Why Pensions Are A (Big) Black Swan – Chicago’s Unfunded Liabilities Are 10 Times Its Revenues

Investment Watch ^ | July 17, 2015 | John Rubino

[TurboZamboni]

Coming soon to a Democrat-run metropolis near you!

[kiryandil]

There was a time in this country when being a government employee was considered one step above welfare.

It's not so, now. Most retired public employees are living pretty high.

[bert]

a regular size can will do nicely if it is titanium

[Soul of the South]

“Some things are just not possible no matter what the contract says. You had better keep that in mind when you sign up for something that is too good to be true... it usually isn’t either true or possible. You can wish all you want but you can’t get blood out of a turnip.”

When you are 18 or 22 years old, and going to work in your first full time job, the compensation isn’t “too good to be true”. It takes years of service, usually 30 or more, to earn a high pension payout.

I did fund my own retirement through personal savings. The small pension I am entitled to from one employer of 20 years, is grossly underfunded. Several times management has changed the actuarial assumptions or investment return assumptions to justify taking “surplus” funds from the pension pool or justify reducing annual funding costs. If at some point the company cannot make its payments to retirees and declares bankruptcy to foist the pension plan on the government, would you say the employees should take a haircut for signing up for something that is too good to be true. How about a haircut for the executives who decided not to fully fund and siphoned off the money so they could overstate earnings and maximize their bonuses? They should be sent to prison for theft but the K Street lobbyists have bribed Congress to write the laws so this kind of theft is permissible.

Look at the history of the last 30 years when investment banks, private equity firms, and corporate raiders routinely skimmed millions out of pension funds and then ran the company through bankruptcy to unload the pension liabilities on the government’s Pension Guarantee Benefit Corporation. Consider how in the GM bankruptcy, our government protected the union pensions 100% and made all of the non-union employees take substantially reduced or no benefits. Most of the non-union employees hurt were not executives, they were the middle and lower level managers and administrators, many of whom’s lifetime earnings were less than the union workers who were fully protected at the expense of the taxpayer.

I agree government will deliver on government pensions through higher taxes. The federal courts today are packed with progressives who will strike down any laws attempting to reduce pension payouts for current beneficiaries, particularly at the state and local level. At the federal level, Congress will keep spending and borrowing to cover spending above tax revenue. At some point we will have hyperinflation and all pensions will become worthless.

[Lurker]

Dude, there isn’t enough money. Period.

I’m sorry these public sector leeches believed the promises of politicians. I’m sorry they were so fricking stupid. But it’s not my fault. The math doesn’t work. The math never worked. It’s never going to work.

Stupid is supposed to hurt.

L

[1010RD]

Right. I did little to no necessary work and now I deserve 75% of my ‘working’ salary for the rest of my life (retired at 49 with 30 years in). Thanks sucker.

Imagine a contract you have to pay that was negotiated by the store and it’s employees. Say your plumber comes to fix that leak, charges you $100, but then says, “once I retire you’ll have to pay me $75/year for the rest of my life.” Is that a deal you’d make? Thought not. Representation must mean something to be true representation.

[Soul of the South]

Actually it is more like me selling a piece of property for $300,000 taking $100,000 in cash and a 20 year note for $200,000. A year after I sell the house, the state begins construction on an expressway adjacent to the piece of property. As a result, the market value of the property I sold is now $100,000. Does the individual who entered into a contract with me still owe me payment on the $200,000 note I hold or should he be allowed to arbitrarily cancel the debt because the property isn’t worth what he thought it was worth and now he no longer wants to pay?

[1010RD]

Incorrect. It’s like me and your attorney deciding how much I’m going to make off of you. Your attorney signs for you and we both make off like bandits.

[MSF BU]

They are more likely to screw bond holders.

[Alberta's Child]

Maybe. But that would only happen once, since any state that does something like this would become the equivalent of Zimbabwe for bond investors.

[MSF BU]

It already basically happened with Detroit and Muni buyers still buy. Personally I’ll take Exxon or Kimberly Clark & pay the tax. It will take a really major default where large number of bond holders get burned; Puerto Rico may not be big enough, it may take Illinois or California for the market crash.

[nascarnation]

I’d think it’s likely that the Dems will offer some type of federally guaranteed borrowing scheme for Illinois, California, and NY State.

Those 104 locked-in electoral votes are an awesome start to a POTUS win.

[PLMerite]

"Only a politician could define a 'pensions crisis' as a Black Swan. A Black Swan is UNEXPECTED."

Correct.

Godzilla, now there's a black...er, green swan!

[MSF BU]

My guess is you are correct; I just cannot see some poor taxpayer in Arkansas retired on 12K a year funding a bloated 100K pension to a retiree in NY or IL.