Skip to comments.Nate Silver warns the political class that it could still be a GOP wave year
Posted on 08/04/2014 12:03:44 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Public opinion polls, as they say, are a snapshot in time. And a glance at the polls today suggests that the 2014 midterm elections are shaping up to be good for Republicans, but a landslide does not appear to be in the offing.
As of this writing, Real Clear Politics puts nine of this years 19 even competitive Senate races in the tossup column. Many of those races poll so tightly that it's impossible to make an accurate prediction about how they will shape up but, as RCP notes, the GOP is set today to pick up six net seats for a slim 51-49 majority in the 114th Congress.
The New York Times election modeling feature The Upshot comes to a similar conclusion. As of today, the Republican Party has a 53 percent chance of taking control of the upper chamber of Congress. [T]hat doesnt mean were predicting the Republicans to win the Senate, The Upshot clarified, the probability is essentially the same as a coin flip.
Of those same nine tossup races, The Times only gives Republican candidates better than even odds of winning four of them. With two of those races, Kentucky and Georgia, representing holds for the Senate’s minority party, and with three pickup opportunities for the GOP in Montana, West Virginia, and South Dakota now appearing to be Republican locks, this would also leave the GOP with a one-seat majority.
The consensus opinion is clear: A good Republican year, but no tsunami.
But FiveThirtyEight statistics analyst Nate Silver has some advice for elections analysts that cuts against the grain. He noted on Monday that the polls do not show a Republican wave is forming, and it is clear that the GOP can still retake the Senate even in a waves absence.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
If only the Republicans cared about their base, it COULD be tsunami.
I was going to ask, “Even with the GOP doing their best to kill the wave?”
I don’t think so. The Dim base is also large and more highly motivated than usual. Quite frankly, I think we are only going to see some movement around the edges. What worries me is 2016.
As the election gets closer, watch as they keep moving the goal posts for what would qualify as a Republican landslide.
"Republicans picked up 11 seats in the Senate yesterday, falling far short of the 16 they needed to pick up to qualify as a landslide."
I honestly think that the Republican leadership is in sheer panic at the thought of winning both Chambers...That means that everything between 2014 and 2016 is on them no matter what Obama does before the end of his term...
They have left out Obama’s coming amnesty in the calculations. Add in someone slipping over the Southern border with Ebola and shazzam!
Selective reporting, methinks...
In the FWIW department (and, with the exit of Scott, perhaps not much), this week’s generic Rasmussen is R+4, almost a complete reversal from a week ago.
Anyways, worth noting, as instead of making stuff up, this week touts data they don’t editorially agree with.
No wave. But GOP easily takes Senate.
GA and KY are holds despite media spin. No way a Dem wins in these red states where Obozo has a 20% approval.
GOP guaranteed MT, WV, and SD. That’s +3.
Then all the red state fraud Dems are goners - Landrieu, Pryor, Begich, Hagan. That’s 4 more. So +7.
50/50 shots in Iowa and Colorado. +8 or +9.
Wave would have placed Minn, NH, VA, MI, OR etc in play. But no dice.
2014 August Recess Town Hall Map lists 139 Republicans holding town hall meetings and 47 Democrats.
LINK TO TOWNHALLS http://patriotaction.net/forum/topics/august-recess-congressional-town-hall-meetings-list
READY SET GO, PATRIOTS every townhall forum,
every blog, Facebook page, twitter, needs to focus on Immigration. ==============================================
Mmmmmmm......I can't wait to hear Dummycrats explain
to voters why they oppose the Republican border plan.
I’m gonna tell you one thing, kid...Ebola
IF the GOPe gets 51 seats, WHICH RINO will they get to flip to “independent” and caucus with the Dems to keep Harry Reid as Majority Leader?
In the 19 competitive states, Obama’s average approval rating is about 42%...nuff said..
Murkowski, Collins, McCain...
The Jumpin' Jim Jeffords contingency.
This can be seen as the media hedging it’s bets. They know the GOP will gain seats, they think the GOP may get a majority, but they peg it as a slight one so they don’t lose face if either the GOP wins big, or the Dems win narrowly.
The real polls are being conducted by the WH’s and Dem’s in house pollsters. We’re seeing the reaction to those in the panicked cries about impeachment, etc. I’m guessing the GOP (unless they completely blow it) gets to 53 or 54 seats. 56 (net gain of 11) is actually a decent, if stretch, prospect.
If the GOP can’t make material gains in 14, 2016 is going to be an epic disaster.
Mark Kirk, Mitch McConnell (especially if he’s voted out of the Majority Leader position), or Susan Collins.
No wave — unless you stick to counting just the votes from living citizens.
But — with voter-fraud of Chicago-land proportions — the zombies may tip the “majority” their way.
Demand a “recount” from the “winners”?
Demand the Attorney General investigate and disqualify votes from dead people?
Disqualify all but one “absentee ballot” from registered voters.
Don’t get cocky!
put the PROPORTIONS
They'll probably win five, but lose McConnell's seat in KY. Call it +4.
If McCain were to go, Lindsay Graham would shortly follow.
This election will show the state of the people minds. I predict the GOP will do well, but only that. Which implies that the state of the people minds is still being clouded.
Being clouded by who and why is the real question.
Gonna tell you another thing, kid. STINGRAY. The program your local cops have been using those new Explorers to vacuum up your cell phone records.
Pretty sure Snowden will release this in October.
Hard to have a “wave” when you have no unifying theme to nationalize the election. Oh no, to do that would be to anger the independents or be called racist or some such nonsense. Instead, the GOPe is employing the same “run out the clock and win by default” strategy they employed in 2012.
polls do not show a Republican wave is forming
That proves the utter failure of the GOP to effectively engage a POTUS worse than Carter.
They need to grab 11 seats. A slim 1 vote majority just makes these dopes victims. What will they accomplish? I like that they get committees under their control, but they’re just caretakers until 2016 and a new POTUS. You have to have some depth to keep control.
2016 has 23 GOP Senators up for reelection and only 10 Democrats.
SENATORS UP FOR REELECTION IN 2016
Michael Bennet (Colorado)
Richard Blumenthal (Connecticut)
Barbara Boxer (California)
Patrick Leahy (Vermont)
Joe Manchin (West Virginia)
Barbara Mikulski (Maryland)
Patty Murray (Washington)
Harry Reid (Nevada)
Charles Schumer (New York)
Ron Wyden (Oregon)
Kelly Ayotte (New Hampshire)
Roy Blunt (Missouri)
John Boozman (Arkansas)
Richard Burr (North Carolina)
Dan Coats (Indiana)
Tom Coburn (Oklahoma) Retiring in 2014. Seat TBD in 2014 special election.
Mike Crapo (Idaho)
Chuck Grassley (Iowa)
John Hoeven (North Dakota)
Johnny Isakson (Georgia)
Ron Johnson (Wisconsin)
Mark Kirk (Illinois)
Mike Lee (Utah)
John McCain (Arizona)
Jerry Moran (Kansas)
Lisa Murkowski (Alaska)
Rand Paul (Kentucky)
Rob Portman (Ohio)
Marco Rubio (Florida)
Richard Shelby (Alabama)
John Thune (South Dakota)
Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania)
David Vitter (Louisiana)
Hawaii, Oklahoma and South Carolina each have one Senate seat TBD in 2014 Special Election. Winner of 2014 special election will be up for re-election in 2016.