Skip to comments.New CBS/NYT Poll Shows Possible GOP Senate Wave Forming
Posted on 07/29/2014 11:22:19 AM PDT by cotton1706
A new CBS/NYT poll has been released which is thus far the most exhaustive simultaneous battleground poll that has been taken this election season. It shows Republicans holding all their close seats, with McConnell leading Grimes 50-46 and Perdue leading Nunn 50-44. Obviously, these races are still very competitive and could flip although I think that as time goes along Perdue will pull away from Nunn while McConnell looks to be in a dogfight to the very end.
As predicted, John Walsh is all but officially toast in Montana, trailing Danes 56-40. The plagiarism scandal seems to have mortally wounded Walsh in what was a long shot race for them to begin with, and we may not have yet seen the fallout from that one. As expected, Mike Rounds is winning the open seat in SD in a laugher, which puts the GOP at a solid +2. Shelly Moore Capito is shown with a high single digit (51-43) lead in WV, which is consistent with other polling. Absent a stunning development in one of these races the GOP begins the election season looking at a +3 advantage, confirming everything we thought we knew thus far about the race for the Senate.
That is where things get ugly for the Dems. This poll shows the Dems also losing Arkansas (Cotton +4), North Carolina (Tillis +1), Louisiana (Cassidy +1), Iowa (Ernst +1), and Michigan (Land +1) which, if true, would give the GOP 53 seats in 2015. Obviously, a number of these races are very close and, in the case of Michigan in particular, bucking a states partisan trend. But where many of these races are too close to call, the Dems are also up by too close to call in AK (Begich +2), and CO (Udall +4).
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
Incumbent Dem under 50%... Lot of ‘em. The only incumbent GOP under 50% I know of is McConnell in KY
What did they say about Carr in Tennessee?
I suppose anything is possible, but I wouldn't bet the farm on your scenario.
(Not that I have a farm, anyway.)
Before anyone gets too excited, any Pubbie up by 1 or 2 points is going to lose due to Dem vote fraud.
Too close to call is also going to the Democrat.
So unless we are talking 3-5% leads........
Savvy move, even though I think it stinks.
Win the Senate (WITH McConnell losing) and then strong-arm some Dems, then Impeach.
I GOP takeover WITH McConnell losing, I think, HELPS the strong-arming effort.
Yeah, right. With our current corrupt voting system, I’ll wait to see what President Romney has to say ...
Good. Then we can afford to knock of Cochran by not showing up.
I hate to be a wet blanket, but I’ll believe it when I see it, my gut still tells me the GOPe will find a way to screw this up or that the mass wave of illegals will guarantee permanent Democratic control.
I see AK as a must-win for the GOP, given the way the Dems won the seat last time.
I want Begich destroyed. As an example to others.
No way I’m believing polls of today. Most of the dolts in this country aren’t even paying attention to politics. So, come November, people will vote for the name they remember of who their friend said who to vote for.
Nunn never had a chance. Georgians are not going to elect any more leftests until the Mexican stampede wipes us off the map.
RCP just moved a “Leans Dem” in MI to a “toss up”.
As of now:
R - 46
D - 45
Tossup - 9
I don’t think 3% to 5% lead is enough, Sharron Engle had a 6% lead over Harry Reid right up to election day. The democrats are just too good at fraud.
I could have sworn last week the NY Slimes wrote an article stating there was no GOP momentum. This is a bad poll for democrats as I am sure they are oversampled.
Landmark Communications, which has done polling and business surveys in Georgia for 20 years, published a political poll the same day as CBS News.
Landmark says the Democrat, Nunn, leads the Republican, Perdue, by +4, which is consistent with all the polling done for the last six months.
If the Democrats can get Black voters (31%) to the polls in 2014, they can win that election.
I am also skeptical about the CBS poll in Michigan.
There have been 5 polls done there in the last month.
In four of them, the Democrat is between +3 and +9 over the Republican.
Finally, the author makes a serious error of omission about the Alaska election.
He says the Democrat is just up +2.
But, there are two Republican candidates who will face off in a primary in 3 weeks.
The Democrat is +12 against the Republican who is expected to win the primary.
Surely more Republican senators would flip to Democrat if the Republicans actually gained the majority.
It pays well and the media love you forever.
The GOP has shown how to be utterly stupid. They have the issues; the crappy Obamaeconomy, no jobs, repealing Obamacare, and poor job performance in a multitude of areas. The GOP could then do something foolish like craft an amnesty bill or something else for the subject to be changed in November.
And Romney is gonna win in a landslide.
Get back to me the day after Election day.
According to your link, the “RCP Ranking” still says “Leans Dem.”
Which makes sense.
5 Michigan polls this month.
The Democrat won 4 of them.
If history is any guide, this November does bode well for the Dems. Midterm elections generally favor the Party out of power. This is especially pronounced in the 6th year of an incumbent administration. Consider the following:
In 1958 (6th year of the Eisenhower Administration) the Dems scored a massive victory in the midterm election.
In 1966 (6th year of the JFK-LBJ Administrations) the GOP scored a massive gain in the midterm election.
In 1974 (6th year of the Nixon-Ford Administrations) the Dems scored a massive victory in the midterm election.
In 1986 (6th year of the Reagan Administration) the Dems scored a massive victory in the midterm election taking back the US Senate.
1998 (6th year of the Clinton Administration) the GOP did not score such a major gain, but that’s because they had already done so in 1994 and they held on to their gains throughout the last six years of the Clinton Administration.
In 2006 (6th year of the Bush Administration) the Dems scored massive gains in the midterm election taking both the House and the US Senate.
Polls fluctuate all the time, but historic patterns remain relatively constant. The Dems have good reason to be sweating.
Sounds like a total rejection of obammy and his agenda.
A rational thoughtful person would change his agenda.
But this ass clown who is in so far over his head will double down.
We will in time recover from this moron and he will be exposed as a fraud and by far the worst ever.
It makes no difference when the winners are Rat wanna-be, progressive traitors.
I meant to say does NOT bode well for the Dems.
I GOP takeover WITH McConnell losing, I think, HELPS the strong-arming effort.”
If the Pubbies gain control of the Senate but McConnell is defeated you will have John Cornyn as Majority Leader. You think McConnell is bad, you ain’t seen nothing yet! The first thing the Senate will do is pass a full amnesty bill and then it will only get worse after that.
What I would like to see happen is the Pubbies gain control, McConnell lose and Cruz be Majority Leader. But that will never happen.
The latest polls now show McConnell ahead.
Although McConnell is not particularly popular in KY, it is hard to believe that the voters in that state are prepared to give BHO and Harry Reid another rubber stamp. Ditto in MS and GA.
Not stupid but clever co-conspirators.
Hell, even YOU believe they'll somehow be better in OUTCOME than the Reid Democrats.
The vast majority of the Senate GOP wants the very same thing that Harry Reid wants, they just want you to see them vote for it.
Their method is obfuscation and deception and their goals are DNC all the way.
Win the Senate. Pack DC appeals court with 15 additional judges [all repub.]
Go on drilling, fracking, etc.
Keystone if still possible.
Repeal the 16th.
Make friends again with allies.
Alaska is puzzling. Why would they vote to reelect a Senator who essentially votes like Liz Warren?
While I support all of the items on your checklist, little of it will be possible until BHO has left office.
Remember, BHO still has the power of the veto. And I fully expect him to be using it often assuming the GOP takes control of both houses of Congress this Fall.
The best we can hope for is stalemate until a new POTUS is elected.
We can dream, can’t we? Need 67 votes; so, 11-14 Dems.
Impeachment requires a trial in the Senate with a 2/3 of Senators present voting to convict. That’s 67 votes if they all are present. Strong arms will likely produce 0 Democrat votes, and will never get you to 67.
Without the Senate to pass his phony initiatives, Obama will have to resort to more and more outrageous executive orders. He will be reigned in.
You think. What have we heard from Jumping Jim Jeffords lately?
I hope they can say that with EVERY Dem candidate, that a vote for the Dem Senate candidate is a vote for Obama and REID... Another state that needs to get put out is in Georgia against Nunn...
I bet Brownie pulls it out in NH.
Well, I guess that means Obama and his band of dumbshits only have 3 more months to destroy everything they can. Then it’s the GOPe’s turn to show us how feckless and stupid they can be.
The Republican primary is also puzzling.
The top GOP candidate trails Begich by 12%, but the number two trails by just 2%.
I have no idea why.
The Tea Party candidate in the primary will get about 15%, but I'm not sure which Republican he takes votes away from.
Sorry, meant to give you this link - the national map:
They consider these to be tossups:
AK: Begich (D)
AR: Pryor (D)
CO: Udall (D)
GA: Open (R)
IA: Open (D)
KY: McConnell (R)
LA: Landrieu (D)
MI: Open (D)
NC: Hagan (D)
Here they list MI as a tossup. Thanks for noticing.
America’s second Black President will never be impeached. The first one lied on camera to a Federal judge and became a media hero when he was impeached. He was also a rapist who conducted his own private war on women.
Do you grasp the narrative of victimhood and how the media plays into it? It would be a public relations disaster to impeach Obama unless he pulled out a gun and shot Michelle on public TV. Even then ...
Even if he was impeached, but not convicted, the following words have a nice ring to them in 2016:
“The Democratic nominee will have a tough road, as the previous two Democratic presidents have been impeached”.
The GOP naysayers on FR are saying that would never happen!
could the 3rd part candidate keep top voter getter under 50% and result in a January runoff?
Assuming this poll taken BEFORE Boehner’s cave on immigration issue. Perhaps it should be done again. The elites have shot their feet full of holes.
The Media would crucify us by constantly reporting that the last two Democrat Presidents were impeached by evil, racist Republicans bent on terrorizing the nation and lining their own greedy pockets ... you have heard it before and know the rest.
That said, it does have a nice ring to it. Sort of like the bells of freedom ringing.