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Is Russia about to invade Ukraine?
Hot Air ^ | August 2, 2014 | Jazz Shaw

Posted on 08/02/2014 9:34:34 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Given the pattern of the cable news cycle, you might think that events in Ukraine had pretty much ceased to be of interest were it not for the downed airliner. To be fair, Israel is the hot news of the moment and, aside from the plane investigation, there haven’t been that many huge developments on the Russian border. But that would clearly change if the Russians launched a serious military invasion over the border. Rick Moran wonders if recent moves by Putin’s forces indicate that this is just what’s about to happen.

Let’s put it this way: Russia appears to have the capability to invade Ukraine any time it wishes. The forces are in place, the tanks are gassed up, the only thing apparently missing is the “Go” code from Vladimir Putin. And that could come this weekend, next weekemd – or never.

Rick is looking at the analysis of James Miller, who sees more than defensive measures on the part of the Russians.

Right now Russia is moving troops, armor, and advanced antiaircraft missiles toward the border with Ukraine. In the last 48 hours, dozens of videos have been uploaded to social-media sites that show Russian armor very close to the border, many of them confirmed to be within mere kilometers of Ukraine.

On Thursday, my team at The Interpreter definitively geolocated Russian armor only 2,000 meters (and closing) from the border and a Buk, the same type of missile that likely took down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, only a few hours from being within range of Ukraine’s air force. Columns of tanks, marked with the same painted numbers and flat, pale-green paint we’ve seen in Ukraine since (at least) June 20th, were spotted moving en masse toward a key border crossing. Some Ukrainian journalists are reporting that at least some of this armor has already crossed the border.

Is it just precautionary or is Putin really getting ready to make a move? Tough to say at this point, really, and our previous efforts at either reading Putin’s mind or looking into his soul haven’t worked out all that well. I suppose it’s possible, since Vlad doesn’t seem to be terribly concerned with anything that Barack Obama says or does, and sanctions thus far don’t seem to have spurred much action from him aside from hastening some business deals with China.

But events in the rest of the world are not static, and Putin is surely aware of that. First of all, Ukraine might not be as much of a pushover as they appeared just a few months ago. Time is reporting that their military ranks have swelled and their fighting force has become more formidable in an impressively short period of time. Also, those sanctions might become more of a pressing issue if they continue to expand, with Japan being the latest nation to look at a serious financial strike against Moscow.

Russia isn’t entirely isolated yet, and some of the traditional bad actors on the world stage will continue to support them in spirit, even if they can’t offer much in the way of substance. (Think Iran, Syria, North Korea and others.) But if the economic crunch is growing to the point where they really feel the pinch and a quick victory in Ukraine is no longer assured, I get the sense that Putin won’t risk a black eye on a gambit that might fail.


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Foreign Affairs; Government; Russia
KEYWORDS: obama; putin; russia; ukraine
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What say you?
1 posted on 08/02/2014 9:34:34 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I think they already have...


2 posted on 08/02/2014 9:38:14 PM PDT by ButThreeLeftsDo (Please $upport Free Republic.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The US and EU need to stop provoking Russia.
/Borscht Brigade
3 posted on 08/02/2014 9:38:48 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I think the real problems only start if Putin takes Ukraine. That would mean he would have to support it. Mucho Rubles, Da.


4 posted on 08/02/2014 9:40:23 PM PDT by DaxtonBrown (http://www.futurnamics.com/reid.php)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
"Russia appears to have the capability to invade Ukraine any time it wishes. "

Russia can invade Finland any time it wants to.

5 posted on 08/02/2014 9:40:32 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I don’t get it. Every one knows Putin is behind what’s going on there. He could have just rolled in the Russian Army and had this done months ago. Now Ukraine has had time to mobilize. Militarily, it doesn’t make any sense to me.


6 posted on 08/02/2014 9:42:15 PM PDT by Husker24
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Yeppers! Look at the invasion roll on in!
7 posted on 08/02/2014 9:57:35 PM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (Pubbies = national collectivists; Dems = international collectivists; We need a second party!)
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To: Jack Hydrazine

Scary, but kool....


8 posted on 08/02/2014 10:01:51 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

For the life of me I can’t figure out why they haven’t already.


9 posted on 08/02/2014 10:16:09 PM PDT by ryan71 (The Partisans)
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To: Husker24

Exactly! Invading now would invite a high casualty rate with a big chance of failure.


10 posted on 08/02/2014 10:25:16 PM PDT by Golden throne
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Ukraine is falling apart of its own volition. Putin can simply watch, eat popcorn, drink beer, and pick up any pieces he wants when the fall apart is final.


11 posted on 08/02/2014 10:26:54 PM PDT by aardwolf46
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To: Golden throne

Russia had trouble with Georgia for crying out loud, although I am sure they have improved since then. I would think.


12 posted on 08/02/2014 10:27:57 PM PDT by GeronL (Vote for Conservatives not for Republicans)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Maybe now’s the time to pick up one o’ them Ukranian mail-order brides......


13 posted on 08/02/2014 10:30:40 PM PDT by uglybiker (nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-BATMAN!)
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To: uglybiker

Or two.


14 posted on 08/02/2014 10:38:20 PM PDT by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults)
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To: aardwolf46

Putin can wait—no rush. It will be his in a year or two.


15 posted on 08/02/2014 10:44:32 PM PDT by Forward the Light Brigade (Into the Jaws of H*ll Onward! Ride to the sound of the guns!)
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To: 1rudeboy

Borscht can be Russian, Ukrainian, Polish, etc.... lots of kinds of Borscht. And they all have their brigades it seems.


16 posted on 08/02/2014 10:50:31 PM PDT by DesertRhino (I was standing with a rifle, waiting for soviet paratroopers, but communists just ran for office.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
If he wanted it he'd already have taken it. Like I've said elsewhere, Putin can read a balance sheet and doesn't want the place.

Good God, thousands of Christians are being slaughtered all over the Middle East and Africa, His Majesty King Barry is funding half the rabid dogs doing the slaughtering, and people are in a panic over a country that never existed as a nation rather than a region others controlled until the 1990s and has been an absolute criminal mess ever since.

Let the Poles, Hungarians, and Russians, who ran the place for hundreds of years and the Germans who first dreamed up the idea of a nation named Ukraine to cause trouble for Poland and Russia deal with it.

17 posted on 08/02/2014 10:50:44 PM PDT by Rashputin (Jesus Christ doesn't evacuate His troops, He leads them to victory.)
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To: DesertRhino

You’re gonna have to come up with a better term to describe them, then. “Borscht Brigade” refers to our fellow FReepers who seem to be somewhat uncomfortably close to Moscow.


18 posted on 08/02/2014 11:00:12 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: Rashputin

That’s the ticket! Ukraine is not a “real” country. Why should anyone care if Russia pushes it around, and gobbles a piece of it now and then?


19 posted on 08/02/2014 11:02:17 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy

It’s not our problem but rephrase it any way that fits the mass media Barry World paradigm you preach.


20 posted on 08/02/2014 11:09:26 PM PDT by Rashputin (Jesus Christ doesn't evacuate His troops, He leads them to victory.)
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To: Rashputin

Thanks, Ivan.


21 posted on 08/02/2014 11:12:28 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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Comment #22 Removed by Moderator

To: Rashputin; Tailgunner Joe; SandwicheGuy; dforest; tcrlaf; Greetings_Puny_Humans; FreeReign; ...

Uh-oh, you’re about to be labeled a “Putinista, loudmouth Putin lover, little KGB man, pro-Russia defender, and a Putin jock-sniffer & butt boy.”


23 posted on 08/02/2014 11:15:18 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out for himself.)
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To: ButThreeLeftsDo
I think they already have...

Yup

24 posted on 08/02/2014 11:16:27 PM PDT by Cold Heat (Have you reached your breaking point yet? If not now....then when?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

He should be able to handle it on his own. No need to call in a posse.


25 posted on 08/02/2014 11:17:04 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Yeah, just don’t reply in kind, I see.


26 posted on 08/02/2014 11:17:30 PM PDT by Rashputin (Jesus Christ doesn't evacuate His troops, He leads them to victory.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Why are you pinging me to threads that I am not on, take me off this ping list you created.


27 posted on 08/02/2014 11:17:47 PM PDT by ansel12 (LEGAL immigrants, 30 million 1980-2012, continues to remake the nation's electorate for democrats)
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To: 1rudeboy

Go back and look at who I pinged.


28 posted on 08/02/2014 11:17:54 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out for himself.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I got it. You want to start a flamewar because you are feeling particularly insignificant today.


29 posted on 08/02/2014 11:18:53 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: ansel12

That’s probably the funniest thing I’ve read here this year. You stalk me all over this site but you are in a huff about this? Too funny!!


30 posted on 08/02/2014 11:18:59 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out for himself.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I have never stalked you and that is absurd, but you are actually stalking me, you are pinging me to arguments and threads that I am not even on to continue some sort of past argument or thread discussion, in other words, carrying your arguments and grudges from thread to thread, and striving to recreate them and restart them.


31 posted on 08/02/2014 11:29:56 PM PDT by ansel12 (LEGAL immigrants, 30 million 1980-2012, continues to remake the nation's electorate for democrats)
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To: ansel12

Which is EXACTLY what you’ve been doing lately. Don’t play innocent.


32 posted on 08/02/2014 11:31:40 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out for himself.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

That is a bald faced lie, I don’t try to drag you to other threads with a ping list.

This is your new stalking game, mixed with a lot of personal anger and grudges that you seem to be carrying around.


33 posted on 08/02/2014 11:35:57 PM PDT by ansel12 (LEGAL immigrants, 30 million 1980-2012, continues to remake the nation's electorate for democrats)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; SunkenCiv; Tailgunner Joe

Time to ressurect films like this;

Audience: All Air Force Personnel. Synopsis: Exposes the worldwide operation of the Sino-Soviet espionage system and shows how Communist agents used any means to obtain vital information from military personnel. Reconstructs three actual cases to demonstrate various facets of espionage techniques. Explains how agents of different nationalities probe for vulnerable areas, such as loneliness, indebtedness, fast money, sex and the sporting life. Portrays the agent as he subtly approaches, ensnares and involves his victim until it is too late for the victim to retreat. Purpose: Information on communist espionage methods.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTz1DhHcJNo


34 posted on 08/02/2014 11:37:30 PM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
This guy Gubarev in Donetsk doesn't sound like he's expecting any help from Russia since he's asking the OSCE for peacekeepers to get between them and the Ukraine Army. What do you think?
35 posted on 08/03/2014 1:46:54 AM PDT by Rashputin (Jesus Christ doesn't evacuate His troops, He leads them to victory.)
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To: Rashputin

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3188342/posts


36 posted on 08/03/2014 1:47:34 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out for himself.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It would be suicide, there would be tremendous uproar internationally. Putin would have to be suicidal to try this, think of the economic costs-what is he going to do take territory in eastern Ukraine? Overrun Kiev? If this happened Putin’s regime will collapse in months.


37 posted on 08/03/2014 3:43:42 AM PDT by Golden throne
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To: Golden throne

Putin has set the ball rolling with his insane propaganda like infants being crucified and mothers dragged behind tanks and many of the Russians believe those insane stories. Now he might not know how to stop it without looking stupid.


38 posted on 08/03/2014 3:48:23 AM PDT by Krosan
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Russia is already sending troops, and ammunition, and heavy equipment and BUKs into Ukraine.


39 posted on 08/03/2014 4:23:54 AM PDT by Uncle Chip
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To: aardwolf46

You wish, Vlad —


40 posted on 08/03/2014 4:26:52 AM PDT by Uncle Chip
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...

Thanks AdmSmith.


41 posted on 08/03/2014 9:06:16 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; Rashputin
Uh-oh, you’re about to be labeled a “Putinista, loudmouth Putin lover, little KGB man, pro-Russia defender, and a Putin jock-sniffer & butt boy.”

Are you falling for the Putinista stupidity too? The idea that Putin is concerned about Christians is just retarded. He is aiding Iran with their nuclear program, and he even has his own pet Islamic dictator in Chechnya who is establishing an Islamic state.

As for Rashputin, he is a psycopath who has told me on two occasions that he desires to round up every Muslim, regardless if they are Pro-American Kurds or Crimean Tatars, running a gas station or bombing in Iraq, and force them to live in concentration camps or, possibly, face forced conversion, regardless of any constitutional rights.

Pick your friends better

42 posted on 08/03/2014 9:20:52 AM PDT by Greetings_Puny_Humans (I mostly come out at night... mostly.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Careful, they have thin skins. You'll be called a Putinista before long.

I agree that Russia should have invaded a long time ago. Two areas of Ukraine Donetsk & Lugansk decided they didn't want to be part of the EU after the government was overthrown and declared their independence. They practically begged Russia to take them in (which I think was a mistake). But I believe people should be free to choose their own destiny.

Flame away you Euro-weenies.

43 posted on 08/03/2014 9:21:41 AM PDT by McGruff (Seems like some are more interested in protecting Ukraine's border than ours)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
And guess who started this mess. That's right our good friend John McCain tells Ukraine protesters: 'We are here to support your just cause'. This was last December before the Ukrainians overthrew their government. Some claim McCain was trying to distract Russia from supporting the Syrian government. General McCain could not be reached for comment.
44 posted on 08/03/2014 9:28:13 AM PDT by McGruff (Seems like some are more interested in protecting Ukraine's border than ours)
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To: McGruff; 2ndDivisionVet
But I believe people should be free to choose their own destiny.

If that was true, you'd stop repeating the lie that a majority of people in the East and South want to be annexed, when every poll, conducted by both local AND international pollsters, including the official Presidential election, say otherwise. The number of separatists was always a microminority and usually representing the Communist "we still love Stalin" faction of Ukraine.

Yet, you insist on repeating this lie every chance you get, no matter how many times I correct you.

45 posted on 08/03/2014 9:30:08 AM PDT by Greetings_Puny_Humans (I mostly come out at night... mostly.)
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To: McGruff; 2ndDivisionVet; All
And guess who started this mess.

That's also stupid, since you expect us to believe that McCain "started" the whole thing, when Yanukovych abolished the constitution and was conducting a campaign of repression against his opponents, including abductions and torture, but that the Ukrainians were perfectly okay with this and that, if it wasn't for eeevil John McCain, they would have happily got on their knees and licked the hand that feeds them.

The dirty little secret is that you guys are not Pro-Freedom. You're Pro-Putin, and that is why you freaks have no problem vomiting up NWO conspiracy trash, or quoting from anti-semitic articles (like you), or vomiting up stuff straight out of Russian media, and telling lies over and over again despite multiple corrections. Because you don't care about anything. You're just here to spread lies.

46 posted on 08/03/2014 9:34:42 AM PDT by Greetings_Puny_Humans (I mostly come out at night... mostly.)
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To: McGruff
And guess who started this mess. That's right our good friend John McCain tells Ukraine protesters: 'We are here to support your just cause'.

Yeah that's right. Those lethargic Ukrainians were just sitting around loving themselves some corrupt and tyrannical Yanukovich. Then along came that impotent and incontinent fossil John McCain to rouse them out of their stupor.

Unbelievable, as anybody who has been following the Putin vs Ukraine situation for the past 14 years knows.

47 posted on 08/03/2014 10:04:37 AM PDT by FreeReign
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"We moved our base camp last night and we’re now positioned literally
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patrol patrolling in their riverboats all night and all morning..."

~Jim Robinson



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48 posted on 08/03/2014 10:05:35 AM PDT by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: FreeReign

Something I just learned today.

In his inaugural address, attended by dignitaries including U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. John McCain and Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, Poroshenko promised amnesty “for those who do not have blood on their hands” and called for dialogue with “peaceful citizens” in the east.

http://news.yahoo.com/poroshenko-sworn-ukraines-president-073208251.html

Hey at least John Kerry wasn’t invited.


49 posted on 08/03/2014 10:16:22 AM PDT by McGruff (Seems like some are more interested in protecting Ukraine's border than ours)
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To: McGruff; Tailgunner Joe
promised amnesty "for those who do not have blood on their hands"

i.e. not for


50 posted on 08/03/2014 10:40:56 AM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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