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Big Liberal Win In Canada Is Bad News For The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter
Foxtrot Alpha ^ | 10/20/2015 | Tyler Rogoway

Posted on 10/20/2015 7:37:03 AM PDT by sukhoi-30mki

Canada has had its very own F-35 saga over the last decade. In Ottawa, the beleaguered jet is so politically controversial that its procurement has become a major policy differential between the parties. Now, with the Liberals winning yesterday’s vote, it seems nearly impossible for the F-35 to find a home with America’s neighbor to the north.

Just last month, Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau made it clear that he intends to scrap the F-35 program all together. In its place he intends to run an transparent competition to choose a more affordable fighter. Even without Trudeau’s recent comments, it is crystal clear that Canada’s Liberal party wants nothing to do with the F-35. Their official platform on the F-35 is laid out on their webpage:

“We will not buy the F-35 stealth fighter-bomber.

We will immediately launch an open and transparent competition to replace the CF-18 fighter aircraft. The primary mission of our fighter aircraft should remain the defense of North America, not stealth first-strike capability.

We will reduce the procurement budget for replacing the CF-18s, and will instead purchase one of the many, lower-priced options that better match Canada’s defense needs.” Trudeau has said that savings from dropping the F-35 will be used to invest in Canada’s naval capabilities. This reallocation of funds would include investing in new icebreakers, search and rescue ships and aircraft and building more surface combatants. Trudeau has also alluded to an initiative to refocus Canada’s military into a leaner, smarter, more potent fighting force. One that incorporates new technologies like long-endurance unmanned surveillance aircraft.

As for a new fighter aircraft, Trudeau and the Liberals have stated again and again that Canada’s fighter corps’ primary mission is self defense, and there is no need for the F-35’s expensive stealth first-strike capabilities. As such, the likely contenders will to replace Canada’s aging Hornets will be the F/A-18E Super Hornet, the French Rafale, the Eurofighter Typhoon, and possibly the JAS-39E Gripen, with the Super Hornet being the clear incumbent.

Trudeau said this at a press conference on September 21st:

“The Conservative government never actually justified or explained why they felt Canada needed a fifth-generation fighter. They just talked about it like it was obvious. It was obvious, as we saw through the entire process, that they were particularly, and some might say unreasonably or unhealthily, attached to the F-35 aircraft.

The fact is we need an aircraft that’s going to meet Canada’s No. 1 priority, which is defending North American airspace, and there are a wide number of very credible, serious aircraft out there who can bid for that and be respectable and responsible replacements for the CF-18s instead of the F-35s.” The end of the Harper Administration in Canada and the start of a Trudeau Administration could be especially welcome news to Boeing’s Super Hornet program. Orders will be needed to keep the Super Hornet production line open into the 2020s. Replacing Canada’s roughly 75 aging CF-18 Hornets could mean close to a four year extension of production for Boeing’s St. Louis plant at Boeing’s stated minimum production rate of 24 Super Hornets per year.

Additional orders from other foreign countries could keep the line churning well into the next decade, but securing Canada’s order would take a lot of near-term pressure off the Super Hornet program.

Although the Super Hornet makes great sense for Canada, Trudeau has demanded an open and clear competition, during which the aforementioned fighter manufacturers will bring their latest and greatest options list for their already battle-proven jets. The Rafale in particular has become a very popular in the export market as of late. With many secure export orders in place, Canada could buy the French fighter with confidence. On the other hand, any European product will lack the commonality and ease of pilot and crew conversion, as well as the weapons integration synergy that the Super Hornet provides.

There is a good chance that Boeing will also offer the E/A-18G Growler electronic attack variant of the Super Hornet to Canada for a portion of their fighter buy. This would help offset some of operability and survivability in contested environments lost by abandoning the F-35. At the very least, new Super Hornets can be sold with Growler wiring so that they can be converted to the Growler configuration in the future if Canada wishes to do so.

Canada’s turning away from the F-35 could send ripples through the program and effect the decisions of other international customers who have yet to write a check for dozens of $110 million F-35 airframes that will cost far more than their older counterparts to operate. Many smaller air arms that use their fighters primarily for air defense and to occasionally aid in NATO operations may ask themselves: if Canada rationalized that the F-35 is unnecessary, maybe the same is true for us?

Like other F-35 partner countries, Canada produces components for the F-35 today. This business, which is stated to be worth $637 million, may become hard to sustain if Canada walks away from the program to purchase another fighter design. Yet any deal for another fighter type, especially one that is struggling for sales, will either be such a good direct value that the industrial offsets would be a non-factor, or manufacturers will offer their own offset packages that will also be highly lucrative. France in particular has been very bullish with offsets for large fighter orders.

It will be interesting to see an old-fashioned fighter competition right here in North America once again. After years of questionable motives, peculiar math and loads of political infighting, Canada will be able to evaluate each aircraft for their merits and in reflection of the Royal Canadian Air Force’s realistic needs.

May the best, or seemingly the most logical, fighter for Canada win.

Contact the author at Tyler@jalopnik.com.

Image credit: F-35- Lockheed, Super Hornet Advanced- Boeing, Rafale- French Ministry of Defense.


TOPICS: Canada; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: aerospace; canada; f35; rcaf
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Given Trudeau's spending priorities, guess it's going to be bad news for all possible vendors, not just Lockheed Martin.
1 posted on 10/20/2015 7:37:03 AM PDT by sukhoi-30mki
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To: sukhoi-30mki

Bring back the Avro Arrow.


2 posted on 10/20/2015 7:41:33 AM PDT by C19fan
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To: sukhoi-30mki
Just last month, Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau made it clear that he intends to scrap the F-35 program all together

Maybe some F-22's?..................

3 posted on 10/20/2015 7:42:39 AM PDT by Red Badger (READ MY LIPS: NO MORE BUSHES!...............)
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To: sukhoi-30mki

Trudeau will endeavour to buy whatever Charles DeGaulle flew.


4 posted on 10/20/2015 7:45:04 AM PDT by Blueflag (Res ipsa loquitur: non vehere est inermus)
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To: sukhoi-30mki

He will gut the military and use the money for Welfare.


5 posted on 10/20/2015 7:47:12 AM PDT by AppyPappy (If you really want to irritate someone, point out something obvious they are trying hard to ignore.)
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To: sukhoi-30mki

but it’s good news for Syrians ,he wants to bring in tons , he compares them to the Boat People ,the people that came to Canada before he was born . Oh ,and he better keep his hands off my Guns


6 posted on 10/20/2015 7:50:15 AM PDT by butlerweave
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To: AppyPappy

He will just plain abolish the armed forces of Canada! Right after he bans oil drilling and the Canadian Senate.

In hindsight, maybe Scott Walker was right about needing a fence on the Canadian border because I foresee a massive influx of them sneaking across the border when it all goes sour.


7 posted on 10/20/2015 7:50:34 AM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: sukhoi-30mki
We will immediately launch an open and transparent competition to replace the CF-18 fighter aircraft. The primary mission of our fighter aircraft should remain the defense of North America, not stealth first-strike capability.

In that case, he should just buy some old F-4 Phantoms and put a 1.5 G operational limit on them. There are very, very few aircraft that have the range to attack Canada from Europe or Asia and none of them are fighters. F-104s and F-106s are also good options. Not a lot of training will be required, so he can have them haul the mail as well.

I'll give Canada 20 years before it follows NZ and decides that it doesn't need a military at all. The evil U.S. will protect them.

8 posted on 10/20/2015 7:51:31 AM PDT by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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To: sukhoi-30mki

Liberals and especially the Trudeaus Hate the Military


9 posted on 10/20/2015 7:53:34 AM PDT by butlerweave
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To: VanDeKoik

I’m hoping he turns it into a Welfare state and all of our moochers go north.


10 posted on 10/20/2015 7:54:18 AM PDT by AppyPappy (If you really want to irritate someone, point out something obvious they are trying hard to ignore.)
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To: AppyPappy

We can be like some EU countries when it came to the “Syrians” and Shepard all of the poor Mexicans looking for welfare right on up into Canada!


11 posted on 10/20/2015 7:56:11 AM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: sukhoi-30mki

I don’t agree with JT (can’t even type his name) about much, but this is one positive that can result from the election. The F-35 is not the plane for Canada. Buy Super Hornets instead. They will be adequate to protect North American airspace.


12 posted on 10/20/2015 7:56:38 AM PDT by Former Proud Canadian
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To: SampleMan

After 9/11, Canada protected the United States while Alaska’s airceraft pulled CONUS CAP duties.


13 posted on 10/20/2015 7:57:57 AM PDT by Yo-Yo (Is the /Sarc tag necessary?)
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To: sukhoi-30mki
65 aircraft...

It will cause some disturbance in the force, but it's Canada's decision. They voted for this government.

But the real story here is the purported "open competition"...this means years of competition, arguing, bickering, bribing, etc. before a decision is ever arrived at, let alone taking delivery of new aircraft. In the meantime, Canada's military capability continues to degrade.

The guy is a socialist through and through...talk is cheap and that is about all socialists do when it comes to defense.

Godspeed good, conservative Canadians...I wish you the best in enduring the next few years.

14 posted on 10/20/2015 8:00:27 AM PDT by SZonian (Throwing our allegiances to political parties in the long run gave away our liberty.)
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To: sukhoi-30mki
65 aircraft...

It will cause some disturbance in the force, but it's Canada's decision. They voted for this government.

But the real story here is the purported "open competition"...this means years of competition, arguing, bickering, bribing, etc. before a decision is ever arrived at, let alone taking delivery of new aircraft. In the meantime, Canada's military capability continues to degrade.

The guy is a socialist through and through...talk is cheap and that is about all socialists do when it comes to defense.

Godspeed good, conservative Canadians...I wish you the best in enduring the next few years.

15 posted on 10/20/2015 8:00:28 AM PDT by SZonian (Throwing our allegiances to political parties in the long run gave away our liberty.)
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To: SZonian

Ungh, sorry for double post...


16 posted on 10/20/2015 8:01:53 AM PDT by SZonian (Throwing our allegiances to political parties in the long run gave away our liberty.)
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To: butlerweave

Watch the value of Loonies and Toonies to keeping down.


17 posted on 10/20/2015 8:04:25 AM PDT by Beagle8U (jeb! continues to not only step in it, but lie down and roll in it! - freedumb2003)
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To: sukhoi-30mki
Ending the F-35 program may hurt Lockheed, but Boeing would stand to make a LOT of money selling a potential successor to the F-18E Super Hornet, possibly with an uprated F404 engine and much of the avionics from the F-35. And both the Eurofighter consortium and Dassault will benefit because former F-35 customers will now seriously look at buying the Eurofighter Typhoon and the Dassault Rafale fighters.
18 posted on 10/20/2015 8:09:37 AM PDT by RayChuang88 (FairTax: America's economic cure)
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To: sukhoi-30mki

All of Trudeau’s promissory budget is committed to buying colored glass beads for Canadians. There will be no money used for Canada’s defence. Putin loves Trudeau and is preparing to walk in through Canada’s Northern gateway.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_Joint_Strategic_Command_(Russia)


19 posted on 10/20/2015 8:20:16 AM PDT by Candor7 (Obama fascism article:(http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/05/barack_obama_the_quintessentia_1.html))
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To: Yo-Yo
After 9/11, Canada protected the United States while Alaska’s airceraft pulled CONUS CAP duties.

Yep, landed at Normandy too. Times change.

20 posted on 10/20/2015 8:36:39 AM PDT by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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