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Gary Shilling: "Q2 GDP Was Closer To 1% Than To 3%. It Could Even Be A Negative Number"
Zero Hedge ^

Posted on 07/27/2014 5:42:47 PM PDT by Perdogg

This week, in the aftermath of the Q1 -2.9% GDP disaster, the biggest "non-recessionary" drop in 67 years which was blamed on harsh weather (because there have never been harsh winters in the past 67 years), we get the first glimpse of what Q2 GDP was in the US economy. It is expected to print just shy of 3%. However, one person disagrees: Gary Shilling believes that not only will Q2 GDP be closer to 1% than to 3%, there is a fairly good chance it could be negative, which of course would mean that the US economy has officially entered a recession.

Shilling's take:

Special Report: No Spring Thaw

The consensus of economists looks for second quarter real GDP growth, which will be released July 30, of 3% vs. the first quarter at annual rates. It believes the 2.9% drop in the first quarter was cold weather-driven, and a rebound in the second quarter is the prelude to 3%-plus growth in the second half of the year. As in the last several years, the herd is likely to be disappointed.

(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events
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1 posted on 07/27/2014 5:42:47 PM PDT by Perdogg
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To: Perdogg

Somebody cooking the books again? Cooking the books looks to be SOP these days.


2 posted on 07/27/2014 5:44:05 PM PDT by no-to-illegals (Scrutinize our government and Secure the Blessing of Freedom and Justice)
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To: Perdogg

Obama has driven the country into a ditch.


3 posted on 07/27/2014 5:45:40 PM PDT by Viennacon (Barry Obama? No... Barack Hussein Soebarkah.)
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To: no-to-illegals

It is funny - the contrast between claims of unstoppable global warming - and also the claim that cold weather had an unprecedented, very negative, effect on economic growth.


4 posted on 07/27/2014 5:46:18 PM PDT by BlackVeil ('The past is never dead. It's not even past.' William Faulkner)
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To: Perdogg

Nonsense. Truck production is meeting the five-year plan quota, as is beet production, thanks to the work of Comrade Obama and the Central Committee.


5 posted on 07/27/2014 5:47:10 PM PDT by St_Thomas_Aquinas ( Isaiah 22:22, Matthew 16:19, Revelation 3:7)
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To: Viennacon
Obama has driven the country into a ditch.

Instead of building a LONG wall at the southern border, he has found it much easier to just build a smaller wall around the ditch, so that the country can't get out.

6 posted on 07/27/2014 5:49:34 PM PDT by C210N (When people fear government there is tyranny; when government fears people there is liberty)
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To: Perdogg

Gary Shilling is a financial analyst who’s written for Bloomberg, Forbes, The Wall Street Journal and more.


7 posted on 07/27/2014 5:49:39 PM PDT by familyop ("Dry land is not just our destination, it is our destiny!" - -Deacon character, "Waterworld")
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To: familyop

Will next wk's GDP data show #recession or, at best, very weak growth? Special Report: No Spring Thaw on my homepage http://t.co/fLT2Vsd0Gv— A. Gary Shilling (@agaryshilling) July 25, 2014


8 posted on 07/27/2014 5:50:29 PM PDT by Perdogg (I'm on a no Carb diet- NO Christie Ayotte Romney or Bush)
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To: BlackVeil
My agreement ... Guess they figure they have to tell us something in order that we will keep on keeping on or are the reports in order that we lose all hope and buckle under to the remaining loose change in our pockets.
9 posted on 07/27/2014 5:50:56 PM PDT by no-to-illegals (Scrutinize our government and Secure the Blessing of Freedom and Justice)
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To: blam

PING!!


10 posted on 07/27/2014 5:52:30 PM PDT by Kartographer ("We mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor.")
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To: Perdogg

If it is a recession, the court - jester media won’t let it be reported until after the GOP takes both houses in November.

Then we know whose fault it will be.


11 posted on 07/27/2014 5:59:39 PM PDT by bolobaby
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To: Perdogg
...which of course would mean that the US economy has officially entered a recession.

Actually, the standard definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters that AVERAGE less that 0%. That said, we are already in a technical recession.

12 posted on 07/27/2014 5:59:57 PM PDT by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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To: St_Thomas_Aquinas

And the chocolate ration has been increased.


13 posted on 07/27/2014 6:03:43 PM PDT by Bob
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To: Perdogg
So if it comes in around 4% or above it will be because of the unseasonably cooler weather(particularly Midwest/NE)that drove consumers out of the house and into the marketplace...and not necessarily Obama's policies.

...heh, with today's state-run media?

fat chance...prepare for the glorification oozing from the presstitutes!

14 posted on 07/27/2014 6:04:13 PM PDT by RckyRaCoCo (Shall Not Be Infringed)
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To: Perdogg
Got a name for this recession, the Obamacare slump!
15 posted on 07/27/2014 6:08:27 PM PDT by Plumres
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To: BlackVeil
"It is funny - the contrast between claims of unstoppable global warming - and also the claim that cold weather had an unprecedented, very negative, effect on economic growth."

Yes. It is. Here's what many in global corporations and government offices who spend large amounts of money on private research reports have really been afraid of.

Earths Magnetic Pole Shifting Accelerates
Taylor Rash
June 24, 2014
http://guardianlv.com/2014/06/earths-magnetic-pole-shifting-accelerates/

[familyop: Great increases in siesmic disturbances and volcanism might cause much atmospheric pollution, increased temperature fluctuations, mainly toward extrem cold fluctuations, slower evaporation with less rain (drought), odd displacements of weather patterns,... Markets would be much affected--especially commodities. They insist on propagandizing about the mythical, "anthropomorphic" "warming" problem, because they cling to their Atheism/Idolatries.]


16 posted on 07/27/2014 6:08:28 PM PDT by familyop ("Dry land is not just our destination, it is our destiny!" - -Deacon character, "Waterworld")
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To: no-to-illegals

They have been trying to tell us the economy is going awesome

the question is for who?


17 posted on 07/27/2014 6:10:09 PM PDT by GeronL (Vote for Conservatives not for Republicans)
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To: SampleMan

We never got out of the hole from 2009....recession ...?

No..this is a full on DEPRESSION. Worse than the mess FDR perpetuated.


18 posted on 07/27/2014 6:13:14 PM PDT by Ouderkirk (To the left, everything must evidence that this or that strand of leftist theory is true)
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To: Perdogg
Government spending includes = Part of the GDP

than

It's all just an illusion with $17 trillion/liabilities climbing. Eventually the House of Cards will implode as statisticians and economist withdraw in the fetal position with the word “unexpected” hauntingly repeated until the spin doctors come up with mass produced BS "figures" to reassure the populous.

19 posted on 07/27/2014 6:17:50 PM PDT by rollo tomasi (Working hard to pay for deadbeats and corrupt politicians.)
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To: Perdogg

>>Will next wk’s GDP data show #recession or, at best, very weak growth?<<

NO! The first report will look as rosy as can be. It is the two revisions afterward that will tell the story.

By the time we get to the second revision, the gubbamint will milly-mouth the numbers.


20 posted on 07/27/2014 6:18:14 PM PDT by servantboy777
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To: no-to-illegals
Somebody cooking the books again? Cooking the books looks to be SOP these days.

They're cooked down to pink slime, then sold to McDonald's to make hamburgers.

21 posted on 07/27/2014 6:18:23 PM PDT by tacticalogic
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To: GeronL
the question is for who?

Why The Puppet Masters of course...

22 posted on 07/27/2014 6:20:02 PM PDT by RckyRaCoCo (Shall Not Be Infringed)
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To: All

shouldn’t the number have been released by now? Or are they looking to do a doc dump filled with false assumptions and seasonal adjustments so Obama can lave for vaca with something positive to say like “hey, it could be worse”


23 posted on 07/27/2014 6:21:50 PM PDT by newnhdad (Our new motto: USA, it was fun while it lasted.)
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To: tacticalogic

I think you might have something there. Horror stories galore.


24 posted on 07/27/2014 6:22:49 PM PDT by no-to-illegals (Scrutinize our government and Secure the Blessing of Freedom and Justice)
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To: St_Thomas_Aquinas

We must be vigilant against the Kulaks and wreckers of the Tea party.


25 posted on 07/27/2014 6:23:42 PM PDT by dynachrome (Vertrou in God en die Mauser)
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To: Perdogg

Not stated in the article is that whatever GDP figure they come up with, it is OVERSTATED. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), in arriving at their FINAL GDP estimates each quarter, ADJUSTS them by the amount of inflation that occurred during the period. For example, if an UNADJUSTED GDP growth figure for a period is at a 3% rate and inflation during the period is measured at a 1% rate, the ADJUSTED (i.e., constant dollar value) GDP growth rate is 2%. However, if the REAL inflation rate for the period would be 4% at an annual rate, the GDP ADJUSTED (again, in constant dollar values) growth rate would be MINUS 1%. In other words the economy would be contracting instead of expanding.

Many folks believe that the BLS is intentionally understating the rate of inflation. This serves the dual purpose of keeping costs down for inflation adjusted expenditures (e.g., Social Security, military retirement payments) plus painting an BOGUS overly optimistic figure for the growth of the economy.

Many folks also believe that the pre-adjustment GDP figures are also falsely measured to appear larger than they actually are as discussed in the article that is the subject of this thread.

In other words, things are substantially WORSE than our government is telling us.


26 posted on 07/27/2014 6:24:26 PM PDT by House Atreides (ANOTHER CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN FOR CHILDERS 2014 .... Don't reward bad GOPe behavior.)
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To: Perdogg

the answer to this is that we need more mexicans


27 posted on 07/27/2014 6:28:22 PM PDT by equalator
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To: House Atreides

If you back out government spending, things are even worse.

If I understand correctly, government spending is considered part of GDP.

Which is madness, but, there it is.


28 posted on 07/27/2014 6:32:50 PM PDT by stylin_geek (Never underestimate the power of government to distort markets)
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To: Bob

Exactly what I was thinking.
1984 wasn’t suppose to be a how to do manual.


29 posted on 07/27/2014 6:40:43 PM PDT by hans56 ( Audit the FED)
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To: Perdogg

I’ve heard Herman Cain say on his radio program many times:

That 17 BILLION in debt can never be repaid and it’s never going away.

Amen.


30 posted on 07/27/2014 6:42:08 PM PDT by upchuck (It's a shame nobama truly doesn't care about any of this. Our country, our future, he doesn't care.)
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To: Perdogg
In the end, the biggest problem is that the new Obamacare mandates starting this year (2014) are slowing down the economy because companies--still just unsure what those mandates mean--are not willing to hire on a larger scale until we get clarity on the mandates.
31 posted on 07/27/2014 6:46:33 PM PDT by RayChuang88 (FairTax: America's economic cure)
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To: Ouderkirk

I don’t disagree, just pointing out that even using their numbers, it’s a technical recession


32 posted on 07/27/2014 6:52:08 PM PDT by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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To: stylin_geek
That's right. Government spending is counted as part of the GDP.
33 posted on 07/27/2014 7:04:58 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: expat_panama
Zero Hedge is always wrong, right?
34 posted on 07/27/2014 7:13:44 PM PDT by Chgogal (Obama "hung the SEALs out to dry, basically exposed them like a set of dog balls..." CMH)
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To: hinckley buzzard

Since we’re currently borrowing 40 cents of every dollar spent, what does the math say about the real economy?

Kind of scary, isn’t it?


35 posted on 07/27/2014 7:18:57 PM PDT by stylin_geek (Never underestimate the power of government to distort markets)
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To: upchuck; null and void

~~~That 17 BILLION in debt can never be repaid and it’s never going away~~~

Oh, it’s much, much worse than that.

U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time

There’s an additional (nearly) $120 Trillion Dollars in unfunded liabilities.

Add in the National Debt and it’s over $137 Trillion Dollars.


36 posted on 07/27/2014 7:27:35 PM PDT by F15Eagle (1Jn4:15;5:4-5,11-13;Mt27:50-54;Mk15:33-34;Jn3:17-18,6:69,11:25,14:6,20:31;Ro10:8-11;1Tm2:5-6;Ti3:4-7)
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To: equalator

Don’t forget they’re importing MS-13 from Honduras. And folks from Nicaragua, etc.

But, let’s not put Americans to work again.

Why that’s just plain crazy talk.

Hope.

Change.


37 posted on 07/27/2014 7:29:08 PM PDT by F15Eagle (1Jn4:15;5:4-5,11-13;Mt27:50-54;Mk15:33-34;Jn3:17-18,6:69,11:25,14:6,20:31;Ro10:8-11;1Tm2:5-6;Ti3:4-7)
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To: Kartographer

I don’t believe anything anymore.


38 posted on 07/27/2014 7:38:44 PM PDT by blam (Jeff Sessions For President)
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To: Perdogg


39 posted on 07/27/2014 7:49:51 PM PDT by Iron Munro (IRONY)
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To: BlackVeil

“It is funny - the contrast between claims of unstoppable global warming - and also the claim that cold weather had an unprecedented, very negative, effect on economic growth.”

Yes I am convinced that liberals actually like to make the case that hotter weather means global warming and colder winters mean global warming. They seem to relish explaining how colder weather is evidence for global warming. Just a theory — but I think they want to break the public from independent thought and common sense and insist we just believe anything and everything they say. Its a form of conditioning.


40 posted on 07/27/2014 7:55:41 PM PDT by plain talk
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To: Chgogal
Zero Hedge is always wrong, right?

Golly it would sure be fun if "always wrong" was certain! 

Whether the first Q2 GDP comes out high and stocks surge or it's low and they tank, what's for sure is things are spooky and it's not the kind of environment I do well in.  Related: "Get ready for 48 hours — and a little more — of the most intense outpouring of information on the U.S. economy you’re likely to ever see." Market Watch

41 posted on 07/28/2014 4:23:33 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: servantboy777
It is the two revisions afterward that will tell the story.

Yes, but the first number will be on the front pages along with glorious pictures of the King of Amerika, and the revisions will be on page 47 along with the foreclosure notices and yard sale ads.

42 posted on 07/28/2014 4:33:42 AM PDT by Fresh Wind (The last remnants of the Old Republic have been swept away.)
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To: Perdogg
IIRC two quarters of negative GDP = [THIS POST HAS BEEN REDACTED BY THE NSA]
43 posted on 07/28/2014 4:37:00 AM PDT by Mad Dawgg (If you're going to deny my 1st Amendment rights then I must proceed to the 2nd one...)
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To: SampleMan

IT simply stunning that the enemy media spins this nonsense to protect Obastard.

The Economy suck, and it has been lousy since this POS was inaugurated. It hasn’t gotten better in any measurable way..it has stagnated and what is not becoming evident that it is slowly getting worse.


44 posted on 07/28/2014 4:45:05 AM PDT by Ouderkirk (To the left, everything must evidence that this or that strand of leftist theory is true)
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To: Perdogg; familyop

imho, oil/gas related economic activity will keep the economy from going negative. But that’s all happening mid continent —away from the coasts.


45 posted on 07/28/2014 5:18:59 AM PDT by ckilmer (q)
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To: Fresh Wind

lol.......you bet’cha


46 posted on 07/28/2014 8:14:53 AM PDT by servantboy777
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To: expat_panama
From your link:

In any case, [this week or month] the Commerce Department is revising GDP data from the last three years....

So look for things to reportedly be better soon!

47 posted on 07/28/2014 10:27:37 AM PDT by citizen (There is always free government cheese in the mouse trap.....https://twitter.com/kracker0)
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To: F15Eagle
I remember Trey Gowdy peppering Tim Geithner back in 2012 or so, asking him if this was the final request for a Debt Ceiling Increase---"If this were the last debt ceiling request you could ask for … the final one and you had to make it large enough for all current and future obligations, what would the request need to be?” and Tim Rephrases the question. Trey says 20 Trillion? 50 Trillion? And Geithner comes back and says, "The Number would make you uncomfortable" and he very uncomfortably leans back in his chair.

3 minute Video here:

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/03/21/geithner-to-gowdy-if-treasury-could-ask-for-just-one-more-debt-ceiling-increase-the-amount-wed-request-would-make-you-uncomfortable/

48 posted on 07/28/2014 1:52:43 PM PDT by Pagey (HELL is The 2nd Term of a POTUS who uses the terms “social justice” and “fair distribution".)
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To: ckilmer; Perdogg
"imho, oil/gas related economic activity will keep the economy from going negative. But that’s all happening mid continent —away from the coasts."

That's good to know, because demands might be higher in the near future. It might be a good idea for field managers and employees in northern and higher elevation areas to prepare for possibly greater cold fluctuations rougly between 3 and 9 years from now with further adjustments in clothing, equipment (e.g., propane pressure drops, bury-able tanks or heat tape blankets, antifreeze mix better than 50/50 and lighter oil in vehicles) and heating systems (polyisocyanurate insulation only on outsides of travel trailers--not insides, actively vented catalytic heaters with thermostats,...). Those measures might cut future costs and raise morale whether we see unusual weather events or not.


49 posted on 07/28/2014 2:08:36 PM PDT by familyop ("Dry land is not just our destination, it is our destiny!" - -Deacon character, "Waterworld")
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To: familyop; Perdogg

for possibly greater cold fluctuations rougly between 3 and 9 years from now with further adjustments in clothing,
..................
US oil production this year and next will go up a million barrels@ day and so far predictions are for 500k barrel @ day increases for 2016-2020. I don’t think this will break the price of oil because demand for oil is high and going higher overseas. The USA and Canada are the only producers increasing oil production. Everywhere else in the world is flat to down.

but sometime after 2020 likely increasing use of natural gas trains trucks cars and buildings —plus electric cars if Tesla forces the worlds car companies to shift production to electric cars as seems more and more likely given the intense talk in the automobile industry — ... these will suck out the demand for oil so that by 2030 oil prices will be about 1/3 of what they are today. or about $35@ barrel which on a btu basis is where natural gas and coal are today — and where oil was from 1940-1970 ... priced in 2014 dollars.


50 posted on 07/28/2014 2:51:05 PM PDT by ckilmer (q)
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