I agree, it is important to weigh the validity of the information. I hope the Sunni tribes who have saddled up with these people do turn on them. A well connected Sunni friend told me a couple weeks back that was the eventual plan. Use the ISIS to ride the wave, then turn on them and kill them. The ISIS mentality is sure not the typical mentality or belief I encountered in 2005-2006, 2010-2011.
As far as 7000 troops deploying.. Not possible to hide that from a lot of news sources. However, I will caveat that with a US friend in Amman, who told me he was preparing a response for a RFQ for the Army on a Life support contract in Iraq. Does not mean the Mil will actually do anything, just means ducks are being aligned. We have prepositioned Armor in some locations in the Kurdish region since the withdrawal. Not a very good secret in the Kurdish region by the way, but the Kurds, despite Obama and company still generally like us. Personally, I think the Iraq politicians need to sort out their differences. If Maliki does not step away, the Sunni tribes are not going to back down. If they nominate and select a relative non-secular (shia by constitution) prime minister which is workable to equality, then the Sunni tribes will one by one come back to the government. The government needs to do this before we even contemplate involvement of ANY LIMITED sort. At the moment Iraq is more of a 3 ring circus than ever..
I agree with your analysis. I imagine that the Baathists, like the tribal leaders, planned on using the jihadis and then discarding them. So I have been looking for signs of Sunni infighting.
As you point out, ISIS is different from Zarqawi’s folks with their mass executions and nation-state support, so casting them aside may not go according to plan.
If Maliki was to step aside, I doubt that Iran would tolerate any replacement not firmly in their camp (therefor unlikely to be acceptable to the Sunnis), so I am not bullish on political reconciliation, until some factions are forced to capitulate.
My most likely scenario is for continued bloodshed, until someone is significantly defeated.
My understanding is that the Kurds want to protect the Christians and will allow them refuge in the areas they control. Is this correct?