Posted on 10/21/2015 7:05:10 AM PDT by Red Badger
PASADENA (CBSLA.com) — If scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena are correct, a moderately-sized earthquake is expected within the next two-and-a-half years.
JPL experts predict a possible 5.0 magnitude quake in Los Angeles, but say it very well could be stronger. JPL geophysicist Dr. Andrea Donnellan, along with seven other scientists, has been using radar and GPS to measure Southern California’s chances for a sizable earthquake, and has made a sobering hypothesis about another big one.
“When the La Habra earthquake happened, it was relieving some of that stress, and it actually shook some of the upper sediments in the LA basin and moved those a little bit more,” Dr. Donellan said.
However, according to Dr. Donnellan, those strains remain, with enough power to produce an even larger quake in the same epicenter in La Habra.
“There’s enough energy stored to produce about a magnitude 6.1 to 6.3 earthquake,” Dr. Donnellan described.
Dr. Donnellan and her team then proceeded to measure the probability of a similar quake for the entire 60-mile radius of the Los Angeles area. The results produced a shocking 99-percent chance of a magnitude 5.0 or greater in Los Angeles within three years.
Seismologists at the US Geological Survey have questioned that probability, suggesting it may in fact be slightly lower, stating: “…the accepted random chance of a (magnitude five) or greater in this area in three years is 85 percent, independent of the analysis in this paper.”
USGS uses different methods from radar and GPS, such as fault maps and models, to develop their results.
Regardless of the discrepancy in percentage, scientists agree that the probability of at least a moderate-sized earthquake in Los Angeles over the next three years is high.
“We all need to be prepared. That’s not new for LA.”
Not enough...: )
Needs to be in San Fransisco anyway....
2 yrs? Big deal. I think my dog could have made that prediction.
Let us know when they get it down to 2 months
Doesn’t SoCal get a >5.0 quake every couple of months?
That's what I thought. A 5.0 is a relatively small tremor in that area. 6.0 will get some attention, though.
I thought USGS was the expert earthquake people and that NASA was the Muslim outreach.
What a joke! 5.0 ‘s are yawners.
Looks like the same people who are predicting weather 100 years from now are also predicting earthquakes.
Probably trying to work a "global warming" angle on this. :)
Well, epicenter Hollyweird would be OK. Taking out the Kardashians would be worth 2 points on the Richter scale.
I rented it on-demand the other night. God, what a POS that was. Even the special effects were crap.
Daughter was freakin' hot though!
Duplicity AND duplication..................
“There’s enough energy stored to produce about a magnitude 6.1 to 6.3 earthquake,” Dr. Donnellan described.
Bush’s Fault?
And in other news; there will be snow in Buffalo, NY sometime this winter.
When you get up to 8, let me know.
Yawn.
I disagree. It was no great artistic triumph but I thoroughly enjoyed it. Saw it in the theater-twice. I thought the FX were fine.
My husband’s comment on San Andreas was when “the rock” was navigating a boat thru’ all the soggy debris, why was there no floating dead bodies? He loves gore with his disaster movies.
That and San Andreas’ Fault!...........................
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