Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Nate Silver warns the political class that it could still be a GOP wave year
Hotair ^ | 08/04/2014 | Noah Rothman

Posted on 08/04/2014 12:03:44 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

Public opinion polls, as they say, are a snapshot in time. And a glance at the polls today suggests that the 2014 midterm elections are shaping up to be good for Republicans, but a landslide does not appear to be in the offing.

As of this writing, Real Clear Politics puts nine of this year’s 19 even competitive Senate races in the tossup column. Many of those races poll so tightly that it's impossible to make an accurate prediction about how they will shape up but, as RCP notes, the GOP is set today to pick up six net seats for a slim 51-49 majority in the 114th Congress.

The New York Times election modeling feature The Upshot comes to a similar conclusion. As of today, the Republican Party has a 53 percent chance of taking control of the upper chamber of Congress. “[T]hat doesn’t mean we’re predicting the Republicans to win the Senate,” The Upshot clarified, “the probability is essentially the same as a coin flip.”

Of those same nine tossup races, The Times only gives Republican candidates better than even odds of winning four of them. With two of those races, Kentucky and Georgia, representing holds for the Senate’s minority party, and with three pickup opportunities for the GOP in Montana, West Virginia, and South Dakota now appearing to be Republican locks, this would also leave the GOP with a one-seat majority.

The consensus opinion is clear: A good Republican year, but no tsunami.

But FiveThirtyEight statistics analyst Nate Silver has some advice for elections analysts that cuts against the grain. He noted on Monday that the polls do not show a Republican “wave” is forming, and it is clear that the GOP can still retake the Senate even in a “wave’s” absence.

(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2014; 2014midterms; elections; gop; midterm

1 posted on 08/04/2014 12:03:44 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

If only the Republicans cared about their base, it COULD be tsunami.


2 posted on 08/04/2014 12:09:27 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper

I was going to ask, “Even with the GOP doing their best to kill the wave?”


3 posted on 08/04/2014 12:12:03 PM PDT by Ingtar (The NSA - "We're the only part of government who actually listens to the people.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper

I don’t think so. The Dim base is also large and more highly motivated than usual. Quite frankly, I think we are only going to see some movement around the edges. What worries me is 2016.


4 posted on 08/04/2014 12:13:30 PM PDT by RIghtwardHo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
So a six-seat pickup and a flip of control will not be a landslide victory for the Republicans.

As the election gets closer, watch as they keep moving the goal posts for what would qualify as a Republican landslide.

"Republicans picked up 11 seats in the Senate yesterday, falling far short of the 16 they needed to pick up to qualify as a landslide."

5 posted on 08/04/2014 12:16:20 PM PDT by dead (I've got my eye out for Mullah Omar.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All

I honestly think that the Republican leadership is in sheer panic at the thought of winning both Chambers...That means that everything between 2014 and 2016 is on them no matter what Obama does before the end of his term...


6 posted on 08/04/2014 12:24:02 PM PDT by Maringa
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]


Click The Pic To Donate

Support FR, Donate Monthly If You Can

7 posted on 08/04/2014 12:24:36 PM PDT by DJ MacWoW (The Fed Gov is not one ring to rule them all)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

They have left out Obama’s coming amnesty in the calculations. Add in someone slipping over the Southern border with Ebola and shazzam!


8 posted on 08/04/2014 12:24:45 PM PDT by DaxtonBrown (http://www.futurnamics.com/reid.php)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dead

Selective reporting, methinks...


9 posted on 08/04/2014 12:25:02 PM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks (Rip it out by the roots.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

In the FWIW department (and, with the exit of Scott, perhaps not much), this week’s generic Rasmussen is R+4, almost a complete reversal from a week ago.

Anyways, worth noting, as instead of making stuff up, this week touts data they don’t editorially agree with.


10 posted on 08/04/2014 12:26:52 PM PDT by C210N (When people fear government there is tyranny; when government fears people there is liberty)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

No wave. But GOP easily takes Senate.

GA and KY are holds despite media spin. No way a Dem wins in these red states where Obozo has a 20% approval.

GOP guaranteed MT, WV, and SD. That’s +3.

Then all the red state fraud Dems are goners - Landrieu, Pryor, Begich, Hagan. That’s 4 more. So +7.

50/50 shots in Iowa and Colorado. +8 or +9.

Wave would have placed Minn, NH, VA, MI, OR etc in play. But no dice.


11 posted on 08/04/2014 12:26:57 PM PDT by nhwingut (This tagline for lease)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All
Dummycrats are still smarting over the whomping they got at Obamacare townhalls. Seems Dummycrats aren't interested in facing their constituents over immigration.

2014 August Recess Town Hall Map lists 139 Republicans holding town hall meetings and 47 Democrats.

LINK TO TOWNHALLS http://patriotaction.net/forum/topics/august-recess-congressional-town-hall-meetings-list

READY SET GO, PATRIOTS every townhall forum,
every blog, Facebook page, twitter, needs to focus on Immigration. ==============================================

Mmmmmmm......I can't wait to hear Dummycrats explain
to voters why they oppose the Republican border plan.


12 posted on 08/04/2014 12:30:52 PM PDT by Liz
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

I’m gonna tell you one thing, kid...Ebola


13 posted on 08/04/2014 12:35:38 PM PDT by Yollopoliuhqui
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Yollopoliuhqui

"Ebola ?"

14 posted on 08/04/2014 12:38:15 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

IF the GOPe gets 51 seats, WHICH RINO will they get to flip to “independent” and caucus with the Dems to keep Harry Reid as Majority Leader?


15 posted on 08/04/2014 12:38:58 PM PDT by Buckeye Battle Cry (Hey Obama! Wake up and piss! The World's on FIRE!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

In the 19 competitive states, Obama’s average approval rating is about 42%...nuff said..


16 posted on 08/04/2014 12:42:31 PM PDT by ken5050 ("One useless man is a shame, two are a law firm, three or more are a Congress".. John Adams)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Buckeye Battle Cry

Murkowski, Collins, McCain...


17 posted on 08/04/2014 12:42:57 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Buckeye Battle Cry
IF the GOPe gets 51 seats, WHICH RINO will they get to flip to “independent” and caucus with the Dems to keep Harry Reid as Majority Leader?

The Jumpin' Jim Jeffords contingency.

18 posted on 08/04/2014 12:47:43 PM PDT by VRW Conspirator (The next DNC convention will be spoken in Spanish; Press 1 for English)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: RIghtwardHo

This can be seen as the media hedging it’s bets. They know the GOP will gain seats, they think the GOP may get a majority, but they peg it as a slight one so they don’t lose face if either the GOP wins big, or the Dems win narrowly.

The real polls are being conducted by the WH’s and Dem’s in house pollsters. We’re seeing the reaction to those in the panicked cries about impeachment, etc. I’m guessing the GOP (unless they completely blow it) gets to 53 or 54 seats. 56 (net gain of 11) is actually a decent, if stretch, prospect.


19 posted on 08/04/2014 12:57:45 PM PDT by tanknetter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: VRW Conspirator; All
IF the GOPe gets 51 seats, WHICH RINO will they get to flip to “independent”
and caucus with the Dems to keep Harry Reid as Majority Leader?
I WOULDN'T discount, Mitch "the *itch" McConnell (Wdc-GOP/E)...
btw; he's MY senator and he's slimy as they come..

20 posted on 08/04/2014 12:58:04 PM PDT by skinkinthegrass (The end move in politics is always to pick up a weapon...0'Mullah / "Rustler" 0'Reid? d8-)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: RIghtwardHo

If the GOP can’t make material gains in 14, 2016 is going to be an epic disaster.


21 posted on 08/04/2014 1:00:28 PM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
The GOP tsunami.


22 posted on 08/04/2014 1:08:01 PM PDT by ScottinVA (If it doesn't include border security, it isn't "reform." It's called "amnesty.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: skinkinthegrass

Mark Kirk, Mitch McConnell (especially if he’s voted out of the Majority Leader position), or Susan Collins.


23 posted on 08/04/2014 1:09:51 PM PDT by ScottinVA (If it doesn't include border security, it isn't "reform." It's called "amnesty.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut

No wave — unless you stick to counting just the votes from living citizens.

But — with voter-fraud of Chicago-land proportions — the zombies may tip the “majority” their way.

Then what?

Demand a “recount” from the “winners”?

Demand the Attorney General investigate and disqualify votes from dead people?

Disqualify all but one “absentee ballot” from registered voters.

Don’t get cocky!

put the PROPORTIONS


24 posted on 08/04/2014 1:10:20 PM PDT by pfony1 (Add just 6 GOP Senators and we "bury" Harry)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Wyatt's Torch
If the GOP can’t make material gains in 14, 2016 is going to be an epic disaster.

They'll probably win five, but lose McConnell's seat in KY. Call it +4.

25 posted on 08/04/2014 1:10:51 PM PDT by ScottinVA (If it doesn't include border security, it isn't "reform." It's called "amnesty.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: fieldmarshaldj

If McCain were to go, Lindsay Graham would shortly follow.


26 posted on 08/04/2014 1:11:15 PM PDT by monocle (ain)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

This election will show the state of the people minds. I predict the GOP will do well, but only that. Which implies that the state of the people minds is still being clouded.

Being clouded by who and why is the real question.


27 posted on 08/04/2014 1:12:30 PM PDT by ForYourChildren (Christian Education [ RomanRoadsMedia.com - a Classical Christian Approach to Homeschool])
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Yollopoliuhqui

Gonna tell you another thing, kid. STINGRAY. The program your local cops have been using those new Explorers to vacuum up your cell phone records.

Pretty sure Snowden will release this in October.


28 posted on 08/04/2014 1:12:58 PM PDT by txhurl (2014: Stunned Voters do Stunning Things!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: RIghtwardHo

Nope.


29 posted on 08/04/2014 1:24:38 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: ScottinVA; All
Mitch McConnell (especially if he’s voted
out of the Majority Leader position)
sure, maybe Minority Leader (by Reid's rules), why pay
attn. to the Senate rules, he rules the senate..

"We Don't need no rules..."

30 posted on 08/04/2014 1:35:05 PM PDT by skinkinthegrass (The end move in politics is always to pick up a weapon...0'Mullah / "Rustler" 0'Reid? d8-)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Hard to have a “wave” when you have no unifying theme to nationalize the election. Oh no, to do that would be to anger the independents or be called racist or some such nonsense. Instead, the GOPe is employing the same “run out the clock and win by default” strategy they employed in 2012.


31 posted on 08/04/2014 1:45:25 PM PDT by FlipWilson
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

polls do not show a Republican “wave” is forming

That proves the utter failure of the GOP to effectively engage a POTUS worse than Carter.


32 posted on 08/04/2014 6:11:51 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dead

They need to grab 11 seats. A slim 1 vote majority just makes these dopes victims. What will they accomplish? I like that they get committees under their control, but they’re just caretakers until 2016 and a new POTUS. You have to have some depth to keep control.

2016 has 23 GOP Senators up for reelection and only 10 Democrats.

SENATORS UP FOR REELECTION IN 2016

DEMOCRATS

Michael Bennet (Colorado)
Richard Blumenthal (Connecticut)
Barbara Boxer (California)
Patrick Leahy (Vermont)
Joe Manchin (West Virginia)
Barbara Mikulski (Maryland)
Patty Murray (Washington)
Harry Reid (Nevada)
Charles Schumer (New York)
Ron Wyden (Oregon)

REPUBLICANS

Kelly Ayotte (New Hampshire)
Roy Blunt (Missouri)
John Boozman (Arkansas)
Richard Burr (North Carolina)
Dan Coats (Indiana)
Tom Coburn (Oklahoma) – Retiring in 2014. Seat TBD in 2014 special election.
Mike Crapo (Idaho)
Chuck Grassley (Iowa)
John Hoeven (North Dakota)
Johnny Isakson (Georgia)
Ron Johnson (Wisconsin)
Mark Kirk (Illinois)
Mike Lee (Utah)
John McCain (Arizona)
Jerry Moran (Kansas)
Lisa Murkowski (Alaska)
Rand Paul (Kentucky)
Rob Portman (Ohio)
Marco Rubio (Florida)
Richard Shelby (Alabama)
John Thune (South Dakota)
Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania)
David Vitter (Louisiana)

Hawaii, Oklahoma and South Carolina each have one Senate seat TBD in 2014 Special Election. Winner of 2014 special election will be up for re-election in 2016.


33 posted on 08/04/2014 6:17:37 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson