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Conservatives get a big 2014 boost from ‘fatal blow’ to Obamacare
Hot Air ^ | July 22, 2014 | Noah Rothman

Posted on 07/22/2014 8:06:32 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

At first blush, a federal appeals court’s decision on Tuesday that dealt what many considered to be a near” fatal blow” to the Affordable Care Act could also appear to be a blow to Republicans’ hopes for retaking the Senate in November.

Obamacare supporters are enraged. The decision in Halbig v. Burwell, which invalidated the federal government’s ability to provide subsidies for those Americans who purchased insurance through a federal health insurance exchange, could mean a major increase in premium rates for more than half of the 8 million who enrolled in ACA plans.

The appeals court ruled that, as written, only those who purchased insurance through state-level exchanges can access federal financial support. “That would invalidate an Internal Revenue Service regulation that tried to sort out confusing wording in the law by concluding that Congress intended for consumers in all 50 states to have subsidized coverage,” the Associated Press reported. 36 states declined to establish their own exchanges, preferring instead to use the federal exchange.

The law’s design was no accident. The ACA was constructed with the aim of encouraging states to establish their own exchanges. Even Vox.com accurately describes the incentive structure in place: “If a state set up its own exchange, its citizens would receive subsidies. If the state didn’t, its citizens wouldn’t.”

It stands to reason that ACA supporters would enthusiastically oppose this decision and express that enthusiasm at the ballot box in November. However, at second glance, it seems more likely that Republican voters will be motivated by this development.

Why? Consider that Democrats are likely to breathe a sigh of relief when the “nuclear option,” advanced by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and passed along party lines, saves Obamacare’s bacon.

Jeffrey Toobin ✔ @JeffreyToobin

7 to 4 Dem majority on DC Circuit (due to Reid's nuke
option) means likely en banc overturning of
#Obamacare ruling. http://ow.ly/zrTg8

9:48 AM - 22 Jul 2014

146 Retweets 36 favorites

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur

Reid's nuclear option, which put 3 new Obama-appt judges
on the DC Circuit, could save Obamacare.

9:37 AM - 22 Jul 2014

72 Retweets 18 favorites

The Obama administration confirmed on Tuesday that they plan to pursue this remedy. The White House added that, in spite of this court ruling, federal subsidies will continue to be provided to those who enrolled through federal exchanges. Meanwhile, ruling on a similar case on Tuesday, the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals came to the opposite conclusion as the D.C. appeals court citing “Congress’s clear intent.”

For Democrats, nothing has changed. For Republicans, however, the reviled health care reform law is back on the ballot.

It is hard to think of a more galvanizing development for conservatives than a panel of judges rescuing Obamacare from its own fatal flaws only as a result of Senate Democrats’ maneuver aimed at limiting minority Republicans’ rights.

That is, on a macro level, where Republicans will benefit from this ruling. But there are also state-specific factors resulting from this development which can help advance individual Republican candidates’ electoral prospects.

For example, take the state of Oregon.

The federal government awarded Oregon $10 million to set up its own exchange, but that problematic web portal was a chronic disaster. All the Beaver State had to show for their investments were a series of laughably bad, folk art themed enrollment advertisements which were mocked even by ACA supporters.

Cover Oregon and the Oregon Health Authority spent a total of $248 million to create a website that never worked. In the end, the state scrapped the exchange and elected to use the federal government’s exchange portal instead. Now, those consumers who purchased insurance through that exchange face the terrifying prospect of their formerly cheap insurance growing prohibitively expensive.

Enter Republican Senate candidate Monica Wehby. She faces an uphill battle in her bid to unseat Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) in the fall. The GOP standard-bearer, a pediatric neurosurgeon, raised just half of what her opponent raked in during 2014’s second quarter. The state’s Democratic-leaning electorate, predisposed already to support the incumbent, would require a major incentive to support Merkley’s challenger which previously did not exist.

That incentive may have just arrived in the form of Halbig. The Republican firm Harper Polling found in April that a majority of Oregonians disapprove of the ACA and Halbig is only likely to put Merkley in the uncomfortable position of defending an unpopular law. A law which now provides many of his state’s health care consumers with insurance they know they will not be able to afford.

That is a story that will be repeated in battleground states all over the country. When pollsters begin to ask voters just how likely they are to vote in the coming midterms after Labor Day, expect nearly every conservative-leaning voter to reply with an emphatic, “Very.”


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Extended News; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2014issues; 2014midterms; aca; halbig; judiciary; obama; obamacare

1 posted on 07/22/2014 8:06:33 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Until this goes all the way to the SCOTUS, nothing is settled.


2 posted on 07/22/2014 8:12:12 PM PDT by doc1019
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The wording is not confusing at all; it is very clear. And I didn’t sleep at a Holiday Inn last night.


3 posted on 07/22/2014 8:13:26 PM PDT by kevslisababy
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Obamacare is the democrat Parties EDSEL!!!

America may have bought an Edsel ONCE...but not likely again...after the latest recall




4 posted on 07/22/2014 8:26:38 PM PDT by MeshugeMikey ( "Never, never, never give up". Winston Churchill ...)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Way, way too early to bring out the party hats. Each and every prior example of “on the fly” law writing/adjusting has been forcibly implanted in the rear view mirror and disintegrated. This one is the biggest yet; if it falls, ACA is immediately dead. Hence the defenses will be brought out to the max.

We will now be called “literalists”....which will supplant “racist”. “Literalists want to take healthcare away from poor people”.


5 posted on 07/22/2014 8:30:50 PM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (At no time was the Obama administration aware of what the Obama administration was doing)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; All

It ain’t done yet. Roberts can still resurrect his beloved beast


6 posted on 07/22/2014 8:33:27 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
"Obamacare supporters are enraged."

Yeah. Both of them.

7 posted on 07/22/2014 8:34:50 PM PDT by mlo
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Get Lois Lerner on this...


8 posted on 07/22/2014 8:44:53 PM PDT by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously-you won't live through it anyway-Enjoy Yourself ala Louis Prima)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
...appear to be a blow to RepublicansÂ’ hopes for retaking the Senate in November. Obamacare supporters are enraged....yeah, well let about fifteen million voters sit around for the next few months stewing about whether they'll be getting subsidies or indeed even be able to afford medical insurance next year - see what that does for Obamacare supporters......
9 posted on 07/22/2014 8:55:48 PM PDT by Intolerant in NJ
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

No. They don’t. No. It isn’t.


10 posted on 07/22/2014 9:00:55 PM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: doc1019

E X A C T L Y.


11 posted on 07/22/2014 9:01:11 PM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: Attention Surplus Disorder

Let’s not forget the 4th Cir ruled on this VERY issue and ruled opposite of the DC Cir. Not to mention the full panel will overturn this.

To be able to focus on the goal means you must focus on the facts ... like ‘em or not.


12 posted on 07/22/2014 9:02:42 PM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I seriously doubt this will be even close to resolution before the 2014 elections. Thus claims of this being a blow to Republican is liberal twaddle.


13 posted on 07/22/2014 9:35:15 PM PDT by upchuck (It's a shame nobama truly doesn't care about any of this. Our country, our future, he doesn't care.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If (when) DC overturns this en back it SHOULD spark a clear and resounding battle cry to fire Harry Reid. Conservatives everywhere will need to get the message...

Harry, the president, and their nuclear option gave us this mess.
Firing Nancy was step one.
Time for round two.


14 posted on 07/22/2014 9:58:59 PM PDT by BlueNgold (Have we crossed the line from Govt. in righteous fear of the People - to a People in fear of Govt??)
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To: BlueNgold

En banc

Danged auto correct.
Missed it on preview.


15 posted on 07/22/2014 10:00:42 PM PDT by BlueNgold (Have we crossed the line from Govt. in righteous fear of the People - to a People in fear of Govt??)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Obamacare supporters are enraged.

Both of them.

16 posted on 07/22/2014 10:02:49 PM PDT by Dr.Deth
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To: MeshugeMikey; Grampa Dave; Carry_Okie; tubebender; Amerigomag; dixiechick2000; marsh2; ...
"Obamacare is the democrat Parties EDSEL!!!"

THAT IS A KEEPER!!!

17 posted on 07/22/2014 11:12:55 PM PDT by SierraWasp (Obama is mad! He's getting madder with each crisis and now he's a real MADMAN with no temper left!!!)
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To: SierraWasp; MeshugeMikey

“Obamacare is the democrat Parties EDSEL!!!”

More like the Corvair, unsafe at any speed. Out here, Edsels have become collector items and still run. I don’t ever remember Edsels being dangerous to drive or ride in like the Corvair.


18 posted on 07/23/2014 5:19:05 AM PDT by Grampa Dave ( Obama's Storm of Illegal immigrants, aka, new democRat voters and his 2016 FDR 3rd term attempt!)
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To: Grampa Dave
Yes I can see that!




19 posted on 07/23/2014 6:32:24 AM PDT by MeshugeMikey ( "Never, never, never give up". Winston Churchill ...)
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To: SierraWasp

maybe the ObamaCar......

please see..same...above


20 posted on 07/23/2014 6:33:15 AM PDT by MeshugeMikey ( "Never, never, never give up". Winston Churchill ...)
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To: MeshugeMikey
Thank you!


21 posted on 07/23/2014 7:13:13 AM PDT by Grampa Dave ( Obama's Storm of Illegal immigrants, aka, new democRat voters and his 2016 FDR 3rd term attempt!)
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To: doc1019

True, but the article was more about the political aspect than the legal one.

The question is, when can we expect an en banc ruling? The subsidies aren’t being halted, so there’s no rush from the Dem-dominated DC Circuits perspective.

I’m guessing we don’t see any sort of en banc ruling before the election. Until that ruling hapoens, no one will really care about this particular aspect of Obamacare and it will have faded as an election issue.


22 posted on 07/23/2014 7:36:19 AM PDT by tanknetter
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To: Grampa Dave
Youre most welcome


23 posted on 07/23/2014 7:37:32 AM PDT by MeshugeMikey ( "Never, never, never give up". Winston Churchill ...)
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To: Grampa Dave; MeshugeMikey

Great Scott!!! You guys got too much furtile brane matter!!! (wide grin)


24 posted on 07/23/2014 10:27:02 AM PDT by SierraWasp (Obama is mad! He's getting madder with each crisis and now he's a real MADMAN with no temper left!!!)
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To: SierraWasp

Thank Ya Thank Ya


25 posted on 07/23/2014 7:26:03 PM PDT by MeshugeMikey ( "Never, never, never give up". Winston Churchill ...)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

So why can’t the Dems just campaign on a platform of amending the law to make clear that everyone gets the subsidies?

The author says people in Oregon will be upset if they might not get their subsidies. But if Obamacare is repealed they certainly won’t get their subsidies, so I don’t see how this helps Republicans politically.


26 posted on 07/23/2014 11:43:05 PM PDT by Eagle Forgotten
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