Why did the polls get it wrong at the general election? Because they lied (UK)

The Telegraph ^ | 06-24-2015 | Dan Hodges

[NRx]

...We do know why the polls were wrong. And it has nothing to do with sampling or turnout or demographics or Shy Tories or Lazy Labourites or a last minute swing. The polls were wrong because the polling industry collectively and deliberately and cynically manipulated its own findings. In other words, the pollsters lied to us all.

Let’s take a trip back in time. Several trips, in fact. On April 13 the Guardian produced the article: “General election 2015: why do phone and internet polls give different results?”. A day later the website UK Polling Report produced a piece on “phone and online differences”. On May 2 the New Statesman’s website produced its own piece headlined: “The Tories are 3 points ahead in phone polls, but tied with Labour in online polls”.

Since the election, the narrative has been “the polls were wrong”. But what people are conveniently forgetting is that during the election the narrative was different. Back then, it was “why are the polls all over the place?”. More specifically, it was “why do online polls show a dead heat, but phone polls show the Tories beginning to build a quite significant lead?”.

But then something strange happened. Over the final 72 hours this discrepancy between the phone polls and online began to vanish. The polls suddenly began to cluster. The wide variation between the polling companies – variation that we had been witnessing for the best part of five years – mysteriously stopped. All the pollsters were suddenly, and miraculously, in agreement. The election would be a tie, give or take a single point in either direction.

I say “strange”, but it wasn’t strange. It was wholly predictable. Cynical, disreputable, despicable. But predictable.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

it wasn’t strange. It was wholly predictable. Cynical, disreputable, despicable. But predictable.

It’s what known in the polling industry as “herding”. And herding, not to put too fine a point on it, is when pollsters cheat.

The fundamental reason why polls are wrong is that polls are journalism - and journalism is propaganda. Call that cynicism if you will - but the fact is that journalists herd together all the time. Via the mechanism of the Associated Press newswire, if in no other way.

The natural disposition is always to believe. It is acquired wisdom and experience only that teach incredulity, and they very seldom teach it enough. The wisest and most cautious of us all frequently gives credit to stories which he himself is afterwards both ashamed and astonished that he could possibly think of believing.

The man whom we believe is necessarily, in the things concerning which we believe him, our leader and director, and we look up to him with a certain degree of esteem and respect. . . .

The desire of being believed, the desire of persuading, of leading and directing other people, seems to be one of the strongest of all our natural desires. - Adam Smith, Theory of Moral Sentiments

Such being the case, skepticism is nothing to be ashamed of. To the contrary, the effect of FR of enabling us to pool our “incredulity” it is a cardinal virtue.

[bajabaja]

I remember, perhaps wrongly, that the spread was 9 points and that labour got basically banished to Scotland.

And to me that means one day the UK is UK-1.