Posted on 11/02/2015 1:27:11 PM PST by RoosterRedux
Good points. Thanks!
That may not be the case in 2017 - the Dems have a good chance to take the Senate back. And even if they don't they will still filibuster anything they don't like.
In truth the Dems have much more to lose from a government shutdown.
Not really, because most of the things that the Dems really care about continue to run during a "shutdown". There are actually very few things that get shut down. But the press will be on the side of the Dems, moaning about all of the poor that cannot get their welfare checks, the elderly that cannot get their Social Security checks, etc. Maybe Trump can withstand the negative press and outlast the Dems, but we have no way of knowing that, since he has never been in that position before.
The art of negotiating is knowing what the other guy wants. So I don’t think he is giving any leverage away. Trump is betting that they do not want a debate without him on stage, which I think is true. And the other candidates also want him on stage, they can’t gain supporters if nobody is listening to them so they need Trump to increase viewership. Plus, the other candidates have already showed their cards in the form of that letter. This puts Trump into a lot of leverage.
The open question I have is what does Trump want? You would think that a candidate in the lead would want fewer opportunities to make a gaffe. A large field of candidates is good for Trump because almost no message gets through. The less he talks the less likely he is to make a mistake - though he’s obviously not the type to worry about foot in mouth disease he just shrugs it off and powers on. Very rare for a candidate ever, its because of his independent wealth he doesn’t need to impress anyone and can just be himself. The other candidates can’t gain by taking shots at Trump, they need to climb up the polls and raise money so they really need to knock each other out. So this is also Trumps negotiating advantage. Trump is sucking so much oxygen out of the race that almost none of them can catch fire.
Trump has tactical advantage in how he gets to mock the candidates that are on the far ends because of their low support numbers, which probably helps keep them marginal - also benefit to Trump. If he is at 25% he just needs about 1 in 5 (rough guesstimate) of the other candidate’s supporters to break his way when their candidate drops out. (Consider that some of these supporters will have to switch support a second time when the 3rd round of candidates drop out, some more will break to Trump way cinching the lead). Carson, imo, is probably going to fade and feels to me he is intentionally deflating his campaign. I could be wrong and so far his numbers are strong. But if he does fade or drop out, his supporters are imo likely to go to Trump greater than 1 in 5, imo only, because they are already inclined to support an outsider.
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>> “Trump is betting that they do not want a debate without him on stage, which I think is true.” <<
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Obviously, since he is the guy they have been supporting for the last 6 months. He is who they are banking on to crush the conservatives hopes of winning the 2016 election.
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