Skip to comments.New Hampshire poll: Ayotte opens up 6-point lead; Walker, others lead Clinton
Posted on 04/27/2015 1:06:45 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
The incumbent Republican senator from New Hampshire opened up a six-point over Gov. Margaret Maggie Hassan, her presumptive Democratic challenger in the April 21-22 Townhall/Gravis poll of 1,117 voters.
Sen. Kelly A. Ayotte (R.-N.H.), who was endorsed in 2010 by former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, is building a solid lead over Hassan, said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Insights, the Florida-based firm that conducted the poll. Hassan has not announced.
Ayotte leads with voters under 50, 52 percent to Hassans 40 percent and support of 88 percent of Republicans, he said. Hassan holds the support of 82 percent of Democrats.
In polls pitting former first lady Hillary R. Clinton head-to-head against GOP contenders, shows Republicans leading or in virtual ties, Kaplan said.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott K. Walker leads Clinton 47 percent to 44 percent, he said.
Among Catholics, Walker leads Clinton 49 percent to 41 percent, among Evangelical Protestants, 72 percent to 22 percent, he said. Men favor Walker over Clinton, 51 percent to 40 percent and Women favor Clinton over Walker 47 percent to 43 percent.
Kaplan said the polling Clinton is still the odds-on favorite for the 2016 Democratic nomination for president.
The recent issues with the Clinton finances and email scandal have obviously hurt her, he said. Her announcement did not seem to give her a bump. We believe this is a temporary set back for Mrs. Clinton.
Bad news cycles for Clinton, do not change the facts on the ground, he said.
She does not have a legitimate primary opponent and she is on the defense from the Republicans, he said. Once the debates start and a front runner appears, we believe Clinton will then be able to draw a contrast and her poll numbers will bounce back.
Interestingly, neither Walker nor former Florida governor John E. Jeb Bush have formally announced their candidacies for the White House, he said.
Walker at 16 percent trails Bushs 18 percent in the crowded field of GOP hopefuls, he said. Kentucky Sen. Randal H. Rand Paul is now third with 16 percent.
The Wisconsin governor and Bush still lead the pack in New Hampshire, as we have seen in other states, Kaplan said. Pauls strength was dormant, and we have been waiting for his numbers to reflect both the time he is spending in the Granite State and the popularity of his father, the Texas former congressman Ron Paul.
Clinton and Bush are locked in a tie at 42 percent, he said.
Paul leads Clinton 45 percent to 44 percent, he said. The Kentucky senator beats Clinton among Catholics, 47 percent to 42 percent; among Evangelical Protestants, 72 percent to 22 percent.
Men support Paul, 51 percent to 40 percent, but Clinton leads Paul among women, 47 percent to 43 percent, Kaplan said. The numbers are a lot closer among women for Paul against Clinton than for other candidates.
Florida Sen. Marco A. Rubio is fourth in the running, garnering the support of 11 percent, Kaplan said. Among female GOP voters, Rubios 13 percent puts him second among women to Bushs 18 percent.
The Florida senator runs well against Clinton, polling at 44 percent against her 45 percenta virtual tie, he said. Rubio beats the former secretary of state among Catholics 46 percent to 44 percent and among Evangelical Protestants, 76 percent to 18 percent.
Notes: Gravis Insights, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of potential Republican and Democratic Primary voters in New Hampshire, as well as general election voters. The poll included 666 respondents for the Republican Primary and 369 for the Democratic Primary and 1,117 overall respondents. The poll has a margin of error of ± 4% for the Republican Primary, ± 5% for the Democratic Primary, and ± 3% for the poll as a whole. Results may not sum to 100% because of rounding. The poll was conducted using IVR technology. The weighting of the results was performed separately depending on whether the question was for all respondents, just Republicans, or just Democrats.
Full polling data
"About 7,500 votes were cast in The Weekly Standard's third presidential poll of the year, twice as many as in the poll a couple of months ago.
In that straw poll (and, to repeat, these are obviously not scientific surveys, but rather polls of those who chose to participate), Scott Walker, was far ahead, with almost half the first place votes. He still leads, but has come back to the field some. He's got 30% of the first place ballots, and appears on an impressive 69% of all ballots as a first, second or third choice.
Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio have surged to second and third place, with 24% and 18% first place choices respectively; Rubio appears on 51% of ballots, Cruz on 45%. These are the big three on this week's survey: No one else gets more than 5% of first place votes, or appears on more than 18% of ballots overall."...
"Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker appears to have an early edge in Iowa. Craig Robinson, founder and editor of TheIowaRepublican.com, calls Walker the clear frontrunner following the weekend Faith and Freedom Coalition event in that state, which hosts the countrys first caucuses....
..Robinson detailed Walkers speech saying he is definitely the frontrunner among Iowa voters.
He draws a tremendous amount of interest amongst caucus-goers, and the only question is whether his campaign will harvest all of that interest into support, Robinson said."
Any one know if there is any chance that a solid conservative will run against Ayotte?
"In results that were stunning for several reasons, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker was the runaway winner in a "straw poll" of Republican presidential favorites at Pennsylvanias largest-ever gathering of conservatives, the Pennsylvania Leadership Conference, on Friday and Saturday.
With the "straw ballots" counted and released on Saturday, Walker was an easy winner with 91 votes, followed by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz with 58 votes. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum was third with 56 votes.
Since the first PLC back in 1989, the group has become the most-attended and most-watched conclave of conservatives in the Keystone State. Fueled by the recent campaigns of conservative Sen. Pat Toomey (R.-Pa.) and by the rise of the "tea party movement" over the past five years, the 2015 PLC attracted a record 700-plus participants to the Radisson Hotel in Harrisburg.
Walkers showing among this group was particularly impressive in that many PLC participants freely acknowledged to Newsmax that they had never met the governor but admired him tremendously for successfully standing up to organized labor over reform of pensions and healthcare for public employees."....
One example of a Pennsylvania conservative. Tom Ridge What does that tell us? Even though I do like Walker but like the Cruz message more.
Great news. Doesn’t look like ex-Gov. Tom Ridge’s endorsement gave Jeb much of a bounce.
I wish all those little guys would just get out of the race, they have no chance of winning and are taking votes away from people who might win. I’m speaking of Carson and Huckabee primarily. Good guys both.
Just looked at real clear politics polls and they may not have much but are pulling conservative votes away from a possible winner.
Then there’s Christie who’s pulling a few votes but I suspect those would probably go to Bush.
Santorum would be another one, he won’t win and only reason he got so many in Pennsylvania straw poll is because he’s from there. Too crowded in the Republican field, once we hit the debates, no one will have any time to get their message across.
It will be interesting to see Walker’s number after he announces.
He’ll do that after the 2015-17 Wisconsin budget is finalized and signed (budget needs to be signed by the end of June).
Walker leading Clinton in New Hampshire poll.
FReep Mail me if you want on, or off, this Wisconsin iterest ping list.
Cruz’s message is great but unfortunately for him, Walker has actually been continuing to get things done at work while Cruz is off galavanting across the state not even bothering to show up to vote. Optics means a lot. And no I am not talking about 1 vote but he hasn’t voted on 3 important bills this week. I know raising money is his priority now but you would think he would do the bare minimum just for show if nothing else.
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