Posted on 01/04/2016 7:48:55 PM PST by VinL
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz's growing support among California's hard-core conservatives and evangelical voters has pushed him out in front of Donald Trump among likely voters in the state’s June 7 Republican presidential primary, a new Field Poll shows.
While Cruz's 25 to 23 percent lead over the billionaire businessman is a statistical tie, the freshman senator's position is stronger since plenty of California Republicans are scared to death of seeing Trump as their party's nominee.
In a state where 28 percent of likely Republican voters say they'd be "upset" if Trump was on the ballot come November, "Trump doesn't have much room for growth," said Mark DiCamillo, the poll's director. "He has his support, but there's an upper limit."
Trump and Cruz are running well ahead of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who at 13 percent is the only other candidate polling in double digits. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who led the state polls in February and May, mirrored his slide in the national polls and saw his California support slip to 4 percent, down from 8 percent in October and 16 percent in February.
Bad news for Bush
Even worse, 58 percent of likely GOP voters have an unfavorable opinion of Bush, and 55 percent would be either dissatisfied or upset to see him as the nominee.
“Even in the party, (Bush) doesn’t stand up well,†DiCamillo said. “It’s hard to see how he regains his footing.â€
The new poll is “a snapshot of a very dynamic process,†and changes are going to continue, he added. But the numbers behind the horse race show just how narrow a path to victory Trump, who has been the national front-runner for months, has in California.
Trump, for example, is the second choice for only about 11 percent of likely Republican voters, compared with 22 percent for Cruz, 14 percent for Rubio and 8 percent for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and businesswoman Carly Fiorina.
Only 51 percent of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Trump, compared with 69 percent for Cruz, 61 percent for Rubio, 60 percent for neurosurgeon Ben Carson and 52 percent for Christie. Trump’s 45 percent unfavorable rating is topped only by Bush’s.Typically, it’s much more difficult to change people’s minds if they already are opposed to you,†DiCamillo said.
That ability to gather new support is likely to be a deal changer by the time Californians go to the polls at what will be the tail end of a long, hard-fought GOP primary season. With delegate selection opening with the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 1, the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 9, the South Carolina primary on Feb. 27 and then a full slate of primaries in early March and beyond, the number of hopefuls in the GOP race, which stands now at 11, probably will be trimmed considerably by June 7.
And as each candidate fades or drops out, his or her support will be divvied up among those still in the race, with those suddenly bereft voters moving to their newfound favorites.
Cruz rises as others fall
That’s already happening in California, where Cruz saw his support leap from sixth place — at 6 percent — in October to first place at 25 percent now, thanks in part to falling support for Carson (15 to 9 percent), Fiorina (13 to 3 percent) and Bush.
“This poll could be a harbinger of what will happen by the time the California primary comes around,†DiCamillo said. “And Trump’s strength seems very thin.â€
Trump’s support in California rose from 17 percent in October to 23 percent now, while Rubio’s support rose from 10 to 13 percent.
Cruz’s strength is among the strongly conservative voters who make up 53 percent of California’s likely GOP voters and self-identified evangelicals, who are 42 percent of the Republican electorate. While he holds a 33 to 28 percent lead over Trump among those conservatives, that widens to a 29 to 18 percent margin with evangelicals.
Cruz also leads among younger Republicans, with Trump the favorite of Republicans over 50.
Rubio ‘in strong position’
While Rubio is well behind the top two, he is running stronger among more moderate Republicans, putting him in a position to compete for the same voters as Christie and Bush.
“Rubio is in a strong position for movement and, overall, is not doing that badly,†DiCamillo said.
“The race is certainly in flux, and I’m certainly not saying anything is hard and fast,†he added.
The poll is based on a telephone survey taken between Dec. 16 and Jan. 3 of 1,003 registered voters, including 325 Republicans considered likely to vote in the state’s presidential primary. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.
Must be an outlier-- Trump 45% unfavorable?
Everyone I talk to in CA is voting Trump including Union neighbors. Don’t know who they’re polling.
Tonight in Mass like every other night when Trump has a rally.
IMHO, they are studying the pollsters...again..
“Stymying” GG spellchecker..
Trump 45% unfavorable?
*****************************
If the poll is actually showing that then it makes the poll somewhat suspect IMHO. I think that pure “telephone” polls are becoming increasingly unreliable. Trump’s unfavorables, whatever they are, will decrease once HIS campaign and advertising hits its stride. Right now, the picture most folks get of Trump are from the mainstream media which hates him. Bottom line, this will change.
I am in Silicon Valley, everyone I know are for Trump, majority say Cruz is a Govt shut down guy. Big No for everyone.
Must be I’m just typical. I’m a CA voter for Cruz.
And I’m afraid of Trump. I don’t think he can beat Hillary
and not just because of the head-to-head polls.
In debates the other Rep. candidates have let him pass on his lack
of deep knowledge on issues. Hillary will not and like it
or not she does have knowledge.
Also, he is not Conservative on enough issues or is sketchy
on some and who knows where he will come down on them.
You live in a bubble, most of CA is not like Silicon valley...lots of red CA.
I am for Trump but I would happily vote for Cruz . A Trump-Cruz ticket is my dream ticket . Ido not think that there could be a Cruz-Trump ticket , asTrump sits second saddle to none . Only the Presidency itself would be worth departing the lifestyle he already leads . Can’t as I blame him a bit . I would LOVE to see Melania as our 1st Lady . A return to class , at last !
No more gutter snipes in the White House !
{”am in Silicon Valley, everyone I know are for Trump, majority say Cruz is a Govt shut down guy. Big No for everyone.”}
You hang with a fairly uninformed crowd.
California is nearly the last to vote in the primaries.
The race will be LONG over before then. In fact, it will be over after Florida.
California has a Repub primary? Who knew?
My bubble is big chunk of population.
Like me , we opted to registered as Independent. In GOP primary , I can’t vote. But will be a force in Gen election. Cruz will lose Gen hands down. But Trump can win.
California has a total of 172 delegates or roughly 10% of the amount required to lock in the nomination. It is also a closed primary which in my opinion works against Trump. It is also a winner take all state.
So, Cruz polling ahead of Trump is of significant interest but be cautious about calling California yet. It is still a ways off and the polling is still very close.
Trump usually has a high unfavorable number in polling. I remember one trump and Hill both were at 57% unfavorable.
There is only one candidate moving up lately.
“Trump doesn’t have much room for growth,” said Mark DiCamillo, the poll’s director. “He has his support, but there’s an upper limit.”
where have I heard this before?
Californicate is a political waste land. It means nothing. Cruz will not get the nomination as a matter of LAW. Trump will be the next president. Take that to the bank and get over it. This is the greatest American since George Washington. — EASY!
Geee, that's really scientific right there. Ok well take your “poll” over the scientific poll conducted by a bona fide polling outfit. Happy?
This is BIG, if true!
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