics in Mississippi, I’m not surprised. Who in their right mind would be saying, “I’m so excited to vote republican!”


8 posted on 07/21/2014 9:47:46 AM PDT by Viennacon (Rebuke the Repuke!)
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To: SeekAndFind

So....if you were a young under employed person in Mississippi, would you be excited about the aging fossil Thad Cochran, or the energetic and young Chris McDaniel?

Not surprising that the stupid party might snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

But then again, this is after all the Slimes reporting it...


9 posted on 07/21/2014 9:48:13 AM PDT by Regulator
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To: SeekAndFind

No matter what, the closet totalitarians among us will always pull the lever for a fellow totalitarian.

IMHO


10 posted on 07/21/2014 9:48:31 AM PDT by ripley
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To: SeekAndFind

Maybe because the GOPE is doing its best to piss off the conservative base??


11 posted on 07/21/2014 9:48:41 AM PDT by GeronL (Vote for Conservatives not for Republicans)
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To: dfwgator

Attacking the TEA party and conservatives isn’t such a good campaign strategy after all??


12 posted on 07/21/2014 9:49:16 AM PDT by GeronL (Vote for Conservatives not for Republicans)
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To: SeekAndFind

We’ll see. My guess is that even low info voters have had it with this crappy economy. Forget everything else, it’s the economy stupid.


13 posted on 07/21/2014 9:49:33 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: dfwgator
Republicans always snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

I think that this year it's driven by fed-up conservatives (such as myself) who are refusing to vote for RINO/GOP-e candidates under any circumstances, and who are willing to see the collapse of the Republican party because we don't see it as a credible alternative to the extreme Democrat leftist agenda.

14 posted on 07/21/2014 9:49:34 AM PDT by Maceman
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To: SeekAndFind

Hey Nate bend over Obama has something for you.


15 posted on 07/21/2014 9:50:52 AM PDT by boomop1 (term limits will only save this country.)
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To: SeekAndFind

oh please


16 posted on 07/21/2014 9:51:05 AM PDT by Williams
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To: SeekAndFind

National polls for local elections don’t matter, who they want to run things nationally doesn’t really change who they’ll vote for as their congressman or senator. It’s second midterm, GOP should make gains, unless they seriously misplay the hand like in 98.


17 posted on 07/21/2014 9:51:15 AM PDT by discostu (Villains always blink their eyes.)
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To: MNGal

I detect ZERO enthusiasm for the Republicans out there. Zero. Absolutely none.

That being said, the wave may still turn out with the sole purpose of punishing the Democrats.


18 posted on 07/21/2014 9:52:21 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: dfwgator

Lol. Good wordplay there...: )


19 posted on 07/21/2014 9:54:09 AM PDT by jsanders2001
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To: SeekAndFind

I’ve said for a while that the intentional purging of the Republican base by the Establishment will lead to a sweep by the Rats in November. It’s possible that the huge defeat is intentional, or at least as welcome by the party bosses. I’m guessing they want a thorough re-branding of the GOP. They’re embarrassed by the old ladies in wheelchairs holding American flags and young bearded men in cammo holding Gadsden Flags. They want a party the LIVs are comfortable with. You know, the people who don’t know our history, are drugged up with Aspartame and “Where’s My Pants”, and have been brainwashed by the Public Schools and MSM?

Anyway, the GOP will be big losers in November and they, and people on FR, will blame us.


20 posted on 07/21/2014 9:56:25 AM PDT by demshateGod (The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God.)
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To: MNGal
According to today's Politico.com poll, you are on to something

The race for the Senate, at least right now, is stable. There aren’t many polls asking whether voters would prefer Democrats or Republicans to control Congress, but the Democrats appear to maintain a slight edge among registered voters.

Partnering with SocialSphere, Inc., of Cambridge, Massachusetts – which designed and directed the survey – POLITICO surveyed 834 likely voters in the states and districts with the most competitive Senate and House races, as ranked by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Conducted from July 3-13.

If the election for the [U.S. House of Representatives/U.S. Senate] were held today, would you vote for the [Democratic candidate] or the [Republican candidate] in [your district/your state]?

Republican candidate 39% Democratic candidate 37% Don't know 23%

21 posted on 07/21/2014 9:56:41 AM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Real Clear Politics shows, currently, GOP pickup of 6 senate seats. Election tomorrow: GOP controls Senate 51-49. Make what you want of that.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/2014_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html


22 posted on 07/21/2014 9:56:47 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist (Government is best which governs least.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.


23 posted on 07/21/2014 9:56:51 AM PDT by Huskrrrr
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To: SoFloFreeper

Their hatred for us, and the SEIU will bring them to the polls.


24 posted on 07/21/2014 9:57:22 AM PDT by demshateGod (The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God.)
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To: dfwgator

>> Republicans always snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

The GOP establishment to be precise.


25 posted on 07/21/2014 9:57:23 AM PDT by Gene Eric (Don't be a statist!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Wishful thinking on the part of NYT.

Generally speaking the Party out of power makes significant gains in midterm elections. This is even more pronounced in the 6th year of an incumbent administration.

Moreover, the electorate in midterm elections is much different than is the case in presidential elections. The voters in midterm election tend to be older, whiter, and more dedicated, therefore more Republican, than is the case in presidential elections.

Furthermore, the illegal immigration issue is shaping up to be the number one issue this Fall, another factor which will drive up conservative and GOP numbers to the polls.


26 posted on 07/21/2014 9:57:27 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: MNGal
The NY Times’ wishful thinking?

Maybe. But also living up to their motto:

All The News That Fits We Print


27 posted on 07/21/2014 9:59:01 AM PDT by caveat emptor (!)
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To: SeekAndFind

The GOP’s top down war against the republican base is demoralizing it, and helping to invigorate the democrats, and feeding talking points and image reinforcement into the media’s national narrative against the republicans.


28 posted on 07/21/2014 9:59:32 AM PDT by ansel12 (LEGAL immigrants, 30 million 1980-2012, continues to remake the nation's electorate for democrats)
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To: CaptainK

“According to today’s Politico.com poll, you are on to something...”

Can we rely on what Politico says? I am under the impression that they are approaching the propaganda level of the NY Times.


29 posted on 07/21/2014 10:00:35 AM PDT by MNGal
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To: MNGal; Boonie
The NY Times’ wishful thinking?

Not in this case. I hate to agree with anything that is in the NY Times, other than the date, but I fail to see a groundswell of Republican support.

30 posted on 07/21/2014 10:01:56 AM PDT by Labyrinthos
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To: SeekAndFind

NYT reporter just whistling past the graveyard. Trouble is his whistling he might just wake up a lot Dem voters who reside there, yet still show up at the polls every year.


31 posted on 07/21/2014 10:02:57 AM PDT by Reo (the 4th Estate is a 5th Column)
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To: SeekAndFind

What? A party that stomps its own base into the dirt, even to the point of slandering them as KKK racists, quashes all debate, and betrays its own supposed platform every single day, is failing to build enthusiasm for electing its candidates?

Who’d a thunk it...


32 posted on 07/21/2014 10:06:07 AM PDT by EternalVigilance
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To: SeekAndFind
Bye bye wave? If so, the explanation does not require a degree in Rocket Science. Just ask yourself who is leading the charge. We are going to have to do much better than this if we hope to save this country from the Marxist agenda of the the Democrat Party.


33 posted on 07/21/2014 10:06:50 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (Remember Mississippi)
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To: Labyrinthos

” I fail to see a groundswell of Republican support.”

I don’t detect a groundswell of Democrat support, either. As another poster pointed out, it may boil down not to which party the voters like the most, but which party the voters despise the most.


34 posted on 07/21/2014 10:09:27 AM PDT by MNGal
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To: SeekAndFind

Conservatives are going to sit home in Mississippi. And I don’t blame them one damned bit. Mitch McConnell will lose to Grimes in Kentucky, and Pryor will hold on in Arkansas. Meanwhile, the Republicans are having their convention in Cleveland. The GOP has to die before anything changes.


35 posted on 07/21/2014 10:09:28 AM PDT by DesScorp
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To: Reo

“Nate Cohen?””” a Nate Silver wannabe..???


36 posted on 07/21/2014 10:09:38 AM PDT by ken5050 ("One useless man is a shame, two are a law firm, three or more are a Congress".. John Adams)
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To: MNGal

Which is why if there has ever been a time for a new political movement to emerge, the time is now....There has never been so much dissatisfaction with both parties.


37 posted on 07/21/2014 10:10:40 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: SeekAndFind

Who is worth backing?


38 posted on 07/21/2014 10:11:06 AM PDT by informavoracious (Open your eyes, people!)
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To: All
"Goodbye to the Republican Wave?
[Promised Republican momentum has yet to materialize]"


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39 posted on 07/21/2014 10:12:27 AM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: SeekAndFind

How could republican and conservative voters NOT be inspired by the likes of John “no I won’t impeach Obama or defund Obama’s unconstitutional law breaking or punish him in any way” Boehner???

Or Juan McCain? Or Eric Cantor?

Aside from a few good attack dogs the Republicans are not much more than liberal-lite.


40 posted on 07/21/2014 10:12:36 AM PDT by Organic Panic
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To: MNGal
The NY Times has not endorsed a Republican for President since Eisenhower in 1956. They are lock step, dues paying, members of the DNC.

Did I miss something, or is there a total lack of evidence or cited polls backing anything this author is writing? For heavens sakes, he is citing the Mark Foley Scandal of 8 years ago.

41 posted on 07/21/2014 10:14:27 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: SeekAndFind

I remember well how shocked and dismayed the national press was on election nights in 1994 and 2010 when they couldn’t believe the whipping the democrats were taking.


42 posted on 07/21/2014 10:15:26 AM PDT by MNnice
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To: SeekAndFind

It’s the middle of summer. Nobody is paying attention right now.


43 posted on 07/21/2014 10:17:22 AM PDT by Jeff Chandler (Conservatism is the political disposition of grown-ups.)
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To: KC_Conspirator

Precisely.

The NYT is just about the last place on earth you would find independent analysis.

It is about as nonpartisan and nonideaological as Pravda.


44 posted on 07/21/2014 10:18:20 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: SeekAndFind
The so-called wave election of 2010 was created and executed by non-establishment Republican and independent voters, as was the so-called wave election of 1994.

The only way for 2014 to be another so-called wave election would have been for the establishment Republicans to remain sitting in their corners sucking their thumbs, and retiring with their last shred of dignity whenever and wherever they were being opposed by a more conservative, younger candidate in the primaries.

Nope. Can't have that. These compromised, corrupted, communist GOP-establishment pukes have to wage war against conservatives, just as their communist Democrat overlords commanded. These creatures are not Republicans. They do not adhere to the Republican Party platform. They do not represent Republican voters. If they did, there would be no calls for Democrats to cross the lines using their fraud machines, to support the more liberal Republican in the primaries. And there would be no "close" races in then general election in most states and congressional districts.

45 posted on 07/21/2014 10:18:54 AM PDT by meadsjn
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To: SeekAndFind
Republicans make me sick, but this guy is fooling himself. Obama is destroying the Democrats and their only lifeline - amnesty - won't happen this year. The fix is in and Uniparty will give us a WWF election which is already decided. The Republicans will win the Senate and continue the march toward amnesty.
46 posted on 07/21/2014 10:19:12 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Communist propaganda from the filthy degenerates at the NYT.

The Right needs to find a way to make them cease to exist


47 posted on 07/21/2014 10:19:56 AM PDT by Rome2000
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To: CaptainK
POLITICO surveyed 834 likely voters in the states and districts with the most competitive Senate and House races

Thanks. That's not much of a sample.

48 posted on 07/21/2014 10:21:11 AM PDT by meadsjn
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

You actually might get better independent analysis from Pravda (or Al Jazeera America) than from the NY Slimes, for that matter.


49 posted on 07/21/2014 10:23:40 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: SeekAndFind

The “momentum” is underground now, where it has been shoved.

Talk about a “silent majority”, well, we’re it.

For the time being. :)


50 posted on 07/21/2014 10:24:07 AM PDT by RitaOK ( VIVA CHRISTO REY / Public education is the farm team for more Marxists coming.)
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