Skip to comments.Miscalculation. Failure. Escalation - Why Putin Shot Down MH-17
Posted on 07/26/2014 2:15:43 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
Why would the leader of a powerful country in reasonably good standing want to risk everything by putting himself in the same league with Muammar Gaddafi? ...Since the crisis began, he has been taking on ever greater risknot to mention serious damage to the Russian economywith negative return. ....
So it appears that Putin is not only a poor chess player, he is an exceeding bad poker player, constantly raising the stakes while facing a decreasing expected return. If he ever could return Ukraine to the foldan exceedingly unlikely prospecthe would accomplish no more than a return to the status quo ante. ....
The pattern of events shows a dangerous pattern. At almost every stage, Putin miscalculates and then raises the ante. He clearly did not expect the protests that broke out against the scrapping of the EU Association agreement, nor did he foresee that the crackdown would bring even more people to the streets.
Miscalculation. Failure. Escalation. The pattern continued with the separatist movement. While it gained some traction in Donetsk and Luhansk, it went nowhere in most of the industrial East. Russian actions were quickly put down in Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Odessa, where most of Ukraines high level industrynot to mention a good bit of Russias military industryis located.
After the election of Petro Poroshenko to Ukraines Presidency came more setbacks. The rebel strongholds of Slaviansk and Kramatorsk were retaken by Ukrainian anti-terrorist troops and they began moving toward Donetsk and Luhansk. So Putin escalated again, sending heavy artillery and more sophisticated weapons, including the one that shot down MH-17.
Miscalculation. Failure. Escalation. The downing of MH-17 is a logical consequence of the pattern.
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
I read one theory that Bad Vlad was playing with Hillary’s “Reset” button when the missile accidentally launched.
Only one small problem, Putin has yet to be proved guilty.
Personally I think he was involved even if only as the knowing supplier but on the face of it the Ukraine gov’t has more to gain from such an act. As the lawyers say “Cui bono?”
Any kind of mental imbalance is exacerbated by vast, virtually unchecked power. Obama was actually less mentally screwed up when he was first elected than he is now. Six or so years of being treated like a king has mushroomed Obama’s problems out of all proportion. Notice of late the who-gives-a-hoot level of golfing, partying, vacationing & fund raising. He acts like whether the public approves or disapproves is irrelevant. The king does what he wants to do, period. Also notice the increasingly weird, inappropriate giggling. It’s gotten 100x worse since he first entered the WH.
Putin is also not one-hundred percent sound mentally. He has virtually unlimited power, and he spends an outsized amount of time promoted the Cult of Putin. So many ‘manly’ photos of him riding a bear—bare chested—hunting, posing in KGB shades, ostentatiously showing off his pecs in a wife-beater shirt, etc. He has, if possible, an even more serious crush on himself than Obama.
When one’s mental instability is given unfettered rein, the judgment suffers. I.e.: people held to normal standards must evaluate their decisions & their environment from a real-world perspective. People w virtually unlimited power & a paid cadre of yes-men make decisions in a vacuum. No matter what they decide their inner circle praises them as demi-gods; the consequences of not doing so make this a given.
So Putin made a disastrous decision & his yes-squad assured him of its brilliance. His ego couldn’t see it any other way. Now he’s getting a rare taste of the real world. He won’t handle it well at all.
...other than the little fact that he's been running rings around 0baMao.
Putin is winning. He'll take all of Eastern and Southern Ukraine for the same reason a dog licks its testicles - because he can. As soon as that's over, he'll take (my guess) the Georgian Black Sea province of Adjaria (ethnically different from other Georgians, although related) and maybe more of Georgia, and have his hand on the switch of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. Europe will not dare to say a peep after that.
Then he'll have a free hand to annex the Russian-speaking parts of the former Soviet Empire, starting (my guess) with Northern Kazakhstan, after that the Baltics.
The only country that could rise to stop him is the United States. But we won't do that for the reasons described above.
So, Putin wins his old Soviet Empire back at the ridiculously low cost of a few half-hearted sanctions.
10 percent of what’s published in “Forbes” is accurate.
was there any evidence that Putin personally made a deliberate decision to down this airplane?
if so, I missed it... and this article would then be pure BS
Ukrainian Russian sympathizers
(possibly into the vodka)
fired at a target they believed to be Ukrainian military.
A tragic error.
I tend to agree it was a result of human error but you need more than that to start sanctioning a country and it never hurts to look at motive.
Breaking news: International investigators have pinpointed the exact location on the ground from which the missile was launched. They have provided photographs of the remains of a Book Depository, craftily concealed by the Separatists, not far from a Grassy Knoll, which could have served as the site of a back-up launcher, in case the first one failed.
As further proof, they cited the discovery at the site of numerous beer bottles.
NATO isn’t a single country.
A bigger question is why was Malaysia Airlines flying their airline in that airspace?
‘Only one small problem, Putin has yet to be proved guilty.’
If he was not involved in the shoot down itself, he certainly is the one that made it possible. When you give, or even loan, that kind & level of missile equipment to a bunch of drunken, undisciplined ‘rebels’ you are responsible for the uses they put it to.
I’ll believe it when I see it. Too many people here are exhibiting Putin Derangement Syndrome, where they can’t decide if he’s an evil genius or an addled moron. We’ve seen that movie before.
It was shot down from 33,000 feet, by weaponry that can do that, and it was done on purpose as they admitted in their on line bragging.
“So many manly photos of him riding a bear....”
You do realize that the “riding a bear” photos were fake — satire on the real “riding a horse in a manly fashion” photos. Putin never claimed to ride bears, just as Sarah Palin never claimed she could see Russia from her house.
If you don't know the answer to that question by now, it's fruitless to explain.
Maybe FR should switch to Cyrillic.
I'm so glad I don't have to be subjected to that here anymore.
Putin is a loser. His economic policies have been a disaster and now he is screwing up Russia's foreign policy. A competent president would have been able to maintain good relations with the Ukraine.
The guy's a joke and how anyone can admire him is a mystery to me. I suspect some (middle-aged homosexuals) get the hots when he takes off his shirt for them. Maybe they want to lick Putin's testicles, I don't know. Any attraction to Putin seems very strange to me.
They have been showing pre-crash videos of some of the wonderful people who were murdered because of Putin's incompetence. All I can say is that if you think he's some kind of genius, his peculiar genius killed a lot of wonderful, innocent people.
“It was a darn accident. If someone backs into your car at the grocery store parking lot, you don’t need to ask cui bono? Jeepers.”
It would be the equivalent to someone handing the keys to a monster dump trunk to a lunatic and telling them to drive to the grocery store parking lot and to run over cars with people inside of them.
This sort of mistake can happen even when you put superior gear in the hands of personnel are not drunken, undisciplined rebels.
The Aegis control room on board the USS Vincennes
If your only “proof” is anonymous social media, then you haven’t got any evidence at all.
What about the Russian radar tapes that show Ukrainian fighter jets approaching MH17? What’s that all about?
The "Stans" will need help against ISIS types sooner or later and where will they turn? To King Barry?
Just my humble speculation.
The free world has the evidence of the prideful admission by the Russian forces conducting the invasion.
I just hope we can stop you guys from becoming the threat to the world that you were.
Why are you going after America with a lie?
There is no comparison, and it does not justify your reassembling the evil empire.
“I just hope we can stop you guys from becoming the threat to the world that you were.”
I live in New Jersey. We’re not much of a threat to anyone.
Your alliance is with the enemy, that is why we are on two different sides.
Ha! Green screens! I can still program them!
Greg Satell Contributor
Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
He's also a writer for the Kiev (Ukrainian) Post
If this guy is smarter than Putin then he should be able to answer these questions:
1. Why did the MH17 plane leave the international corridor?
2. Was MH17 leaving the route a navigation mistake or was the crew following instructions by Ukrainian air traffic controllers in Dnepropetrovsk?
3. Why was a large group of air defense systems deployed to the militia-held area if the self-defense forces have no planes?
4. Why did Kiev deploy BUK missile systems on the edge of militia-controlled zones directly before the tragedy?
5. On the day of the crash Kiev intensified Kupol-M1 9S18 radar activity, key BUK system components. Why?
6. Where did the launcher from the video circulated by Western media and showing a Buk system being moved allegedly from Ukraine to Russia come from? As the video was made on the territory controlled by Kiev, where was the launcher being transported?
7. Why havent US officials revealed the evidence supporting claims that the MH17 was shot down by a missile launched by the militia?
Is this a Putin miscalculation? Or is he taking advantage of a void in leadership from the West, particularly the US?
I agree. Putin is a genius. An evil genius.
What you say is correct but it's quite beside the point. Do you imagine that anybody can become the President of Russia without having walked to the Kremlin office over human remains? Dmitry Medvedev had lots of people killed in his fight for huge forestry resources that became ultimately the plinth of his political power. I lived in Russia during his rise to power. The favored method was "suicide" by drawing in a swimming pool with the "suicide's" hands and feet tied. There were several of those "suicides" as I recall. All of them were ruled suicides, in a fine Orwellian display of in-your-face doublethink. Just dare to call it murder in Russia. Make a big stink about it. Any journalist that did wound up dead.
Lots of journalists killed in Putin's Russia.
No, Putin is an evil KGB apparatchik with enormous designs for the world stage.
The West can either stand up to him now, stand up to him later when he's much more powerful, or simply knuckle under. Given our current leadership, there's no hope that anybody will credibly stand up to him now. Given the current trends going on here at home, I have to say I'll probably be too busy dealing with tyranny at home to care much about what happens half a world away. It seems quite likely that Europe will knuckle under. Europe knows it, too, but they're such wussies that they'll never admit it.
That’s why Putin ultimately has to make a play for Central Asia.
I didn’t realize the bear/Putin photos were fake. The only place I’ve ever seen them is on this site, and they were posted as being real. I.e.: used to compare Putin’s manliness to Obama’s lack thereof. I figured bears have been trained to dance & ride motorcycles, etc. Why would it be impossible to train one to take a saddle? Glad for the clarification, though. It’s helpful.
8. What was the name and religion of the pilot and co-pilot of MH17?
9. Why were two Ukrainian fighter jets “escorting” it?
10. Was this plane shot down becuase it was hijacked and flying on a new course?
ABT: anything but terrorism!
Answers to questions 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7. A bunch of Russian drunks shot the plane down thinking it was military. Send my answer to your boss at Russia Today.
did you just make that up?
Who says Russia gave it to them? The separatists have been raiding military depots all over the Donbas and even claimed to have seized a Ukrainian BUK just two weeks before MH17 was shot down.
Judge for yourself:
According to the Sydney Morning Herald, the radar data on the fighter jet near MH17 is official and comes from the Russian government itself, not RT or Channel One. (I know enough to disregard anything that comes from those sources.)
Could be. A decade or so ago, the Norwegians (iirc) were launching a rocket with a scientific payload, having sent out the required international notices about the intended date/time/location.
That particular notice never reached the Russian missile launch monitoring chain of command, and they came very close to responding to the perceived "attack".
RT and Channel One are owned and controlled from the Kremlin.
I am supposed to trust Russia on this?