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Miscalculation. Failure. Escalation - Why Putin Shot Down MH-17
forbes.com ^ | July 26, 2014 | Greg Satell

Posted on 07/26/2014 2:15:43 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe

Why would the leader of a powerful country in reasonably good standing want to risk everything by putting himself in the same league with Muammar Gaddafi? ...Since the crisis began, he has been taking on ever greater risk—not to mention serious damage to the Russian economy—with negative return. ....

So it appears that Putin is not only a poor chess player, he is an exceeding bad poker player, constantly raising the stakes while facing a decreasing expected return. If he ever could return Ukraine to the fold—an exceedingly unlikely prospect—he would accomplish no more than a return to the status quo ante. ....

The pattern of events shows a dangerous pattern. At almost every stage, Putin miscalculates and then raises the ante. He clearly did not expect the protests that broke out against the scrapping of the EU Association agreement, nor did he foresee that the crackdown would bring even more people to the streets.

Miscalculation. Failure. Escalation. The pattern continued with the separatist movement. While it gained some traction in Donetsk and Luhansk, it went nowhere in most of the industrial East. Russian actions were quickly put down in Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Odessa, where most of Ukraine’s high level industry—not to mention a good bit of Russia’s military industry—is located.

After the election of Petro Poroshenko to Ukraine’s Presidency came more setbacks. The rebel strongholds of Slaviansk and Kramatorsk were retaken by Ukrainian anti-terrorist troops and they began moving toward Donetsk and Luhansk. So Putin escalated again, sending heavy artillery and more sophisticated weapons, including the one that shot down MH-17.

Miscalculation. Failure. Escalation. The downing of MH-17 is a logical consequence of the pattern.

(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Russia
KEYWORDS: malaysia; russia; ukraine
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1 posted on 07/26/2014 2:15:43 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
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To: Tailgunner Joe

I read one theory that Bad Vlad was playing with Hillary’s “Reset” button when the missile accidentally launched.


2 posted on 07/26/2014 2:23:45 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (America is not a refugee camp! It is my home!!!)
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To: Tailgunner Joe

Only one small problem, Putin has yet to be proved guilty.

Personally I think he was involved even if only as the knowing supplier but on the face of it the Ukraine gov’t has more to gain from such an act. As the lawyers say “Cui bono?”


3 posted on 07/26/2014 2:29:12 PM PDT by 1066AD
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To: Tailgunner Joe

Any kind of mental imbalance is exacerbated by vast, virtually unchecked power. Obama was actually less mentally screwed up when he was first elected than he is now. Six or so years of being treated like a king has mushroomed Obama’s problems out of all proportion. Notice of late the who-gives-a-hoot level of golfing, partying, vacationing & fund raising. He acts like whether the public approves or disapproves is irrelevant. The king does what he wants to do, period. Also notice the increasingly weird, inappropriate giggling. It’s gotten 100x worse since he first entered the WH.

Putin is also not one-hundred percent sound mentally. He has virtually unlimited power, and he spends an outsized amount of time promoted the Cult of Putin. So many ‘manly’ photos of him riding a bear—bare chested—hunting, posing in KGB shades, ostentatiously showing off his pecs in a wife-beater shirt, etc. He has, if possible, an even more serious crush on himself than Obama.

When one’s mental instability is given unfettered rein, the judgment suffers. I.e.: people held to normal standards must evaluate their decisions & their environment from a real-world perspective. People w virtually unlimited power & a paid cadre of yes-men make decisions in a vacuum. No matter what they decide their inner circle praises them as demi-gods; the consequences of not doing so make this a given.

So Putin made a disastrous decision & his yes-squad assured him of its brilliance. His ego couldn’t see it any other way. Now he’s getting a rare taste of the real world. He won’t handle it well at all.


4 posted on 07/26/2014 2:30:49 PM PDT by Fantasywriter (Any attempt to do forensic work using Internet artifacts is fraught with pitfalls. JoeProbono)
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To: 1066AD
It was a darn accident. If someone backs into your car at the grocery store parking lot, you don't need to ask cui bono? Jeepers.
5 posted on 07/26/2014 2:32:13 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: Tailgunner Joe
it appears that Putin is not only a poor chess player, he is an exceeding bad poker player

...other than the little fact that he's been running rings around 0baMao.

6 posted on 07/26/2014 2:32:24 PM PDT by ErnBatavia (It ain't a "hashtag"....it's a damn pound sign, number sign, or octothorpe. ###)
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To: Tailgunner Joe
Putin is both an excellent chess player and a superlative poker player. His actions have cost him very little financially, his popularity at home is at stellar highs, and his domestic power over all Russian levers of power is ever-increasing. Putin knows that Europe is a castrated fat cat that will never stand up to him. He knows that Obama is (take your pick): (1) completely feckless and ineffectual in so far over his head it's ludicrous; (2) a traitor who hates America and American power and influence around the world; (3) subject to his KGB's "kompromat" (truth about his and his family's Communist ties, sexual stuff about his bathhouse escapades no doubt replete with color glossy photos) and is quiescent as only the blackmailed could be; (4) doing as Putin orders because Putin's droppings hundreds of millions of dollars into Barry's Swiss bank account; and (5) all of the above (most likely scenario, IMHO).

Putin is winning. He'll take all of Eastern and Southern Ukraine for the same reason a dog licks its testicles - because he can. As soon as that's over, he'll take (my guess) the Georgian Black Sea province of Adjaria (ethnically different from other Georgians, although related) and maybe more of Georgia, and have his hand on the switch of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. Europe will not dare to say a peep after that.

Then he'll have a free hand to annex the Russian-speaking parts of the former Soviet Empire, starting (my guess) with Northern Kazakhstan, after that the Baltics.

The only country that could rise to stop him is the United States. But we won't do that for the reasons described above.

So, Putin wins his old Soviet Empire back at the ridiculously low cost of a few half-hearted sanctions.

7 posted on 07/26/2014 2:32:34 PM PDT by Gluteus Maximus
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To: Fantasywriter

10 percent of what’s published in “Forbes” is accurate.


8 posted on 07/26/2014 2:32:55 PM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks (Rip it out by the roots.)
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To: Tailgunner Joe

was there any evidence that Putin personally made a deliberate decision to down this airplane?
if so, I missed it... and this article would then be pure BS


9 posted on 07/26/2014 2:34:20 PM PDT by faithhopecharity ((Brilliant, Profound Tag Line Goes Here, just as soon as I can think of one..))
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To: Tailgunner Joe

My theory:
Ukrainian Russian sympathizers
(possibly into the vodka)
fired at a target they believed to be Ukrainian military.
A tragic error.


10 posted on 07/26/2014 2:35:43 PM PDT by Repeal The 17th (We have met the enemy and he is us.)
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To: 1rudeboy

I tend to agree it was a result of human error but you need more than that to start sanctioning a country and it never hurts to look at motive.


11 posted on 07/26/2014 2:36:02 PM PDT by 1066AD
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To: Tailgunner Joe

Breaking news: International investigators have pinpointed the exact location on the ground from which the missile was launched. They have provided photographs of the remains of a Book Depository, craftily concealed by the Separatists, not far from a Grassy Knoll, which could have served as the site of a back-up launcher, in case the first one failed.

As further proof, they cited the discovery at the site of numerous beer bottles.


12 posted on 07/26/2014 2:40:35 PM PDT by BusterBear
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To: Gluteus Maximus

NATO isn’t a single country.


13 posted on 07/26/2014 2:41:15 PM PDT by ansel12 (LEGAL immigrants, 30 million 1980-2012, continues to remake the nation's electorate for democrats)
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To: Tailgunner Joe

A bigger question is why was Malaysia Airlines flying their airline in that airspace?


14 posted on 07/26/2014 2:41:27 PM PDT by jonrick46 (The opium of Communists: other people's money.)
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To: 1066AD

‘Only one small problem, Putin has yet to be proved guilty.’

If he was not involved in the shoot down itself, he certainly is the one that made it possible. When you give, or even loan, that kind & level of missile equipment to a bunch of drunken, undisciplined ‘rebels’ you are responsible for the uses they put it to.


15 posted on 07/26/2014 2:42:01 PM PDT by Fantasywriter (Any attempt to do forensic work using Internet artifacts is fraught with pitfalls. JoeProbono)
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To: Gluteus Maximus

I’ll believe it when I see it. Too many people here are exhibiting Putin Derangement Syndrome, where they can’t decide if he’s an evil genius or an addled moron. We’ve seen that movie before.


16 posted on 07/26/2014 2:42:58 PM PDT by RaveOn ("No amount of logic can shatter a faith consciously based on a lie." Lamar Keene, "True Believers")
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To: 1rudeboy

It was shot down from 33,000 feet, by weaponry that can do that, and it was done on purpose as they admitted in their on line bragging.


17 posted on 07/26/2014 2:43:19 PM PDT by ansel12 (LEGAL immigrants, 30 million 1980-2012, continues to remake the nation's electorate for democrats)
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To: jonrick46

Hijacked?


18 posted on 07/26/2014 2:45:03 PM PDT by RaveOn ("No amount of logic can shatter a faith consciously based on a lie." Lamar Keene, "True Believers")
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To: Fantasywriter

“So many ‘manly’ photos of him riding a bear....”

You do realize that the “riding a bear” photos were fake — satire on the real “riding a horse in a manly fashion” photos. Putin never claimed to ride bears, just as Sarah Palin never claimed she could see Russia from her house.


19 posted on 07/26/2014 2:45:47 PM PDT by USFRIENDINVICTORIA
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To: jonrick46
A bigger question is why was Malaysia Airlines flying their airline in that airspace?

If you don't know the answer to that question by now, it's fruitless to explain.

20 posted on 07/26/2014 2:47:37 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: RaveOn
Too many people here are exhibiting Putin Derangement Syndrome . . . .

Maybe FR should switch to Cyrillic.

21 posted on 07/26/2014 2:49:07 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: Tailgunner Joe
I see that the small subset of "Putin worshippers" have been driven back under their rocks on this site. Remember how they used to post pictures of a shirtless Putin mounted on a horse like how little teenage girls used to hang posters of David Cassidy and Leif Garrett in their bedrooms back in the 1970s?

I'm so glad I don't have to be subjected to that here anymore.

22 posted on 07/26/2014 2:49:16 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: Gluteus Maximus
Putin is winning. He'll take all of Eastern and Southern Ukraine for the same reason a dog licks its testicles - because he can.

Putin is a loser. His economic policies have been a disaster and now he is screwing up Russia's foreign policy. A competent president would have been able to maintain good relations with the Ukraine.

The guy's a joke and how anyone can admire him is a mystery to me. I suspect some (middle-aged homosexuals) get the hots when he takes off his shirt for them. Maybe they want to lick Putin's testicles, I don't know. Any attraction to Putin seems very strange to me.

They have been showing pre-crash videos of some of the wonderful people who were murdered because of Putin's incompetence. All I can say is that if you think he's some kind of genius, his peculiar genius killed a lot of wonderful, innocent people.

23 posted on 07/26/2014 2:50:38 PM PDT by Tau Food (Never give a sword to a man who can't dance.)
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To: 1rudeboy

“It was a darn accident. If someone backs into your car at the grocery store parking lot, you don’t need to ask cui bono? Jeepers.”

It would be the equivalent to someone handing the keys to a monster dump trunk to a lunatic and telling them to drive to the grocery store parking lot and to run over cars with people inside of them.


24 posted on 07/26/2014 2:52:22 PM PDT by Oliviaforever
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To: Fantasywriter
When you give, or even loan, that kind & level of missile equipment to a bunch of drunken, undisciplined ‘rebels’ you are responsible for the uses they put it to.

This sort of mistake can happen even when you put superior gear in the hands of personnel are not drunken, undisciplined rebels.


The Aegis control room on board the USS Vincennes

25 posted on 07/26/2014 2:52:41 PM PDT by cynwoody
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To: ansel12

If your only “proof” is anonymous social media, then you haven’t got any evidence at all.

What about the Russian radar tapes that show Ukrainian fighter jets approaching MH17? What’s that all about?


26 posted on 07/26/2014 2:54:05 PM PDT by RaveOn ("No amount of logic can shatter a faith consciously based on a lie." Lamar Keene, "True Believers")
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To: Gluteus Maximus
Baltics or not he's probably already digesting the governments of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan by moving the Christian minorities in those countries into powerful positions in the government while everyone watches Ukraine and Georgia.

The "Stans" will need help against ISIS types sooner or later and where will they turn? To King Barry?

Just my humble speculation.

27 posted on 07/26/2014 2:55:30 PM PDT by Rashputin (Jesus Christ doesn't evacuate His troops, He leads them to victory.)
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To: cynwoody
Question being: if you handed the Vincennes over to a bunch of drunks, how much more likely would it be that an accident happens?
28 posted on 07/26/2014 3:02:08 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: RaveOn

The free world has the evidence of the prideful admission by the Russian forces conducting the invasion.

I just hope we can stop you guys from becoming the threat to the world that you were.


29 posted on 07/26/2014 3:09:21 PM PDT by ansel12 (LEGAL immigrants, 30 million 1980-2012, continues to remake the nation's electorate for democrats)
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To: Rashputin; Gluteus Maximus
Russia Has Lost Control of Central Asian Gas - July 14, 2014 - Instead of turning to Siberian sources for energy needs, China has recruited Central Asia to provide the lion's share of its natural gas demands. According to BP's report, China now receives nearly half of its natural gas supply from Central Asia.
30 posted on 07/26/2014 3:10:26 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
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To: cynwoody

Why are you going after America with a lie?

There is no comparison, and it does not justify your reassembling the evil empire.


31 posted on 07/26/2014 3:10:56 PM PDT by ansel12 (LEGAL immigrants, 30 million 1980-2012, continues to remake the nation's electorate for democrats)
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To: ansel12

“I just hope we can stop you guys from becoming the threat to the world that you were.”

I live in New Jersey. We’re not much of a threat to anyone.


32 posted on 07/26/2014 3:11:21 PM PDT by RaveOn ("No amount of logic can shatter a faith consciously based on a lie." Lamar Keene, "True Believers")
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To: RaveOn

Your alliance is with the enemy, that is why we are on two different sides.


33 posted on 07/26/2014 3:16:13 PM PDT by ansel12 (LEGAL immigrants, 30 million 1980-2012, continues to remake the nation's electorate for democrats)
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To: Tailgunner Joe
So why did Putin shoot down MH-17? Most probably, because he didn’t feel that he had any other choice.

Excellent analysis!
34 posted on 07/26/2014 3:16:14 PM PDT by caveat emptor (!)
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To: cynwoody

Ha! Green screens! I can still program them!


35 posted on 07/26/2014 3:18:13 PM PDT by uncommonsense (Liberals see what they believe; Conservatives believe what they see.)
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To: ansel12

Okay, whatever.


36 posted on 07/26/2014 3:24:46 PM PDT by RaveOn ("No amount of logic can shatter a faith consciously based on a lie." Lamar Keene, "True Believers")
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To: Tailgunner Joe
I don't see any new news here just bloviation

Greg Satell Contributor
Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.

He's also a writer for the Kiev (Ukrainian) Post

37 posted on 07/26/2014 3:25:01 PM PDT by McGruff (We can't even secure our border never mind Ukraine's.)
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To: Tailgunner Joe

If this guy is smarter than Putin then he should be able to answer these questions:

1. Why did the MH17 plane leave the international corridor?

2. Was MH17 leaving the route a navigation mistake or was the crew following instructions by Ukrainian air traffic controllers in Dnepropetrovsk?

3. Why was a large group of air defense systems deployed to the militia-held area if the self-defense forces have no planes?

4. Why did Kiev deploy BUK missile systems on the edge of militia-controlled zones directly before the tragedy?

5. On the day of the crash Kiev intensified Kupol-M1 9S18 radar activity, key BUK system components. Why?

6. Where did the launcher – from the video circulated by Western media and showing a Buk system being moved allegedly from Ukraine to Russia – come from? As the video was made on the territory controlled by Kiev, where was the launcher being transported?

7. Why haven’t US officials revealed the evidence supporting claims that the MH17 was shot down by a missile launched by the militia?


38 posted on 07/26/2014 3:27:56 PM PDT by McGruff (We can't even secure our border never mind Ukraine's.)
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To: Tailgunner Joe

Is this a Putin miscalculation? Or is he taking advantage of a void in leadership from the West, particularly the US?


39 posted on 07/26/2014 3:29:27 PM PDT by tips up (Living is easy with eyes closed, misunderstanding all you see.)
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To: Tau Food
All I can say is that if you think he's some kind of genius, his peculiar genius killed a lot of wonderful, innocent people.

I agree. Putin is a genius. An evil genius.

What you say is correct but it's quite beside the point. Do you imagine that anybody can become the President of Russia without having walked to the Kremlin office over human remains? Dmitry Medvedev had lots of people killed in his fight for huge forestry resources that became ultimately the plinth of his political power. I lived in Russia during his rise to power. The favored method was "suicide" by drawing in a swimming pool with the "suicide's" hands and feet tied. There were several of those "suicides" as I recall. All of them were ruled suicides, in a fine Orwellian display of in-your-face doublethink. Just dare to call it murder in Russia. Make a big stink about it. Any journalist that did wound up dead.

Lots of journalists killed in Putin's Russia.

No, Putin is an evil KGB apparatchik with enormous designs for the world stage.

The West can either stand up to him now, stand up to him later when he's much more powerful, or simply knuckle under. Given our current leadership, there's no hope that anybody will credibly stand up to him now. Given the current trends going on here at home, I have to say I'll probably be too busy dealing with tyranny at home to care much about what happens half a world away. It seems quite likely that Europe will knuckle under. Europe knows it, too, but they're such wussies that they'll never admit it.

40 posted on 07/26/2014 3:33:01 PM PDT by Gluteus Maximus
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To: Tailgunner Joe

That’s why Putin ultimately has to make a play for Central Asia.


41 posted on 07/26/2014 3:33:57 PM PDT by Gluteus Maximus
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To: USFRIENDINVICTORIA

I didn’t realize the bear/Putin photos were fake. The only place I’ve ever seen them is on this site, and they were posted as being real. I.e.: used to compare Putin’s manliness to Obama’s lack thereof. I figured bears have been trained to dance & ride motorcycles, etc. Why would it be impossible to train one to take a saddle? Glad for the clarification, though. It’s helpful.


42 posted on 07/26/2014 3:34:27 PM PDT by Fantasywriter (Any attempt to do forensic work using Internet artifacts is fraught with pitfalls. JoeProbono)
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To: McGruff

8. What was the name and religion of the pilot and co-pilot of MH17?

9. Why were two Ukrainian fighter jets “escorting” it?

10. Was this plane shot down becuase it was hijacked and flying on a new course?

ABT: anything but terrorism!

;-)


43 posted on 07/26/2014 3:56:30 PM PDT by RaveOn ("No amount of logic can shatter a faith consciously based on a lie." Lamar Keene, "True Believers")
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To: McGruff

Answers to questions 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7. A bunch of Russian drunks shot the plane down thinking it was military. Send my answer to your boss at Russia Today.


44 posted on 07/26/2014 3:57:31 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: RaveOn
9. Why were two Ukrainian fighter jets “escorting” it?

did you just make that up?

45 posted on 07/26/2014 3:58:53 PM PDT by GeronL (Vote for Conservatives not for Republicans)
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To: Fantasywriter
When you give, or even loan, that kind & level of missile equipment to a bunch of drunken, undisciplined ‘rebels’ you are responsible for the uses they put it to.

Who says Russia gave it to them? The separatists have been raiding military depots all over the Donbas and even claimed to have seized a Ukrainian BUK just two weeks before MH17 was shot down.

46 posted on 07/26/2014 4:06:12 PM PDT by Drew68
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To: GeronL

Judge for yourself:

http://www.smh.com.au/world/mh17-ukrainian-fighter-jet-near-plane-before-crash-russian-tv-blames-cia-20140722-zvho8.html

According to the Sydney Morning Herald, the radar data on the fighter jet near MH17 is official and comes from the Russian government itself, not RT or Channel One. (I know enough to disregard anything that comes from those sources.)


47 posted on 07/26/2014 4:07:51 PM PDT by RaveOn ("No amount of logic can shatter a faith consciously based on a lie." Lamar Keene, "True Believers")
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To: 1rudeboy
It was a darn accident.

Could be. A decade or so ago, the Norwegians (iirc) were launching a rocket with a scientific payload, having sent out the required international notices about the intended date/time/location.

That particular notice never reached the Russian missile launch monitoring chain of command, and they came very close to responding to the perceived "attack".

48 posted on 07/26/2014 4:08:09 PM PDT by Calvin Locke
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To: RaveOn

RT and Channel One are owned and controlled from the Kremlin.

I am supposed to trust Russia on this?


49 posted on 07/26/2014 4:08:52 PM PDT by GeronL (Vote for Conservatives not for Republicans)
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To: McGruff
The plane diverted its usual flight path to avoid bad weather, Ukraine did not deploy BUK’s in Eastern Ukraine, and the BUK that shot the plane down came from Russia, and the USA has released evidence proving that separatist terrorists shot the plane down.
50 posted on 07/26/2014 4:09:55 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
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