Skip to comments.Republicansí Senate Chances Rise Slightly to 60 Percent
Posted on 07/28/2014 7:14:49 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
For the last month, weve been adding one or two polls a day to The Upshots Senate forecasting model. Today, we update all 36 races, based on estimates from a YouGov online panel that covers every congressional and governors race across the country.
The panel, asked for its preferences in collaboration with CBS and The New York Times, is unusual in its scope: It comprises more than 66,000 people living in states with a Senate race this year. YouGov, a polling firm, also conducted online interviews with roughly half of the panelists in previous years, allowing it to know how they voted in the past.
With the addition of the YouGov estimates to our model, the overall outlook for the Senate remains roughly the same. The Republicans appear to have a slight advantage, with the most likely outcome being a Republican gain of six seats, the minimum they need to finish with a 51-to-49-seat majority. But we, like many other forecasters, would not be surprised by a gain of anywhere from four to eight seats.
Summing up the possible outcomes, our model gives the Republicans a 60 percent chance of taking control, up from 54 percent on April 1.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Read the comments - they’re a hoot.
"I'm okay as long as I don't lose power in midterms."
Speaker Blank Check Boehner keeps Free for All Obama in power by not controlling spending or Impeaching Obama.
Gridlock Reid shuts down the DEMOCRAT BROTHERHOOD GOVERNMENT, (DBG), anytime that Boehner refuses to write Obama a Blank Check.
Free for All Obama is more than happy to play hooky from his day job and fly around on the taxpayers dime to raise Campaign money for Gridlock Reids Senate Candidates, and the DBG.
Blank Check Boehner is the key man to allow Free for All Obama to continue to fundamentally transform America, and Obama knows it.
Force Boehner to resign, and Obama will be at the mercy of New Speaker Jim Jordan or Trey Gowdy.
Keep Boehner as Speaker and there is very little reason to expect Mid-Term Voters to find an effective difference between Republicans and Democrats.
Amen, Grae’, AMEN!
Thanks for the ping.
As I’ve said, should stay between 50-60% through election day.
I do love the way you think/dream, but even if the GOPe takes back the Senate ... nothing changes. 2016 is the one that matters.
is a trusted commenter Brooklyn 19 hours ago
End of democracy as we know it if the Senate goes to these reactionary people and their policies that we already know don't work. Obama did not get to enact any of his policies because of their ability to obstruct and his desire to not rock the boat further. All I can say is wake up America and stop watching FOX
The best chances for Republicans between now and November is if they do NOTHING!
Don’t do anything to distract the country from the suicidal spiral this MANIACAL POSPOTUS is taking the country into.
Even if the GOP occupied 60 senate seats, there are still too many RINO’s to make this position advantageous to the Pubs.
Yes! I liked this one:
“If Republicans take over the Senate, that gives them breathing room to impeach Hillary before she is elected.”
(Probably from a hopeful neighbor of hers next door.)
But what about NC, where Lawton Chiles’ liberal niece is amassing a large lead for the old Helms seat?
That’s true, they had 57, I believe, under Howard Henry Baker, Jr., in 1981, and it didn’t matter too much.
Keep in mind, this is the LIBERAL New York Slimes....it is a house organ dedicated to trumpeting and helping Demon Rats.
I don’t think McConnell is anywhere close to 82% chance of winning Kentucky. I’d put it as close to a toss-up right now.
Grimes is running a decent campaign so far... and, Mitch?? Well...he keeps stepping in it.
Kentucky is a RED state... but, a whole bunch of Red-necks, and other RED-types have vowed to never vote for “The Undertaker” again...
Polls still show Pryor (AR) and Landreau (LA) losing to their Republican challengers. Both races are still close, withing the margin of error.
Pryor support PACs are running some nasty ads against Cotton. The ads reek with half-truths and incomplete allegations. A recent ad even attacks the Koch brothers — Harry Reid influence?
“Force Boehner to resign, and Obama will be at the mercy of New Speaker Jim Jordan or Trey Gowdy.
Keep Boehner as Speaker and there is very little reason to expect Mid-Term Voters to find an effective difference between Republicans and Democrats.”
You took the words right out of my mouth. Getting rid of both Boner (especially Boner) and Reid is essential if anything of any substance is going to happen the next two years.
I wish the GOP would take the Senate back but I’m not holding my breath.
What should we watch?