Skip to comments.Is Russia about to invade Ukraine?
Posted on 08/02/2014 9:34:34 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Given the pattern of the cable news cycle, you might think that events in Ukraine had pretty much ceased to be of interest were it not for the downed airliner. To be fair, Israel is the hot news of the moment and, aside from the plane investigation, there havent been that many huge developments on the Russian border. But that would clearly change if the Russians launched a serious military invasion over the border. Rick Moran wonders if recent moves by Putins forces indicate that this is just whats about to happen.
Lets put it this way: Russia appears to have the capability to invade Ukraine any time it wishes. The forces are in place, the tanks are gassed up, the only thing apparently missing is the Go code from Vladimir Putin. And that could come this weekend, next weekemd or never.
Rick is looking at the analysis of James Miller, who sees more than defensive measures on the part of the Russians.
Right now Russia is moving troops, armor, and advanced antiaircraft missiles toward the border with Ukraine. In the last 48 hours, dozens of videos have been uploaded to social-media sites that show Russian armor very close to the border, many of them confirmed to be within mere kilometers of Ukraine.
On Thursday, my team at The Interpreter definitively geolocated Russian armor only 2,000 meters (and closing) from the border and a Buk, the same type of missile that likely took down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, only a few hours from being within range of Ukraines air force. Columns of tanks, marked with the same painted numbers and flat, pale-green paint weve seen in Ukraine since (at least) June 20th, were spotted moving en masse toward a key border crossing. Some Ukrainian journalists are reporting that at least some of this armor has already crossed the border.
Is it just precautionary or is Putin really getting ready to make a move? Tough to say at this point, really, and our previous efforts at either reading Putins mind or looking into his soul havent worked out all that well. I suppose its possible, since Vlad doesnt seem to be terribly concerned with anything that Barack Obama says or does, and sanctions thus far dont seem to have spurred much action from him aside from hastening some business deals with China.
But events in the rest of the world are not static, and Putin is surely aware of that. First of all, Ukraine might not be as much of a pushover as they appeared just a few months ago. Time is reporting that their military ranks have swelled and their fighting force has become more formidable in an impressively short period of time. Also, those sanctions might become more of a pressing issue if they continue to expand, with Japan being the latest nation to look at a serious financial strike against Moscow.
Russia isnt entirely isolated yet, and some of the traditional bad actors on the world stage will continue to support them in spirit, even if they cant offer much in the way of substance. (Think Iran, Syria, North Korea and others.) But if the economic crunch is growing to the point where they really feel the pinch and a quick victory in Ukraine is no longer assured, I get the sense that Putin wont risk a black eye on a gambit that might fail.
I think they already have...
I think the real problems only start if Putin takes Ukraine. That would mean he would have to support it. Mucho Rubles, Da.
Russia can invade Finland any time it wants to.
I don’t get it. Every one knows Putin is behind what’s going on there. He could have just rolled in the Russian Army and had this done months ago. Now Ukraine has had time to mobilize. Militarily, it doesn’t make any sense to me.
Scary, but kool....
For the life of me I can’t figure out why they haven’t already.
Exactly! Invading now would invite a high casualty rate with a big chance of failure.
Ukraine is falling apart of its own volition. Putin can simply watch, eat popcorn, drink beer, and pick up any pieces he wants when the fall apart is final.
Russia had trouble with Georgia for crying out loud, although I am sure they have improved since then. I would think.
Maybe now’s the time to pick up one o’ them Ukranian mail-order brides......
Putin can wait—no rush. It will be his in a year or two.
Borscht can be Russian, Ukrainian, Polish, etc.... lots of kinds of Borscht. And they all have their brigades it seems.
Let the Poles, Hungarians, and Russians, who ran the place for hundreds of years and the Germans who first dreamed up the idea of a nation named Ukraine to cause trouble for Poland and Russia deal with it.
You’re gonna have to come up with a better term to describe them, then. “Borscht Brigade” refers to our fellow FReepers who seem to be somewhat uncomfortably close to Moscow.
That’s the ticket! Ukraine is not a “real” country. Why should anyone care if Russia pushes it around, and gobbles a piece of it now and then?
It’s not our problem but rephrase it any way that fits the mass media Barry World paradigm you preach.