Skip to comments.Russia would be able to occupy Baltics in two days- Czech general
Posted on 05/28/2015 6:46:42 AM PDT by McGruff
Russia would be able to occupy the Baltic countries in two days, a period during which NATO would not be capable of reacting adequately, Czech general Petr Pavel, who will take up the post of the NATO Military Committee head in June, said at a Prague conference on security affairs today.
Pavel warned that NATO´s political representation is incapable of reacting to a changed situation fast enough.
He said the measures Europe has taken in face of the threats of Russia and Islamic State are "embarrassingly ineffective."
"On the one hand, one of [NATO´s] disadvantages is its complex process of decision making. It is because NATO has 28 members who have to reach consensus on all conclusions," Pavel told CTK.
On the other hand, Russia is capable of making a decision very quickly, within a few hours, he said.
The length of NATO´s approval procedures on both the national and alliance levels far exceeds the deadlines within which its rapid reaction forces are capable of deployment, Pavel said.
The rapid reaction forces are able to intervene within two days, he said, adding that the political process must be put in harmony with the military forces´ deployment deadlines.
Russia would be able to occupy the Baltics within two days, during which NATO would be incapable of reacting to the situation. NATO would face the question of whether to start war, perhaps nuclear, against Russia over the occupied Baltics, Pavel said.
"From the technical point of view, if I consider how many forces Russia is able to deploy in the Baltics, the size of the Baltic countries and the density of forces on their territories, the Baltics could really be occupied in a couple of days," Pavel told CTK later today.
"A different question is how effective the deterrence element, represented by NATO´s Article 5 and its nuclear component, would be in relation to Russia," Pavel said.
He also criticised shortcomings in NATO´s sharing of intelligence information and the absence of NATO´s own intelligence network.
Pavel´s view was opposed by Jiri Sedivy, Czech ambassador to NATO, who said NATO´s intelligence system is of a high quality.
Sedivy said Russia would probably be able to occupy Kiev, for example, within two days. However, the question is whether it would have a sufficient logistic support afterwards, he said.
Former Czech chief-of-staff Jiri Sedivy, whose name is identical with the above ambassador´s, said Russia could not win a war with NATO and it is aware of this.
Nevertheless, Russia could try to destabilise society, Sedivy said, pointing out the demonstrable Russian propaganda that accompanied the previous Czech debate on whether to enable the installation of a U.S. missile defence radar near Prague, and the recent crossing of the Czech Republic by a U.S. military convoy.
Sedivy said he would welcome it if the state had an instrument to control the information environment.
The Baltics might take exception to the occupation.
The bigger question is, can Russia sustain operations for any length of time? More recent history tells us the answer is no.
Probably the reason Russia hasn’t invaded the rest of Ukraine. But, who would want it?
The way to ensure that does not happen is to pre position American and other NATO troops and equipment in the Baltics and Poland.
A country that can't or won't defend itself is not going to survive.
You are correct concerning Russia's logistical abilities. The real question though would Putin need to sustain an offensive operation? With our current leadership on both sides of the aisle, would the US (NATO) even begin to fulfill their treaty obligations of mutual defense other than sending a strongly worded letter to the Kremlin?
Putin will have to greatly expand his Hide Russia’s Dead Program
The Baltic Countries and Poland are in NATO and we are bound by treaty to defend them. Not living up to our NATO obligations would destroy every alliance we have and empower Russia, China and Iran to untold adventures.
Of course I know those countries are in NATO. What I’m saying is the US and most European nations aren’t even defending our own borders from invasion. Why would any country assume they’d defend them? I repeat, if a country wants to be safe in the horrible times we live in, they should stop whining and depending on treaties, and defend themselves!
Haven't you noticed? Europe is being over-run by invaders from the Mideast and Africa. There won't be anything left to defend if the EU doesn't get its act together.
And in doing so, softens up elsewhere for some yet to be identified country to exploit. That’s a lot of border Putin has to cover.
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