Posted on 02/16/2016 6:16:51 PM PST by usafa92
CNN poll was taken mostly before the debate, and has a small sample on the one day after the debate. ARG has a MOE of 5 points also, so Cruz could be as high as 19, which would be in line with the other poll showing Cruz and Rubio tied post-debate. ARG was pretty close with Trump in New Hampshire, and one point off on Cruz's numbers, though their last poll I think was either just before or not long after the debate, so they were wrong with Rubio.
The Cruz club will have to spam the same 4 stories on FR early tomorrow extra hard over this one.
Good thing for Trump that CNN poll only had one day after the debate, or the results would have been a lot worse for him. According to the internals, Trump was running at 40% before the debate - he dropped to 31 % the day after.
Sample is very small on the last day (and only 400 polled in total) and is normal variation in with such a sample size. Trump up in 4 other post-debate polls.
As Rush will again remind us tomorrow, the polls are all over the place and the secret Rove poll is the most accurate.
Oh my.
Trump is crushing every one of them.
I LOVE THIS. That is a beautiful sight if true. I could not ask for better results.
“As Rush will again remind us tomorrow, the polls are all over the place and the secret Rove poll is the most accurate”
—The polls aren’t all over the place, but Rush is definitely running in circles. When he made that statement today then repeated that non-existent Bush camp “poll”, after all the other polls that came out and were fairly consistent, was the moment I knew Rush had finally lost his mind and credibility
Latest poll, TRUMP LOSING BY 2 TO 1 MARGIN. Donald Trump could only muster 33% of the vote, leaving him losing to everyone else by a 2 to 1 margin. Authorities warn of impending chaos, heavy winds and rampant lawsuits.
“I have no doubt Trump will be a very liberal President and nominate liberal judges.”
The two judges he has suggested are far from liberal
I don’t put my faith in any one poll, but if Cruz comes in behind Rubio and Kasich in SC on election day he’s got some real problems.
Trump really needs to get his numbers up to 45% to secure himself the nomination... I suspect he will, but the longer it takes him to get there, the more likely you wind up with an establishment candidate winning by plurality.
Saturday will be interesting, and Mar 1 will be really telling. Nevada Caucus is another place where Trump probably is at a disadvantage, and someone may win... but Mar 1, will really be a strong barometer of where this race is going.
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