Skip to comments.A key US economic indicator is on an ugly streak that has never occurred outside a recession
Posted on 01/19/2016 1:44:56 PM PST by Nachum
There has been increasing focus on the US economy's probability of heading into a recession.
According to John Hussman of Hussman Funds, it's not just probable; it's nearly guaranteed.
"Since October, the economic evidence has shifted from supporting a growing risk of recession, to a guarded expectation of recession, to the present conclusion that a US recession is not only a risk but an imminent likelihood, awaiting confirmation that typically only emerges after a recession is actually in progress," Hussman said in a post Monday.
His key piece of evidence stems from Friday's US report on industrial production. The data was disappointing, missing expectations and indicating that the sector is in contraction. Hussman also suggested there was more to it than just the headline disappointment. Here's his analysis:
"Industrial production has now also declined on a year-over-year basis. The weakness we presently observe is strongly associated with recession. The chart below (h/t Jeff Wilson) plots the cumulative number of month-over-month declines in Industrial Production during the preceding 12-month period, in data since 1919. Recessions are shaded. The current total of 10 (of a possible 12) month-over-month declines in Industrial Production has never been observed except in the context of a U.S. recession. Historically, as Dick Van Patten would say, eight is enough."
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
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Can you have a recession inside of a depression?
The Great Obama Recession never ended.
John Hussman has been bearish since 2008. I ignore him.
The Obama/Hillary Great Recession. Even low information voters get mad when they can’t find work or don’t get raises.
I, too, thought these last 7 or 8 years, we have been in a depression. It has been papered over with a lot of government money. Otherwise it would all have looked like the thirties. And of course the money won’t last forever.
Can you have a recession inside of a depression inside of another depression?
If you like your economy, you can keep your economy— Barack Obama, 2016 State of the Union speech.
This is very likely just evidence that the official statistics that indicated the end of the recession were at best based on assumptions that became faulty in the regime of reduced labor force participation and inflation-without-price-or-wage-inflation created by the creative forms of “quantitative easing”, and at worst are outright lies, rather than an indicator of a new downturn.
We are in a long-term economic decline.
We are to China what Great Britain was to the US in the 1920’s, still a significant economy, but no longer the top dog.
We can not run on economy on health care. Health care is like taking in each others’ dirty laundry.
We really don’t do a lot of really productive things anymore.
I was watching the Korean news over the weekend. Korean President Park Gun-hae’s government has realized that the recession is already here, and she has made it a priority for her government to counter it by calling for increased assistance to Korean businesses and technology. She’s been making speeches about it to the National Assembly and others the past few days. They see it as an opportunity to advance their country as others may falter. Her latest speech said the Korean people will hold the assembly responsible if they don’t take strong steps to fight against a recession.
Meanwhile, in Obama’s America, he completely denies that there is anything wrong. And this is why, boys and girls, America is getting pounded over and over again. A government that simply ignores reality and does nothing to honestly try to correct problems (such as assisting business, reducing taxes and regulation, etc.). Instead, we are told we have to worry about global warming and white privilege as the core problems of America.
P.S. By the way, President Park works her butt off compared to lazy-ass Obama.
Yes, there is no such thing as a jobless recovery.
‘I, too, thought these last 7 or 8 years, we have been in a depression. It has been papered over with a lot of government money. Otherwise it would all have looked like the thirties. And of course the money wonât last forever.’
If it was real money it would not last forever but since it is false money it can be inflated on and on till no one will take it. That is the problem with money backed by nothing, sooner or later the people catch on. Pay off your bills and stock up on the things you must have including land, food, ammo, and weapons. We are going to have a rough row to hoe.
Production had largely recovered by 1937, but unemployment still remained very high, very similar to now.
Yea, w/o all the $$$ pumping into the markets, it certainly would have looked like the 30’s.
Now, the chickens are comin home to roost. Now what's feds gonna do? Print more money? Lower interest rates?
Good grief, the monumental fiscal mismanagement is astounding.
We still make a lot of stuff-- I was amazed to read in a German paper that (if I recall correctly) the US was the world's top exporter of machinery in the 3rd quarter of 2015, surpassing China, Germany and Japan.
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