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Posted on 12/10/2015 8:12:29 AM PST by Teacher317
There are reasons why Donald Trump will NOT be the GOP nominee, and they have little to do with the will of the voters.
(Disclaimer: I have been openly for Cruz, and continue to be so, but I have also openly admitted that if Cruz is not the GOP nominee, I will vote for Trump as GOP or 3rd Party... or else I write in Cruz.)
The problem, not surprisingly, is the GOP and the RNC. Back in 2014, they quietly changed the rules for the GOP Primaries. The TEA Party was surging, and the GOPe didn't want actual grassroots voters to mess up their cozy lives with actual support for American interests by the American people. So, in order to make sure that it was close to impossible for a popular TEA Party type to gain the nomination, they simply declared that ALL GOP Primaries held between March 1 and March 14 shall designate their delegate proportionally, and not "winner-takes-all". This starts with Super Tuesday, and includes TWENTY state GOP Primaries and Caucuses (Caucii?).
Now, some states have always been proportional, and some are still winner-take-all, but this new wrinkle does a lot more than you might expect.
Looking just at the numbers for the first 24 GOP Primaries/Caucuses that take place before March 15, we have:
FEB 1, Iowa:
For the first time, starting in 2016, the caucus site voting that was previously a non-binding poll becomes the binding method of selecting delegates. Acting in accordance with a mandate from the Republican National Committee, the delegates are bound to vote for candidates in proportion to the votes cast for each candidate at the caucus sites. (In 2012, Paul got 22 of the Iowa delegates to Mitt's 6)
Monmouth on MON had Cruz ahead at 24%, then Trump 19, Rubio 17, Carson 13... that's 6 delegates for Trump, of 28
Monmouth poll MON DEC 7
Also: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/nov/17/donald-trump-seen-unlikely-to-win-in-iowa-despite-/?page=all
FEB 9, New Hampshire (proportional)
Always vastly different, and allows ANYONE on the ballot, if they pay the $1000 fee. There were 33 in 2016!
Most recent poll, Trump 32%, Rubio 14% (up 5 points), Christie 9%, Bush 8%, Kasich 7%, Cruz 6%, Fiorina and Carson at 5%.. That's 10 of 29 delegates for Trump.
CNN NH poll, DEC 8
FEB 20, South Carolina (winner Take All:
Trump ahead, 24% to Cruz at 16... That's fifty delegates to Trump.
FEB 23 Nevada (Proportional):
Trump at 38 pct, 34 GOP delegates... 14 of 34 for Trump...
Now the next TWENTY states and their all-proportional Primaries begin. Since I don't want to look up 20 more polls, let's just use yesterday's CBS polling numbers (Trump 27, Cruz 17)... Even giving Trump 57 percent of the delegates for the first four states (thanks to the winner-takes-all in big SC), after the next 20 states between MAR 1 and MAR 14, he now has only about 30 percent of the GOP delegates after 24 of the 50 Primaries. This means that he must take about 70 percent of the remaining delegates, AND finish with over fifty percent in at least SEVEN of the last 26 Primaries, or else he is not qualified to be on the GOP ballot, and the GOP and RNC get to dive in and drive the winner to the finish line. Add in unfaithful electors and you can really start to see why Trump may be the top candidate in the most states, and STILL not get the GOP nod... which is why I think he has suddenly started talking again about being treated "fairly" by the GOP or else possibly going 3rd Party.
Tuesday, March 1 (Super Tuesday)
Alabama, Alaska (GOP), Arkansas, Colorado caucuses, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota caucuses, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia
Saturday, March 5
Kansas caucus, Kentucky (GOP caucus), Louisiana
Tuesday, March 8
Hawaii caucus (GOP), Idaho (GOP), Mississippi, Michigan
Sunday, March 13
Puerto Rico (GOP)
Then: Tuesday, March 15
Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio... and Jeb's FL, magically one day after the cut-off
This is the formula for Constitutional Crisis.
This is a plausible scenario to deny Trump the Presidency, even if he wins 49% of the electoral vote. (Bill Clinton actually won with 42%).
The GOP House could install Jeb Bush or Mitt Romney no matter how distantly they finished in third. An insurrection would follow.
And clearly, if it goes that far and the gOpE attempt to control the results is obvious, a breakaway Third Party bid is all but certain.
This all starts in just 10 weeks... and Iowa is only 7 weeks away.
Trump and Cruz will divide about 40% of the delegates voting in the Republican convention. The remaining 60% will consolidate either before or shortly after the start of the convention on an establishment candidate (Probably Rubio). I know many of you don’t want to hear that, but the pure math and pragmatic politics will prevail.
Exactly.
The RNC won’t have the balls to go against Trump. They will cave very quickly. Caving is what they do best. Just ask Obama.
Most states in the northeast are winner takes all. Trump will win all the delegates he needs.
Trump is polling at 30-35%. Cruz at 15-18%. Your statement means you believe that they will drop between here and February. I’m interested to hear why you think that will happen.
Here’s my question to everyone here. Have we passed the point where voters matter at all? If the GOPe pulls some crap and gets their guy in, what have they lost. They don’t rely on small contributions anymore, it’s all the big donors and all those donors want is influence no matter how the get there.
So IMHO there’s really nothing stopping the GOP from sabotaging Trump even against the will of the people. If they get their guy, they’re golden, if it’s Hillary, even better.
Tell me where I’m wrong.
At this point in the campaign, it’s too much like long-range weather forecasting to say what could happen at the convention. One thing is for sure though: the GOPe have just been waiting for Trump to implode. Their problem is that he’s simply not going to accommodate them. To knock him out, he’s going to have to be beaten, and Cruz is playing a very, very smart strategy and still my dark horse favorite, which is where you want to be as a candidate at this stage.
We’ll know after Florida. Until then, it’s all speculation.
Trump and Cruz and the anti-Establishment (Carson) votes comfortably total more than 50%.
Brokered convention. It’ll depend who falls out, and when.
Rove doesn’t have the brass to pull off anything too obvious and I’m not seeing Trumps lead diminishing to the point where fraud could explained away.
These are the type of shenanigans that Trump alluded to when he said he could consider as 3rd party run. At this point, I wonder if the death of the GOP that would result would be all that bad a thing?
Trump is more than likely to run the table. He will be a clear winner and get the nomination.
“Why Trump will NOT be the GOP nominee”
Just another premature journalistic ejaculation.
The long knives for Trump are working overtime....fact check every thing they say Trump says....the waters are being muddled so fast you have trouble keeping up with the misinformation - disinformation.....Trump is lifting the Political Correct Veil from real issues facing America...he is showing enormous courage in the face of politicians and lobbyists who don’t want their way of life changed...with no regard to Americans. Stop Trump and you stop a better America with less corruption.....this Nation is almost as corrupt politically and financially as our Southern neighbor.
Did not Trump say he would stay Republican PROVIDING the rinos did NOT cut him out of the herd should he come out on top? IF the rinos try that, I would bet Crus and Trump will band together and run as independents. High possibility that voters will jump the rino ship and go for those two.
Will that be the Death of the Republican party? Most likely, should that happen.
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