Skip to comments.MH17 Likely shot down with guns, not missiles
Posted on 07/29/2014 9:13:26 PM PDT by aardwolf46
This has been on various news sites today, but I don't see it on FR or Drudge. Any sort of a Google search on "MH17 bullet holes" will turn up multiple versions. German investigators are claiming that the forward part of MH17 is riddled with bullet holes, apparently 30mm, which is the main armament of the Ukrainian jets which were tailing the airliner. There is zero possibility of anybody shooting down an airliner with a 30mm gun from the ground.
Typical version of the story
Looks like fragments from a warhead explosion.
Could the panels have been shot up on the ground, after the fact, to confuse the investigation?
It sounds like a pretty contaminated scene.
Wow, what denial, Putin apologists have. Ever heard of a warhead full of shrapnel?
Ask yourself this -
IF it was downed by Ukraine jets, why did Russia bar investigators, if it had nothing to hide? Why did Russia remove that SAM battery, if it had nothing to hide?
As usual, the real criminals betray themselves by their actions, just like OJ running and suicidal.
Next time, try common sense.
Investigators from multiple countries have yet to access the crime scene, yet, FR has a poster that can conduct a forensic analysis from a single jpeg image and resolve all unanswered questions.
The "spanish air traffic controller" he is referring to is known as "Carlos," and, according to the Spanish, does not actually exist. The Russians made him up out of thin air.
The Russian "radar reports" claim that the SU-25 was flying "on the same level" as the airliner, which is physically impossible, since the SU-35 cannot climb up to that height. The closest an SU-35 could get to the airliner is 3KM, and that would be directly below the airliner.
Next, the cockpick they are referring to was sawn in half and most of it pilfered by the Russkies themselves. What evidence is this guy referring to? Most of it is already gone.
Lastly, the "expert" appears to not be anyone actually there, but someone looking at a random photo, and this, while vomiting up Russian propaganda that was old several days ago. The British have already stated that the evidence from the blackbox suggests it was hit by a SAM due to explosive decompression. Bullets would not destroy an airliner like this and spread its parts for miles. Only a missile would.
It's probably best not to fall for any random BS put out by blogs.
Why was no mayday given? If a jet was taking on machinegun fire, there would be ample time to radio ATC that they were under attack and going down.
We need more commas
I also do not think a pilot would attack a jet from the side, as your window of attack is greatly diminished. You would be on the jet’s 6 and fire a burst at the engines.
Russia is not in a position to bar investigators, it’s not on their soil.
A 777 has a cruising altitude that is 10,000 ft above the SU25 maximum operating ceiling and that is with no weapons onboard.
2) What should be a typical pattern of holes if a target is hit with a missile? What is the diameter of each steel ball in the missile's payload?
However if it appears that the airplane was hit only in the cockpit area, and from two sides, it certainly creates some questions for the missile theory. Probability of one missile hitting only one small area of the airplane is already small. Probability of two missiles hitting the same area from two sides is nearly zero. Missiles do not choose cockpit (and they can't anyway.) Missiles are designed to bring something down. Cockpit may well be armored; but wings, and engines, and fuel tanks are not - they are the primary target of a missile.
How can this be tested? First, with black boxes. They have registered the pattern of failures; this tells the investigators what mechanisms were damaged, and when. Then the voice recorder may have registered presence of another aircraft, or two, in close proximity. I am not sure how TCAS looks behind the airplane, but I presume it does - and it wouldn't miss an airplane within a few hundred yards. There should have been also the sounds of the actual hit. A missile would generate a single explosion and a single, instantaneous wave of projectiles - one loud thud. An airplane's gun would be likely to create a prolonged sound, as bullets are fired one by one. Especially if two airplanes were shooting in turns.
If the airliner was intentionally shot down, targeting the cockpit would be chosen to instantly disable any radio calls and comments that the pilots could have made while falling to Earth. But even if so, the whole scenario did not unfold as intended, as the airplane fell into an area that allowed recovery of black boxes.
Agreed. Looks like shrapnel.
Strike that, 20,000 feet.
Of course they could.
"A piece of wreckage from the Malaysia Airlines jet downed over Ukraine is seen near Petropavlivka village, Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine Wednesday, July 23, 2014. Independent military analysts said Wednesday that the size, spread, shape and number of shrapnel impacts visible in an AP photograph of a piece of the wreckage all point to a missile system like the SA-11 Buk."
You're an idiot.
Red Dwarf Ping!
RIMMER: (VO) After intensive investigation, comma, of the markings on the alien pod, comma, it has become clear, comma, to me, comma, that we are dealing, comma, with a species of awesome intellect, colon.
HOLLY: Good. Perhaps they might be able to give you a hand with your punctuation.
Look Ivan, their lackeys are the ones who control the crash site.
Look at his join date, was just this June. It is known that Russia fields a “troll army” sent to infiltrate discussion forums and troll news threads. Most of the trolls though are really stupid, while some might have more education and experience at it.
The entry holes are clean enough to measure; there is no ruler in the photos, but I presume the reports are not lying. If that is so, where would rebels get a 30mm airplane gun, and how would they position it and the debris to get the required angle of entry? I'm pretty sure that you cannot hold that gun in one hand; and you can't even hang it from a crane, as it is bound to have some serious recoil.
The GSh-30-2 is carried by the Sukhoi Su-25 ground attack plane and in external gun pods. It measures 2044 × 222 × 195 mm, with a barrel length of 1500 mm and a weight of 105 kg.
But the final proof can be obtained only if the investigators can trace the same bullet, or the same pattern of bullets, through both sides of the cockpit. That would be possible only if the bullets (or the shrapnel of the missile's warhead) was shot at an intact airplane.
The BUK Missiles use a high explosive - fragmentation warhead. Probably contains steel balls.
For all we know, those pictures could be from one of the other planes that were shot down. Cargo planes.
Woah. Talk about jumping to conclusions. Let’s let the investigation complete.
But now they want us to believe that a ground attack jet probably further away than 5 or 6KM shot bullets at it, making it explode and scattering body parts and pieces of plane for miles and miles.
The guy right above him giving him $#*+ and calling him “Ivan” joined 25 days ago.
The former posts conspiracy trash from blogs that only idiots can believe, the latter correctly identifies him as "Ivan." My money is on him being a Russian troll considering his posting history too.
30mm rounds are explosive. There would not be neat little holes in the aircraft skin. There would be big giant holes. Anti-aircraft missiles have proximity triggers that cause the warhead to explode, impacting the target with shrapnel.
Hence the final level of stupidity. If this could be proven, the Russkies would have already delivered the parts instead of looting them. It was the Russkies, not the Ukrainians, who sawed the cockpit in half and destroyed most of the evidence. The obvious being so that the steel balls from a Buk would not be found, and they can make up any stories they wanted due to a lack of physical evidence.
An airplane flying at 30,000 feet can be brought down by guns?
Wow...who knew? I’ll never fly again.
I saw a news report early on which featured some guy who was a big authority on this stuff, with previous professional involvement. He started to say, it was “probably” Russian operatives who did it, then said, “Well, in fact it is a Russian operation.” Check. Think about it. Why do they need schlubs?
~The GSh-30-2 is carried by the Sukhoi Su-25 ground attack plane and in external gun pods. It measures 2044 × 222 × 195 mm, with a barrel length of 1500 mm and a weight of 105 kg.
But the final proof can be obtained only if the investigators can trace the same bullet, or the same pattern of bullets, through both sides of the cockpit. That would be possible only if the bullets (or the shrapnel of the missile’s warhead) was shot at an intact airplane.~
Su-25 has a history of downing commercial airliners back to earlier 1990s when a Muslim officer of Soviet AF went rogue, conspired with Azeri government and spent a few days interdicting Armenian air traffic.
On the other hand it’s shells are 30-mm HE and it leaves nothing similar to bullet holes on it’s target. There are anti-tank armor piercing loads as well but it doesn’t look like a round of choice to take on an aircraft.
Not to mention Ukraine still have plenty of Fulcrums and Flankers, some might be flyable, which are more suitable for a role.
Welcome to FR comrade.
As a pilot who has participated in numerous simulated dogfights I can tell you how impossible it is to line up perpendicular to the nose of a plane traveling over 500 mph.
The GSh-30-2 fires a 30x165mm round... which is also common to the following Russian ground vehicles:
BMP-2 mechanized infantry combat vehicle
BMP-3 mechanized infantry combat vehicle
BMD-2 airborne combat vehicle
BMD-3 airborne combat vehicle
BMD-4 airborne combat vehicle
BTR-80A armored personnel carrier
BTR-90 or GAZ-5923 armored personnel carrier
BTR-T heavy armored personnel carrier
BMPT ‘Tank Support Fighting Vehicle’
Among others. The 2A38 cannon in this same caliber is also fitted to the Tunguska self propelled anti-aircraft system, which is often deployed with Buk missile batteries.
Entirely possible for it to have been shot up on the ground by 30mm fire.
Since Jun 23, 2014
2. Vanity post
3. Posts a little after midnight EDT (about 8 am in Moscow)
One thing I’ve noticed over the years is how they will flood the air with alternate conspiracy theories to divert attention from the truth. People who take the bait are eventually made fools of; people who aren’t deeply engaged in the story see all the alternate stories and conclude that “the truth will never be known”.
Happened a lot during Clinton’s time, when he had a lot to hide. Happens during Obama’s time, as he has even more to hide.
Nice work Kidd
According to the Wikipedia, the SU-25 has a service ceiling of 7000m clean and 5000m loaded. It was designed to provide close air support to Soviet ground forces, not to shoot down airliners cruising at 10,000+m.
SA-11 is a blast frag warhead, around 140 lbs. off the top of my head. Those aren’t bullet holes and the only aircraft the Russians claim to have been in the area was a Frogfoot, which couldn’t catch a cruising airliner at that altitude. More smoke and mirrors to confuse the masses.
Really? Does the Kremlin know you don't think Eastern Ukraine is part of Russia? Unlike Crimea, Transnistria, Nagorno-Karrabakh, Abkhazia, South Ossetia...? Feel free to retract this post, when ITAR-TASS puts out a communiqué tomorrow ordering operatives to emphasize Russia's longstanding "ownership" of "Novorossiya"...
That the Ukrainians managed to fool the separatists into believing they shot down a civilian airliner by mistake, when, all the while, it was the Ukrainian government's well-timed air-to-air attack that did the deed? And now the separatists and their big brother to the north who supplies their toys are scrambling to escape the blame?
That's the sort of plan that only looks good in retrospect. Sane bad guys would never try it, because, a priori, the chances of something going wrong far exceed the chance you'll get away with it. Plus, I doubt the Ukrainians are actually that evil.