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Who's Winning the War in Ukraine? Answer May Shock You!
Townhall.com ^ | July 27, 2014 | Mike Shedlock

Posted on 07/27/2014 6:25:24 PM PDT by Kaslin

Here's the question, not of the day, but of the month: Who's Winning the War in Ukraine?

That may sound like a simple question, but it isn't.

That question leads to a second question "In whose eyes?" It also depends on the definition of "war". And it also depends on the definition of "win". And finally it depends on which media source you believe.

Military Aspect

From a military aspect, I have seen reports from both sides. The Western media portrays Ukraine on the march with the rebels surrounded, and losing ground. Is that accurate reporting?

I will let you be the judge. Please consider this video released on Friday.

Video

The caption reads Всё что осталось от 72-й бригады ВСУ 25.07.2014

Diving into the details here is my rough translation (interpretation from the video) : "Ukraine's 72nd brigade is now an additional battalion short."

Where the bodies are, I don't know . But that is highly unlikely to be a fake video.

And contrary to Western media reports, my sources have said for a week "various Ukraine forces are trapped, looking for a way to escape to Russia".

Clearly, one of them failed to make it.

Are the Rebels Winning?

In whose Eyes? And what does "winning" mean?

In the eyes of the media, Ukraine is winning. The front page news everywhere you look says Ukraine is winning.

More importantly, the media has lined up behind Ukraine and now 22 US senators are willing to blame Putin and do everything they can to stop Russia.

Senator McCain, as always, is leading the pack.

Pat Buchanan exposed McCain the other day for the war-mongering hypocrite that he is. David Stockman has the details in My thoughts On Pat Buchanan’s Brilliant And Incisive Take On Washington’s Ukrainian Fiasco.

Senator John McCain’s call to arm the ruffians, opportunists, oligarchs and neo-fascists who took power in a street level coup in Kiev is downright lunatic. It causes Buchanan to ask, “Who is the real problem here?”

Propaganda War

When it comes to the propaganda war, McCain and his primary war-mongering ally (none other than president Obama) are clearly winning! The only difference between the two is McCain is a far bigger war-monger than Obama.

Obama is likely to catch up. He usually does.

Energy

Yet, one must step back and ask "What the hell is this war really about?"

Is it NATO? Or is it energy?

I happen to believe both. Starting from that scorecard, please consider my post on Thursday Ukraine Government Breaks Up: Prime Minister Resigns Over "Vital Laws on Energy and Army Financing"; Follow the Money

Synopsis: The Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk resigned and that will lead to early elections in which pro-Russian MPs will be removed from parliament.

In essence, Ukraine will be more pro-NATO. But that's not all.

Biden's Son, Kerry Family Friend Join Ukrainian Gas Producer's Board

Please consider this resignation statement as noted by RIA: "Yatsenyuk also expressed disappointment with Ukrainian parliament’s decision to reject a bill that allows the government to hand over up to 49 percent of the country’s gas transport system to investors from the European Union and the United States."

In response I said "Follow the Money"

I neglected to report precisely where the money flowed.

The Wall Street Journal has all you need to know with this May headline regarding Biden, Kerry, and Ukraine: Biden's Son, Kerry Family Friend Join Ukrainian Gas Producer's Board.

Who's Winning?

You tell me. Before you do, please define "win".



TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: nato; ukraine; war

1 posted on 07/27/2014 6:25:24 PM PDT by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

Sounds like a Putinist slipped through the cracks of Townhall. Cheering for the Russkies? Praising that fool Buchanan who thinks Putin is a Christian leader of some kind? These wretches need to be identified and purged from the movement.


2 posted on 07/27/2014 6:31:34 PM PDT by Greetings_Puny_Humans (I mostly come out at night... mostly.)
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To: Kaslin

I’m getting to decipher the point of this article and failing miserably...

In my mind it’s not about who’s winning but about what the world will do in the face of Putin’s imperialism.

Who will emerge... Neville Chamberlain, or Sir Winston?


3 posted on 07/27/2014 6:34:12 PM PDT by BlueNgold (Have we crossed the line from Govt. in righteous fear of the People - to a People in fear of Govt??)
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To: Kaslin

The DemocRAT cronies are winning. Same as it ever was.


4 posted on 07/27/2014 6:41:40 PM PDT by House Atreides (ANOTHER CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN FOR CHILDERS 2014 .... Don't reward bad GOPe behavior.)
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To: Kaslin
Senator McCain, as always, is leading the pack.

LOL

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
5 posted on 07/27/2014 6:54:20 PM PDT by cripplecreek (Remember the River Raisin.)
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To: Kaslin

OOPSY!

The author mentioned THIS:
“Biden’s Son, Kerry Family Friend Join Ukrainian Gas Producer’s Board”

He must be a “Putinista Propaganda troll!!”, according to some current FR posters.

This is just too inconvenient a truth.

Could you just imagine if it was a Cheney or Bush family member? The media screaming would be nonstop 24/7.


6 posted on 07/27/2014 6:57:13 PM PDT by tcrlaf (Q)
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To: Kaslin

“Biden’s Son, Kerry Family Friend Join Ukrainian Gas Producer’s Board”

Just running it up the old flagpole ... but if they could find some endangered Slavic turtles, jumping mice, spotted owls or snail darters, the UN could order that all the Ukraine be designated a nature preserve.
Then Hairy Reed and his boy could come in and build solar farms, thus no need for natural gas. Of course then Biden and Kerry will want to tangle with Hairy & Son, so it’s all good, win/win all around.


7 posted on 07/27/2014 7:00:12 PM PDT by tumblindice (America's founding fathers: all armed conservatives)
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To: Greetings_Puny_Humans

Apparently he’s one of these guys who says we are all doomed and wants to sell you gold. His admiration for Buchanan is a hint as to who he thinks might be behind the conspiracy to destroy America: the jooooos!


8 posted on 07/27/2014 7:05:42 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
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To: Kaslin

He hasn’t been following the war very closely if he is surprised by this news.

Russians have been kicking Ukraniane ass.


9 posted on 07/27/2014 7:12:53 PM PDT by Pikachu_Dad (Impeach Sen Quinn)
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To: Pikachu_Dad
He hasn’t been following the war very closely if he is surprised by this news. have been kicking Ukraniane ass.

Actually the area of pro Russian occupation has gotten quite puny.

As folks who have been closely following the war know.

10 posted on 07/27/2014 7:27:56 PM PDT by FreeReign
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To: FreeReign
Actually the area of pro Russian occupation has gotten quite puny.

As folks who have been closely following the war know.

Some links to preferred sources?

11 posted on 07/27/2014 8:03:48 PM PDT by Gunslingr3
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To: Gunslingr3

Link

This was from much earlier today. I've heard UK forces took back Torez since. It will probably come down to the two big cities soon.

12 posted on 07/27/2014 8:11:35 PM PDT by FreeReign
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To: tcrlaf
From the article:

...Ukrainian parliament’s decision to reject a bill that allows the government to hand over up to 49 percent of the country’s gas transport system to investors from the European Union and the United States."

(Emphasis mine)

Details, details...

13 posted on 07/27/2014 9:50:30 PM PDT by Paul R. (Leftists desire to control everything; In the end they invariably control nothing worth a damn.)
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To: Gunslingr3

Putin’s escalation of direct Russian involvement is due to the fact that his proxies losing; it’s not a sign they’re winning. It’s a scumbag army led by misfits and vile cretins. It’s not an army of freedom fighters.


14 posted on 07/27/2014 10:45:35 PM PDT by elhombrelibre (Against Obama. Against Putin. Pro-freedom. Pro-US Constitution.)
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To: FreeReign

There are a number of these maps online, all pretty similar.

Some of the Ukrainian forces along the border are definitely in jeopardy, depending mostly on what actions the Russians on the Russian side take against them (shelling, missile attacks, or more), but, in general the separatist / invader coalition is in greater danger of eventually being encircled and cut off.*

I would note that I have read that Ukraine has called up another 50k reservists, expecting Putin to make a move, or perhaps to try to give him pause. (Can anyone confirm this call-up?)

I still think Ukraine can eventually “win” even against a large Russian invasion, IF Ukraine is willing to take very heavy casualties and still resist. I do not think Putin can afford an “Afghanistan” adventure vs. a relatively high tech country the size of Ukraine. Historically, Ukraine is certainly no stranger to heavy casualties.

*Note that Ukraine may have a different strategy which answers a question of mine: If the Ukraine army surrounds the rebel / invaders, and the bulk of them surrender, then what? Perhaps Ukraine would be better served to leave part of the border open for pro-Russians to flee to Russia. Heck, Russia asked the U.N. to pass a resolution providing, essentially, just that: creation of corridors allowing noncombatants to leave.

This may play right into Kiev’s plans: In return for higher Ukrainian Army casualties now, if, say 10% of the Ethnic Russians in Ukraine flee to Russia, which I believe RT says has already happened (RT claimed 675,000 as of March 2 of this year — Google or Bing it), then the pro-west camp gains a virtual political lock on the country for the indefinite future.


15 posted on 07/27/2014 10:47:48 PM PDT by Paul R. (Leftists desire to control everything; In the end they invariably control nothing worth a damn.)
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To: Kaslin

Shedlock is a Buchananite and Putinista, so something else about him becomes obvious.


16 posted on 07/27/2014 10:55:06 PM PDT by familyop ("Dry land is not just our destination, it is our destiny!" - -Deacon character, "Waterworld")
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To: Kaslin

The Russians did quite a job of murdering Dutch people.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qz3yjevQYAg


17 posted on 07/27/2014 11:12:03 PM PDT by familyop ("Dry land is not just our destination, it is our destiny!" - -Deacon character, "Waterworld")
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To: Paul R.

Details? Parliament DID reject the bill... and was suspended and will be replaced. That’s Democracy for you: “You didn’t do as we demanded? Fine, we’ll replace you and bring someone else in.”


18 posted on 07/27/2014 11:21:31 PM PDT by dangus
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To: tumblindice
the UN could order that all the Ukraine be designated a nature preserve.


19 posted on 07/27/2014 11:32:00 PM PDT by cynwoody
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To: Kaslin

Putinite propaganda, and crude at that. I loved the part about the “warmonger Obama”. Amazing that there are still Putinites here on FR. He’s a communist dictator, you morons!


20 posted on 07/28/2014 12:40:59 AM PDT by ozzymandus
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To: Kaslin

who is this Shedlock?


21 posted on 07/28/2014 1:25:50 AM PDT by free_life (If you ask Jesus to forgive you and to save you, He will.)
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To: Kaslin

Crossed into Russia.... Video describing it below...

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=8f0_1406532551


22 posted on 07/28/2014 2:21:17 AM PDT by LowOiL ("Abomination" sure sounds like "ObamaNation" to me.)
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To: Paul R.

“If the Ukraine army surrounds the rebel / invaders, and the bulk of them surrender, then what? Perhaps Ukraine would be better served to leave part of the border open for pro-Russians to flee to Russia. Heck, Russia asked the U.N. to pass a resolution providing, essentially, just that: creation of corridors allowing noncombatants to leave.”

Do you work for Border Patrol? Even our Afghanistan policy isn’t that stupid.


23 posted on 07/28/2014 2:51:23 AM PDT by Justa
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To: Kaslin
Sure both sides use propaganda quite heavily, hover on the Ukrainian side it's a matter of blowing things out of proportions, when they claim a major victory, it often means that they took down ~20 “rebels”, on the other hand, what comes out of “rebels”/Russian media is totally out of touch with reality, If that all was true, “rebels” would have taken Kiev long time ago and now would be driving to the Atlantic coast...

That video with destroyed vehicles... I think I saw it some weeks ago... If I had to guess, I would say the army blew up their own broken vehicles (which got broken during a long “march” - vast majority of their hardware is old Soviet era crap - and couldn't be quickly fixed in the field) to prevent “rebels” from taking them over. Anyway, It's just a few vehicles, not a battalion... Ukrainian army, which has been totally underfunded since the end of Soviet era, is sure struggling to defeat the “rebels” but “rebel” controlled territory is getting smaller, not bigger and unless Russia increase their support even more, it should be over before the end of summer.

24 posted on 07/28/2014 9:09:59 AM PDT by Grzegorz 246
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To: ozzymandus

‘’’loved the part about the “warmonger Obama”. Amazing that there are still Putinites here on FR. He’s a communist dictator, you morons!’’

Correct- In reality our prez’s actions have been helping putler.Most of our government actions helping putler,
no matter what they are saying. Their dithering around
in giving help helps russian aggression, while their very active dismantling of our military aids russia also..


25 posted on 07/29/2014 1:30:18 AM PDT by hubel458
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