Skip to comments.7/17: New Hampshire 2016 Could Be Swing State
Posted on 08/03/2014 3:30:16 PM PDT by Plummz
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is in a close contest against potential GOP rival, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul in a 2016 general election matchup in New Hampshire. Clinton has single-digit leads against New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio. She has a wider lead over Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and Texas Senator Ted Cruz. But, only against Cruz is Clinton supported by more than 50% of New Hampshire voters. Clinton does better than each of her potential opponents among independent voters. The gender gap in all of these matchups is wide.
Clinton is well liked by a majority of New Hampshire residents owing to her strong standing among women. Vice President Biden has a higher negative rating than positive score among residents in the state.
New Hampshire residents give mixed reviews to Republicans Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, and Scott Walker. The ratings for Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and Ted Cruz are all upside down with more residents viewing them negatively than positively.
The morning line for the first-in-the-nation presidential primary has Hillary Clinton the overwhelming choice of Democrats over Joe Biden. Both Clinton and Biden are popular among most Democrats in the state.
On the Republican side, there is no clear choice among the potential 2016 New Hampshire Primary electorate for their partys nominee. More than one in five GOPers are undecided, and only Rand Paul, Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush have low double-digit support. Each potential GOP contender is viewed more favorably than unfavorably by Republicans in the state. Rand Paul is the most popular among GOP voters.
New Hampshire always gets a lot of attention because of its status as the first-in-the-nation primary and 2016 will be no exception, says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. It may be a frequent stopping off point for the general election, as well.
-- Democrat Hillary Clinton is in a competitive contest against potential GOP rival Rand Paul, 46% to 43%. She has a narrow lead over Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and Marco Rubio, 47% to 42%, in each instance. Clinton does better against Scott Walker, 48% to 39%, and Ted Cruz, 51% to 38%. -- Clinton is boosted by her support among independent voters and is backed by the majority of women in each matchup. --Statewide, 53%, of residents have a favorable view of Hillary Clinton including 60% of women. 42% of state residents have an unfavorable opinion of her. Biden is viewed positively by 39% of New Hampshire residents, but 48% have a negative opinion of him. -- Residents in the state divide about how they view several of the potential GOP candidates: Marco Rubio who has a 31% positive rating and a 28% negative score; Rand Paul who receives a favorable rating of 39% and an unfavorable score of 38%; and Scott Walker, with whom voters are least familiar, is liked by 24% of residents and disliked by 23%. -- Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and Ted Cruz all have ratings that are upside down.
Dems: Clinton Strong Frontrunner
-- Hillary Clinton outpaces Joe Biden 74% to 18% among the potential New Hampshire Democratic Primary electorate for 2016. -- Most Democrats in the state, 94%, have a positive opinion of Clinton. Just 4% view her negatively. Joe Biden is also liked by most New Hampshire Democrats. 79% have a favorable view of him, and 14% have an unfavorable opinion of him.
GOP: No Pace Horse
-- 22% of the potential New Hampshire Republican Primary electorate are undecided in their preference for a 2016 GOP presidential nominee. Paul at 14%, Christie at 13%, and Bush at 10% are the only potential candidates who have double-digit support. -- The contest is no clearer when the potential Republican electorate is asked for a second choice. Rubio is the backup pick of 16%, Bush garners 13%, Christie and Paul each attract 12%, and Ryan is the second choice of 10%. -- 71% of state Republicans have a positive opinion of Rand Paul and only 15% have a negative impression of him. Although each of the potential GOP candidates are more popular than unpopular among New Hampshire Republicans, Paul has the highest favorability rating. A majority of state Republicans like Bush, 65%, Rubio, 58%, and Christie, 52%. 50% have a positive view of Cruz and Walker.
Good Lord, where was the knarf alert on this one ??
More like Marxist College.
Just another pissant libtard state trying to stay relevant . . .
NH is not a swing state Presidentially. It was a reliably GOP state from 1948 to 1988, with the lone exception of 1964. From 1992 to date it has been a reliably Democrat state, with the lone exception of 2000 (and that was accidental, since Nader took a key 4% from Gore, otherwise the state would’ve gone 51-48% for him instead of 48-47% for Dubya, as Kerry took it 50-49% in 2004). If it were to vote Republican in 2016, that would likely mean the GOP candidate wins nationally.
In this one case and one case only I think Beckel is right...”Hillary will not run”.
NH is a solid ‘Rat state.
Willard carried only 3 out of 10 NH counties. If all the Libertarian votes had gone to him, it wouldn’t have mattered. Zero carried the state with 52%, 1% more than nationally. It frankly demonstrated how weak he was in New England when he could only carry 5 counties there in total (3 in NH, 1 in CT & 1 in ME — none in his beloved Massachusetts).
Also, of the 3 counties Willard won, only 1 of them was in the Southern 6-county tier (Rockingham). The other 2 were in the central-east, in Belknap & Carroll on the ME border. Belknap was his best county, and that by a subpar 51.85% and Carroll by 230 votes.
Zero took 6 of the remaining 7 counties by fairly wide margins (with Southwestern Cheshire going 61-37% for him followed by Grafton with the same rounded margin). Hillsborough was the sole county he won by just a plurality at 49.8%.
Just as a reference, the last time the counties went Republican are as follows:
Belknap - 2012 (last Dem 2008)
Carroll - 2012 (last Dem 2008)
Cheshire - 1988
Coos - 2000
Grafton - 1988
Hillsborough - 2004
Merrimack - 1988
Rockingham - 2012 (last Dem 2008)
Strafford - 1988
Sullivan - 2000
Forget all this, Red Hampshire is forever Democrat now.
The future of the party is neither the Pauls nor the Willards.
Sen. Paul is only three points from Hillary in this one. Seems doable.
Just for info I looked up the D primary 08.
17 John Hunter-Edwards
Never pronounce anywhere “forever” locked in, because things can change. Who would’ve thought after Watergate that AL, AR, LA, MS, et al, would be solid GOP today ? Same goes for countless formerly reliable GOP areas in the ‘80s. In 1988, even with Dukakis on the ballot, Bush, Sr. carried every NH county. 16 years later, the son could only get 4 out of 10 counties.
Look at WV, which was reliably Democrat from 1932 onwards (at least with the exception of some Republicans running for reelection). In 2000, it had had quite enough. Zero lost every county there in 2012, not even when WV was a GOP state from 1896-1928 did they pull off such a feat.
Move 50,000 committed Conservatives to NH (actually, you wouldn’t even need that many) and the state would go back to the GOP. Frankly, a lot should do precisely that and take back some of these smaller states. Tennessee is so top-heavy GOP now we’ve got more than we need.
Except the Willards and McCains are the problem. The party establishment (which is more comfortable with Democrats in charge and in the White House) hammered the base over the head that it was soooo important to nominate “moderates” (sic), because only they could win.
McCain did such a fantastic job that he did something unachievable by any GOP candidate in the modern era... he failed to carry a single county in NH in 2008. Even Goldwater managed to carry Carroll County in 1964 (the most stalwart pro-GOP county remaining) and Dole in 1996, McCain blew that one.
After these two RINO Socialist ringers in ‘08 & ‘12, it’s time we got back to nominating Conservatives again. I refused to vote for Willard in ‘12 (I voted for ex-Congressman Virgil Goode as the only Conservative on the ballot for President). The party will continue to perform poorly as long as it keeps putting up unprincipled lying left-wing losers. We must put up Ted Cruz in 2016. He’s the only sane candidate left who can pull us back from the brink.
DJ, “forever” was the wrong word. How about “for the forseeable future. New Englanders are too stubborn to admit they are wrong.
How do you assess Carr v. Lamar! I say Lamar! takes it by eight points.
I think a lot of the best and brightest from New England have voted with their feet since the 1980s and headed south to more sensible states that are managed well. Of course, Maine has one of the best Governors in the nation in Paul LePage (he’s precisely the type that should be fast-tracked to the Presidency, someone born in abject poverty, up from the bootstraps, no bullcrap). Sadly, the national party establishment just wants blue-blooded Socialist ringers, the most execrable and incompetent.
As for TN, I don’t even want to jinx it by making a prediction. I’m praying for a miracle this week in blasting that senile, lying liberal RINO out of office.
Not really. I live in Tennessee. Our state voted for Willard, so I had no impact (Zero is like AIDS in our state, he won only 4 out of 95 counties).
In any event, I don’t vote for lying Socialist weasels, especially ones running as Republicans. Willard was the very worst the RINO establishment has ever put up, nothing but a ringer for Zero just as McCain was. But then I’ve spent 8 years exposing the Myth of Willard on FR warning precisely of him and his destructive leftist agenda.
Well, you’ll be very happy to know that he is indeed eligible and qualified to run. While his father was a naturalized citizen born in Cuba, his mother is an American-born citizen, and therefore bestowed citizenship upon him. Theirs was only a very brief stay in Alberta before returning to the U.S.
Cruz, being a distinguished attorney, well versed in the law, and knowing his own status, had he any legal obstacles barring a run for President, he would’ve swiftly alerted his supporters that it would be prohibited. He knows he is fully qualified and is already a de facto candidate for 2016. In any event, this has been discussed endlessly on FR, so you can look up the threads on the subject to allay your concerns about Sen. Cruz’s qualifications.
I’m very excited about him running and hope you get on board to help take this country (and the GOP) back from the corrupt left !
HA ! I'm sorry, F.A., I didn't realize you were a hostile and disgruntled Willardbot until this post lashing out with your projections. If I had, I wouldn't have bothered giving you detailed and informative posts about New Hampshire and the like, since it's a waste of my time bothering with ignorant fools and reactionary folk. I've been here almost 16 years, and I'm sure many (including myself) would find your description of me to be a hoot and a half, especially when I do thorough analysis of states and trends.
I thought you were a Tea Partier according to your page, which is a contradiction in your stance, sir. My mistake.
Be grateful I just call him Willard. The name he has earned cannot be repeated on a family-friendly website. :-)
Have a nice day !
I pinged some good FReepers. People do that on a message board. I thought they’d get a kick out of your hysterics.
Cruz, the what ? You sound like a trolling racist with some MAJOR anger issues.
It could be said for many states. My state of Tennessee was generally given credit for that, since we had lamentably gone (by pluralities) for Clinton in ‘92 and ‘96, but it was the repudiation of Gore (which he should’ve carried had he not gone full moonbat) that cost him the whole thing. It was just 10 years earlier when he ran for reelection to the Senate in 1990 he carried every single county in TN.
I would still not consider NH to be a swing state, as that was only one time in the modern era its vote mattered. It still remains at present, to the left of the overall national vote. Voting Dem 5 out of the past 6 elections tends to prove the point.
“Ted Cruz is not eligible constitutionally. He was not born in USA and both his parents were not US citizens.”
Pursuant to U.S. law at the time of Ted Cruz’s birth, the foreign-born son of a U.S. citizen and an alien was a U.S. citizen at birth (and thus a “natural-born citizent” for purposes of the constitutional qualifications for the presidency) so long as the U.S.-citizen parent had resided in the U.S. for at least 10 years, of which at least 5 years were after the age of 14 (requirements that Ted Cruz’s mother met in spades). This issue was laid to rest at FR long ago, and it is silly to bring back the “illegibility” bogeyman to mask whatever reason you may have to oppose conservative hero Ted Cruz.
You know damned well that there is a 0% chance that Ted Cruz would be declared ineligible to serve as president. So, what is your real agenda, apart from defaming longtime FReepers? It can’t possibly be pimping for that RINO Mitt Romney, who blew what should have been a slam-dunk election against an unpopular Obama.
Dole would have narrowly won it with all of the Perot (in 96 I think he took more from Dole by a very wide margin) and Browne vote.
It’s been close and in play in 3 of the last 4 elections (and will be again in 2016 unless it’s a sizeable rat win along the lines of 2008), to me that’s what “swing state” means, It’s Obama margin was only 5.58%, only slightly larger than Colorado. If it ain’t a “swing state” then it’s surely the closest state you would exclude from that moniker.
I would rate the rat the slight favorite in 2016, so yes if we win it, we’re very likely winning the election.
Florida (which was stolen, Romney won), Ohio, Virginia, gets you 266, and then we need 1 more.
Well Willard IS his name isn’t it? ;d Willard versus Barak, what a contrast.
I voted for him and would again against Hillary/Biden/O’Malley/Castro/Cuomo/Warren, but he’s a nogoodnik and subpar candidate. I sure hope he doesn’t go full Tom Dewey and runs again like Ann Coulter wants him to.
I agree with you that the paultards suck.
I was very disappointed in the White people of NH. I was sure Romney would take NH and Iowa.
We’re talking semantics here. If “swing state” means that it goes from D to R depending on who wins the election nationwide (like OH, NV and FL), then NH isn’t a “swing state,” but I think that we can call it a “battleground state.”
This is EXACTLY why we got the loser the SECOND time!
You've not learned that the lesser of the two evils is STILL evil?
"At least he's better than..." is NOT a good foundation to try to run this country.
Willard Romney is a RAT for installing gay marriage
(Romney Marriage) and RomneyCARE (ObamaCARE), not
to mention he is Mexican, a carpetbagger, and FAILED
as a governor. FAILED.
He is exceptionally good as a backstabber of conservatives
in his support of Obama.
Are you a RAT supporter?
I doubt very much that if I (and presumably millions of other people) hadn’t voted for McCain in the 2008 general election that Romney wouldn’t have been the nominee in 2012 if that’s what you’re trying to say. No electorally strong conservative even ran against him for the nomination. I doubt one would have if a few more disgruntled conservatives had voted third party (or stayed home) in 2008. Most people here FOOLISHLY supported Newt Gingrich, who is JUST AS MUCH a RINO as Mitt, with the added bonus of being a clueless and arrogant twit, Santorum (my primary vote) was the best candidate by default and that was SAD because he’s a former Senator that was ousted by 17 points.
“You’ve not learned that the lesser of the two evils is STILL evil?”
Don’t care, another term for a rat President means a high likelihood of that POS replacing Scalia or Thomas (and countless more lower court judges), that’s would be bullet to brain of America, game over. I’d take my chances with whoever is nominated on the Republican side, as for the last 2 elections, I sure as hell wasn’t gonna waste my vote on the Constitution party, which I don’t like anyway, they weren’t even on the ballot in my state, Goode got 415 write-in votes. And not being in need of any weed, an abortion, or a gay marriage, I sure as hell wasn’t gonna vote for Gary Johnson either. Both of those third party twerps were “lesser evils” too.
But to be clear, I STRONGLY support nominating a conservative, something we haven’t done since 1984. Bush Jr. I voted for as well, he sure as heck wasn’t a conservative.
What can you do, the world is a stove and the knob is not within my reach, when I’m in the fire and my feet are burning I’m gonna jump into the frying pan, you can jump where you like, I respectfully agree to disagree.
I don’t see any need to argue about this, we should be discussing nominating a conservative and helping him/her carry states like New Hampshire, not bickering over whether we’d hold our nose in a general election for Romney/Jeb/Fatboy or vote for some guy who’s gonna get less than 1% of the vote, that’s a pointless debate.
Wrong. Romney is a Trojan Horse who attacked Gov. Palin
in 2008, and gave up in 2012.
The Rat Romney is the reason Obamacare, gay marriage,
and one of the reasons bad government, and support of liars,
exist, in the first place.
Dude, putting an apostrophe in front of that word does not make it cool.
Santorum has a major flaw....... he is a loser
I agree, that’s why I said it was sad. Horrible choices. Cain was interesting, but not ready for prime time.
First Authority, you’re a 2010 sign-up. Fieldmarshalldj has been around here since 2001. His political assessments are pretty damned accurate, and his opinion is well-respected.
You started in with the vitriol at post 24, continued with Post 27.
This is a discussion forum, where you should expect people to have a different opionion than yours.
Courtesy goes a long way towards longevity around here.
Mr. Cain was attacked by the Marriott company.
Hmmmm. Who would THAT be for?
Romney is responsible for ObamaCARE and Obama.
This is some wild thread, imagine what it will be like HERE NEXT year.
Not looking it forward to it!!!!! This is bringing up some bad memories.
I’m gonna be more laid back this time around!!!
Conservatives should NOT place their faith in Red Hampshire.
I see you got scolded here for voting for Republicans, while FM was scolded for NOT voting for Republicans, LOL