Skip to comments.Poll: Scott Walker’s lead grows with registered Wisconsin voters… but trails among likely voters?
Posted on 08/27/2014 4:11:19 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Fresh numbers from Marquette University Law School’s respected pollster confirms that Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race remains extremely tight. The head-to-head match up sits within the margin of error, but this split is unusual:
New Marquette Law School Poll finds Walker at 47.5%, Burke at 44.1% among registered voters. #mulawpoll
MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) August 27, 2014
Among likely voters, Burke has 48.6% and Walker 46.5%, new Marquette Law School Poll shows. #mulawpoll
MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) August 27, 2014
Walker has improved his standing with registered voters since MU Law’s May and July surveys, but has fallen among respondents who are likely to vote. Odd. Typically, Republicans fare better among “likelies” than with “registereds.” Not here:
Among the less likely voters, Walker is supported by 50%, Burke by 31%. #mulawpoll MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) August 27, 2014
A 19-point Walker lead among “less likely voters”? As I say, unusual. In the LV category, Walker is suffering from a pronounced gender gap, trailing among women by 18 points. With RV’s, though, the split drops to a more manageable seven-point disparity. Walker dominates male voters within both groups. Overall, Dems enjoy a (+4) enthusiasm gap in this survey, which produces a (D+6) LV sample. As a point of reference, the high-turnout 2012 recall electorate was (R+1). Should these new stats hold up in November, Wisconsin will have bucked this year’s national trend of Republicans’ enthusiasm outpacing Democrats’. How likely is that? We’ll see, I guess. If you’re an incurable Eeyore — cough — there’s ample pessimism-fueling material within this poll’s internals.
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The fraud by evil dems will be rampant.
We must have an overwhelming victory to make up for it.
sounds more like statistical noise.
“gender gap” = incompetent female teachers who had to perform in the classroom or get out...
registered is more important than likely.
he’s gonna win again.
This is a college kid poll. They ALWAYS swerve to the left.
I don’t know. Rasmussen has it almost a dead heat with Walker a bit behind. Never underestimate the stupidity of the average voter.
No doubt-— also the amount of ‘minorities’ now in this nation is astounding.
Rasmussen sold his company and his polling model has been demonstrated to be unreliable given the legal limitations of automated polling. It’s nothing more that a propaganda tool these days.
Another fake poll by the commies at Marquette U. It’s designed to suppress conservative voters and get liberal, commie scum to the ballot box.
The best way to correct this erroneous poll is to look up the commie professors and beat the cr*p out of them. It’s time to stop playing by the liberal rules they set for us, while the leftist Nazi scum obey no rules or laws.
And if you fear physically confronting some 400 lb, 50 IQ liberal ape eating doughnuts, I suggest you get yourself to the gym and work out for 15 minutes.
I don’t know about particular pollsters, but it always seems conservatives try to deny the polls and the polls usually end up being pretty close. Wish it weren’t so.
Certainly has been the case since 2008.
You’ve got that backward. Not all registered voters are likely voters. LVs are critical to victory.
The Marquette poll of 609 likely voters was conducted from Aug. 21-24. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
That’s a pretty large margin.
The explanation for the disparity may be that at this stage of the campaign, Walker is thought well of by the general public but his opponents have done the better job of identifying, contacting, and persuading likely voters. This ought to set off alarm bells for Walker and his campaign strategists and managers.
hmmm. okay. i figured being registered took more effort than saying i think i’m gonna vote.
No, the LVs are a subset of Registered Voters. Many voters are eligible, fewer are registered and the smallest and most important are Likely Voters. Likely Voters have a long history of always voting, thus the focus on them when polling and GOTV.
Given that margin, there is no statistically significant difference between the LV poll and the RV one. The poll basically tells us what we already knew; this race is essentially a tossup. Either candidate could win based on this data.
Exactly. This is a very tight race in a nearly evenly split state. I suspect that blacks will stay home again and Walker will win.
That’s why I like Walker for VP.
Sometimes it’s hard for the Left to keep its lies straight.
The same polling group found the same results, in the same election time frame, in 2012. Lets hope they are just as wrong this time too.