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Republicans Remain Slightly Favored To Take Control Of The Senate
Five Thirty Eight ^ | August 4. 2014 | Nate Silver

Posted on 08/04/2014 11:09:42 AM PDT by shepardspie33

If Americans elected an entirely new set of senators every two years — as they elect members of the House of Representatives — this November’s Senate contest would look like a stalemate. President Obama remains unpopular; his approval ratings have ticked down a point or two over the past few months. But the Republican Party remains a poor alternative in the eyes of many voters, which means it may not be able to exploit Obama’s unpopularity as much as it otherwise might.

Generic Congressional ballot polls — probably the best indicator of the public’s overall mood toward the parties — suggest a relatively neutral partisan environment. Most of those polls show Democrats with a slight lead, but many of them are conducted among registered voters, meaning they can overstate Democrats’ standing as compared with polls of the people most likely to vote. Republicans usually have a turnout advantage, especially in midterm years, and their voters appear to be more enthusiastic about this November’s elections. Still, the gap is not as wide as it was in 2010.

The problem for Democrats is that this year’s Senate races aren’t being fought in neutral territory. Instead, the Class II senators on the ballot this year come from states that gave Obama an average of just 46 percent of the vote in 2012.1

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2014midterms; elections; midterms; politics; senate

1 posted on 08/04/2014 11:09:42 AM PDT by shepardspie33
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To: shepardspie33

The GOP doesn’t want that kind of responsibility. They will blow it and fall short.


2 posted on 08/04/2014 11:12:02 AM PDT by brownsfan (Behold, the power of government cheese.)
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To: brownsfan

Or if we get it Mitch will just sit onthe power and try to push crap like amnesty through anyway...


3 posted on 08/04/2014 11:12:59 AM PDT by GraceG (No, My Initials are not A.B.)
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To: shepardspie33

For what its worth, these same polls had the democrats ahead about 4 points going into the 2010 midterms and we know how they turned out. The fact of the matter is midterms are all about turnout, not public opinion, and recently Republican have been much better at getting their voters out in midterms.


4 posted on 08/04/2014 11:13:14 AM PDT by apillar
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To: shepardspie33

I think the above chart is fairly accurate.

I think, however, that Joni Ernst in IA has at least a 50/50 shot at winning.


5 posted on 08/04/2014 11:14:23 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: shepardspie33

Woo frickin’ hoo.


6 posted on 08/04/2014 11:14:46 AM PDT by Yo-Yo (Is the /sarc tag really necessary?)
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To: shepardspie33

Libs, please do not worry.

We repulsicans have a doctorate in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Hint - we’re considering RINOmney again.


7 posted on 08/04/2014 11:18:32 AM PDT by Da Coyote
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To: shepardspie33

If the GOP win the Senate , their First announcement will be Power Sharing with the Demonuts ,just like the last time


8 posted on 08/04/2014 11:19:05 AM PDT by molson209 (Blank)
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To: brownsfan

Of the GOP DOESN’T blow it, they’ll gain a net of +4.


9 posted on 08/04/2014 11:19:25 AM PDT by ScottinVA (If it doesn't include border security, it isn't "reform." It's called "amnesty.")
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To: brownsfan

No way they are going to win, the crap this POTUS does you would THINK would be an absolute Jackpot in terms of opportunity, but no they just let one opportunity after another slide by. The whole Republican party is BRAIN DEAD.

Like one example I was mentioning last week, all the illegals coming in and Obama wanting to blow $3.5 BILLION on them. Why aren’t Repubs taking every freakin’ advantage of that in the inner city black communities?? Look at this video....This was posted last week. HELLO!

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jul/14/obama-slammed-worst-president-ever-black-chicagoan/

All Repubs would have to do is gain a small percentage of the black vote and the Democraps would never win another election. But noooo, they just sit on their ass and go DUUUH!


10 posted on 08/04/2014 11:23:56 AM PDT by GrandJediMasterYoda (Hitlery: Incarnation of evil.)
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To: GrandJediMasterYoda
we had best get busy before Obamas lil dance obliterates what remains of the Constitution.


11 posted on 08/04/2014 11:25:55 AM PDT by MeshugeMikey ( "Never, never, never give up". Winston Churchill ...)
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To: GrandJediMasterYoda

“All Repubs would have to do is gain a small percentage of the black vote and the Democraps would never win another election. But noooo, they just sit on their ass and go DUUUH!”

When things don’t make sense, and politicians seem exceedingly dumb about something, follow the money. The Chamber of Commerce is writing the checks, and dictating the response.


12 posted on 08/04/2014 11:27:31 AM PDT by brownsfan (Behold, the power of government cheese.)
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To: GraceG

If the GOP wins the Senate, I hope that the House and Senate work together to fight Obama.

For example, have both House and Senate pass a bill to repeal obamacare. Force Obama to veto it.

Pass other bills to change just some aspects of obamacare. Force Obama to veto that.

Pass bills to regulate the EPA and override the pending regulations which will force coal fired power plants to close. Put Obama in the position of having to veto that.

Pass bills which will allow for certain tax cuts to stimulate the economy. Pass some version of tax simplification. Pass bills and then force Obama into the position of vetoing and explaining to the American people why he opposes such bills.


13 posted on 08/04/2014 11:28:26 AM PDT by Dilbert San Diego (s)
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To: brownsfan

Leave it to the GOP to cast victory into the jaws of defeat.


14 posted on 08/04/2014 11:33:08 AM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (The cure has become worse than the disease. Support an end to the WOD now.)
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To: shepardspie33
Ah, yes, the media dorks are calling this like a horse race and it will be too close to call. Already the gap is narrowing. One thing you can bet is the Stupid Party is gearing up to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory — as they always do. If, for some inexplicable reason, they do win both the House and Senate, count on the usual cringing, gutless, pandering the old RINOs call leadership.
15 posted on 08/04/2014 11:39:02 AM PDT by MasterGunner01
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To: Dilbert San Diego

[ If the GOP wins the Senate, I hope that the House and Senate work together to fight Obama.

For example, have both House and Senate pass a bill to repeal obamacare. Force Obama to veto it.

Pass other bills to change just some aspects of obamacare. Force Obama to veto that.

Pass bills to regulate the EPA and override the pending regulations which will force coal fired power plants to close. Put Obama in the position of having to veto that.

Pass bills which will allow for certain tax cuts to stimulate the economy. Pass some version of tax simplification. Pass bills and then force Obama into the position of vetoing and explaining to the American people why he opposes such bills. ]

IF the Tea Party wins the Senate....

IF the GOP-E wins the senate it will be more of the same crap just slightly SLOWER....


16 posted on 08/04/2014 11:39:24 AM PDT by GraceG (No, My Initials are not A.B.)
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To: brownsfan

Yep.


17 posted on 08/04/2014 11:41:40 AM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: Da Coyote

Exactly. It’s like the NFL Lions when they look like a sure thing to get into the Playoffs. The rest of the NFL North can relax. They’ll blow it. They are already on the way with some of their Primary garbage.


18 posted on 08/04/2014 11:42:56 AM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: Da Coyote

Hint - many Freepers are planning on voting for a Democrat


19 posted on 08/04/2014 11:43:40 AM PDT by centurion316
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To: shepardspie33

Useless corporatist RINOs. It should be a rout.


20 posted on 08/04/2014 11:45:30 AM PDT by headstamp 2
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To: brownsfan
"The GOP doesn’t want that kind of responsibility. They will blow it and fall short."

They had a majority a decade ago and blew it. A Tea Party majority is now the goal for patriotic Americans.

21 posted on 08/04/2014 11:45:39 AM PDT by Carl Vehse
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

“I think, however, that Joni Ernst in IA has at least a 50/50 shot at winning.”

I would give her 60/40 or 70/30 odds of winning.

Her ‘make em squeal’ ad was pure genius.


22 posted on 08/04/2014 11:52:46 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Unions are an Affirmative Action program for Slackers! .)
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To: shepardspie33

Slightly. That’s reassuring......


23 posted on 08/04/2014 12:04:33 PM PDT by b4its2late (A Progressive is a person who will give away everything he doesn't own.)
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To: GraceG

If GOP wins the Senate, it will be the GOP-e calling the shots in both houses for two whole years.

The GOPe will simply bed down with Obama, passing A LOT of “compromise” bills that quietly but quickly pass things that will make conservatives squeel in pain.

Everything globalists/statists want, just in a slightly watered-down form.

Because both House and Senate will have a few conservative Repubs who vote “NO”.

But they will EASILY work with Democrats to get enough votes to pass things.

Right now, the Senate is controlled by Democrats - and to save face with Democrat voters - they can NOT pass bi-partisan bills that “give in” on Democrat/liberal/leftist agendas. Democrat voters think - how dare you pass a “Republican” bill !

Harry Reid just DUMPS the House bills basically in the trash, unless they cover only the standard Washington insider spending, etc.

If the Senate was Repub, the GOPe would have plenty of seats to make their Senate leader a GOPe guy. Tea Party will be eating at the kids table, while the GOPe and Democrats sit down to feast at the government trough.

A GOPe Senate leader would not be embarassed at all to pass a bill that passed a Republican House. He’d smile and say “we are passing bi-partisan bills”! :)

As long as the House and Senate pass bi-partisan bills - Reggie Love’s boyfriend will sign them as fast as he can give two snaps of his finger !


24 posted on 08/04/2014 12:07:18 PM PDT by PieterCasparzen (We have to fix things ourselves)
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To: shepardspie33

Based on the big thread yesterday it seems like this would be bad news. If we win the Senate then the GOPe will not get their dearly needed lesson.

Personally, I’m willing to pass on the lesson in order to win the Senate. A few more conservative Senators along with (in all probability) our disgusting Senator from Mississippi, and the rest of the GOPe contingent still beats Harry Reid as Majority Leader.

But that just might be the minority position here in good old FreeperLand.


25 posted on 08/04/2014 12:11:09 PM PDT by InterceptPoint (Remember Mississippi)
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To: Carl Vehse

They had a majority a decade ago and blew it. A Tea Party majority is now the goal for patriotic Americans.
++++
Yes. And double yes. But that will take time and the Obsma led Demographic trends are not in our favor. Republican women: you need to start having more babies. At least 4.


26 posted on 08/04/2014 12:15:01 PM PDT by InterceptPoint (Remember Mississippi)
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To: InterceptPoint
A few more conservative Senators along with (in all probability) our disgusting Senator from Mississippi,

Wasn't there supposed to be some news today from the McDaniel camp regarding fradulent votes and the possible next steps?

27 posted on 08/04/2014 12:16:14 PM PDT by bassmaner (Hey commies: I am a white male, and I am guilty of NOTHING! Sell your 'white guilt' elsewhere.)
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To: shepardspie33

While we can do our part and vote, what good will it do? All the elected republicans will do is seek power and money for themselves. No one wants to represent us and save the republic.


28 posted on 08/04/2014 12:19:38 PM PDT by Yaelle
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To: PieterCasparzen

You position is perhaps the majority opinion here on FR. That surprises me but it does seem to be the case.

Question for you: Are you hoping that the Dems retain control of the Senate?

Are you planning to vote in November?


29 posted on 08/04/2014 12:21:15 PM PDT by InterceptPoint (Remember Mississippi)
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To: bassmaner

Wasn’t there supposed to be some news today from the McDaniel camp regarding fradulent votes and the possible next steps?
++++
Yes. But I’m starting to wonder if is really is going to happen.


30 posted on 08/04/2014 12:23:35 PM PDT by InterceptPoint (Remember Mississippi)
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To: Beagle8U

I would also give the GOP a better than 5% chance in MN where the current incumbent “won” his seat by way of a fraudulent recount.


31 posted on 08/04/2014 12:24:57 PM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: molson209
If the GOP win the Senate, their First announcement will be Power Sharing with the Demonuts, just like the last time.

Yes, that's probably an accurate call. It's a pity that there's no way for us to stop that sort of behavior, short of drenching the capital in blood.

32 posted on 08/04/2014 12:29:24 PM PDT by Charles Martel (Endeavor to persevere...)
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

The polls have Land ahead in MI too.


33 posted on 08/04/2014 12:35:11 PM PDT by Beagle8U (Unions are an Affirmative Action program for Slackers! .)
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To: Beagle8U

That could flip too.

One thing I have observed. Midterm elections are very different from presidential elections. Even in blue states like MN, IA, WI (and others) which usually vote Dem in presidential elections, often vote GOP in the midterm elections.

Generally speaking in midterm elections, the electorate is smaller, older, whiter, more conservative, more dedicated, and therefore more Republican than is the case in presidential elections.

Moreover midterm elections tend to benefit the Party out of power, and this tends to be even more pronounced in the sixth year of an administration.


34 posted on 08/04/2014 12:54:41 PM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: InterceptPoint
"Republican women: you need to start having more babies. At least 4."

The Demonicrats have rigged the system so that it is difficult for middle class families to have more than 2 kids. Many Republican families who want to live and have children at or above middle class level have to have both spouses working unless one spouse has an upper middle class job so they can live on one salary as an average middle class family (and send their kids to a decent college or university). Families with four or more kids are more likely to be the entitlement moms and their welfare-producing spawn.

35 posted on 08/04/2014 1:34:03 PM PDT by Carl Vehse
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To: shepardspie33

I’m not holding my breath.


36 posted on 08/04/2014 2:47:14 PM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose o f a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: InterceptPoint
You position is perhaps the majority opinion here on FR. That surprises me but it does seem to be the case.

Question for you: Are you hoping that the Dems retain control of the Senate?

Are you planning to vote in November?


Yes, the Dems better retain control of the Senate. That's the only way conservatives get mad and public opinion "wakes up" and thrashes Congress daily.

Jeff Bell is the pubbie for Senate from NJ, versus Booker. They're both establishment, Bell's a Columbia/neocon running on a goldbug platform for the elites, Booker as Obama-lite for the elites. Any time a local businessman who is not working directly for the elites runs as a Repub the elites rip him out in the primary. The Dems, of course, always have an elite minion masquerading as a "man of the people".

I'll have to see how it looks like it's shaking out before I decide. A young guy like Booker could be there for decades and hard to get out.
37 posted on 08/04/2014 3:17:15 PM PDT by PieterCasparzen (We have to fix things ourselves)
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To: PieterCasparzen

I’ll have to see how it looks like it’s shaking out before I decide. A young guy like Booker could be there for decades and hard to get out.
++++
Indeed. But isn’t that the essence of the problem with a strategy based on electing more Democrats to the Senate? You are creating more incumbant Dems whose vote is guaranteed to be against your best interests.

I understand that the same can be said of the dopey GOPe types but we can defeat them in the primaries if we have the will and the resources.

In any case this is going to be a fun election cycle. Maybe 2010 redux. Probably not. But maybe.


38 posted on 08/04/2014 3:28:52 PM PDT by InterceptPoint (Remember Mississippi)
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To: InterceptPoint

No, practically impossible to primary an incumbent.

And the establishment repubs vote against all my issues.

That’s why I’ll vote for Garrett in House, cuz he very often votes the way I would.

That’s why I’m leaning towards voting for Booker.

When Repubs finally get a real independent candidate for Senate, he can easily get elected; Jersey would love a REAL guy in the Senate.

We in NJ need to promote old-school values and show the evil of unions - elites connection. long term project.


39 posted on 08/04/2014 4:44:40 PM PDT by PieterCasparzen (We have to fix things ourselves)
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