Skip to comments.Understanding the Israeli-Egyptian-Saudi alliance
Posted on 08/22/2014 7:39:57 AM PDT by SJackson
The partnership that has emerged in this war between Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia is a direct consequence of Obamas abandonment of the USs traditional allies.
Hamass war with Israel is not a stand-alone event. It is happening in the context of the vast changes that are casting asunder old patterns of behavior and strategic understandings as actors in the region begin to reassess the threats they face.
Hamas was once funded by Saudi Arabia and enabled by Egypt. Now the regimes of these countries view it as part of a larger axis of Sunni jihad that threatens not only Israel, but them.
The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and its state sponsors Qatar and Turkey, are the key members of this alliance structure. Without their support Hamas would have gone down with the Muslim Brotherhood regime in Egypt last summer. As it stands, all view Hamass war with Israel as a means of reinstating the Brotherhood to power in that country.
To achieve a Hamas victory, Turkey, Qatar and the Muslim Brotherhood are using Western support for Hamas against Israel. If the US and the EU are able to coerce Egypt and Israel to open their borders with Gaza, then the Western powers will hand the jihadist axis a strategic victory.
The implications of such a victory would be dire.
Hamas is ideologically indistinguishable from Islamic State. Like Islamic State, Hamas has developed mass slaughter and psychological terrorization as the primary tools in its military doctrine. If the US and the EU force Israel and Egypt to open Gazas borders, they will enable Hamas to achieve strategic and political stability in Gaza. As a consequence, a post-war Gaza will quickly become a local version of Islamic State-controlled Mosul.
In the first instance, such a development will render life in southern Israel too imperiled to sustain. The Western Negev, and perhaps Beersheba, Ashkelon and Ashdod, will become uninhabitable.
Then there is Judea and Samaria. If, as the US demands, Israel allows Gaza to reconnect with Judea and Samaria, in short order Hamas will dominate the areas. Militarily, the transfer of even a few of the thousands of rocket-propelled grenades Hamas has in Gaza will imperil military forces and civilians alike.
IDF armored vehicles and armored civilian buses will be blown to smithereens.
Whereas operating from Gaza, Hamas needed the assistance of the Obama administration and the Federal Aviation Administration to shut down Ben-Gurion Airport, from Judea and Samaria, all Hamas would require are a couple of hand-held mortars.
Jordan will also be directly threatened.
From Egypts perspective, a Hamas victory in the war with Israel that connects Gaza to Sinai will strengthen the Muslim Brotherhood and its Islamic State and other allies. Such a development represents a critical threat to the regime.
And this brings us to Islamic State itself. It couldnt have grown to its current monstrous proportions without the support of Qatar and Turkey.
Islamic State is obviously interested in expanding its conquests. Since it views itself as a state, its next move must be one that enables it to take over a national economy. The raid on Mosuls central bank will not suffice to finance its operations for very long.
At this point, Islamic State wishes to avoid an all-out confrontation with Iran, so moving into southern Iraq is probably not in the cards. US forces in Kuwait, and the strength and unity of purpose of the Jordanian military, probably take both kingdoms off Islamic States chopping block for now.
This leaves Saudi Arabia, or parts of it, as a likely next target for Islamic State expansion.
Islamic States current operations in Lebanon, which threaten the Saudi-supported regime there, indicate that Lebanon, at a minimum, is also at grave risk.
Then there is Iran. Iran is not a member of the Sunni jihadist axis. But when it comes to Israel and the non-jihadist regimes, it has cooperated with it.
Iran has funded, trained and armed Hamas for the past decade. It views Hamass war with Israel in the same light as it viewed its Lebanese proxy Hezbollahs war with Israel eight years ago.
Both in Iraq and Syria, Iran and Islamic State have shown little interest in making one another their primary target. Turkey and Qatar have often served as Irans supporters in the Sunni world.
This is the context in which Israel is fighting its war with Hamas. And due to this context, two interrelated strategically significant events have occurred since the war began.
The first relates to the US.
The Obama administrations decision to side with the members of the jihadist axis against Israel by adopting their demand to open Gazas borders with Israel and Egypt has served as the final nail in the coffin of Americas strategic credibility among its traditional regional allies.
As the US has stood with Hamas, it has also maintained its pursuit of a nuclear deal with Iran. The USs position in these talks is to enable the mullocracy to follow North Koreas path to a nuclear arsenal. The non-jihadist Sunni states share Israels conviction that they cannot survive a nuclear armed Iran.
Finally, President Barack Obamas refusal to date to take offensive action to destroy Islamic State in Iraq and Syria demonstrates to Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states that under Obama, the US would rather allow Islamic State to expand into their territory and destroy them than return US military forces to Iraq.
In other words, Obamas pro-Hamas-, pro-Iran- and pro-Muslim Brotherhood-axis policies, along with his refusal to date to take effective action in Iraq and Syria to obliterate Islamic State, have convinced the USs traditional allies that for the next two-and-a-half years, not only can they not rely on the US, they cannot discount the possibility of the US taking actions that harm them.
It is in the face of the USs shift of allegiances under Obama that the non-jihadist Sunni regimes have begun to reevaluate their ties to Israel. Until the Obama presidency, the Saudis and Egyptians felt secure in their alliance with the US. Consequently, they never felt it necessary or even desirable to consider Israel as a strategic partner.
Under the USs strategic protection, the traditional Sunni regimes had the luxury of maintaining their support for Palestinian terrorists and rejecting the notion of strategic cooperation with Israel, whether against Iran, al-Qaida or any other common foe.
So sequestered by the US, Israel became convinced that the only way it could enjoy any benefit from its shared strategic interests with its neighbors was by first bowing to the USs long-held obsession with strengthening the PLO. This has involved surrendering land, political legitimacy and money to the terror group still committed to Israels destruction.
The war with Hamas has changed all of this.
The partnership that has emerged in this war between Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia is a direct consequence of Obamas abandonment of the USs traditional allies. Recognizing the threat that Hamas, as a component part of the Sunni jihadist alliance, constitutes for their own regimes, and in the absence of American support for Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have worked with Israel to defeat Hamas and keep Gazas borders sealed.
Most Israelis have yet to grasp the strategic significance of this emerging alliance. This owes in large part to the Lefts domination of the public discourse.
The Israeli Left sees this new partnership. But it fails to understand its basis or significance. For the Left, all developments lead to the same conclusion: Whatever happens, Israel must strengthen the PLO by strengthening Palestinian Authority Chairman and PLO chief Mahmoud Abbas.
Failing to recognize the basis for Israels emerging strategic partnership, led by Finance Minister Yair Lapid and Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, the Left is advocating using our new ties with Saudi Arabia and Egypt as a means of strengthening Abbas by organizing a regional peace conference.
What they fail to understand is that such a move would destroy the partnership.
Israels strategic cooperation with Egypt and Saudi Arabia owes to their shared interests. It cannot extend beyond them. And they have no shared interests in regard to the PLO.
Threatened by the axis of jihad, no Muslim government can be seen publicly with Israelis. Asking Egyptian and Saudi leaders to have their pictures taken with Israelis is like asking them to sign their own death warrants.
Moreover, Israels required end-state in negotiations with the PLO defensible borders and recognition of its sovereign rights to Jerusalem is something that no Muslim regime can publicly accept especially now.
So far from building on our new cooperative relationship, if the government heeds the Lefts advice and uses our incipient ties with the Saudis and Egyptians to strengthen the PLO, it will highlight and exacerbate conflicting interests and so destroy the partnership.
Moreover, the fact is that the PLO can play no constructive role for any of the sides in weakening our common foes. As he has for the past decade, during the current war Abbas has demonstrated that he is utterly worthless in the fight against the forces of jihad both of the Sunni and Shiite variety.
At least for the duration of Obamas presidency the interests that Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Israel share in preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons and defeating the Muslim Brotherhood/Islamic State as military and political threats can only be advanced through joint action.
The Obama administration would have forced Israel to bow to Hamass demands weeks ago if the Egyptians and Saudis hadnt opposed a Hamas victory.
Without Israeli military action, Iran will become a nuclear power. In light of the USs backing of Irans nuclear program, such an Israeli operation is effectively impossible without regional support.
As to Islamic State, right now the US is interested in cooperating with Iran in fighting the barbaric force.
In exchange for Iranian cooperation, the US is liable to cede Basra and the Shatt al-Arab to Iran.
Effective cooperation between Israel, the Kurds and the Sunnis could contain, and perhaps defeat, Islamic State while reducing Irans chances of securing the strategically vital waterway.
Since the emerging partnership between Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia is a direct result of the Obama administrations destruction of US strategic credibility, it is fairly clear that if properly managed, it can last until January 2017. Until then, in all likelihood, the US will be unwilling and unable to rebuild its reputation.
And until then, the parties are unlikely to find alternative means of securing their interests that are more effective than joint action.
Given the stakes, and the complementary capabilities of the various parties, Israels primary task today must be to work quietly and diligently with the Saudis and Egyptians to expand on their joint achievements in Gaza.
The Israeli-Egyptian-Saudi alliance can ensure that all members survive the Obama era. And if lasts into the next administration, it will place all of its members on more secure footing with the US, whether or not a new administration decides to rebuild the US alliance structure in the Middle East.
isis = hamas = saudi royals
My enemy wants to kill me, kill my family, kill my government, and enslave my people.
The enemy of my enemy can be my friend.
The Muslim Brotherhood, which was spawned in the high reaches of the Saudi Royal family, and was much supported by oil money for years, has finally frightened the Saudis enough that they are willing to make a “de facto” alliance with the dreaded Zionists, and the Egyptian military hadmade a political decision to suppress the MB, apparently some time ago, as the MB has tried to take over from the Egyptian military, off and on for many years.
ISIS and al-Qaeda are both franchises of MB, and they have become very important militant mobilization factors. Considering that MB has already made a penetration at many levels in the Current Regime now squatting in the White Hut, the territory once known as “the United States of America” has already been seriously compromised.
The enemy of my enemy is my friend......................
Wish I had your faith.
Good to know....what a tangled web of evil.
The author is either being ridiculously polite, is another PR guy on payroll, or is dangerously naive.
Obama admin overtly supported the overthrow of the Egyptian government by the Muslim Brotherhood radicals. Obama is covertly aligned with Qatar and Iran, and Islamic Revolutionaries.
That coalition has created a very dangerous environment for Saudia Arabia and UAE nations. Egypt is an example of what could to them. It is obvious Obama is aiding and abetting America’s enemies.
The entire region is afraid if Iran’s radicalism. I know for a fact that Iran paid for Chavez campaign in Venezuela. From what I have seen from Obama, i have no doubt that Iran has some powerfull alliances around the world.
Chavez turned Venezuela into a full fledged narco state, using military planes to ship tonnes of cocaine directly into airports such as Paris, France. The media was curiously silent about Venezuela’s trafficking, as they are about the fact that Islamic Revolutionaries under any name are all involved in the drug trafficking trade.
Wall Street banks have given the Obama campaign more money than any politician in history. Obama responded with $TRILLIONS for the “bail out” given by the Federal Reserve. They are all laundering $BILLIONS with impunity.
The bankster cartels are in charge and we are a narco nation.
The Federal Reserve did not give trillions, they lent.
Loans that were paid back. Long ago...with interest.
not even Bush billion $ bailout was fully refunded. The only thing that came out of the last audit was that another surprise $16 TRILLION had been secretly “loaned” out by the Federal Reserve. They are still “loaning” it out, show me anywhere, where it was all paid out.
The bank portion of TARP was repaid with a profit of billions for the Treasury.
The mortgage modification giveaway, of course, is lost money.
And we lost a bunch on the auto bailout giveaways to the UAW.
They are still loaning it out, show me anywhere, where it was all paid out.
At the above link, you can see the Fed is currently lending $10 million at the Discount Window. That means all those overnight loans have been repaid. Central Bank Liquidity Swaps, that's the stuff Grayson was whining about in 2009, are currently $75 million. TALF is down to $44 million.
Not sure where you're getting your bad info, but you need better sources.
Hamas, to my great regret, is Israel's creation,” says Mr. Cohen, a Tunisian-born Jew who worked in Gaza for more than two decades. Responsible for religious affairs in the region until 1994, Mr. Cohen watched the Islamist movement take shape, muscle aside secular Palestinian rivals and then morph into what is today Hamas, a militant group that is sworn to Israel's destruction.
Instead of trying to curb Gaza's Islamists from the outset, says Mr. Cohen, Israel for years tolerated and, in some cases, encouraged them as a counterweight to the secular nationalists of the Palestine Liberation Organization and its dominant faction, Yasser Arafat's Fatah.
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