The change in Iowa: Conservatives move to Cruz, moderates to Rubio

Washington Post ^ | May 6 at 9:44 AM | Philip Bump

[SoConPubbie]

Quinnipiac University has a new Iowa poll out that offers good news for Scott Walker. The Wisconsin governor's lead among Republicans in the neighboring state has slipped slightly, but he's still about two miles ahead.

The more interesting details emerge once you compare the new poll to Quinnipiac's last survey in the state, completed in February. At the time, there weren't any actual candidates in the race. Comparing the February results to the new ones, though, reinforces something we saw elsewhere: Campaign launches boost candidates.

Any dot above the red dotted line marks a candidate who's doing better than two months ago. Dots beneath? Worse. So Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) has seen a big jump, as has Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.). Jeb Bush, whom some may remember from previous seasons of "The Bushes," saw his support fall 50 percent.

The Rubio and Cruz surges, though, have different causes. Cruz saw big gains among members of the tea party, evangelical Christians and staunch conservatives, at the expense of Rick Santorum and Walker.

Rubio's jump came from somwehat-conservative voters (Quinnipiac's term) and moderate or liberal ones -- mostly at the expense of Jeb Bush and Chris Christie.

This is just Iowa, mind you, but it shows precisely the dynamic that Cruz in particular hopes to replicate nationally: a strong pitch for the far right that boosts his chances for the GOP presidential nomination. The problem for Cruz and Rubio is that you only get one campaign launch. And there are a lot more of those to come.

[SoConPubbie]

"If we must have an enemy at the head of Government, let it be one whom we can oppose, and for whom we are not responsible, who will not involve our party in the disgrace of his foolish and bad measures." - Alexander Hamilton "We don't intend to turn the Republican Party over to the traitors in the battle just ended. We will have no more of those candidates who are pledged to the same goals as our opposition and who seek our support. Turning the Party over to the so-called moderates wouldn’t make any sense at all." -- President Ronald Reagan "A thing moderately good is not so good as it ought to be. Moderation in temper is always a virtue; but moderation in principle is always a vice." - Thomas Paine 1792 "It does not take a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men." - Samuel Adams "If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen." - Samuel Adams

[SoConPubbie]

    Ted Cruz Ping!

    If you want on/off this ping list, please let me know.
    Please beware, this is a high-volume ping list!

    CRUZ or LOSE!

[GeronL]

Will Walker and Rubio end up splitting the less conservative vote with Bush?

Is that what Cruz is aiming for?

[SoConPubbie]

Will Walker and Rubio end up splitting the less conservative vote with Bush?

Is that what Cruz is aiming for?

I'm beginning to think that was his plan all along.

[Reaganite Republican]

A-men

[DoughtyOne]

The real danger here is watching people we think are out and forgetting the other people we thought were out.

Dole
Bush
McCain
Romney

It can happen again, and we’re seeing it play out before our eyes.

[sickoflibs]

From your link:

Walker is at 21 percent of likely GOP caucus participants,

Rand Paul and Marco Rubio of Florida with 13 percent each

Ted Cruz of Texas with 12 percent

Mike Huckabee with 11 percent.

[Thunder90]

Scott Walker PING!

[SoConPubbie]

From my link:

“Cruz saw big gains among members of the tea party, evangelical Christians and staunch conservatives, at the expense of Rick Santorum and Walker.”

[DoughtyOne]

You guys need to revisit your crystal ball.

Is it Liberal Republicans who are swarming to Walker?

Don’t think Walker Rubio.

Think Walker, Cruz, Rubio, Huckabee, Fiorina, and on and on as the list grows.

It’s people who consider themselves Conservatives that are diversifying. That’s going to give us Bush.

We know who the Left will vote for, and his family has had two presidents in it already.

[matthew fuller]

I really think that the polling outfits should pay more attention to the arguably largest voting block, independents.

[SoConPubbie]

Is it Liberal Republicans who are swarming to Walker?

More moderate voters yes. And conservatives are migrating to Cruz. Remember, all he has to do is win the nomination by a plurality.

Cruz saw big gains among members of the tea party, evangelical Christians and staunch conservatives, at the expense of Rick Santorum and Walker.

[stephenjohnbanker]

“Conservatives move to Cruz, moderates to Rubio”

“Conservatives move to Cruz, TRAITORS to Rubio”

Fixed it.

[afraidfortherepublic]

Walker still ahead in Iowa, although loses some support to Cruz and Rubio.

FReep Mail me if you want on, or off, this Wisconsin interest ping list.

[sickoflibs]

RE:”From my link:
“Cruz saw big gains among members of the tea party, evangelical Christians and staunch conservatives, at the expense of Rick Santorum and Walker.”

Big gains?

With Walker at 21% and Cruz down at 12% after those ‘Big Gains’ its because Cruz was tied with Donald Trump before he announced his run.

Walkers not even a candidate yet.

[SoConPubbie]

With Walker at 21% and Cruz down at 12% after those ‘Big Gains’ its because Cruz was tied with Donald Trump before he announced his run.

So???

A big gain is a big gain.

[DoughtyOne]

I want you to watch real hard what is taking place on this forum.

Many who consider themselves to be Conservatives have proven themselves willing to vote for a man that lies to them. They don’t even care if he lies to them in the single biggest claim he makes to win their votes.

No longer do things like this matter:

Read my lips...

I never had sex with this woman...

You can keep your health plan...

I have changed my immigration policies (which is a proveable lie)

This is what folks think Conservatism amounts to in 2016.

Do I agree with your assessment of Walker? Sure.

Do all Conservatives? Evidently not. At least on onward appearances they don’t.

I would submit true Conservatives, ones who actually believe what they say when they trash liars, do agree with you.

[SoConPubbie]

I know D1, I know.

We just have to keep keeping on.

I believe the good guys will win out in the end on this one.

But the fight is going to be a hard one.

[sickoflibs]

RE:”A big gain is a big gain. “

Big gain???

When he was tied with Trump at the bottom there was only one direction they could go from there.

Poll numbers cant go below zero 0%, that is the absolute floor.

Maybe its the 'Dead Cat's bounce'

[Lumper20]

Those are the numbers I saw this AM. Pretty sure wife had Fox on. Cruz was in 4th place. It is very early.