Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Republicansí Senate Chances Rise Slightly to 60 Percent
THE UPSHOT: New York Times ^ | 07/28/2014 | Amanda Cox and Josh Katz

Posted on 07/28/2014 7:14:49 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

For the last month, we’ve been adding one or two polls a day to The Upshot’s Senate forecasting model. Today, we update all 36 races, based on estimates from a YouGov online panel that covers every congressional and governor’s race across the country.

The panel, asked for its preferences in collaboration with CBS and The New York Times, is unusual in its scope: It comprises more than 66,000 people living in states with a Senate race this year. YouGov, a polling firm, also conducted online interviews with roughly half of the panelists in previous years, allowing it to know how they voted in the past.

With the addition of the YouGov estimates to our model, the overall outlook for the Senate remains roughly the same. The Republicans appear to have a slight advantage, with the most likely outcome being a Republican gain of six seats, the minimum they need to finish with a 51-to-49-seat majority. But we, like many other forecasters, would not be surprised by a gain of anywhere from four to eight seats.

Summing up the possible outcomes, our model gives the Republicans a 60 percent chance of taking control, up from 54 percent on April 1.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2014; gopestablishment; republicans; senate; teaparty

1 posted on 07/28/2014 7:14:50 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Read the comments - they’re a hoot.


2 posted on 07/28/2014 7:18:06 AM PDT by proxy_user
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All
Just keep em pouring over the border--I need the votes."

"I'm okay as long as I don't lose power in midterms."

3 posted on 07/28/2014 7:24:12 AM PDT by Liz (Another Clinton administration? Are you nuts?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Liz; Lady Jag; Jane Long; RitaOK; smoothsailing; LucyT; B4Ranch; All

Speaker “Blank Check” Boehner keeps “Free for All” Obama in power by not controlling spending or Impeaching Obama.

“Gridlock” Reid shuts down the DEMOCRAT BROTHERHOOD GOVERNMENT, (DBG), anytime that Boehner refuses to write Obama a Blank Check.

“Free for All” Obama is more than happy to play hooky from his day job and fly around on the taxpayer’s dime to raise Campaign money for “Gridlock” Reid’s Senate Candidates, and the DBG.

“Blank Check” Boehner is the key man to allow “Free for All” Obama to continue to fundamentally transform America, and Obama knows it.

Force Boehner to resign, and Obama will be at the mercy of New Speaker Jim Jordan or Trey Gowdy.

Keep Boehner as Speaker and there is very little reason to expect Mid-Term Voters to find an effective difference between Republicans and Democrats.


4 posted on 07/28/2014 7:27:34 AM PDT by Graewoulf (Democrats' Obamacare Socialist Health Insur. Tax violates U.S. Constitution AND Anti-Trust Law.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Graewoulf

Amen, Grae’, AMEN!
Thanks for the ping.


5 posted on 07/28/2014 7:33:22 AM PDT by RitaOK ( VIVA CRISTO REY / Public education is the farm team for more Marxists coming.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

As I’ve said, should stay between 50-60% through election day.


6 posted on 07/28/2014 7:36:24 AM PDT by RIghtwardHo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Graewoulf

I do love the way you think/dream, but even if the GOPe takes back the Senate ... nothing changes. 2016 is the one that matters.


7 posted on 07/28/2014 7:37:14 AM PDT by RIghtwardHo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: proxy_user
The level of ignorance in this post is astounding:

Mary

is a trusted commenter Brooklyn 19 hours ago

End of democracy as we know it if the Senate goes to these reactionary people and their policies that we already know don't work. Obama did not get to enact any of his policies because of their ability to obstruct and his desire to not rock the boat further. All I can say is wake up America and stop watching FOX

8 posted on 07/28/2014 7:39:58 AM PDT by raybbr (Obamacare needs a death panel.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

The best chances for Republicans between now and November is if they do NOTHING!

Don’t do anything to distract the country from the suicidal spiral this MANIACAL POSPOTUS is taking the country into.


9 posted on 07/28/2014 7:43:59 AM PDT by LibFreeUSA
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Even if the GOP occupied 60 senate seats, there are still too many RINO’s to make this position advantageous to the Pubs.


10 posted on 07/28/2014 7:45:20 AM PDT by 353FMG
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: proxy_user

Yes! I liked this one:

“If Republicans take over the Senate, that gives them breathing room to impeach Hillary before she is elected.”

(Probably from a hopeful neighbor of hers next door.)


11 posted on 07/28/2014 7:49:26 AM PDT by RitaOK ( VIVA CRISTO REY / Public education is the farm team for more Marxists coming.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
Lol! you can tell this is the New York Times when a 10 point advantage is “slight” advantage and a 6 point jump in a month is a “slight” increase....
12 posted on 07/28/2014 7:53:17 AM PDT by apillar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

But what about NC, where Lawton Chiles’ liberal niece is amassing a large lead for the old Helms seat?


13 posted on 07/28/2014 7:53:50 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Liberals keep winning; so the American people must now be all-liberal all the time.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 353FMG

That’s true, they had 57, I believe, under Howard Henry Baker, Jr., in 1981, and it didn’t matter too much.


14 posted on 07/28/2014 7:54:41 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Liberals keep winning; so the American people must now be all-liberal all the time.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Keep in mind, this is the LIBERAL New York Slimes....it is a house organ dedicated to trumpeting and helping Demon Rats.


15 posted on 07/28/2014 8:09:50 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Theodore R.

I don’t think McConnell is anywhere close to 82% chance of winning Kentucky. I’d put it as close to a toss-up right now.

Grimes is running a decent campaign so far... and, Mitch?? Well...he keeps stepping in it.

Kentucky is a RED state... but, a whole bunch of Red-necks, and other RED-types have vowed to never vote for “The Undertaker” again...


16 posted on 07/28/2014 8:14:23 AM PDT by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Polls still show Pryor (AR) and Landreau (LA) losing to their Republican challengers. Both races are still close, withing the margin of error.

Pryor support PACs are running some nasty ads against Cotton. The ads reek with half-truths and incomplete allegations. A recent ad even attacks the Koch brothers — Harry Reid influence?


17 posted on 07/28/2014 8:16:16 AM PDT by TomGuy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Graewoulf

“Force Boehner to resign, and Obama will be at the mercy of New Speaker Jim Jordan or Trey Gowdy.
Keep Boehner as Speaker and there is very little reason to expect Mid-Term Voters to find an effective difference between Republicans and Democrats.”

You took the words right out of my mouth. Getting rid of both Boner (especially Boner) and Reid is essential if anything of any substance is going to happen the next two years.


18 posted on 07/28/2014 8:20:03 AM PDT by vette6387
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: RIghtwardHo

I wish the GOP would take the Senate back but I’m not holding my breath.


19 posted on 07/28/2014 8:42:07 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose o f a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: raybbr

What should we watch?


20 posted on 07/28/2014 9:02:06 AM PDT by reefdiver (Be the Best you can be Whatever you Dream to be)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson